The Shape of a Trade Deadline

[Cody Schoenmann]

Long ago, pacing in front of a green, rectangular chalkboard, author Kurt Vonnegut traveled around the country, lecturing audiences on the shape of a story. In his lectures, Vonnegut would profess that stories have “very simple shapes; ones that computers can understand.” He would draw out a “GI axis” (”G” meaning good fortune; I meaning “Ill fortune”). He would then draw out the “BE axis.” Naturally, “B” stood for beginning and “E” for end.

 

The first type of story is titled “Man in a Hole.” It needn’t be about a man nor a hole, but somebody gets into trouble and then gets out of it. Another popular story shape was “Boy Meets Girl.” Mind you, it needn’t be about a boy or a girl. Somebody, on a day like any other day, comes across something wonderful. It is their lucky day! Then **** hits the fan. But somehow, someway, they get their life together again.

 

Finally, the most popular story begins closer to the “I” on the GI axis: Vonnegut talks about a young girl whose mother dies. Her father then immediately remarries to a terrible battleaxe with two mean daughters. There’s a party at the palace one night. Yet, she doesn’t get to go. Instead, she is forced to help her sisters get ready for it. But she does not let that bother her. She is a stout-hearted little girl with maximum grief due to the death of her mother. Suddenly, a fairy godmother gets her dressed; she goes to the party, and a prince falls in love with her. The clock strikes 12; she loses everything; the shoe fits, and she becomes off-scale happy for eternity.

 

Vonnegut notes the infinite despair of Franz Kafka’s “The Metamorphosis” before noting that the rise and fall of these stories is artificial—pretending we know more about life than we do, before delving into “Hamlet.” Vonnegut describes the William Shakespeare classic, continually remarking that the events that occur in the story are neither good nor bad—they happen. We are so seldom told the truth in stories, but in “Hamlet,” Shakespeare tells us: we don’t know enough about life to know what the good news is and what the bad news is, and we respond to that.

 

We pretend to know what the good news is and what the bad news is—All we do is echo the feelings of those around us. This sentiment is especially true when it comes to MLB’s Trade Deadline. Remember when the Twins front office traded for Tyler Mahle, Jorge López, and Michael Fulmer during the 2022 deadline? Immediately, those who followed the club deemed them deadline winners, acquiring a frontline starting pitcher and two high-leverage relievers. Less than two months later, they were deadline losers, with Mahle on the IL with a shoulder injury, Lòpez imploding in nearly every appearance, and Fulmer’s addition quickly becoming irrelevant as the club fell out of playoff contention.

 

Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand were set to become stars with the Cincinnati Reds—Until they didn’t; Yennier Cano was going to be one of the best late-innings relievers, with Cade Povich looking like a soon-to-be number two starter in Baltimore’s formidable starting rotation—Until they didn’t; The Twins also should have just kept Sawyer Gipson-Long, who was bound to become a young, cost-controlled fixture in Detroit’s rotation for seasons to come—until he didn’t. We were but echoing the feelings of those around us.

 

In 2023, the Twins' inactivity at the deadline was the nail in the coffin of their playoff aspirations—Until it wasn’t. Despite not adding a single player at the deadline, Minnesota won the AL Central, ending its 18-game postseason losing streak and winning its first series in 19 years. We pretend to know what the good and bad news is, and we respond to that. The organization buying during this season’s deadline appears to be a good thing. It is a clear, welcomed shift from the bleak passivity Minnesota’s ownership and front office has demonstrated since the end of the 2023 postseason.

