Athletics 4, Twins 2 (10 inn.): Twins Can't Convert Chances, Shea Langeliers is Mean

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Edmond Dantes said:

I thought the same thing. Didn't the announcers even say that bunting was the initial portion of Lewis's batting practice yesterday? The team is just so bad at fundamental baseball. How many times are they going to have a player thrown out at home before they abandon the run on contact rule. 

As long as Rocco is around.

[DJL44]

4 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

People here trying to recreate Tom Kelly's hitting philosophy that drove Big Papi to become a hall of famer with the Red Sox. 

Trying to pull every slider away isn't helping Royce Lewis.

[Parfigliano]

3 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Trying to pull every slider away isn't helping Royce Lewis.

It may not be helping but it is Lewis and it will not change.  Every team in MLB knows this.

[Danchat]

50 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

It's mid-August and Wallner has driven in 11 baserunners.

Ee-lev-nn.

Thats why some of us believe OPS isnt a good measure of actual offense impact.

High K, low BA hitters who depend on one swing every 25 PAs tend to be very overrated by OPS.

I know considering RBI as a meaningful stat brands me as a Neanderthal. Don't care, so don't bother. 

RBI are the single most important thing a hitter can do in a baseball game. 

In 58 PAs when Wallner is at the plate with runners in scoring position he has a whopping .140 batting average with 0 HRs, and a paltry 5 RBIs. Strangely though, he has 13 BBs to 14 Ks so it's not as if he's striking out 30%+ of the time. But it's a reminder that hitting a single is far more valuable than taking a walk in these situations.

Also, only 3 sacrifice flies in a career 871 PAs for Wallner. Still not close to the legendary Joey Gallo's 4 SFs in 3400 PAs.

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, Danchat said:

In 58 PAs when Wallner is at the plate with runners in scoring position he has a whopping .140 batting average with 0 HRs, and a paltry 5 RBIs. Strangely though, he has 13 BBs to 14 Ks so it's not as if he's striking out 30%+ of the time. But it's a reminder that hitting a single is far more valuable than taking a walk in these situations.

Also, only 3 sacrifice flies in a career 871 PAs for Wallner. Still not close to the legendary Joey Gallo's 4 SFs in 3400 PAs.

He's had 871 PAs and only had a chance to drive in runners in 58 of them in his entire career? That's crazy low for opportunities.

[Hubie29]

3 hours ago, shimrod said:

The Outman play at the plate was prime Rocco. Why is the contact play on with no outs and first base open? Aside, of course, from the fact we always run it with a man on third. Which negates much of the value as your opponents don't even have to think about it, they know to go home with the throw.

Squandering that potential big inning is completely on the manager for taking discretion away from the player and forcing him into an out. Just brutal. 

 

Have you been watching the little league world series? I will take most of them coaches over RB as manager. I'm not sure RB could coach little league. Maybe he can teach them how to a spit.

[NYCTK]

17 minutes ago, Danchat said:

In 58 PAs when Wallner is at the plate with runners in scoring position he has a whopping .140 batting average with 0 HRs, and a paltry 5 RBIs. Strangely though, he has 13 BBs to 14 Ks so it's not as if he's striking out 30%+ of the time. But it's a reminder that hitting a single is far more valuable than taking a walk in these situations.

Also, only 3 sacrifice flies in a career 871 PAs for Wallner. Still not close to the legendary Joey Gallo's 4 SFs in 3400 PAs.

Something is clearly wrong with his approach. In high leverage situations he's hitting into a IF popup a full quarter of the time. That's 2x as high as it should be given his profile. He's making an effort to lift the ball, and doing a terrible job. 

[USAFChief]

20 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

He's had 871 PAs and only had a chance to drive in runners in 58 of them in his entire career? That's crazy low for opportunities.

The 58 PAs is 2025. The 871 is career.  Pretty sure you could have figured that out....or did, but thought it would tank your argument. 

BTW, since you like OPS, care to take a guess what Wallner's OPS is this year in those 58 PAs with runners in scoring position?

Spoiler alert: its .490

For the record, he has another 46 PAs with a runner on first in addition to the 58 with RISP. He's had opportunities. 

It might also interest you to know Wallner has more RBI this season with the bases empty than with any combination of runners on.

For his career in those 871 PAs, Wallner has driven in 70 baserunners. 

I want to see Wallner play every day. But let's not pretend he's been very impactful. He's been a part of the problem this team has in scoring runs.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I guess if you want to develop one-dimensional hitters, then that's fine. You'll get a Royce Lewis who can only hit opposite field, a Matt Wallner who grounds out to 2B all the time, a Brooks Lee who hits like Julien and a Julien who hits like Brooks Lee. Never mind that you can't punish people into performing better athletically.

Lots of coaches will take a player who is struggling at the plate and have them put down a bunt. It's not a crazy idea to have players look at the situation and try to make the most of the at-bat in that situation. I want Royce Lewis to be able to pull the ball when they give him a fastball in, go opposite field on a slider away AND put down a bunt when the situation calls for it.

Yes, that was obviously some extreme exaggeration, but Royce Lewis laying down bunts in games is not what's going to solve this team's problems or fix Royce Lewis. And you absolutely can use negative reinforcement to improve athletic performance. There are fines handed down between players in MLB clubhouses right now. 

