Arcia to First & 2015 Opening Day

[DakotaTwins]

Where has been the talk of moving Arcia to first base? This seems like a very logical move for the future, given he's a terrible defender in the OF and there isn't really a true prospect coming up the pipeline (I'm not a big Vargas fan).

 

After Arcia moves to 1B, then you can look at moving Rosario back to the OF. A future OF of Hicks, Buxton and Rosario seems appealing.

 

2015 Opening Day:

C-Mauer

1B-Arcia

2B-Dozier

3B-Sano

SS-Florimon

OF-Hicks, Buxton, Rosario

DH-Plouffe (if he's still around)

 

A rotation of Meyer, May, Gibson, Worley, and a mid-season call-up of Stewart.

 

I'm loving the future!!

[Mike Sixel]

I've suggested it way too often....my biggest doubt is that Mauer will be moving to 1B by then, I'd guess, and then you have a bottle neck. I'd guess Arcia and Hicks split time in RF, with Arcia at DH and 1B also. But that is totally a guess.

 

I remain hopeful on Dozier, but I'm not ready to kick aside a top 50 prospect for him just yet.....I think we will all know more after 2-3 months next year.

 

Good thread, post, btw.

[Willihammer]

Hopeful on Dozier? He's the 2nd best 2B in baseball since June 1.

 

I think Arcia is fine in RF. Yeah he will bungle a few plays but this team needs bats more than defense IMO.

[Steve Penz]

I wish the pitching was going to move up as quickly as you project. Arcia to 1B may not be so simple. I believe he has played OF his whole career and the jump to 1B may not be as easy as you think. Let me hit on Rosario and I am not going to let this one go. Moving him back to the OF now is crazy. They have 2+ years invested in him at 2B and they need to let that work itself out. IF Dozier comes back next year and is still the Dozier we know now and IF Rosario is killing AAA then you have to make some room and that is an awesome problem. I see no reason why that won't happen and IMO at that point you use one to acquire pitching. Pretty soon the Twins are going to need to trade prospects for pitching if a real championship team is ever going to happen.

[stringer bell]

Waaay too early to rule out Arcia from the outfield. I'll agree that he hasn't been good out there but he has the skills (range & arm) to be decent or better and short 1Bs always bother me. Arcia can't be more than 6'0" can he? Let's get Oswaldo hitting again or he's a candidate to go back to Rochester to start 2014.

[Physics Guy]

He is Kubel from a couple years ago. Plays in RF/LF occasionally, destined to be a DH more often.

[Rosterman]

The Plouffe question, as will be the Dozier question (where did the power come from and will it stay) will rotate around cost. If the DH is a free agent-type role. Or do you pay Plouffe in 2015 $5-7 million to be that player, who can also play other positions. Like the pitching, the Twins will weigh service time like crazy as they don't want every main roster player to arbitrate at the same time or become a free agent at the same time, unless they DO have the strength in the minors to cause them to move some players every three years. I also think KEPLER will part of some mix, and they do need someone other than Florimon at shortstop to make 2015 work. I would also like to assume that besides signing a BIG BAT, they would also get a top of the rotation starter in the $100 million contract range, since everyone playing in 2015 would be making minimum or close to it for four years.

[DaveW]

Arcia will be fine in RF, putting him at first base is a waste.

[Mike Sixel]

Hopeful on Dozier? He's the 2nd best 2B in baseball since June 1.

 

I think Arcia is fine in RF. Yeah he will bungle a few plays but this team needs bats more than defense IMO.

 

why is it unreasonable to want more than 3 months of data before drawing some sort of conclusion? Delmon Young had stretches like that....as have many players. I remain hopeful this is who Dozier is, but I, personally, am not yet convinced.

 

To the question on Arcia, I agree, i would not move him yet, but I'd rather have Hicks in RF and someone else in LF that can play defense, and have Arcia in Dh/RF.....given the quality of pitching this team will pay for, I want elite OF defense.

[Mike Sixel]

Arcia will be fine in RF, putting him at first base is a waste.

 

Why is it a waste?

[Willihammer]

why is it unreasonable to want more than 3 months of data before drawing some sort of conclusion?

 

Its not unreasonable. But I'm not open to trading Dozier for prospects, owing to the fact that he is only 25 is one of the few Twins prospects to demonstrate actual success in the MLB (even if its only 3 months worth).

 

Given the Twins batting average on prospects this year, I don't understand why people remain so adament about moving established (or establish-ing) MLB talents for more prospects. If anything, the Twins ought to consider doing the opposite.

[Winston Smith]

If Mauer isn't the full time 1st baseman by then he is sitting at home after getting one to many foul balls off the mask. At that point you have an entire new set of problems.

 

If Rosario proves he can play and Dozier is still playing well Dozier should beable to play third.

 

Unless Plouffe really turns things around, and its hard to think he will suddenly become a good fielder anywhere, he will be gone after next year or sooner going the way of Valencia/Young.

