Brandon Winokur is Developing into the Player the Twins Always Envisioned

[Dman]

2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

 

The Rule 5 draft for him this upcoming offseason will be interesting.

He's a High School pick not college so 2027 until they have to add him.

[DocBauer]

PERSONAL COMMENTARY: I just find it fascinating that some fans can be so down on ownership and the build of the current team...not to mention the dive down following the end of the 2023 season...that they can't appreciate a little good news about a very talented prospect doing well. Dislike my comment, give me a thumbs down, whatever you feel like doing. It's just an observation that I don't understand. 

NOW, back to our regularly scheduled program:

Prospect rankings are fun, but they are also fickle. How do YOU like to rank prospects is always an issue. IMO, Winokur is one of the Twins top prospects based on talent and projection. It took a big payday to keep him from going to college. But I actually like the college comp discussion. It's not a stretch at all, with his talent, that he might be a 1st round pick in the upcoming draft as a 21yo junior. And while he might go to A+ right away, he probably goes to A- for a couple of weeks to get an introduction, and then moves up to A+ to finish the season.

Meanwhile, Brandon is off on a HEATER after a slow April, a great month of May, and might just be at AA July 1st barring something bad happening.

I will admit to only seeing him a little bit at SS. What I have seen is a few clunkers where it looked too many body parts in motion all at once, and awkward missed plays. And then I see those parts work in unison and he makes a great snare and a rocket throw...many times off balance...straight to 1B. Reminds me of vintage Correa when it goes right.

I just don't think that is his future, and I think the Twins agree. (BTW, the Twins philosophy is to keep someone at SS as long as possible as it will only help them be better 3B or 2B in the long run). He's now playing more 3B and CF. And that's where he belongs, and where his defensive chops should be honed.

I've said this for a while now, I think he has the potential to be the next CF following Buxton. Rodriguez and Jenkins are FINE CF. But IMO, Winokur has not only good speed, but a long frame that could add a couple of pounds and still not lose any speed. I dare say he's at least as fast as Rodriguez and Jenkins, but might maintain his speed longer. 

But he's more than athletic enough to be a prime 3B prospect depending on how the Twins INF looks 2yrs from now. Does Lee continue to develop defensively at 3B? Does his improved but still somewhat inconsistent bat continue to develop as well? (And Lee HAS improved this season). Even if K-Pepper is as good of a SS as he seems to be...almost certainly better than we have currently...what if Houston's BAT is at least solid? His glove just might be special. So then there is a potential shift somewhere in the INF that I'm just not going to get in to right now. 

Some say Winokur is a "show me" since he's repeating A+ again. Really? That's a legitimate arguement? There aren't a ton of 20yo at A+ to begin with who perform well. And there's also not a lot of 21yo who produce the way he is currently at A+. As has been pointed out, for whatever reason, he had a bad and disappointing April. May came, and he has RAKED after a slow start to the season. While the K % is still higher than I'd like, it's also mitigated by a higher AVG, OB, BB numbers etc.

I agree he's by no means a finished product. His April vs May splits indicate he's on the right track. I have no problem waiting to see what he does in June...same for Houston BTW...but I think he's about ready for AA come July 1st.

And no matter his ramp up at AA, as a 21yo with his talent and potential, we should be encouraged by that promotion. He may NEVER be a good ML player. That would be a shame. Because based on pure talent, he's right up there with Rodriguez and Jenkins. 

For those who question if he's a wasted talent at 1B? It COULD happen. It's possible Lee or K-Pepper are established at 3B. And it's possible one of Rodriguez or Jenkins or Fountain of Youth Buxton is sitting in CF, and MAYBE his best opening is at 1B. Having a big, athletic 1B who can steal bases and crush HR is NOT a waste of athletic talent, as some have suggested. 

Imagine a 1B who can scoop everything, chase down foul balls and pop ups with the best of them, who can steal 20+ bases and crush 20-30 HR. Would that be a waste of talent?

I think 1B is a "fall back" IF there isn't a staeting spot at 3B or one of the OF spots. Hmmm....unlikely...but it COULD happen. But NO, he wouldn't be a waste at 1B.

The speed is there. The power is there. The athleticism is there. It's ALL about his BAT. And with apologies to some old school believers, if he can MAINTAIN a 30% K rate...NOT saying I wouldn't like it lower...but still HIT in the .250-.260 range and still have an above .300 OB% to go along with a good glove, a great arm, and power and speed, you have a potential All Star player.

