Bailey Ober. Right-on-Right Changeups, and How This is All Going to Work

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

Though he surrendered five hits and a walk, Bailey Ober allowed just one run and struck out two over 2 2/3 innings Thursday, in his second appearance of the Cactus League season. He threw 53 pitches, of which the Red Sox swung at 24, and induced seven whiffs. Five of those seven whiffs came on his signature pitch: the changeup.

There were encouraging signs, then, but there were also some red flags. Ober's fastball sat around 89 MPH in the first inning (though he reached 90.7 on one sinker in that frame). By the third, he was barely sitting 88. The story of Ober's 2025 was an inability to consistently show his usual, excellent command, which was a result of nagging injury issues. However, another manifestation of those hip and other problems was diminished velocity, and with Ober, any loss of speed reduces his margin for error almost to zero.

When he's commanding his whole arsenal well, he can maneuver within even that zone of necessary perfection. He's dependent not on power, but on precision and execution. He has to be able to produce the pitch shapes he wants and hit his spots, more than he needs to have the ability to overpower hitters or put them on the defensive. Even last year, in an otherwise frustrating campaign, there were a few days when he was brilliant, because a pitcher who can manipulate the ball as deftly as Ober often can is a dream to watch and a nightmare to face.

Some of that was on display Thursday. Ober showed good command of his changeup, which has long been the most important part of his arsenal. He induced five whiffs and got one called strike on 19 total changeups. Three of the whiffs came against one batter, the utterly stumped Marcelo Mayer, but it was still a positive sign. Ober's changeup showed great depth, and he was able to both land it in the zone and throw the strike-to-ball version designed to induce chases outside the zone.

The other two whiffs came against right-handed batters, though, and so did his lone called strike with that pitch. Of the 36 total pitches he threw to righties, 12 were changeups. That's an important development.

For each of the last three years, Ober has thrown the changeup a little more than a third of the time to lefties, and a little under a quarter of the time to righties. Holding those usage rates constant might work, but ideally, he could ratchet each up slightly this year, without overexposing the pitch. He needs to better protect his fastball, which doesn't miss bats the way it did two years ago and looks very unlikely to start doing so again. However, Ober's slider was a major problem last year, and doesn't look like a reliable pitch for him against either lefties or righties at this stage. His sweeper is better against righties; his curve works better against lefties. But neither of those pitches can be his main alternative to the fastball, if he wants to reduce his reliance on that offering. 

Throwing the changeup a bit more to lefties shouldn't be a problem, if he has command of it the way he did on Thursday. (If he doesn't have that command, he's in big trouble, anyway.) Going to the changeup in right-on-right matchups, however, is often uncomfortable for pitchers. It's easy to understand why. The natural movement of that pitch is down and in toward a same-handed batter, so if the pitch isn't well-located, it runs right into an opponent's barrel. Because it's usually a pitch used to move off the outside corner to opposite-handed batters, it can also be hard for a pitcher to get used to starting the ball in a different place. A good changeup to a same-handed batter needs to start lower but farther toward the glove side, so its movement will keep it on the plate but get below the zone. Running it off the edge the way one does against an opposite-handed batter makes for an easy take (and sometimes a relatively painless trip to first base for the batter, via plunking). Leaving it in the lower, arm-side third of the zone, the way one often does to opposite-handed batters, makes for mashed taters.

Here's where Ober threw his changeups against lefty batters last season.

The difference between that distribution and the same plot for righty batters is subtle, but it's there.

When Ober's on (as he was Thursday), he can manipulate that changeup well enough to attack hitters on both sides with it. He changes start lines on the pitch; he changes its shape; and he still finds his targets. However, it's hard to count on having such good feel for that pitch as often as he will need to in 2026. For fans, how well he can utilize the changeup—especially to righties—is the thing to watch from start to start all spring. For Ober, the tough task ahead is to establish a new level of consistency with that offering, to make up for the diminishment of much of the rest of his repertoire.

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[strumdatjag]

How many slo-mo, Bruce Chen types succeed as starters.  Move Bailey to the pen.   

[flags]

16 minutes ago, strumdatjag said:

How many slo-mo, Bruce Chen types succeed as starters.  Move Bailey to the pen.   

Greg Maddux?

[Taildragger8791]

4 minutes ago, flags said:

Greg Maddux?

There's a reason his name is the only one that always comes up in these conversations.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, flags said:

Greg Maddux?