[The Great Hambino]

4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

He's had 871 PAs and only had a chance to drive in runners in 58 of them in his entire career? That's crazy low for opportunities.

I'm pretty sure some season and career figures are getting commingled here 58 PAs with RISP is this year.

I've long been searching for a good way to find an easy source for how a player has done driving in runs relative to their opportunities.  The best I've found so far in the game log section of BBRef.  For any given year, there's an "RBI opportunities" section that shows how many RBI a player has relative to the MLB average given the number of PAs, as well as the number of PAs with a runner on each base, also relative to the MLB average.

For our friend Matt Wallner, this year his 27 RBI in 291 PAs is below the league average expectation of 33.  However, he's also had definitvely fewer opportunities than the average MLB hitter based on who's been on base for his PAs. 

PAs with a runner on: First - Second - Third 

Wallner:  77-48-17 (142 total, 65 RISP)

Avg MLB: 87-58-28 (174 total, 86 RISP)

In other words, Wallner has had significantly fewer RBI opportunities, and fewer good opportunities, than the average MLB hitter.

So if you think Wallner's driving in fewer runs than his OPS would indicate, you're right!

If you think Wallner's raw RBI total has been suppressed by relative lack of opportunity, you're also right!

Ain't math fun?

I wish they took this a step further and presented the number of RBI Wallner would expect to have given the runners he's had on base.  Comparing that number to his actual RBI total would really tell us how effective he's been driving in runs.   Effectiveness is better measured by a rate or a comparison of actual vs expected than a raw total.  It's why we don't give the batting title to the player with the most hits.

[AceWrigley]

The Twins only have 3 players with at least 1 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) according to BBref, Buxton (3.9), Jeffers (1.2) and Keaschall (1.0). Everyone else is hovering in the replacement zone. The White Sox, for comparison, have 8 players with at least 1 WAR. Plan on seeing a very different lineup next season.

[DJL44]

22 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

The 58 PAs is 2025. The 871 is career.  Pretty sure you could have figured that out....or did, but thought it would tank your argument. 

BTW, since you like OPS, care to take a guess what Wallner's OPS is this year in those 58 PAs with runners in scoring position?

Spoiler alert: its .490

For the record, he has another 46 PAs with a runner on first in addition to the 58 with RISP. He's had opportunities. 

It might also interest you to know Wallner has more RBI this season with the bases empty than with any combination of runners on.

For his career in those 871 PAs, Wallner has driven in 70 baserunners. 

I want to see Wallner play every day. But let's not pretend he's been very impactful. He's been a part of the problem this team has in scoring runs.

No, I just assumed the original poster was using career numbers for everything. I suppose could have figured it out but I have a limited amount of time to fact check posts.

I will still stand by my statement that he’s not one of the top 20 problems to solve.

[Danchat]

33 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

I wish they took this a step further and presented the number of RBI Wallner would expect to have given the runners he's had on base.  Comparing that number to his actual RBI total would really tell us how effective he's been driving in runs.   Effectiveness is better measured by a rate or a comparison of actual vs expected than a raw total.  It's why we don't give the batting title to the player with the most hits.

I agree, that's what I'd like to see. Because I have to imagine 5 RBIs in 58 PAs is a poor rate compared to the rest of the league, but who knows how much the rest of the league is at.

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, Glorybound said:

   The front office likely has their reasons. Working on some things they want cleaned up. He might as well be as ready as they possibly can make him when they bring him up as this season is lost. My guess is they want him in the rotation when the 26 season starts. Rushing the process sometimes regresses the development of the individual.

Abel has over 300 IP between AA and AAA the last few seasons. The guy already started 6 games for the Phillies this season before the trade. They thought he was ready enough to pitch at the MLB level while they were actually trying to win games. He can "work on some things," with actual Major League pitching coaches. He's going to begin 2026 in the rotation but getting him starts in August is rushing the process? 

[KirbyDome89]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

No, I just assumed the original poster was using career numbers for everything. I suppose could have figured it out but I have a limited amount of time to fact check posts.

I will still stand by my statement that he’s not one of the top 20 problems to solve.

What are the top 20? I'd certainly argue that the lack of position player development has been a major problem for this team. 

[AceWrigley]

37 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

What are the top 20? I'd certainly argue that the lack of position player development has been a major problem for this team. 

Might as well include drafting also. I find it interesting that 2 of the best performers in our system (McCusker and Eeles) were non-draft signees. Heck, even the undrafted Dobnak made it to The Show.

[DJL44]

41 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

What are the top 20? I'd certainly argue that the lack of position player development has been a major problem for this team. 

Ownership, GM, Manager, 1B, 3B, C2, SS, LF, SP4, SP5, SP6, SP7, RP1, RP2, RP3, RP4, RP5, RP6, OF4, UT

[shimrod]

6 hours ago, AceWrigley said:

Plan on seeing a very different lineup next season.

Next years lineup will cost less. They may or may not be more productive. 

[RpR]

9 hours ago, AceWrigley said:

The Twins only have 3 players with at least 1 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) according to BBref, Buxton (3.9), Jeffers (1.2) and Keaschall (1.0). Everyone else is hovering in the replacement zone. The White Sox, for comparison, have 8 players with at least 1 WAR. Plan on seeing a very different lineup next season.

I would not split a bet on that to any level.