Austin Martin, Brooks Lee, and a Changing Developmental Blueprint

[KirbyDome89]

Lee did this last year too; he clustered a few homers and people starting gushing about the power and prognosticating. 10 days ago he was basically unplayable, now he's suddenly an example of development? Eh. The same point made in the Wallner article the other day applies to Lee as well; the peaks have always been bookended by valleys. A 106 OPS+ is good for Lee, but if he's a black hole 80% of the time at the plate a few homers doesn't make him a league average hitter, i.e. how he gets there matters. That's the Joey Gallo argument all over again. 

I'm more optimistic about Martin. Idk if his early season results are the result of facing more LH pitching and/or BABIP fueled, but he at least looked like a usable player to end last season. 

It's May 1st...

[KirbyDome89]

5 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Wallner's been given a pretty short leash, historically. As have some other young sluggers with the Twins in recent history. He got demoted fast in 2023. He got demoted fast in 2024. Calls to demote him come quick.

Not saying he didn't need the demotions.

Wallner got his cup of coffee in April of 2023 and was a permanent fixture by the end of May. Not what I'd call a short leash. 

He was terrible to start 2024, and it took him nearly 2 months in AAA to turn it around. That Twins squad was trying to win games. How long should they have let him scuffle along at the MLB level? 

He was the everyday RF (despite being a negative defender) and the bat didn't do enough to carry him. 

We know what the first month of the season has looked like. How much longer should the leash be?

[bean5302]

5 hours ago, Jeff K said:

Wallner needs a demotion...yesterday.

 

2 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Wallner got his cup of coffee in April of 2023 and was a permanent fixture by the end of May. Not what I'd call a short leash. 

He was terrible to start 2024, and it took him nearly 2 months in AAA to turn it around. That Twins squad was trying to win games. How long should they have let him scuffle along at the MLB level? 

He was the everyday RF (despite being a negative defender) and the bat didn't do enough to carry him. 

We know what the first month of the season has looked like. How much longer should the leash be?

Remember that part of my post you didn't fully read before mashing "quote?" Yeah, that part.

[Jeff K]

12 hours ago, bean5302 said:

 

Remember that part of my post you didn't fully read before mashing "quote?" Yeah, that part.

I was agreeing with you.  

[jmlease1]

15 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Lee did this last year too; he clustered a few homers and people starting gushing about the power and prognosticating. 10 days ago he was basically unplayable, now he's suddenly an example of development? Eh. The same point made in the Wallner article the other day applies to Lee as well; the peaks have always been bookended by valleys. A 106 OPS+ is good for Lee, but if he's a black hole 80% of the time at the plate a few homers doesn't make him a league average hitter, i.e. how he gets there matters. That's the Joey Gallo argument all over again. 

I'm more optimistic about Martin. Idk if his early season results are the result of facing more LH pitching and/or BABIP fueled, but he at least looked like a usable player to end last season. 

It's May 1st...

I don't understand the argument that the homers that a player hits don't actually matter. 

We'll see where Lee ends up and whether or not what he's currently doing is sustainable, but he's increased his triple slash in every category; this isn't just improvement by boosting the SLG and nothing else. Right now he's not a black hole 80% at the plate (in fact, he's never been a black hole 80% of the time; even in his first season he had an OBP of .265, so at worst he could have only been a "black hole" 73% of the time...) and it's not just been the last 10 days that have put him there.

It is funny to hear Lee compared to Gallo: they're so unalike at the plate it's hilarious. Gallo was a very selective hitter who swung very hard, missed a lot, but also made very hard contact when he did connect. Lee swings a lot more, doesn't swing nearly as hard, makes a lot more weak contact, but also still puts up higher batting averages.

If Lee can keep chasing less and swing with more authority on balls he can do damage with, rather than just getting his bat on everything he can reach, he can continue to progress. The fact that to date in his MLB career he's improved at the plate in every season should be encouraging.

[KirbyDome89]

22 hours ago, bean5302 said:

 

Remember that part of my post you didn't fully read before mashing "quote?" Yeah, that part.

If he's earning the demotions I don't understand the whining about short leashes, or in other threads the mental anguish said leashes create. 

[KirbyDome89]

10 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I don't understand the argument that the homers that a player hits don't actually matter. 

We'll see where Lee ends up and whether or not what he's currently doing is sustainable, but he's increased his triple slash in every category; this isn't just improvement by boosting the SLG and nothing else. Right now he's not a black hole 80% at the plate (in fact, he's never been a black hole 80% of the time; even in his first season he had an OBP of .265, so at worst he could have only been a "black hole" 73% of the time...) and it's not just been the last 10 days that have put him there.