 

Still, we don’t know enough about the Twins to know what the good news is and what the bad news is, and we respond to that. The acquisitions of AJ Minter and Dean Kremer were nice, floor-raising moves. The club could still add what is perceived to be a dramatic, tide-shifting starting pitcher like Reid Detmers or Casey Mize or a reliever like Luke Weaver or Adrián Morejón. No matter what Minnesota does, it won’t be in the shape of a “Man in the Hole”, a “Boy Meets Girl” story, “Cinderella,” or “The Metamorphosis.” Instead, it will be a flat line like “Hamlet”: a series of transactions in which we don’t know if they will be good or bad. So, this deadline, I beg you not to echo the feelings of those around you, pretending to know what the good news is and what the bad news is. Instead, I ask you to acknowledge that we don’t know enough about trades to know what the good news is and what the bad news is, and respond to that appropriately.

View full article

[tony&rodney]

Fantastic article.

The trade deadline is fraught with illusions, hopes, and hype. The work on rosters is best left to the offseason. Still, one can believe in surprises and miracles.

[Patzky]

The story of yesterday's game was a tragedy, a comedy, all in one. Why we love the game.

[old nurse]

Then there is the true life story where the star pitcher that is traded for nothing leads his team to a championship, or the nothing payer becomes an All Star closer or starter. The story does not occur very often, but enough to give teams and fans hope

[ExtendGladdenFireAtteberry]

Great article. Here’s hoping this year’s trades don’t end up resembling Vonnegut’s drawing of a butthole.

[Patzky]

It's only 1 pm but I feel we're left behind

 Adell, Brazoban, within the division.. 

[Coach]

If we want continue the metaphors from the article; trades "are like a box of chocolates, you never (really) know what you're gonna get.". 

[Senior Softball Guy]

Fans like the intrigue of the trade deadline, but do you really want to mess with the chemistry of the team you have. It's too damn easy to over think things, play chess master when you should just 'Let it be, Let it be".........

[ToddlerHarmon]

The 1987 Tigers thought they had met the girl in Doyle Alexander, who had a great September after being acquired in a trade.

Then the Twins pushed them in a hole, and left them looking up at Jon Smoltz leading Atlanta to about 15 straight division titles.

Would the trade be remembered differently if the Tigers had cashed in at least one championship for Smoltz?

That is the question

[Woof Bronzer]

Great piece Cody.  Please, more articles with literary/non-sports tie-ins!

[Ex-Iowegian]

To me, Trade Deadline day has a little bit of the flavor of Opening Day hope springing eternal.

Until it doesn’t….

[Riverbrian]

This article makes an excellent point and I enjoyed the references. I found the article to be very intelligent. 

Perhaps is the word.

Farmer's Horse Runs Away... his neighbors says what terrible luck. The Farmer says perhaps. 

The horse comes back with wild horses and his neighbors say what great luck. The Farmer says perhaps. 

His son breaks his leg riding one of the wild horses and his neighbors say that was terrible luck. The Farmer says perhaps. 

I have seen teams sell and get better and I have seen teams buy and get worse. You can't win this thing on paper... it has to be done on the field and the margins are way to tight for anyone to be sure of ourselves.  

The Blue Jays were one out from a world series title and after significant additions to the club in the off-season they are somehow not in contention in 2026. They didn't anticipate that Vlad Jr would have 6 home runs 400 AB's into the season.

The Padres didn't anticipate that Merrill, Laureano, Bogaerts and Cronenworth would be kind of horrible as they rank 26th in team OPS or that they would have basically 1 decent starting pitcher for the entire year as the starters rank 27th in ERA. And yet still be in contention... because of a bullpen and Ty France being the big dog with the bat. 

We don't know... the front offices don't know. You can't predict it, All you can do is go down the path that the players are taking you.

It was Alexandre Auguste Ledru-Rollin (I think he is from Fridley) who said. "There go my people, I must find out where they are going so I can lead them". 

Baseball should be a constant audition in the search for talent or at least decent play. 

These additions at the deadline might be great, they may fail, we will find out but what they hopefully did at the very least is push players down the spectrum from the middle to the bottom or from the bottom to off the roster. Hopefully they made the 2026 team deeper for the months ahead. 