[ericchri]

Have to agree with stringer bell above, he seems awful short to really be your ideal 1B. Plouffe especially and Florimon (and Sano soon) would certainly benefit from a bigger target to throw to.

 

I know Arcia doesn't appear to be a great fielder, but considering what we've been running out in LF for the most part of late (Willingham, Delmon Young) he's certainly no downgrade over the last half dozen years of left field play. He's quick enough with a good enough arm to eventually settle in as being near average, I would think, especially with Buxton playing next to him. I would expect Rosario could move to left field easily enough if it became warranted, but it wouldn't be my first choice, and I wouldn't make that move until absolutely necessary, which it isn't yet.

 

I think Seth mentioned he's a much better right fielder as that's where he's predominantly played, but I would think his future is in left with the assumption Hicks sticks around and becomes a legitimate starter in the majors. With the assumption Hicks gets himself sorted out, he has to be the presumed Right Fielder when Buxton moves up, doesn't he? With his arm it would seem strange to put him in left. If they all become good players, you have to believe at least one of Hicks, Arcia, Rosario, or Dozier gets traded to make room for everyone else. That's a big if, but they all look to have talent if they can put it together.

[diehardtwinsfan]

There's a couple of issues here, and I'm not sure this is ready to be answered beginning in 2014.

 

Let's assume for a second that Dozier's improvement is for really and we have an .800 OPS GG 2B in him. Let's also assume that Rosario continues to destroy minor league pitching and gets a shot sometime next year and proves he can OPS in the .800 to .900 range with defense that isn't as good as Dozier's. What do you do?

 

The big problem I see is figuring out who in the next wave will be useful. Pinto, Plouffe, Parmelee, and Presley will all be vying in some ways for long term PT in the OF, 1B, and DH. Then of course there's this Mauer guy who is going to get some regular PT there when he's not catching. Shifting Arcia there now could potentially impede us from figuring out which of these guys is going to be worth anything long term.

 

In the long term, there's a second question to ask. This is obvious if someone works out at first, but if none of these guys do, what makes more sense? Shift Arcia to 1st and move Rosario back into the OF, or use FA to get a reasonably priced .800 OPS 1B (shoudln't be too difficult) and trade one of Rosario or Dozier for impact pitching?

 

I think that going to depend on how things play out in 2014/15 timeframe as this team gets good again. I don't see it as an option for right now.

[Mr. Brooks]

If Mauer isn't the full time 1st baseman by then he is sitting at home after getting one to many foul balls off the mask. At that point you have an entire new set of problems.

 

If Rosario proves he can play and Dozier is still playing well Dozier should beable to play third.

Unless Plouffe really turns things around, and its hard to think he will suddenly become a good fielder anywhere, he will be gone after next year or sooner going the way of Valencia/Young.

 

And where does Sano play?

[Seth Stohs]

Arcia will be fine in RF, putting him at first base is a waste.

 

Agreed... not yet. Not any time soon.

[Mr. Brooks]

Have to agree with stringer bell above, he seems awful short to really be your ideal 1B. Plouffe especially and Florimon (and Sano soon) would certainly benefit from a bigger target to throw to.

 

I know Arcia doesn't appear to be a great fielder, but considering what we've been running out in LF for the most part of late (Willingham, Delmon Young) he's certainly no downgrade over the last half dozen years of left field play. He's quick enough with a good enough arm to eventually settle in as being near average, I would think, especially with Buxton playing next to him. I would expect Rosario could move to left field easily enough if it became warranted, but it wouldn't be my first choice, and I wouldn't make that move until absolutely necessary, which it isn't yet.

 

I think Seth mentioned he's a much better right fielder as that's where he's predominantly played, but I would think his future is in left with the assumption Hicks sticks around and becomes a legitimate starter in the majors. With the assumption Hicks gets himself sorted out, he has to be the presumed Right Fielder when Buxton moves up, doesn't he? With his arm it would seem strange to put him in left. If they all become good players, you have to believe at least one of Hicks, Arcia, Rosario, or Dozier gets traded to make room for everyone else. That's a big if, but they all look to have talent if they can put it together.

 

Arm strength is a bit overrated IMO. Not in the sense that it doesn't have value, but in the sense that range should override arm strength, IMO.

Left field plays much bigger than right field at Target Field, and left field will also get more chances than right field against most lineups (more RH hitters than LH hitters).

To me, Hicks range has more value in LF than his arm does in RF. Plus, it's not like Arcia has a noodle. No, it's not as strong as Hicks, but it's capable for RF.

[ThePuck]

Why is it a waste?

 

because of the extreme athleticism and capability he's shown in the OF so far would be wasted at 1B...

[Mike Sixel]

Its not unreasonable. But I'm not open to trading Dozier for prospects, owing to the fact that he is only 25 is one of the few Twins prospects to demonstrate actual success in the MLB (even if its only 3 months worth).

 

Given the Twins batting average on prospects this year, I don't understand why people remain so adament about moving established (or establish-ing) MLB talents for more prospects. If anything, the Twins ought to consider doing the opposite.

