Which Young Twins Should Get an Extension This Winter?

[DJL44]

Comps for Walker Jenkins

Julio Rodriguez 12 years $209M

Jackson Merrill 9 years $135M

Roman Anthony 8 years $130M

Pete Crow Armstrong 6 years $115M

Corbin Carroll 8 years $111M

$14-17M in average annual value.

Offer him the Jackson Merrill deal and call it good.

[The Great Hambino]

5 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

The NHL does it right.  Based on the age you're drafted the team is given a certain number of fixed years of control before restricted free agency happens.

The MLBPA would be fools not to be pushing for something like that.

I've been advocating for something like this.  I can't stand service time manipulation that teams pull - it's intentionally not putting your best team out on the field.   Going the age-based route for free agency eligibility eliminates many of the reasons teams pull this type of stuff.

As long as free agency is tied to service time, there will be incentive for teams to manipulate it.  So instead of trying to craft rules around it (there will always be a loophole to exploit), just divorce it from free agency eligibility completely

[TheLeviathan]

34 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

I've been advocating for something like this.  I can't stand service time manipulation that teams pull - it's intentionally not putting your best team out on the field.   Going the age-based route for free agency eligibility eliminates many of the reasons teams pull this type of stuff.

As long as free agency is tied to service time, there will be incentive for teams to manipulate it.  So instead of trying to craft rules around it (there will always be a loophole to exploit), just divorce it from free agency eligibility completely

When the NHL adopted a salary cap it was one of the main components that they got in return.  As a result I imagine most long-time NHL players will get multiple FA deals in their career.  In MLB it seems like guys get one unless they have some ironman career ala Verlander.

[Coach]

5 hours ago, NYCTK said:

I can go sit behind home plate in one of the most expensive metro areas in the world for about $400 ($200 with bad weather) with white glove service and all you can eat and drink inclusive. It's a different product completely. 

If you actually compare apples to apples, tickets haven't grown much faster than inflation. Which you know because I pointed this out last time you starting complaining about ticket prices and how overpaid the players are.

It's good to be you.

[Coach]

5 hours ago, NYCTK said:

I can go sit behind home plate in one of the most expensive metro areas in the world for about $400 ($200 with bad weather) with white glove service and all you can eat and drink inclusive. It's a different product completely. 

If you actually compare apples to apples, tickets haven't grown much faster than inflation. Which you know because I pointed this out last time you starting complaining about ticket prices and how overpaid the players are.

It's good to be you.

[DJL44]

What does a Keaschall extension look like?

Comps

Lawrence Butler 7 years $65.5M

Michael Harris II 8 years $72M

Ke’Bryan Hayes 8 years $70M

Myles Straw 5 years $25M

Luis Lara 7 years $31M

Somewhere between 5 and 9 million for 5-7 years.

Keaschall is a Super 2 so he gets four rounds of arbitration. Guessing 2/5/9/16 for a total of $33M if they go year to year. I would offer Keaschall 6 years $45M with an $20M team option. 

 

[killercarewoliva]

9 hours ago, The Great Hambino said:

Why anyone would think that cutting salaries would lower ticket prices and not result in the owners simply pocketing more money is utterly baffling to me.  Ticket prices are set by what the public is willing to pay.  They cost what they cost because people are willing to pay it.  The ticket market and player labor market are separate markets.

it's not that it will but that it should. somebody in some business somewhere in this United States needs to not live on greed

[DJL44]

MLB trade rumors arbitration estimates 
 

Minnesota Twins (10)

• Anthony Banda (5.135): $2.3MM
• Dean Kremer (5.107): $6.5MM
• Bailey Ober (5.093): $6.9MM
• Joe Ryan (5.033): $9.6MM (current deal has $13MM mutual option for 2027 with $100K buyout)
• Trevor Larnach (5.014): $6.3MM
• Royce Lewis (4.139): $5.1MM
• Cole Sands (4.017): $1.3MM
• Tommy Nance (3.165): $1.2MM
• Kody Clemens (3.134): $3.6MM
• Taj Bradley (3.097): $4.5MM

None of these are bad

[MeleMouth]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

 

MLB trade rumors arbitration estimates 
 

Minnesota Twins (10)

• Anthony Banda (5.135): $2.3MM
• Dean Kremer (5.107): $6.5MM
• Bailey Ober (5.093): $6.9MM
• Joe Ryan (5.033): $9.6MM (current deal has $13MM mutual option for 2027 with $100K buyout)
• Trevor Larnach (5.014): $6.3MM
• Royce Lewis (4.139): $5.1MM
• Cole Sands (4.017): $1.3MM
• Tommy Nance (3.165): $1.2MM
• Kody Clemens (3.134): $3.6MM
• Taj Bradley (3.097): $4.5MM

None of these are bad

$5.1M for Royce could be bad if his 2027 is like 2026, but it could be a steal if he humbly makes adjustments.

[HrbieFan]

12 hours ago, mluebker said:

I think they wait to see what’s in the new CBA before extending anyone. It has the potential to be a game-changer. 

Prices are not going to get cheaper and the floor that the owners want will make have the teams spend nearly a half a billion combined. Yes, the larger markets may drop some, though not nearly that much. 

I am of the opinion that small market teams never extend pitchers with injury history, so that eliminates Abel and Prielipp. If I am the GM, I am trying to lock up Lee, Keaschall and maybe Walker. Walker's nagging injuries and now a surgery, scare me a bit. 

 

The Twins need cost certainty and to try and maximize every dollar spent. 

[Brandon]

14 hours ago, Jeff K said:

Bradley and Keaschall are easy choices to offer extensions.  I think Kaelen Culpepper is the next best choice.

Jenkins before Culpepper.  But both are deserving.