 

1 hour ago, Taildragger8791 said:

There's a reason his name is the only one that always comes up in these conversations.

Maddux in his career twilight was not Maddux when he came up. He threw pretty hard as a younger pitcher. He evolved as he lost velocity. Same as some other elite HoF style pitchers like Kershaw and Greinke.

[bean5302]

It's nice that Ober was able to get through a Spring Training lineup throwing 88-89mph. The fact he gave up 5 hits and a walk in 2-2/3rds innings, plus a hit by pitch shouldn't be swept under the rug. His xFIP was 5.35.

We know what happens against a full, tuned up MLB lineup and it ain't pretty. I think we can all feel it's likely Ober delayed his first start while he looked for velo which isn't there anymore. The Twins should be willing to consider trading him now or sending him to AAA to open the season and work on his velo if it's not back in his next start.

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, flags said:

Greg Maddux?

I loved Maddux.

But Greg Maddux with a defined and automated strike zone wouldn't have been Greg Maddux.

[Matthew Trueblood]

6 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

It's nice that Ober was able to get through a Spring Training lineup throwing 88-89mph. Not mentioned is the fact he gave up 5 hits and a walk in 2-2/3rds innings, plus a hit by pitch.

Mentioned a little, in that those were the first words of the article..,

"Though he surrendered five hits and a walk, Bailey Ober allowed just one run and struck out two over 2 2/3 innings Thursday,"

1 hour ago, strumdatjag said:

How many slo-mo, Bruce Chen types succeed as starters.  Move Bailey to the pen.   

"Bruce Chen types" is too dismissive of what Ober can still do, imo. Chen threw 84-86. Nine guys other than Ober threw 40+% of their fastballs at 88-91 last year; four of the nine had better-than-average ERAs. I don't think velocity is the litmus test you're trying to make it; throwing slower just means you have to be better at the other stuff, as I discussed above.

[nicksaviking]

If a new level of consistency is a consistent 89 MPH fastball, that's not going to work. Consistently throwing a change up isn't going to work either. 

Ober was a great find by the Twins, and it's been a great run, but it's looking like it's going to be a short run. Really sucks. For the fans, but even more for him because it's looking like his shoulder isn't going to get him to a large multi year free agent deal or extension.

 

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

Mentioned a little, in that those were the first words of the article..,

"Though he surrendered five hits and a walk, Bailey Ober allowed just one run and struck out two over 2 2/3 innings Thursday,"

"Bruce Chen types" is too dismissive of what Ober can still do, imo. Chen threw 84-86. Nine guys other than Ober threw 40+% of their fastballs at 88-91 last year; four of the nine had better-than-average ERAs. I don't think velocity is the litmus test you're trying to make it; throwing slower just means you have to be better at the other stuff, as I discussed above.

Yeah, it was too critical. I edited my post while you were responding.

The issue with Ober is really what we've seen when he throws 88-89 already. He isn't effective. He was't effective today, either. Many pitchers flame out after they lose 2 mph on their fastball. It's abnormal for pitchers to continue their success, actually, and Ober was not a dominant pitcher before. 

He was a #4ish kind of guy. Losing 2mph for a guy like Ober means you expect him to be a non-viable starter due to the decline.

[TJSweens]

"Bailey Ober allowed just one run and struck out two over 2 2/3 innings Thursday, in his second appearance of the Cactus League season."

That's the Citrus League. 

If Ober is throwing 89 in spring, that is a bad sign. He is not a pitcher who gains velocity as they move into the season. 

[arby58]

6 hours ago, Taildragger8791 said:

There's a reason his name is the only one that always comes up in these conversations.

There are others, but Maddux is the obvious answer, since he's in the HOF. Here's ones I've seen pitch that rarely got above 90 mph but were still effective MLB starting pitchers:

Mark Buerhle
Bartolo Colon
Randy Jones (way below 90)
Jamie Moyer
Kyle Hendricks
Nestor Cortes

For that matter, Logan Webb (he of the U.S. WBC starting pitcher) rarely gets above 92 mph.

[DarrenPS]

7 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The Twins should be willing to consider trading him now or sending him to AAA to open the season and work on his velo if it's not back in his next start.

He doesn't have any options remaining, he's either on the opening day roster, cut, or traded.

