MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo released updated prospect list

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Just as the title says, today Jonathan Mayo released his updated prospect list. There are some odd choices on the list so give it a look. For those of you too lazy to skim it here are the Twins that made it:

 

1.Buxton

3.Sano

36.Meyer

51.Gibson

66. Stewart

68 Rosario

85. Berrios

 

Mayo also updated his top 20 list for each team and top 10 by position lists. Link:

 

2013 Prospect Watch | MLB.com: News

[Smcginnity]

Hmmm. I don't disagree with his top 100 (with Twins players) but his top 20 on our team I don't agree with. Until Bard or Chargois play enough, they do not warrant that ranking. Also, I think Meijia should be on there along with Tyler Duffey, Baxendale, or Rogers. Is Felix Jorge considered to be better than Lewis Thorpe or Yorman Landa?

[PseudoSABR]

The organizational rankings seem a little lazy, and it's hard to tell whether the scouting reports themselves have been updated much at all..

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The organizational rankings seem a little lazy, and it's hard to tell whether the scouting reports themselves have been updated much at all..

 

The scouting reports have not been updated which is annoying. Gibson's still says he should make the major league at some point this year.....which he obviously has.

 

On his top ten by position lists we did have the #1 OF, #1 3B, and the #2 2b which is never a bad thing. Also, while none of our pitchers made the top 10 pitcher list having 4 pitchers in the top 100 is definitely a good thing.

[PseudoSABR]

having 4 pitchers in the top 100 is definitely a good thing.

Has that EVER happened?

[jokin]

The organizational rankings seem a little lazy, and it's hard to tell whether the scouting reports themselves have been updated much at all..

 

At least he wrote a fresh piece on Kohl Stewart!

[USMCTwin]

Also interesting that he has Sano ETA at 2015 along with Buxton and Rosario.

[howieramone1406390264]

Has that EVER happened?

 

I think back when they were called the Senators.

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Also interesting that he has Sano ETA at 2015 along with Buxton and Rosario.

 

That has to be an error. If Sano keeps warming up and Rosario stays hot they might both be September call ups.

[Steve Penz]

It makes me laugh how so many of these sites still list Sano at 6'3" and 195. Wasn't that about 45 pounds ago?

[jay]

Not bad from 1-10, but I agree with the comments about pretty lazy -- especially 11-20.

 

I would have liked to see Adam Walker, Albers, Darnell, Tonkin, Pinto, Vargas, Meija, Hicks, Summers, Williams, and a few others before some of the names on there.

[Siehbiscuit]

It makes me laugh how so many of these sites still list Sano at 6'3" and 195. Wasn't that about 45 pounds ago?

 

YES! Sano is definitely on the plus side of at least 220!

[AROG]

Not bad from 1-10, but I agree with the comments about pretty lazy -- especially 11-20.

 

I would have liked to see Adam Walker, Albers, Darnell, Tonkin, Pinto, Vargas, Meija, Hicks, Summers, Williams, and a few others before some of the names on there.

 

When you really look at it, the guys they have listed there almost all have a "potential" to be better then your list. I could see Meija, Walker, and Baxendale having a case to break the list but at the expense of maybe Goodrum, Melotakis and Harrison. And to me I am not sure I think the Meija has better upside then Goodrum, or Walker over Harrison, or Baxendale over Melotakis. The prospect list is all about potential upside to be a star.

[Erock]

Here is my go at it

 

1. Byron Buxton

2. Miguel Sano

3. Alex Meyer

4. Kohl Stewart

5. Eddie Rosario

6. Max Kepler

7. Trevor May

8. Travis Harrison

9. Jorge Polanco

10. J.O. Berrios

11. Josmil Pinto

12. Adam Brett Walker

13. Michael Tonkin

14. Aderlin Mejia

15. Kennys Vargas

16. Niko Goodrum

17. Ryan Eades

18. Amaurys Minier

19. DJ Baxendale

20. Zack Jones

21. Angel Morales

22. Mason Melotakis

23. Dalton Hicks

24. James Beresford

25. Stephen Gonsalves

 

Next: Stuart Turner, D.J. Williams, Nate Roberts, Logan Darnell, Luke Bard, Alex Wimmers, Tyler Duffey

[071063]

Why do people keep saying Sano might be a September call up? It makes no sense! Rosario is a slim possibility but it will not and should not happen for Sano! Get off it people!

[TheLeviathan]

That has to be an error. If Sano keeps warming up and Rosario stays hot they might both be September call ups.

 

I think September next year is a good bet. I think we see one of the two of them as early as June.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Why do people keep saying Sano might be a September call up? It makes no sense! Rosario is a slim possibility but it will not and should not happen for Sano! Get off it people!

 

I have to agree on this one. They will finish the season at AA. However, it would not surprise me at all if they both made the team out of ST next year. The Twins have proven they are willing to go that route several times in the recent past.

[Boone]

Why do people keep saying Sano might be a September call up? It makes no sense! Rosario is a slim possibility but it will not and should not happen for Sano! Get off it people!

 

After watching the likes of Hicks, Arcia, Parmelee, and Dozier all struggle mightily after getting little to no time in Rochester before becoming big league regulars, I really hope the Twins have learned that a few months in AAA is beneficial--and in some cases necessary-- for young players to have success in the majors.

[DaveW]

After watching the likes of Hicks, Arcia, Parmelee, and Dozier all struggle mightily after getting little to no time in Rochester before becoming big league regulars, I really hope the Twins have learned that a few months in AAA is beneficial--and in some cases necessary-- for young players to have success in the majors.

Arcia struggled mightily? He was actually hitting very well before his late "slump".

[DaveW]

I think September next year is a good bet. I think we see one of the two of them as early as June.

