Bailey Ober Trusts His Changeup a Lot Right Now. Everything Else is a Battle.

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Daniel Kucin Jr.-Imagn Images

You never see a pitcher for whom things are going well practicing their stance on the rubber or the way they break their hands in front of their locker in the clubhouse. There's plenty of space in the Twins' home clubhouse at Target Field, but not so much that anyone would be tempted to move meaningful practice off the field and into that space. Big-league ballplayers love to take up space, but in front of their lockers, they instinctively make themselves small. They don't move in big, unpredictable ways. They stay out of the walkway that runs right past each row of lockers.

On Tuesday afternoon, Bailey Ober had his glove on his hand and stood in front of his locker, thwacking a ball into the glove and practicing some of the key timing moments in his delivery. He was waiting for locker neighbor Mick Abel to be ready to head out to the field, but while he waited, he didn't chat breezily with the younger pitcher. They had an easy conversation going, but as Abel turned his attention to lacing up his spikes, Ober turned and became slightly absorbed by the back of his locker. It was the reverie of a man who's not happy with how his body is responding to his mind's commands, for whom that's a particularly big problem—because his body makes his living.

"It's just the way the body's working," Ober said of his slight reduction in arm angle this year. "There's some things I'm trying to balance, and I'm a little late [timing-wise], which leads to that."

His voice carried a peculiar mixture of optimism and frustration. Ober is a thoughtful and energetic player, though that energy manifests itself in a very quiet way. He's dedicated to his craft, and early in the season, he's excited by what's working—but it's also clear that he resents his own inability to iron out the mechanical issues he's been sifting through for the last year-plus. Some pitchers struggle, even with the guidance of pitching coaches, to identify and target flaws in their delivery. Ober, who has always been keenly aware of the challenges posed by his towering height, isn't one of those guys. He knows what he needs to do. He's doing it. Maddeningly, his body just won't hit the targets he commands it to hit, despite the best training he's been able to give it.

Thence comes the deficiency of velocity that jumps out most readily to fans, but that's not the only issue created by not being on time within his delivery—or even the most important one. Ober admitted that there are pitches (not just pitch types, but combinations of pitch type and location) he can't throw with much confidence right now, which limits his options. Most of his arsenal is going through a long period of having good days and bad days; he needs to reclaim the consistency that made his deep mix great a couple years ago.

For now, Ober is largely eschewing his slider to right-handed batters, because he feels he can better execute his sweeper. 'Execute,' in this case, means not only to throw the pitch where he wants to and with the shape he wants, but to tunnel its release and initial trajectory with another pitch the batter might be anticipating. The slider can't check all of those boxes right now, except in its more cutterish form, to lefty batters. Instead, Ober is going to the sweeper—but also to his changeup, even against righties.

"I'm not consciously leaning on it," he said Tuesday, "but I can really trust that pitch right now. And it doesn't really matter for me, lefty or righty, because I try to throw that pitch a lot like a splitter—focused on getting that [downward movement] on it. And I know that even if it runs in on a righty, I can sometimes jam them."

That's why, so far this season, Ober has thrown his changeup 48% of the time against left-handed batters and 29% of the time to righties. Last year, those numbers were 34% and 23%, respectively, and they were similar in 2024. The changeup is working. That's always been Ober's best pitch. The only problem, right now, is that it's the only one he fully trusts.

Good news can still be found in the mix. Ober's sweeper and curveball have bigger break this year. If he's stuck with the lower arm slot because of the way his body is unfolding and timing up its many movements, he might find some solace in more movement on his sinker, helping him attack righties despite the lost velocity. He expressed hope that, as the sinker comes along, he can use that pitch to keep righties looking inside, making the sweeper and even the four-seamer on the outer half more effective. 

Ober takes the mound again Wednesday night against the Tigers, with the Twins looking to secure their first series win of the year. His stuff isn't ready to take the big step forward both Ober and fans crave. However, he's feeling out his own pitch mix with each outing, and he's coming to a better understanding of how he can win with what he has. As long as the changeup keeps obeying him, he can keep relying on it, and that itself might make his fastballs look a bit faster. 

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[Patzky]

I hope Bailey continues to evolve into what his body permits him to do. We sure could use five innings out of him today!

[JD-TWINS]

His change-up and slider are adequate to get swings and misses & outs. The fastball velocity was never great - now, it’s borderline poor. Fastball location, location, location - IN ….. UP ….. DOWN. Can steal one over the plate every 4th or 5th guy. It’s not going to be easy!

Fastball usage has to drop to no more than 25-30% of his pitches to add to the surprise element of using it occasionally, over the plate & in the Zone.

[LambchoP]

He needs to be able to throw something other than the changeup to get outs. If it's not the fastball, maybe he can get a slider or curve working. I know it's early, but Over has me worried. Especially since there's nobody in AAA that looks ready for a call up 

[bean5302]

Ober needs to get his arm slot right if that's what is wiping his velo out. He can't survive as an MLB starter with 2 MLB caliber pitches.

[CRF]

Gotta somehow find a few more mph on that "heater". I don't know if he was healthy enough, but he should've hit Driveline over the winter.

[jmlease1]

I hope he can figure it out. I do love that change-up.

[h2oface]

Height wasn’t challenging to Randy Johnson. It was an advantage. Unfortunately, the only question now is how many games will Ober blow before he is dismissed. Sometimes things are so very clear but apologists just can’t bring themselves to admit it yet, and take action. This would include, in Ober’s case, a self apologist. 

[mikelink45]

A change up is a change of pace - when his fastball is the same as his changeup it will not work.  I wish him well, but I do not think this is the answer. 

[DocBauer]

What's so bizarre to me is Ober is not old, and he's reportedly healthy and the hip isn't bothering him. So where did the velocity go? With his extension and release point, his 92mph seemed more like 94. That was enough. But now his FB appears more like the equivalent of 91-92. And that changes how his other pitchers work/look. I wasn't aware that his slider hasn't felt "good" to him. 

I don't doubt he's got a mechanical issue that's frustrating him. I sure hope he figures it out. It's nice that the sweeper and curve are looking good. And maybe I'm over simplifying it, but could he, perhaps, throw some of his offerings a bit "slower" to create a larger discrepancy in velocity variance? A lot of pitching is changing "timing" to throw off the batters "timing". 

You simply CAN'T replace Lopez. But so far, Bradley is looking like he's trying his best to do so. That makes the Lopez injury all the more disheartening. What a top 4 we'd have with Lopez, Ryan, Bradley, and SWR. But alas, it is what it is.

IMO, Abel might be one of the most important players on the roster currently. He's off to a rough start as a "almost rookie" coming off a tremendous spring. The season is young. If he can SETTLE DOWN and start to pitch the way he did in ST, he's a super, young talent in the #4 spot. And Ober as a #5, while disappointing to be sure, has the experience, smarts, and moxie to be a solid #5 until/unless he can find something that feels good and WORKS.

His start against Detroit tonight/Wednesday, was very encouraging. Small steps.

Regardless, Abel is suddenly one of the most important players currently on the team. No pressure kid!