I am definitely not extending Preliepp yet.  He needs to be healthy for 4 or 5 years first

[bean5302]

13 hours ago, DJL44 said:

 

MLB trade rumors arbitration estimates 
 

Minnesota Twins (10)

• Anthony Banda (5.135): $2.3MM
• Dean Kremer (5.107): $6.5MM
• Bailey Ober (5.093): $6.9MM
• Joe Ryan (5.033): $9.6MM (current deal has $13MM mutual option for 2027 with $100K buyout)
• Trevor Larnach (5.014): $6.3MM
• Royce Lewis (4.139): $5.1MM
• Cole Sands (4.017): $1.3MM
• Tommy Nance (3.165): $1.2MM
• Kody Clemens (3.134): $3.6MM
• Taj Bradley (3.097): $4.5MM

None of these are bad

Non-tender Banda for sure since we could turn around and sign him for $1MM, if not a MiLB contract. Ober and Kremer are tough calls. Can't have a legitimate contender with both in the rotation, and Ober certainly doesn't warrant $7MM as a reliever. 

So much of the rest depends on the team's strategy.

[bean5302]

So much of direction needs to be based upon what owners expect from the new CBA. Internally, they know what they're willing to accept and what they're not. 

We can speculate under the current CBA, and MLB Trade Rumors estimates are based upon 2024-2025 arbitration rather than considering potential impact from Skubal.

Logan Gilbert $15MM
Joe Ryan $9MM

Lets get real, Gilbert is better than Ryan, it's not like night and day, though. Players like Ryan have nothing to lose by challenging arbitration. Yes I am aware Ryan has a $12MM mutual option, and I think both parties will accept it. It really seems to have worked out great, surprisingly. But players similar to Joe Ryan have no reason not to push the Skubal decision and push for a much higher salary in their final arbitration year.

[bean5302]

I'd consider buying out the arbitration years/extending slightly Walker Jenkins and Taj Bradley. Nobody else.

Keaschall's bat has outperformed metrics, he's got a slow swing and limited power, and he's a DH.
Prielipp could be Ricky Nolasco or Brandon Pfaadt (took years to produce)
Rodriguez has a high likelihood of never being an MLB caliber player
Culpepper has a questionable ceiling of being worth locking up.
 

[Mike Sixel]

22 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

Young players in MLB deserve to hit free agency much, much sooner than they do.  I imagine this will be a major outcome of the CBA negotiations.

Read: There's no way in hell any agent is signing off on anything in this uncertainty.

It's certainly why I try. The price of players is about to skyrocket. I'm offering Bradley, Keaschell, Culpeper, Jenkins, and Houston long term deals. I think only Bradley and Keaschell might accept..

I agree, it would be bad to accept offers given what's likely coming. 

[Sampson5]

Taj & Jenkins are the guys I think would be most likely to get extensions even tho I don't believe twins would actually do it I mean why pay a guy real money when you can pay them minimal money for years this is a the pohlads were talking about family motto is "maximize the business " 

[mluebker]

On 10/2/2026 at 8:30 AM, killercarewoliva said:

…can't any older people respond…?

As an “older guy,”  how can I resist an appeal like that?

First, if you’re a small market team like the Twins, charging more and more for tickets when you’re fielding a mediocre product doesn’t sound like a great strategy for filling the seats. A couple of sources say 2026 was the lowest average crowd size (excluding during COVID) this century, that on average they sold and distributed just 56% of available seats. So I don’t think the problem is the fans, I think it’s the product.

Second, baseball used to be the working man’s game. When you price him and his family out of the stadium, you’re basically telling your (traditionally) most loyal fans they aren’t welcome anymore. Maybe on game days they need to put all unsold tickets on sale for five bucks each and try to fill the seats, instead of having nearly half the stadium empty at game time. Will the people who paid full price for seats in the same section be ticked off? Sure, just like the people who couldn’t afford to pay full price are ticked off when they find themselves priced out of an afternoon or evening at the ballpark. You pick who  you feel sorry for.

Third, they’re trying to sell “the stadium experience” harder than they’re trying to sell watching the team. The stadium experience isn’t a reason to be out there in the stands regularly. It’s a one-off. When your friends ask if you’ve been to Target Field, you can say yes whether it was once or dozens of times. If you’re a fan and care about the pennant race, want to see how Kalen Culpepper looks at short, or you just enjoy sitting in the sun and keeping score, you aren’t coming out to evaluate the ballpark, you’re coming out to watch the team that plays in it.

I spent my younger years going to Met Stadium with my dad, the Metrodome with my friends, and Memorial Stadium in Baltimore with my future wife. We’d go on a whim—“Let’s see the game tonight,” and show up at the box office to buy whatever tickets we could get. This generation of fans, unless they were born with a silver spoon in their mouth, isn’t going to know what that’s like, and nobody who could do anything about it seems to think that’s a problem.

[killercarewoliva]

On 10/2/2026 at 11:13 AM, killercarewoliva said:

I've run seven marathons and I can still run but afterwards I like to have a nap. might keep in mind I have followed the Minnesota twins since 1965. almost religiously because of the type of players that the Minnesota twins like to put on the field. I've only been there one time for 4 days in 1992. I am currently 74 years old but my lady would call me 74 years young. no smoking, no drinking, no illicit drugs. he can live better and look better in your old age. okay one more thought. just for fun 1987 world series. my wife knew somebody in the power business offering me a ticket to a world series game for $100. pricing was different then and I didn't take it. thought it was too much money in hindsight....

there is a few others from you but I can't see them. I can only pick one. everything is gone except the one seven messages total.

[Mike Sixel]

This thread is amazeballs. Wowsers. 

[mluebker]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

This thread is amazeballs. Wowsers. 

Huh. Sounds like some kind of hipster or beatnik lingo to me.