Twins 10, Rays 4: Tristan Gray Grand Slam Powers Home Opener Victory

[JD-TWINS]

34 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

At this point early on, Larnach looks locked in while Wallner looks completely lost at the plate. Not sure if Larnach can play RF opening up LF for Martin, but Wallner may need a reset in St. Paul. It worked last year anyways:). On the pitching side, I really worry about Ober. If he's only throwing 88-89 this early I don't think he's going to last. With Abel being a crapshoot and Zebby not looking good in AAA, I think they should really sign Giolito. That is if they really want to compete this year, which I'm not sure they really do....

Wallner was hurt when not at Target in ‘25 ……. played 19 games in ‘24 and went down for 10 weeks & then tore it up when back ……… in ‘23 he was up and down before finishing regular season strong (prior to playoffs). He has Options - my assumption is they give him another 8-10 starts before they make a move.

His demotion (re-set) allows them to get a look at Rodriguez or Roden or Gonzalez.

Larnach has been average to mostly above average against RH pitching for 3 years.

[Nshore]

Even though the performance of the Twins' bullpen hasn't been stellar so far, they've still been better than I expected - and are trending in a positive direction.  May the force of the Easter Bunny be with Latroy Hawkins in his quest to accomplish the impossible - a solid Twins' bullpen.

[karcherd]

Gray did what you want your bench players to do, he helped to contribute to a win with a nice hit.  But he is still what he is, a journeyman utility infielder.  You need your bench guys to contribute when they come in but that doesn't mean that success will translate when put in an every day role.  They need to give Lee a shot longer than 7 games or else he shouldn't have started the season as the starting SS.  If they move on, it needs to be to Culpepper, not a journeyman.  Clemens is a great example of some success doesn't translate to an every day role even though they are trying hard to make him into a regular.

Wallner needs to play, if by the end of May he doesn't start to produce then it may be time to move on.  Sending him down at this point, means he has no future with the team and it is way too early to consider.  They did this in 24 with him after only 25 ab's, every player can have struggles over a 25 ab stretch, you need to have some patience.

 

 

 

[laloesch]

13 hours ago, Old Twins Hat said:

Another ugly game among many.  Shocking how awful the Rays look and have played this early part of the season -- leading the league in errors, and in bullpen ERA.  Junior Caminero with 7 errors already?   

Kevin Cash, longest tenured manager in MLB, must be feeling insecure.

Sorry, but Ober's velocity does matter.  The Rays had four hard-hit doubles in four innings.  Ober threw 80 pitches before being pulled.  We can hope that a 6' 9" right-handed Jamie Moyer will be able to hold a spot in the rotation, but, reality is, with fast ball velocity dropping below 90, below 89, it's just not going to play against good teams.  I have loved watching him pitch, but now, it's cringe-worthy.

Wallner?  Five K's, some in big situations, and the Twins still score 10?  What an ugly game, only slightly more palatable than the 12-9 disaster in KC amidst a typhoon.

Will see what happens, but Keaschall is the Twins best player, and the next best 3 or 4 are currently playing in St. Paul. Hope Buck is okay but he has been striking out all spring, in WBC and now in the regular season.  Not a good look, and not looking good for the Twins -- terrible baserunning, indifferent defense, spotty hitting with RISP -- the best part of their team, hilariously enough, has been their bullpen!

Yes. Hopefully Culpepper and Rodriguez get the call soon. Jenkins will probably be in the fall but they need the reinforcements 

[JD-TWINS]

Assuming STRIKEOUT rate (%) is based on PA’s & not AB’s (not positive) …….. assuming PA’s:

Wallner - 45% … Jeffers - 29% … Clemens 37% … Lewis - 32% … Martin - 25% … Buxton - 31% … Bell - 33% … Lee - 36%

Martin & Buxton are arguably at acceptable levels for them. This is not a good profile for a Team’s line-up ..,….. 6-8 guys out of 13 are striking out at alarming rates.

