Royce Lewis Is Heating Up at the Perfect Time for the Twins

[HarmonK03]

11 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

@HarmonK03 after thinking some more I think we are more aligned on this topic than you think. You said Tom needed to get to the bottom of it - I think he has. Say what you will I have openly stated my concerns with Tom but there has been a divide between players and coaching:management/ownership since right sizing in 2023. Each party was doing what they felt was in their best interest. From the top down. So everything became individually oriented than team oriented. What I’ve given Tom credit for is opening up lines of communication again and regaining some trust. Coaching has drastically improved and simple things such as bunting are gradually coming back to the organization. You need to work on it throughout the season not just expect to be able to do it in the playoffs. Lastly the team dynamic is the best it’s been in years. That has value. The game is more than just home runs exit velocity and spin rates in pitching. Shelton appears to be melding old school and analytics quite well. 

Appreciate the comments and  I agree the coaching has improved.  But I still think there is an organizational culture that Falvey set that I don't think will change unless someone else is in charge other than Zoll.  I know there are some positives that he has done, but reality says they have basically been a .500 team over the last 10 years.  

Shelty can only do so much if the player development is lacking or if the players he is given are not quality players.  I still think they are too analytic driven, rather than using it as a tool.

And maybe someone comes in and nothing changes as well, but it just feels the organization is a little stale.  And I would like to see Shelty  get more help from the front office. 

[DocBauer]

It's not part of the OP, but since it was brought up in the comments, I do think there is a portion of fans that do ride certain players very hard. When HOPE of GREATNESS doesn't transform in to such, for whatever reasons, that projected HOPE turns to disappointment, and then disappointment turns to a frustrated anger. Think Gibson, Sano, Buxton, and Lewis. Is that fair? I think not. But I can understand it, even if I think it's misguided.

I would refer back to @bean5302 post earlier where Lewis has clearly been a different hitter since he came back up. 

NOT to be condescending, but Lewis had been on a low road for about a year and a half before his demotion. Did that provide a new perspective and maturity as a person, or player, or both? Did he have fun with St Paul and remember that he actually loves the game? So mentally AND emotionally, did that reset give him a new approach and bring back his confidence? Is it a combination of all of those things?

One thing Lewis has never been lacking is work ethic and confidence. But when you have to work SO HARD due to injuries, and your game doesn't come so easily any longer, and your confidence wavers, you end up with the Lewis for about a year and a half.

Regardless of exactly WHAT transpired in his head and heart during his demotion, he's been a solid, competent hitter since he came back. And he seems to have a "determined" attitude to be the best 1B he can be...which I think he can be excellent with time and repetition...as well as being an occasional 2B, which is OK usage IMO for now at least. 

Almost ALL players go through hot streaks. They also go through cold streaks as well. It's part of a 6 month plus season. And it's awesome that Lewis is hot right now, especially with Buxton out and a couple other players struggling a bit.

But Lewis absolutely WILL NOT carry the team. That's just a falacy or fantasy that ONE GUY can carry a team. What the Twins need from Lewis is CONSISTENCY for the rest of 2026 and the future. It's ENTIRETY possible that Lewis, at 27yo has FINALLY "figured it out" as a hitter. Maybe he's even recognized that he doesn't HAVE to be Superman! To say a player has finally matured isn't an insult. It's acceptance of ability, but recognition that not only he doesn't have to be perfect, but just recognizing he can still be good, or great, without having a greatness burden.

I'd like to think Lewis has FINALLY figured that out. I'd also like to believe that he's matured enough to realize a couple bad days also don't define him.

I love Lewis at 1B and think he can be outstanding there with a little more time. But he's more than athletic enough to play a little 2B here and there until the INF really settles down in 2027. 

Look again at his numbers since he came back from his demotion. He's a legitimate 20 plus HR bat with good DBLS and a few SB. He's on an upturn currently.  But if he SETTLES as a .270 AVG hitter with a .325 OBP and 25 HR and 30plus  DBLS, would you be disappointed?

A hot streak is awesome. But I want a CONSISTENT Lewis, even if his numbers are only borderline All Star. 