 

I could see them giving them each a cup of coffee this sept, especially if more and more trades are made.

 

Neither one will be up full time until next June and that is a GOOD thing. I know people will prob be calling the Twins cheap etc, but with a guy like Sano you absolutely keep that extra year of team control at any cost, especially since the Twins "real" window probably starts in 2015, even though I think they can compete next year.

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Why do people keep saying Sano might be a September call up? It makes no sense! Rosario is a slim possibility but it will not and should not happen for Sano! Get off it people!

 

Maybe people keep saying that because the front office has mentioned it before. A Sept call up doesn't mean they have made the team next year. It is just away to see your prospects and reward them for having a good year.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I could see them giving them each a cup of coffee this sept, especially if more and more trades are made.

 

Neither one will be up full time until next June and that is a GOOD thing. I know people will prob be calling the Twins cheap etc, but with a guy like Sano you absolutely keep that extra year of team control at any cost, especially since the Twins "real" window probably starts in 2015, even though I think they can compete next year.

 

Sano doesn't need to be added to the 40 man this offseason. He's not getting a cup of coffee in September. If they add him to the roster and send him back, they lose an option. He'll get called up in 2014 when the Twins brass decides that they are going to stick with him for the remainder of the season.

[jay]

When you really look at it, the guys they have listed there almost all have a "potential" to be better then your list. I could see Meija, Walker, and Baxendale having a case to break the list but at the expense of maybe Goodrum, Melotakis and Harrison. And to me I am not sure I think the Meija has better upside then Goodrum, or Walker over Harrison, or Baxendale over Melotakis. The prospect list is all about potential upside to be a star.

 

I fully get that different lists have different objectives, but I'm not so sure Eades, Bard, Chargois, Gonsalves, nor Turner have done anything to show the upside of a star. Turner's bat profiles him as the next Drew Butera.

 

Again, I'd personally list a number of guys over all five of them. In my opinion, Mayo shows too much love for guys drafted in the top 3 rounds in recent years and not enough love for guys who have actually produced in the minors.

[Major League Ready]

Not bad from 1-10, but I agree with the comments about pretty lazy -- especially 11-20.

 

I would have liked to see Adam Walker, Albers, Darnell, Tonkin, Pinto, Vargas, Meija, Hicks, Summers, Williams, and a few others before some of the names on there.

 

I think Walker, Pinto and a few others are going to get noticed soon. Look at the bright side, there are serveral good prospects that did not make it in the top 20. That is some pretty darn good depth.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Again, I'd personally list a number of guys over all five of them. In my opinion, Mayo shows too much love for guys drafted in the top 3 rounds in recent years and not enough love for guys who have actually produced in the minors.

 

I think this is a flaw in prospecting in general. Lots of interest in the new girl simply because she's new. That's how guys like Arcia consistently get underrated despite the fact that they've put up results at every stop.

[Seth Stohs]

I fully get that different lists have different objectives, but I'm not so sure Eades, Bard, Chargois, Gonsalves, nor Turner have done anything to show the upside of a star. Turner's bat profiles him as the next Drew Butera.

 

Again, I'd personally list a number of guys over all five of them. In my opinion, Mayo shows too much love for guys drafted in the top 3 rounds in recent years and not enough love for guys who have actually produced in the minors.

 

Eades was a top-of-2nd-round pick out of a top college. He's been successful in college and touches 94. I personally have him in a (not-yet-existing, but still-in-my-mind) Top 10.

 

Frankly, most (someone else can figure it out) big leaguers were drafted in the first three rounds of the draft, top 100 pick types. So, there's probably some certainty in a list like that. International is always kind of a question mark.

[Oxtung]

Sano doesn't need to be added to the 40 man this offseason. He's not getting a cup of coffee in September. If they add him to the roster and send him back, they lose an option. He'll get called up in 2014 when the Twins brass decides that they are going to stick with him for the remainder of the season.

 

Are you sure about that? I don't think September call ups use an option but I am not positive. I tried to do some searching but my google-fu is poor, I think I need invest some skill points during my next level up, but was only able to find this anything-but-official page clarifying:

 

Pirates Prospects » Previewing the September Call-Ups

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I think this is a flaw in prospecting in general. Lots of interest in the new girl simply because she's new. That's how guys like Arcia consistently get underrated despite the fact that they've put up results at every stop.

 

People were saying this last year with Buxton when doing their own personal top Twins lists. Players taken in the top 5 picks have a 88% chance to make it to the bigs and a 34% chance to have an impact. While Stewart could be in the 12% that dont, odds are against it. You just don't find many guys with his tools.

[Badsmerf]

Are you sure about that? I don't think September call ups use an option but I am not positive. I tried to do some searching but my google-fu is poor, I think I need invest some skill points during my next level up, but was only able to find this anything-but-official page clarifying:

 

Pirates Prospects » Previewing the September Call-Ups

I'm pretty sure he just has to be on the 40 man and it doesn't burn an option. That is why rosters expand and so many minor league guys get looks.

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Eades was a top-of-2nd-round pick out of a top college. He's been successful in college and touches 94. I personally have him in a (not-yet-existing, but still-in-my-mind) Top 10.

 

Frankly, most (someone else can figure it out) big leaguers were drafted in the first three rounds of the draft, top 100 pick types. So, there's probably some certainty in a list like that. International is always kind of a question mark.

 

Picks 1-5 have a 88% chance to make it to the bigs for at least a cup of coffee. Rest of the first round is about a ~70% chance. Supplemental 1st rounders and second rounders have about a 50% chance to make it to the bigs. The farther you go down the draft the less likely you are to make the bigs and/or make an impact.

 

Eades is a damn good prospect and according to Christopher Crawford could be one of the first SPs to the bigs.