It is funny to hear Lee compared to Gallo: they're so unalike at the plate it's hilarious. Gallo was a very selective hitter who swung very hard, missed a lot, but also made very hard contact when he did connect. Lee swings a lot more, doesn't swing nearly as hard, makes a lot more weak contact, but also still puts up higher batting averages.

If Lee can keep chasing less and swing with more authority on balls he can do damage with, rather than just getting his bat on everything he can reach, he can continue to progress. The fact that to date in his MLB career he's improved at the plate in every season should be encouraging.

I didn't say HRs don't matter. I said he clustered some homers and people started prognosticating. You left out the part that after his little mini power surge last year he went right back to being the unplayable version we he was prior and/or to start this season. 

Yeah, again, we're talking about Brooks Lee in the midst of a heater. It's much easier to pump up numbers in late April or early May as opposed to late July or early August. 

.208/.269/.347 was his triple slash 10 days ago.  His OPS has gone up nearly 100 points. I mean....

I didn't say they were the same hitter. I said how he produces matters. Some people were adamant that Gallo was an average offensive performer because he'd occasionally show up and pop a homer. If you watched him play even semi regularly you know that wasn't the case. He was an albatross far more often than he contributed. 

He hasn't turned in even an ok offensive season in two tries, and he's closing in on 1,000 PAs. It's pretty close to sink or swim for Lee right now. Idk if that's all that encouraging. 

[stringer bell]

While @KirbyDome89 makes several good points about the sustainability of Lee's recent success, his overall numbers right now are decent for a starting shortstop. Despite being rated as one of the poorer fielders at short, he has a positive WAR (.4) which projected over a full season would be 2.0 WAR (marginal ML starter). His hitting in the past few weeks should be counted as no more or no less an indication of his future than his first two weeks, when he was hitting .167 with minimal power.

Can Lee become an much above-average hitter? The underlying measures don't look especially promising, he doesn't generate plus bat speed or exit velocity and he chases too much. Perhaps better control of the strike zone can help his hitting as it certainly has for Austin Martin. Being ahead of counts and finding pitches to drive are ways to make the offensive profile look much better.

Defensively, I can't see Brooks Lee as ever being secure at shortstop. Any big league manager or front office would like to see a guy with more range and arm at the position. That said, I think Brooks has had his best defensive week at short (I haven't seen all of the games so I may be way off) and has looked more comfortable playing in the field. 

[stringer bell]

On 5/1/2026 at 3:10 PM, jorgenswest said:

I think the change came in 2025. It wasn’t a return to college days. He worked to improve his bat speed. It is still below league average but up a couple of ticks. The result was more hard hit balls according to statcast. 

 

I believe you are referring to Martin. Slightly improved bat speed is helpful, for sure. I think Austin has been aided more than almost anyone by the consistent redefined strike zone due to ABS. His chase percentage is nearly 100th percentile as is his walk percentage. That is astounding for a guy with much below average power. I'm all for him getting more playing time as long as he continues to be an on-base machine.

[DJL44]

On 5/1/2026 at 4:33 PM, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Are you saying you would want Margot or Gallo on this years Twins' team?

Either would be more helpful than Outman. The player I really wanted was Roden but he's on the IL.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Either would be more helpful than Outman. The player I really wanted was Roden but he's on the IL.

Maybe Margot could pinch hit in the late innings. And Gallo can bring the post-game wine. 

[bean5302]

17 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

If he's earning the demotions I don't understand the whining about short leashes, or in other threads the mental anguish said leashes create. 

I'm pointing out the irony for advocating Brooks Lee got an unfair shake despite having a very long leash while arguing Matt Wallner should get a quick hook for being terrible and looking overwhelmed.

Both of them have sucked at the plate and in the field for at least short to medium length periods. Nice to see Lee getting some results lately, though.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Either would be more helpful than Outman. The player I really wanted was Roden but he's on the IL.

Lets revisit just how bad Margot was as a pinch hitter, shall we? Oh, and Margot was also bad at fielding. LOL

[DJL44]

17 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Let’s revisit just how bad Margot was as a pinch hitter, shall we? Oh, and Margot was also bad at fielding. LOL

I expect Outman would be just as useless as a pinch hitter. 76 OPS+ sucks but it beats the hell out of a 40 OPS+.