 

[Vanimal46]

7 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

What I struggle with is many of his plate appearances continuing to be so egregiously bad. Still seems like a lot of guesswork up there even when he's swinging well. Lewis has a 1.025 OPS in his last 12 games but a 15-to-1 K/BB ratio.

As Sam notes in the article, the Twins don't need Lewis to necessarily keep up at this rate, but they can't have him go back in the tank. That kind of plate discipline lends itself to extended slumps.

Choose the scope you want I guess. I'll choose the scope since he was called up after his reset in St Paul which is .280 BA with a near .850 OPS. 

[ashbury]

8 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

Still seems like a lot of guesswork up there even when he's swinging well. Lewis has a 1.025 OPS in his last 12 games but a 15-to-1 K/BB ratio.

Those 12 games comprised 51 plate appearances.  15 strikeouts is 29% which is pretty bad but one can hope he comes back down to his career norms more like 22%.  1 BB is a crazy low 2% and he's usually more like 8%.  Three homers in that span is like 6% which is a little above his usual 4%.

So then why is his OPS so high, in the face of a couple of headwinds (high SO, low BB)?  On balls hit in play, he's batting .484.

If he's engaging in guesswork and the ball evades fielders' gloves when he sticks the bat out there, that kind of result is extremely unlikely to continue at this .484 success rate.  Nobody sustains a rate even .100 below that.

Concepts like "heating up at the right time" are almost bound to disappoint fans.  Fluctuations in BABIP don't explain anything about the batter per se, but it can take some of the mystery out of hot and cold periods, and encourage us to say "this too shall pass."

[USAFChief]

One thing...I wish they'd just park him at 1B and leave him.

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

I was hoping he'd be traded at the deadline. He is such a streaky player. 

Can he maintain this production? Can he hit enough to play 1B? 

I have my doubts. But I hope he proves me wrong. 

[MarkoFlow]

48 minutes ago, soyouresayingtheresachance said:

I was hoping he'd be traded at the deadline. https://3dtrcek.com/hu/3d-filamentek He is such a streaky player. 

Can he maintain this production? Can he hit enough to play 1B?  https://b2b.pharma-hemp.com/contract-manufacturing/

I have my doubts. But I hope he proves me wrong. 

Moving him at the deadline would have been selling low. Settling into a permanent 1B role reduces his injury risk and lets his bat stay in the lineup.

[soyouresayingtheresachance]

7 hours ago, MarkoFlow said:

Moving him at the deadline would have been selling low. Settling into a permanent 1B role reduces his injury risk and lets his bat stay in the lineup.

It would've been selling low, absolutely. Hes had 3 pretty terrible years since hes done anything. Playing 1B generally comes with a pretty big bat. Im just not sure he can consistently provide that.

[bean5302]

I feel like people are confusing playing poorly while hurt with streaky. If Royce Lewis' name was Alex Kirilloff, 90% of this site would be proclaiming him the de-facto MVP for the next 12 years straight already.

The last 12 games would be the baseline for Lewis' performance, and any time Lewis didn't have a game with an OPS of at least 1.000 it's because he was hurt that day.

[Cris E]

12 hours ago, USAFChief said:

One thing...I wish they'd just park him at 1B and leave him.

They have at least one better option at 2B (Klemens) so I wonder if Lewis' appearances there have more to do with managing the clubhouse than 100% baseball reasons. If Klemons is hurting, if Royce wants to pretend he can still play middle infield, if Jackson needs to start against a specific pitcher, whatever,  then throwing a couple Lewis at 2B makes a bunch of other things fit. It's a long season and Shelton has way more to worry about than setting a lineup and sitting back. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

13 hours ago, ashbury said:

Those 12 games comprised 51 plate appearances.  15 strikeouts is 29% which is pretty bad but one can hope he comes back down to his career norms more like 22%.  1 BB is a crazy low 2% and he's usually more like 8%.  Three homers in that span is like 6% which is a little above his usual 4%.

So then why is his OPS so high, in the face of a couple of headwinds (high SO, low BB)?  On balls hit in play, he's batting .484.