Who won each trade? We will find out later after all of the many perhapses are answered. What is yet to come still has to come. I won't declare a winner but many here are ready to make their declarations right now.  

All of this is why I strongly advocate utilizing the entire 26 man roster to identify the top, the middle and the bottom, culling from the bottom until the bottom is raised. Providing opportunity for all to confound expectation and not making pre-determination on any member of the 26 man roster.

The players will tell you. Follow them. 

 

 

 

[killercarewoliva]

On 8/3/2026 at 9:25 AM, tony&rodney said:

Fantastic article.

The trade deadline is fraught with illusions, hopes, and hype. The work on rosters is best left to the offseason. Still, one can believe in surprises and miracles.

The twins I think tried to get an outfielder from the dodgers must not have worked out because after these fantastic additions to the bullpen you got to get to the 7th, 8th and 9th inning with a lead. and with what Cleveland did, it's going to be hard to type that because that's all the twins got. was some pitching no additional offense and the offense has been floundering lately. we have two people and AAA Jenkins and Mendez where Mendez is hitting around 300. we have one of my favorites. Auston Martin love watching him play but it's been tough on him lately. getting on base then roden is not shining too brightly over the success of varland but has great enthusiasm. put Jenkins in center field and Mendez and right field and just try. might even need to put Keaschell at designated hitter until the very important bat of Bell can come back to life. got to have the offense. got to try something. who I am really missing is Abel. wow! he was turning into something beautiful to watch and mowing them down. I don't think the powers that be feel like the two players I just mentioned in AAA are ready to come up without some changes in those that come to the plate. I don't see us taking over the spot that Cleveland probably is going to get to you. got to take a chance.

[Cody Schoenmann]

4 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

This article makes an excellent point and I enjoyed the references. I found the article to be very intelligent. 

Perhaps is the word.

Farmer's Horse Runs Away... his neighbors says what terrible luck. The Farmer says perhaps. 

The horse comes back with wild horses and his neighbors say what great luck. The Farmer says perhaps. 

His son breaks his leg riding one of the wild horses and his neighbors say that was terrible luck. The Farmer says perhaps. 

I have seen teams sell and get better and I have seen teams buy and get worse. You can't win this thing on paper... it has to be done on the field and the margins are way to tight for anyone to be sure of ourselves.  

The Blue Jays were one out from a world series title and after significant additions to the club in the off-season they are somehow not in contention in 2026. They didn't anticipate that Vlad Jr would have 6 home runs 400 AB's into the season.

The Padres didn't anticipate that Merrill, Laureano, Bogaerts and Cronenworth would be kind of horrible as they rank 26th in team OPS or that they would have basically 1 decent starting pitcher for the entire year as the starters rank 27th in ERA. And yet still be in contention... because of a bullpen and Ty France being the big dog with the bat. 

We don't know... the front offices don't know. You can't predict it, All you can do is go down the path that the players are taking you.

It was Alexandre Auguste Ledru-Rollin (I think he is from Fridley) who said. "There go my people, I must find out where they are going so I can lead them". 

Baseball should be a constant audition in the search for talent or at least decent play. 

These additions at the deadline might be great, they may fail, we will find out but what they hopefully did at the very least is push players down the spectrum from the middle to the bottom or from the bottom to off the roster. Hopefully they made the 2026 team deeper for the months ahead. 

Who won each trade? We will find out later after all of the many perhapses are answered. What is yet to come still has to come. I won't declare a winner but many here are ready to make their declarations right now.  

All of this is why I strongly advocate utilizing the entire 26 man roster to identify the top, the middle and the bottom, culling from the bottom until the bottom is raised. Providing opportunity for all to confound expectation and not making pre-determination on any member of the 26 man roster.

The players will tell you. Follow them. 

 

 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

8 minutes ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

 

Cartoons are very educational!

[ashbury]

We just traded for Jeff Hoffman.  Please do not mention Jorge Lopez in any context.