Lee & Wallner both have Options and IMO neither will be on the 26 man roster by April 17th. If Clemens can’t play better defense at 1B,  he may be gone (DFA’d) by mid- May. Gray or Lee can be back-up at 2B & 3B. Larnach needs to be DH v. RH pitching with (Rodriguez or Roden or like) in LF v. RH pitching. Bell at 1B or Caratini at 1B.

10 hits Friday was somewhat encouraging (3-4 flairs) but the 6 walks & poor defense lead the charge!

Roden - Rodriguez - Culpepper & 1 other in next 15-40 days replacing Wallner - Lee - Outman - Clemens ……….. Clemens may hang because of versatility and attitude but certainly replaceable sooner than later.

Gray had a nice Sac Fly RBI to tie the game - then a Big Fly - he doesn’t seem to be any less of a defender than Lee …. 4 starts & 8 RBI …. very good “back-up” and probably the starter at SS v. RH pitching going forward, near term.

[Coach Wheels]

11 hours ago, ashbury said:

Brooks Lee was said to be out of the lineup due to illness today.  Wonder if he just got Wally Pipped? 

(Pipp's the guy reputed to have said "I took the two most expensive aspirins in history," after leaving the door open for Gehrig due to a headache. If it isn't true, it should be.)

I would play Gray until he has 3 straight games without hits. Either Lee gets better with the bat or the Twins move on.

[mikelink45]

18 hours ago, puckett_34 said:

Nice win. However, the platinum sombrero by Wallner is a bit…ouch. Guy might not be seeing it well early on…

I am down on Wallner - even though I want him to succeed.  He not only strikes out - he watches too many strikes.  I find that kind of batting very painful. 

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Assuming STRIKEOUT rate (%) is based on PA’s & not AB’s (not positive) …….. assuming PA’s:

Wallner - 45% … Jeffers - 29% … Clemens 37% … Lewis - 32% … Martin - 25% … Buxton - 31% … Bell - 33% … Lee - 36%

Martin & Buxton are arguably at acceptable levels for them. This is not a good profile for a Team’s line-up ..,….. 6-8 guys out of 13 are striking out at alarming rates.

Lee & Wallner both have Options and IMO neither will be on the 26 man roster by April 17th. If Clemens can’t play better defense at 1B,  he may be gone (DFA’d) by mid- May. Gray or Lee can be back-up at 2B & 3B. Larnach needs to be DH v. RH pitching with (Rodriguez or Roden or like) in LF v. RH pitching. Bell at 1B or Caratini at 1B.

10 hits Friday was somewhat encouraging (3-4 flairs) but the 6 walks & poor defense lead the charge!

Roden - Rodriguez - Culpepper & 1 other in next 15-40 days replacing Wallner - Lee - Outman - Clemens ……….. Clemens may hang because of versatility and attitude but certainly replaceable sooner than later.

Gray had a nice Sac Fly RBI to tie the game - then a Big Fly - he doesn’t seem to be any less of a defender than Lee …. 4 starts & 8 RBI …. very good “back-up” and probably the starter at SS v. RH pitching going forward, near term.

I agree with all your points - produce or move on.  Why waste time.  Wallner's Ks are killers.  His occasional HR can't offset all those wasted ABs.  He can do better and he should if he wants a career. 

[ashbury]

1 minute ago, mikelink45 said:

I am down on Wallner - even though I want him to succeed.  He not only strikes out - he watches too many strikes.  I find that kind of batting very painful. 

Concur.  I root for him for reasons I've laid out before and my hope this spring continues to be that coaching finds some subtle tweaks to help him fully unlock the potential.  There were hopeful signs but yesterday feels like back to square one.

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, Coach Wheels said:

I would play Gray until he has 3 straight games without hits. Either Lee gets better with the bat or the Twins move on.

How does Lee get better while not playing?

[RpR]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

How does Lee get better while not playing?

Do you mean , get better like Sano or Cave?

He created his problem.

[ashbury]

26 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

How does Lee get better while not playing?