If he's engaging in guesswork and the ball evades fielders' gloves when he sticks the bat out there, that kind of result is extremely unlikely to continue at this .484 success rate.  Nobody sustains a rate even .100 below that.

Concepts like "heating up at the right time" are almost bound to disappoint fans.  Fluctuations in BABIP don't explain anything about the batter per se, but it can take some of the mystery out of hot and cold periods, and encourage us to say "this too shall pass."

Is it luck,  or a combination of something else?  

What has changed - his bat velocity has increased 3% since the beginning of the season.  Is he healthier, more confident, swinging harder, the change in the high leg kick creating more momentum or a combination.  In either case he is swinging harder which is increasing exit velocity which does help explain a higher babip but even still there is likely some luck involved here.  The last 2 weeks he is seeing the ball extremely well.  Now I can recall 1 or 2 cheap hits but the majority are hard hit balls that are earned hits in my opinion.  He looks like a confident player putting the ball in play.   

[ashbury]

29 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Is it luck,  or a combination of something else?  

What has changed - his bat velocity has increased 3% since the beginning of the season.  Is he healthier, more confident, swinging harder, the change in the high leg kick creating more momentum or a combination.  In either case he is swinging harder which is increasing exit velocity which does help explain a higher babip but even still there is likely some luck involved here.  The last 2 weeks he is seeing the ball extremely well.  Now I can recall 1 or 2 cheap hits but the majority are hard hit balls that are earned hits in my opinion.  He looks like a confident player putting the ball in play.   

BABIP reflects a certain combination of batting skills.  Some players maintain a high one (Joe Mauer), some maintain a low one (Max Kepler) - just as some players hit homers and others don't.

Coming into this season, among players with at least 2000 PA (to try to rule out small samples, which obviously biases toward good players) across the past ten seasons, Brandon Marsh maintained a .371 BABIP. (He's "down" to .339 this season.)  Austin Hedges, in case anyone's curious, is low man among these 296 players, with .238.

When someone's on a hot streak, almost certainly some components of his game will be outside his usual norms.  If for instance the strikeouts are suddenly low, you could expect regression to his prior mean - but there do exist players who don't strike out very much, and fans of the player could hope that he's found some new tactic that cuts down the Ks permanently.  Similarly if the HRs are suddenly up at some kind of Kyle Schwarber rate, probably it's just a fluke, but maybe our hero has unlocked something that will continue, because there do exist players who have that kind of production.  Walks, ditto - batters with great eyes exist, and maybe the guy on a good run has joined their ranks.

So, my point really is just that the tear Lewis has been on is supported by something, a .484 BABIP, that is literally .100 higher than any major leaguer has been able to maintain on a long term basis the past ten years. It would be one thing if we thought Lewis had suddenly become Brandon Marsh.  It's another, if we thought he became Kal-El of Krypton come to Earth

Players tinker with their plate approach all the time. They're trying to get better, they're trying to confound the "book" that opposing teams have on him.  The opposing teams tinker with the "book" on him, in response. Health and any number of factors play in as well.

Thus I don't call it luck.  Lewis is trying his best on every at bat, and the opposing pitcher is trying his best on every throw he makes.  Let the best man win. 

But the rate of success Lewis is enjoying isn't based on the kind of thing that continues indefinitely.

[HarmonK03]

1 hour ago, Cris E said:

They have at least one better option at 2B (Klemens) so I wonder if Lewis' appearances there have more to do with managing the clubhouse than 100% baseball reasons. If Klemons is hurting, if Royce wants to pretend he can still play middle infield, if Jackson needs to start against a specific pitcher, whatever,  then throwing a couple Lewis at 2B makes a bunch of other things fit. It's a long season and Shelton has way more to worry about than setting a lineup and sitting back. 

Notice the pattern when he plays at 2B, it's pretty obvious, they have determined that Caratini is the first baseman against LH pitching so Lewis moves to second.  This is for unknown reasons that they want Caratini in there.

[Linus]

2 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

Notice the pattern when he plays at 2B, it's pretty obvious, they have determined that Caratini is the first baseman against LH pitching so Lewis moves to second.  This is for unknown reasons that they want Caratini in there.

Correct and it drives me crazy.