 

You seem to be arguing against a point no one has made in this thread.

[Seth Stohs]

Arm strength is a bit overrated IMO. Not in the sense that it doesn't have value, but in the sense that range should override arm strength, IMO.

Left field plays much bigger than right field at Target Field, and left field will also get more chances than right field against most lineups (more RH hitters than LH hitters).

To me, Hicks range has more value in LF than his arm does in RF. Plus, it's not like Arcia has a noodle. No, it's not as strong as Hicks, but it's capable for RF.

 

I agree that LF and LCF is so big that I would value Hicks's range (along with Buxton) out there more than what his RF arm is. The reason for wanting a strong arm in RF is the throw to 3B. Arcia has plenty of arm for that. Hicks, Buxton and Arcia all throw well, so at that point, the range factors much more into my thinking.

[Steve Penz]

Overall I think who plays first is far down the list right now. Pitching and SS are more important. I hope that Colabello gets a lot of reps before the end of this year so the FO has a better idea about him going into next year.

[ericchri]

Arm strength is a bit overrated IMO. Not in the sense that it doesn't have value, but in the sense that range should override arm strength, IMO.

Left field plays much bigger than right field at Target Field, and left field will also get more chances than right field against most lineups (more RH hitters than LH hitters).

To me, Hicks range has more value in LF than his arm does in RF. Plus, it's not like Arcia has a noodle. No, it's not as strong as Hicks, but it's capable for RF.

 

You're probably right, the dimensions of Target Field are a little funky. I guess I do wonder a little bit who'd be better suited to chasing down balls that bounce off the limestone, though. With Buxton in the middle, the range factor gets dimmed a touch. In the end I suspect it wouldn't matter much who played which corner, so if Arcia is more comfortable in right, so be it. I just love watching some of those rocket throws you'll occasionally see from right to get guys out at 3rd.

[Thegrin]

Colabello is a short term answer at 1B and Parmalee a longer term answer. Let them platoon in 2014 and let Parmalee have it alone in 2015. By then, if Parmalee can't hack it, Vargas and Hicks will be ready or we can have this conversation about moving Sano to 1B.

[stringer bell]

Regarding LF-RF, there is a big left field at TF and having the guy with superior range (Hicks) play there isn't a total waste. Alex Gordon has a great arm and has settled in left (and won deserved Gold Gloves) so I have no problem if it shakes out with Hicks as a regular LF. It's not nearly as ridiculous as playing Ben Revere in right.

[ThePuck]

Last year, Revere posted a 15.4 UZR in RF. Only two other RF in baseball rated better. No RF had a better UZR/150. Revere had 11 DRS in RF last year. Only 3 RF in baseball had more....and they all had at least 400 more innings played out there.

 

He did pretty darn well out there for us.

[Winston Smith]

And where does Sano play?

 

My guess is a few games at 1st and 3rd and most at dh. If his defense improves to the point he can play 3b and not hurt the team you have a good thing too many good players.

[nicksaviking]

I like Arcia in the outfield, I don't need Gold Glovers the corner spots if the CF is rangy. If he shows diminished skills over the years then I say move him but he's too young to give up on. If the outfield gets crowded by offensive talent then it's time to discuss a move, but Buxton and Kepler are still a ways out and Kepler may get the 1B gig anyway. Moving Arcia to 1B and Rosario to the OF seems to take away positional value to me.

[Willihammer]

You seem to be arguing against a point no one has made in this thread.

 

I misread your post. I thought you described a Dozier for top 50 prospect trade, didn't realize you were talking about Rosario (is he a top 50 spec?)

 

In any case, the Twins are in a similar spot at 2B that they were in last year with CF: a young guy recently broken into the league finding his legs is backed up by a promising AA talent. You can either get rid of the young, fairly established MLB guy and risk the AA guy bombing (as Hicks did), or you can trade the AA guy while he still has some guaranteed value. Or you can keep both but have redundancy on your roster if the spec works out.

[Rick Blaine]

Its not unreasonable. But I'm not open to trading Dozier for prospects, owing to the fact that he is only 25 is one of the few Twins prospects to demonstrate actual success in the MLB (even if its only 3 months worth).

 

Given the Twins batting average on prospects this year, I don't understand why people remain so adament about moving established (or establish-ing) MLB talents for more prospects. If anything, the Twins ought to consider doing the opposite.

 

 

Dozier is 26. Born May 15, 1987.

[Steve Penz]

I misread your post. I thought you described a Dozier for top 50 prospect trade, didn't realize you were talking about Rosario (is he a top 50 spec?)

 

In any case, the Twins are in a similar spot at 2B that they were in last year with CF: a young guy recently broken into the league finding his legs is backed up by a promising AA talent. You can either get rid of the young, fairly established MLB guy and risk the AA guy bombing (as Hicks did), or you can trade the AA guy while he still has some guaranteed value. Or you can keep both but have redundancy on your roster if the spec works out.

 

It would be so sweet if both worked out and therefore one could be moved at the first trade deadline in 2014.