Do what the coaches are telling him to do, now that he has spare time, and then put it into practice when he's given game opportunities such as (I see) tonight?

[Mike Sixel]

14 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Do what the coaches are telling him to do, now that he has spare time, and then put it into practice when he's given game opportunities such as (I see) tonight?

I was quoting someone saying Gray should keep playing? I mean, I agree with you, but that's not what I was asking. 

[JD-TWINS]

5 hours ago, Jeff K said:

I'm glad that Larnach is hitting pretty well.  Because he is a poor fielder, I haven't changed my perspective that he is in the way of the youngsters who look to be two way players.  I hope that Larnach is increasing his trade value and the Twins take advantage of that.  

Guys that “appear to be two way players” are hopefuls and Larnach, v. RH pitching, is one of Team’s top 3 hitters. He’s essentially a DH 65% of the time and in LF 10% of the time.

Wallner & Outman are the OF’s currently taking up space that might be utilized by up & coming guys.

Wishing a guy produces so that the Team can then trade him seems a bit illogical - since he is a very affordable $4.5M/yr …….. if guys behind him earn a spot later this year or into next year - great. As of now, there’s nobody I’d rather see face a RH pitcher after 7 games.

Bell is gone after this year. Larnach, if productive in ‘26 …….. on ‘23 - ‘24 levels (as a platoon v. RH pitching) he may get signed again for $5-6M for ‘27……..as primary DH.

5 hours ago, Jeff K said:

I'm glad that Larnach is hitting pretty well.  Because he is a poor fielder, I haven't changed my perspective that he is in the way of the youngsters who look to be two way players.  I hope that Larnach is increasing his trade value and the Twins take advantage of that.  

What would be expected in trade?

[JADBP]

48 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I agree with all your points - produce or move on.  Why waste time.  Wallner's Ks are killers.  His occasional HR can't offset all those wasted ABs.  He can do better and he should if he wants a career. 

Its the old Fedex ad:  its absolutely, positively has to be....time to move Wallner.  If we look at his start to the year, there is no way that he can continue on this trajectory.  He is striking out at a 45% rate.  Even Sano was 37%.  I know it is a small sampling, but 5 K's in one game?  Come on...how long can the Twins put up with this? 

He is one-dimensional...occasional power.  Everything else is [well] below average: running, hitting, fielding, He has a very strong arm, so you can say he has two tools, but if he can't get to the ball or throws it to the wrong base, what good does it do?  He 

Push him to AAA and see if he can start hitting.  He needs to take a lot more batting practice and I don't think he can accomplish this on the MLB team (without robbing other's of their practice time).  Bringing up Emma might indeed Wally Pipp him.  But that's Wallner's fault, not Emma's.  

Remember, Wally Pipp was not a bad player--just the opposite!  He was considered the best NYY hitter before Babe Ruth joined the team.  He hit over 100 RBI in 3 out of 4 years before he was replaced.  It was never that he was a bad player, he was simply replaced with a far better player.  Twins need to learn from history! 

Wallner will never be an Ortiz.  Time to let go.  

 

[Coach Wheels]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

How does Lee get better while not playing?

He can get better by practicing while Gray continues to hit. When he stops hitting, run Lee back out there.

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I agree with all your points - produce or move on.  Why waste time.  Wallner's Ks are killers.  His occasional HR can't offset all those wasted ABs.  He can do better and he should if he wants a career. 

Last year, (maybe I’ve cited too often here?) the exclamation point on his season was 41 XBH (22 HR) and only 40 RBI ………… to me, that seems nearly impossible mathematically. It screams that his is the epitome of NOT Clutch………. I’ve had these opinions refuted by “there weren’t guys on base when he came up” ……, my obvious thoughts are that he doesn’t hit when it matters. Seems people here are picking up on this in ‘26.

My new nickname for him is “tall Eddie Julien”. Continuously watching thigh high fastballs and then flailing at pitches above and below the zone. As we know, Matt struck out 5 times Friday - he also managed to strikeout, LOOKING, 3 times the previous game.