It all comes down to the BAT. He's got the other 4 tools. Can he just continue to HIT well enough to be a ML ballplayer. I'm very encouraged by his May after a surprisingly poor April. But this kid is a TALENT.  And really, we should all be rooting for him as much as anyone in the system based on that talent.

 

[mnfireman]

15 hours ago, Linus said:

I see lots of suggestions to move him to first. That would be a mistake in my opinion. He has great athletic ability and should stay as high on the defensive spectrum as possible. If you have a chance to be a plus CF you don’t move him to first. Of course, he has to hit for any of it to matter. I know lots of people don’t want him playing SS but this isn’t an Austin Martin situation who was never going to be a SS. Winokur has all the tools to be a good SS and if he shows that he becomes that much more valuable to the Twins or to another organization as a trade chip. As we’ve seen, there aren’t many guys with the tools to be a legit SS so they become inherently valuable. 

I'll take my chances with Culpepper and Houston at SS, not to mention Keaschall, Lee (both already MLB) and Young ahead of him on the IF, plus Jenkins, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, and Mendez in the OF. The Twins have zero prospects at 1B, and his profile looks pretty good there.

[shimrod]

13 hours ago, Linus said:

I see lots of suggestions to move him to first. That would be a mistake in my opinion. He has great athletic ability and should stay as high on the defensive spectrum as possible.

This is why the Twins first base position has been a black hole for decades. The team needs to see you fail everywhere else before you begin learning to play there. 

I'd love to see the Twins give this kid a first base mitt and the rest of his minor league career to become proficient. His length is more beneficial at first than either center or third. It was infuriating watching the Twins accumulate throwing errors because the likes of Solano and Arraez couldn't reach a high or wide throw. It's just as infuriating watching the current Twins bungle one-hop throws that proficient first basemen handle with ease. A capable first baseman would improve the entire infield defense. That kind of capability is best developed over years of practice.

Clemens actually shows the potential, with enough practice, to play an adequate first base. So of course the Twins are now cycling him through the outfield. Asking a 30 year old journeyman to learn the position at the MLB level is not ideal. 

The Twins disdain for first base defense is hard to fathom. 

 

[tony&rodney]

There doesn't need to be any concern about where Winokur plays defensively. If he can manage to rise through the system and reach MLB, it will be because he has learned to hit and produce offense on a consistent basis. The defense is already really good and would improve with repetitions, no matter the position. The speed, power, arm, and defense are above average. The hit tool is still a work in progress.

[MinnInPa]

get back to us when he gets that K ratio down to 20% or less... hes still young..time to learn...i see maybe 2-4 years more in the minors

[mnfireman]

38 minutes ago, MinnInPa said:

get back to us when he gets that K ratio down to 20% or less... hes still young..time to learn...i see maybe 2-4 years more in the minors

Let's hope its closer to 2 years instead of 4, this team doesn't like to promote 25 year old position players...

[Hunter4848]

11 hours ago, Wedman13 said:

The heck with those not in reality.  Clearly Roch, Lackey and Flora have passed their prime.  Dump the pick!

who in gods name, other than those in lala land would want a 6'5 athlete trending to 18hrs, 30+SB's and an OPS of .870 at 21.?   Not worth a flier at all....

The man is in single A...

[saviking]

21 hours ago, bean5302 said:

What a glowing review for a guy who:
1) Is not generating a lot of power (.177 ISO).
2) Is generating almost no well hit fly balls.
3) Is striking out 30.0% of the time in A+
4) Has been entirely moved off SS.

It's not like Winokur is a lost cause, but I don't feel like his changes are exciting right now.

Raw power, starting to hit for average, .389 OBP (which is phenominal) considering he can steal bases at a rapid clips. 

Kid's only 21 and he's doing this in AA .. I expect him to be a key contributor for the Twins in a few more years. 

 

Great article!

[MinnInPa]

5 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Let's hope its closer to 2 years instead of 4, this team doesn't like to promote 25 year old position players...

I just dont see vast improvement from a year in AA(2027) .. then a year in AAA(2028).. hitting 95mph+ fastballs is not easy and pitch recognition doesnt come easy .. you either have it ..or you dont.. i just dont see guys that are K Kings moving up the ranks...ever become impactful Major leaguers..hopefully he proves me wrong

[Mike Sixel]

Big fan. Hope he plays third and CF exclusively the rest of the year.