Buying prospects by taking on bad contracts

[DJL44]

If the Twins decide to sell Lopez, Ryan, Buxton, Jeffers and Ober they would end up with a payroll less than $45M for 2026. That gets them into MLB grievance territory. Generally, a rebuilding team is going to play young players who don't earn much more than the minimum. The teams who are interested in buying talent from the Twins are big spenders who are either close to or over the luxury tax. If they're trying to win now, they want to shed any dead payroll and would be willing to give up minor league talent to do so. In addition, a bad contract for a team over the luxury tax counts higher than the contract value because of penalties they have to incur.

The benefit for the Twins is two-fold. One, they are able to acquire more and better prospects by taking on high value contracts that other teams no longer want. Two, as those contracts get paid down with time, the value of the asset they acquired can only go up. It's possible the Twins can acquire a player, pay them for a while and flip them elsewhere later.

Here are some overvalued contracts from teams rumored to be interested in trading for Twins players.

Sean Manea - Mets: He received CYA votes in 2024 and his peripherals were good in 2025, though his health wasn't. Owed $50M over 2 seasons with $14M deferred. Could eventually turn into a tradeable asset, or at least good enough to dump the remaining salary elsewhere.

Masataka Yoshida - Red Sox: A 32-year-old DH with $18.6M owed for each of the next two seasons. Gets on base, but the Twins have no need for another left-handed hitting DH.

Eduardo Rodriguez - Diamondbacks: A bad pitcher on a terrible contract pitching for a team trying to cut payroll from all-time highs. Owed $40M over 2 years. Maybe the bullpen is his future?

Aaron Nola - Phillies: A borderline Hall of Fame talent for his era but his remaining 5 years, $120M looks like an anchor. Contract runs too long for the Twins to want to risk taking it all on.

Nick Castellanos - Phillies: Owed $20M for 2026, this contract is over quickly. I don't expect him to enjoy playing for the Twins at all and I don't expect the Twins to be able to turn him into a tradeable asset. They would be better off releasing him if they acquired his salary.

Teoscar Hernandez - Dodgers: Conveniently makes about the same salary as Byron Buxton over the same time period (3 years $45M). Has been rumored to be available as the Dodgers look to reallocate money. Still a solid, everyday player. Probably works best if there is a 3-team deal because the Twins will be looking to unload him immediately.

Tommy Edman - Dodgers: 4 years left on his deal at $12M a season. Also more likely to end up elsewhere in a 3-team deal rather than having the Twins keep him.

Blake Treinen - Dodgers: Owed $13.5M for 2026, he would look a lot more attractive at the trade deadline with only $8-9M remaining on the contract. Would be the Twins closer until then.

Hyesong Kim - Dodgers: Would be a starting infielder for the Twins at a modest $4M salary for each of the next two seasons. Also has club options at $5M for 2028 and 2029. Had a decent debut season and may have untapped potential.

Sean Murphy - Braves: A former All-Star and Gold Glove catcher who is recovering from a hip injury. Owed $15M for each of 2026, 2027 and 2028. Could easily make another All-Star game as the Twins token representative.

Jurickson Profar - Braves: Owed $15M for each of 2026 and 2027. Would be one of the Twins better bats and can play 1B. Potential to flip him immediately.

Aaron Bummer - Braves: $9.5M remaining for 2026. Would be interesting to see if Pete Maki can unlock his 2024 performance.

[DJL44]

If anyone has any other bad contract to add, put them in the comments.

[Linus]

Thanks for putting this list together. It was interesting. I’m not sure Falvey has the balls or the payroll flexibility to do it. 

[Mike Sixel]

I think this only happens, as you say, if they deal their big three and gut the payroll.....but they've literally done the opposite twice under Falvey, so, ya, good luck.

[jorgenswest]

Did Kelbert Ruiz just become a bad contract in the eyes of the Nationals? Do they need him and Ford? I think his contract has 5 years and 35 million left (5,5,7,9,9).

His concussion issues make him a real risk. The Twins would need a pretty good player and the Nationals would need to take on some salary.

[old nurse]

The value of the prospects available would come nowhere near the cost of player coming with the contract. The notion that they would have value at the deadline contradicts. The player being traded at the deadlin

[Major League Ready]

I applaud the creativity.  The only thing is we would not want the deadweight blocking players that could be part of the solution.  If they were forced to spend to get above "grievance level", cut the player, eat the money and bank the prospect.   I don't see it being at all likely, but it couldn't hurt to look for such an opportunity.

[old nurse]

13 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I applaud the creativity.  The only thing is we would not want the deadweight blocking players that could be part of the solution.  If they were forced to spend to get above "grievance level", cut the player, eat the money and bank the prospect.   I don't see it being at all likely, but it couldn't hurt to look for such an opportunity.

The contract for a prospect has a flaw. The large contract means somebody has enough good prospects they can sell a few. What prospect do the Mets. Have that is worth 50 million?   A whole draft class and IFA class comes in at around 20 million or less. The math doesn’t look like it would work. 

[Riverbrian]

The Twins could consider this sort of thing. 

I wouldn't want to waste the roster space on the position players side. However... they could absorb it in the bullpen. 

And they certainly could absorb it financially. Hopefully... Nothing long term. 

There has to be teams up against the Payroll wall looking to cut 5 million here or 10 million there.

The Twins could buy a prospect in theory. 

[Major League Ready]

2 hours ago, old nurse said:

The contract for a prospect has a flaw. The large contract means somebody has enough good prospects they can sell a few. What prospect do the Mets. Have that is worth 50 million?   A whole draft class and IFA class comes in at around 20 million or less. The math doesn’t look like it would work. 

Totally agree which is why I said it's unlikely.  It would not work for a player with multiple years remaining or a player with no value.  Therefore, it would take a more complex transaction.  For example, a player with 1 year $30M remaining where the Twins could flip the player and eat $20M-30M.   There is probably some sort of scenario where this could work but a lot of things would need to line up. 

[bunsen82]

On 12/6/2025 at 7:17 PM, jorgenswest said:

Did Kelbert Ruiz just become a bad contract in the eyes of the Nationals? Do they need him and Ford? I think his contract has 5 years and 35 million left (5,5,7,9,9).

His concussion issues make him a real risk. The Twins would need a pretty good player and the Nationals would need to take on some salary.

They have 4 MLB catchers now.  Ruiz is a bit of an overpay salary wise.  Played well in the first couple weeks then fell of a cliff.  he would definitely be a buy low candidate.  Back up catchers are expensive though.  I think Ruiz is decent value in the backup position.  

[DJL44]

On 12/6/2025 at 7:17 PM, jorgenswest said:

Did Kelbert Ruiz just become a bad contract in the eyes of the Nationals? Do they need him and Ford? I think his contract has 5 years and 35 million left (5,5,7,9,9).

His concussion issues make him a real risk. The Twins would need a pretty good player and the Nationals would need to take on some salary.

Good example of an underwater contract, but the Nationals are in the same situation as the Twins. They don't need to move salary to get under a payroll limit.

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Good example of an underwater contract, but the Nationals are in the same situation as the Twins. They don't need to move salary to get under a payroll limit.

Very True. This probably belongs somewhere else. They may want to move salary to get under their team set limit.

[weitz41]

Jake Cronenworth may be a decent fit for an underwater contract. The 5 years left on his contract may be a bit too long though. 2.4 war, 108 ops+ and pretty even splits. Padres are looking to cut payroll.