I moved from Minnesota 35 years ago so the fact that he’s from Forrest Lake doesn’t have any weight with my view. Talented, yes …….. effective, not often…….unbelievably streaky!

[mikelink45]

23 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Last year, (maybe I’ve cited too often here?) the exclamation point on his season was 41 XBH (22 HR) and only 40 RBI ………… to me, that seems nearly impossible mathematically. It screams that his is the epitome of NOT Clutch………. I’ve had these opinions refuted by “there weren’t guys on base when he came up” ……, my obvious thoughts are that he doesn’t hit when it matters. Seems people here are picking up on this in ‘26.

My new nickname for him is “tall Eddie Julien”. Continuously watching thigh high fastballs and then flailing at pitches above and below the zone. As we know, Matt struck out 5 times Friday - he also managed to strikeout, LOOKING, 3 times the previous game.

I moved from Minnesota 35 years ago so the fact that he’s from Forrest Lake doesn’t have any weight with my view. Talented, yes …….. effective, not often…….unbelievably streaky!

I have the same issues and you stated them well.  His HR/RBI is ridiculous.  Someone has to have some statistic that shows he is the only one in the lineup that comes up with no one on base.  Of course we have seen that disproved already this year. 

[Jeff K]

17 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Guys that “appear to be two way players” are hopefuls and Larnach, v. RH pitching, is one of Team’s top 3 hitters. He’s essentially a DH 65% of the time and in LF 10% of the time.

Wallner & Outman are the OF’s currently taking up space that might be utilized by up & coming guys.

Wishing a guy produces so that the Team can then trade him seems a bit illogical - since he is a very affordable $4.5M/yr …….. if guys behind him earn a spot later this year or into next year - great. As of now, there’s nobody I’d rather see face a RH pitcher after 7 games.

Bell is gone after this year. Larnach, if productive in ‘26 …….. on ‘23 - ‘24 levels (as a platoon v. RH pitching) he may get signed again for $5-6M for ‘27……..as primary DH.

What would be expected in trade?

Depends on whether he increases his value.  Probably an ok relief pitcher but not much.  The Twins are going nowhere and need to increase their athleticism/fielding.  Let's see what the youngsters can do.  Outman is definitely in the way.  Wallner...who knows?

[ashbury]

18 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Someone has to have some statistic that shows he is the only one in the lineup that comes up with no one on base.  

Not literally, no.  But b-r.com does provide splits for 2025.

Bases empty: 5th most PA on the team. He batted .191 but with enough walks and XBH to OPS .791.

Men on base: 10th on the team in PA, batted 227 with an .800 OPS.

(Buxton suffered a similar fate - led the team in runnerless PA, 4th on the team in opportunities with runners.)

There are plenty of criticisms to offer about Wallner's situational splits and I've made them, but it's also fair to note the difference in opportunity.

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, ashbury said:

Not literally, no.  But b-r.com does provide splits for 2025.

Bases empty: 5th most PA on the team. He batted .191 but with enough walks and XBH to OPS .791.

Men on base: 10th on the team in PA, batted 227 with an .800 OPS.

(Buxton suffered a similar fate - led the team in runnerless PA, 4th on the team in opportunities with runners.)

There are plenty of criticisms to offer about Wallner's situational splits and I've made them, but it's also fair to note the difference in opportunity.

Another one RBI home run today. Totally his fault he only got one. 

[ashbury]

14 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Another one RBI home run today. Totally his fault he only got one. 

This season remains small sample size, and even more so if you split those stats even one way.  Nevertheless, you will not like the shape of his 2026 splits so far, bases-empty versus men-on, if you look (before or after today's game).  The post you replied to was an attempt to provide balance, but the overall picture for situational hitting remains Not Good.  I appreciate a home run that puts his team up by a run, but overall his WPA remains "death by a thousand cuts" that outweigh the good of those solo shots.