I think you have to ride it out and see how it goes. He should get 2 more starts before the season, we can pray for a 2 MPH increase

[cheeseheadgophfan]

8 hours ago, bean5302 said:

It's nice that Ober was able to get through a Spring Training lineup throwing 88-89mph. The fact he gave up 5 hits and a walk in 2-2/3rds innings, plus a hit by pitch shouldn't be swept under the rug. His xFIP was 5.35.

We know what happens against a full, tuned up MLB lineup and it ain't pretty. I think we can all feel it's likely Ober delayed his first start while he looked for velo which isn't there anymore. The Twins should be willing to consider trading him now or sending him to AAA to open the season and work on his velo if it's not back in his next start.

Of those 5 hits, I think one was hit hard, IIRC.....

[Major League Ready]

7 hours ago, DarrenPS said:

He doesn't have any options remaining, he's either on the opening day roster, cut, or traded.

I think you have to ride it out and see how it goes. He should get 2 more starts before the season, we can pray for a 2 MPH increase

According to FanGraphs, Bailey Ober has 1 option remaining.  He looks like depth at this point.  I would start the season with him but move him to STP for depth if he is ineffective.  I would rather see Matthews or Able get innings to further their development.  

 

[Doctor Wu]

17 hours ago, strumdatjag said:

How many slo-mo, Bruce Chen types succeed as starters.

Gotta give you points for using Bruce Chen as a comparison. Hadn't thought about him in many years!

[bean5302]

11 hours ago, DarrenPS said:

He doesn't have any options remaining, he's either on the opening day roster, cut, or traded.

I think you have to ride it out and see how it goes. He should get 2 more starts before the season, we can pray for a 2 MPH increase

1 MiLB option from what I'm seeing on Fangraphs, and he doesn't have 5.000+ years of service time to refuse.

[bean5302]

10 hours ago, cheeseheadgophfan said:

Of those 5 hits, I think one was hit hard, IIRC.....

1st inning - Story 96mph off the bat from an 89mph fastball, double.
2nd inning - Monasterio 102mph off the bat from an 89mph sinker, single.
2nd inning - Campbell 100mph off the bat from an 82mph slider, GIDP
3rd inning - Durbin 92mph off the bat from 88mph fastball, single
3rd inning - IKF 97mph off the bat from 82mph slider, single

plus a walk and a HBP

xFIP 5.35.

[DarrenPS]

6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

1 MiLB option from what I'm seeing on Fangraphs, and he doesn't have 5.000+ years of service time to refuse.

Even if true, expecting him to start in AAA is insanity and wrong

[cheeseheadgophfan]

13 hours ago, bean5302 said:

1st inning - Story 96mph off the bat from an 89mph fastball, double.
2nd inning - Monasterio 102mph off the bat from an 89mph sinker, single.
2nd inning - Campbell 100mph off the bat from an 82mph slider, GIDP
3rd inning - Durbin 92mph off the bat from 88mph fastball, single
3rd inning - IKF 97mph off the bat from 82mph slider, single

plus a walk and a HBP

xFIP 5.35.

Did you watch the game??

1st inning double legit

2nd inning single between 2nd and third....hit hard....a foot either way and it's an out.

2nd inning....are you upset he got a ground ball double play???  LMAO---it was a jam shot.  if that was 100 mph, better check your radar gun.  No freaking way.

3rd inning---Durbin's hit was a borderline bleeder that hit off Royce's glove.  Again....watch the game.   The radar gone is ridiculous.  

3rd inning IKF opened up on a curve and muscled it over Lee's head.  He looked to mistime his jump.  It wasn't hit hard.  Take the radar gun and stick it.  

[bean5302]

15 hours ago, cheeseheadgophfan said:

Did you watch the game??

1st inning double legit

2nd inning single between 2nd and third....hit hard....a foot either way and it's an out.

2nd inning....are you upset he got a ground ball double play???  LMAO---it was a jam shot.  if that was 100 mph, better check your radar gun.  No freaking way.

3rd inning---Durbin's hit was a borderline bleeder that hit off Royce's glove.  Again....watch the game.   The radar gone is ridiculous.  

3rd inning IKF opened up on a curve and muscled it over Lee's head.  He looked to mistime his jump.  It wasn't hit hard.  Take the radar gun and stick it.  

You're the one who implied Ober wasn't giving up hard contact. Looks like after I put a bunch of holes in that with facts you want to change the subject again?

Let me add you to the ignore list, lol.