The Adjustment That Could Unlock Taj Bradley's Best Self

[Sam Caulder]

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Taj Bradley's 2026 campaign has been anything but consistent. There have been plenty of highs, and there have been plenty of lows. At times, Bradley looks like the ace Minnesota envisioned when they acquired him last summer. His fastball explodes through the zone, his secondary pitches are extremely tough to square up, and hitters look completely overmatched. Then there are starts where everything seems to unravel. The command disappears; pitch counts climb too quickly; and he spends the game trying to escape self-created jams.

Just this past Wednesday, Bradley reminded everyone why the ceiling is so high. He tied a career high with 11 strikeouts over just five innings, overpowering hitters from start to finish. On the season as a whole, he's now punched out 102 batters in just 88 2/3 innings. That's the profile of a pitcher capable of being dominant.

But those dominant outings have often been followed by frustrating ones, and there's usually one common theme. Bradley's walk rate sits at an even 10% this season, and more often than not, when he has a rough outing, it's because the command isn't there. He falls behind in counts, gives out free passes, and is forced into hitter-friendly situations that eventually come back to bite him.

It's easy to say, "Well, just throw more strikes"—as if every pitcher ever hasn't already thought of that. Unfortunately, it isn't that easy to execute. Nor is it easy to make massive strides in a short period. Bradley has always had a higher-than-average walk rate over the course of his career, and while his velocity has gone up over the years, that coincides with worsening command. But what if he could become the type of pitcher who doesn't have to live in the strike zone to consistently succeed? I think there's a path to that, and it starts with throwing his four-seam fastball a little less often.

Before anyone interprets that as saying Bradley has a bad fastball, that's absolutely not what I'm saying. The pitch is still electric. Through his first 16 starts, Bradley has thrown his four-seamer 48% of the time. Clearly, it's the foundation of everything he does. He trusts it, he uses it early in counts, and it sets up the rest of his arsenal. None of that necessarily needs to change. But right now, I don't think it's playing as well as it could, and I think it could become even more effective if hitters saw it just a little bit less.

The biggest concern is the quality of contact it's allowing. Opposing hitters own a 93.3 MPH average exit velocity against Bradley's four-seam fastball on balls in play. To be fair, higher-velocity pitches are naturally going to produce louder batted balls; that's just part of throwing upper-90s heat. But 93.3 MPH is still an alarming number. When hitters are making contact against Bradley's fastball, they're squaring it up far more often than you'd like to see.

That's especially concerning, because they're making contact with it pretty frequently. Bradley's four-seamer currently owns just a 14.6% whiff rate, while hitters are making contact on 87.4% of their swings at pitches in the strike zone. When Bradley misses with the fastball, he usually misses by enough that hitters aren't offering. But when he is pounding the zone, hitters are making him pay for it. That's not exactly the profile you want from a pitch that's making up nearly half of your arsenal.

Now, compare that to everything else he throws. His secondary pitches have been outstanding. His hard cutter and his splitter generate swings and misses; both look like legitimate weapons. His curveball has kept hitters uncomfortable. Across the board, those secondary offerings are generating significantly more whiffs, while also limiting hard contact far better than the fastball has this season. 

Why not lean into what's working? Pitchers have to adjust throughout the course of a 162-game season. Maybe one pitch isn't playing quite as well for a month or two. Maybe hitters have made adjustments; maybe his sequencing needs to change. Whatever the reason, the best pitchers are constantly adapting.

Right now, Bradley's secondary pitches are simply performing better than his four-seamer. That doesn't mean abandoning the fastball—far from it. I'm not suggesting Bradley suddenly cuts his fastball usage in half or becomes a pitcher who only throws breaking balls and splitters. That's not realistic. Nor would it probably be effective. He throws all his secondary pitches in or near the zone often enough to be effective, but if he had to throw them much more often, he'd run into even worse walk issues.

But what if his four-seam usage dropped from 48% to closer to 40%? What if those extra pitches instead became cutters and splitters? Hitters would have to account for those secondary offerings more, and Bradley's fastball velocity might play up even more because hitters wouldn't be gearing up for it as often. Sometimes less really is more.

Interestingly enough, we may have already seen a glimpse of what that looks like. In Wednesday's dominant outing, Bradley threw his four-seam fastball just 37% of the time. As I mentioned earlier, he was gross. Everything played off one another beautifully. The secondary pitches kept hitters off balance, and when the fastball did show up, it seemed to have a little more life, because it wasn't nearly as predictable. He didn't rack up whiffs, but by mixing things up, he got 19 called strikes and produced a lot of foul balls that helped him get ahead in the count.

One start certainly doesn't prove anything, and that may be just a coincidence. Maybe the next time he tries it, hitters adjust, and the results aren't nearly as impressive. But given how dominant Bradley's secondary pitches have been—and how inconsistent the four-seam has looked—it feels like an adjustment that's at least worth exploring.

His raw talent has never been in question. It's just about finding the mix that allows Bradley to access that version of himself more consistently. Right now, Taj Bradley throwing his four-seam fastball just a little less feels like an adjustment that could pay off in a big way.

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[Sjoski]

Taj takes the mound tonight...strange. 

Both starters not only have the same record at 7-3, but the same era at  3.86

What are the odds...(other than two opening day starters.)

Twins/ Cle records are inverted too. 

 

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, Sjoski said:

Taj takes the mound tonight...strange. 

Both starters not only have the same record at 7-3, but the same era at  3.86

What are the odds...(other than two opening day starters.)

Twins/ Cle records are inverted too. 

 

Let's hope for inverted line scores, where the Twins end up with 6 runs, 8 hits and 0 errors and Cleveland ends up with 0 runs, 8 hits and 6 errors, for example. 

 

[JADBP]

On the other hand, he’s still relatively young and really is just coming into his own this year.  He’s continuously improving.   I’m sure the coaches won’t let him continue to throw his FB (no matter how good it might be) nearly 50% of the time.  Right now, Ryan & Bradley make up a great 1-2 punch!  
 

I am hoping that Pohlad sits down with Ryan and convinces him to stay with a really friendly extension.   But I think he will have to overpay because the Twins have burnt so many bridges with Ryan.  If not, then trade him for that Kings Ransom! But, like the other article, it’s time to make up your mind!   

[IndianaTwin]

31 minutes ago, JADBP said:

...I am hoping that Pohlad sits down with Ryan and convinces him to stay with a really friendly extension.   But I think he will have to overpay because the Twins have burnt so many bridges with Ryan.  If not, then trade him for that Kings Ransom! But, like the other article, it’s time to make up your mind!   

This is a Bryant thread, but here's some quotes from a Dan Hayes article in The Athletic today:

Though Ryan thought he might be traded during the offseason, there were no second thoughts about rejoining the Twins. Once he returned, Ryan was going to make the most of this situation and let it all play out.

Thus far, Ryan is starring for the Twins and providing a much-needed ace in the wake of Pablo López’s season-ending injury. But even more than just doing his part on the mound, Ryan has invested in this team both publicly and behind the scenes.

...Ryan would love nothing more than to help convince the front office to add and give this team a chance down the stretch. Adding Sonny Gray and whatever flame-throwing relief pitcher is available would be just fine.

The current conversation [about the Twins being buyers] is far more appealing than one where the focus is on potential trade destinations for Ryan — and it’s one he’s helping drive.

-------------

There was a narrative on TD that Sonny Gray "wanted out" because he had a couple outbursts in the heat of competition that demonstrated his intense drive. During more mellow times, however, he spoke glowingly about his time with the Twins. 

Similarly, Ryan's outbursts have been at times when he was communicating confidence in his ability and a desire to stay in the game. The observations from the Hayes article don't sound like they are coming from a player feeling like bridges have been burned.

 

I, too, hope they find a way to get an extension done. FWIW, a 28-year-old Lopez signed a four-year extension when the team still had one year of control. This offseason, Ryan will be a entering his age-31 season with the team still having one year of control. Comparing the two, Lopez had had more sustained success at the time, whereas Ryan has had a higher peak. Potentially, Lopez could have been okay with the four-year extension, knowing he would still be a free agent entering his age 33 season, but I think the two situations have some similarities.

If Ryan lets things play out, he takes the risk of going on the market entering his age 32 season, already likely on some level of decline. Some team might throw six or seven years at him, but those are getting less and less common. I really wonder if an extension that buys out his final year and gets him four more at an inflation-adjusted price point similar to Lopez might get it done. (Part of the inflation adjustment is that Skubal's arbitration win this past year could well push Ryan's arbitration ask well above what Lopez had gotten for his last year of control.)   

[Nebtwinsfan]

Taj gave up more than 2 earned runs only once in his first 9 starts and had some struggles after he came back from his injury. It seems like he is regaining that early season form the past few starts.  

[LA Vikes Fan]

I think Bradley has been a great acquisition. He was never thought of as "the ace Minnesota envisioned when they acquired him last summer." I think the hope was that he'd be a solid #3 or #4 starter. There was hope he could improve to be something akin to a #2. And improve he has. I would argue that so far this season he has been a very strong #3 to a solid #2 in a competitive team's rotation. Remember, all we gave up was an aging but effective setup man in Griffin Jax. He wasn't a closer, in fact failed miserably in that role when tried, and he had started the back nine of his career. Jax has had a decent season with the Rays as 7th inning guy. Conversely, Bradley has had a very good season with the Twins as our #2 starter. There is no question we got more value than we gave, at least so far.

I'm all in favor of changing his pitch sequencing to make you more effective and I think the ideas here are good. Still, I'm more than okay with Bradley continuing the way he has for the rest of the year.