Ranking Twins Hitters By Clutchness: A 2025 Outlook

[Cody Christie]

For generations, fans have debated which players are the most clutch on their favorite team. Here are the Twins’ top five players based on clutchness, and what that means for the 2025 campaign.

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

When it comes to clutch production, numbers can tell part of the story. Let’s examine how Twins hitters fared in high-pressure moments last season and what that might mean for the team’s plans in 2025. Before we break down the rankings, let’s take a quick look at the key FanGraphs metrics that form the basis of these evaluations.

Understanding the Numbers

• Clutch: This stat measures a player’s performance in high-leverage situations, relative to their typical performance. A positive number indicates that the player “comes through” when the pressure’s on, while a negative value suggests they might choke when the stakes are high. However, remember that clutch numbers fluctuate wildly from season to season, so one year of over- or under-performance isn’t necessarily predictive of future results.
• Win Probability Added (WPA): WPA quantifies how much a player’s actions contribute to shifting their team’s chances of winning. Every play is evaluated by how much it increases (or, in some cases, decreases) the likelihood of a win. It’s a broad measure of overall impact, but multiple critical moments can impact the game’s final result. 
• WPA Divided by Leverage Index (WPA/LI): By dividing WPA by the Leverage Index (a factor that gauges the pressure of the situation), this metric offers insight into how effective a player is specifically in high-leverage moments. It’s a refined look at performance under pressure—though, as with all clutch statistics, it should be viewed with caution as an isolated predictor.

In short, while these numbers give us a snapshot of who might be the “clutch” performer, they’re just one part of a larger picture. Baseball’s inherent variability means that being clutch one season rarely guarantees the same results year after year. Below is a breakdown of the top five Twins hitters by clutchness, and how each fits into the 2025 blueprint.

5. Trevor Larnach, OF
2024 Clutch Stats: 0.19 Clutch, 0.50 WPA, 0.32 WPA/LI  
Larnach’s numbers suggest he’s contributed decently in pressure situations, although not dramatically. His slightly positive Clutch figure and modest WPA and WPA/LI values indicate that while he’s a useful bat in the lineup, he hasn’t yet become the team’s go-to guy in crunch time. For 2025, expect Larnach to continue growing into his full-time role, especially as the strong side of the platoon.

4. Matt Wallner, OF
2024 Clutch Stats: -1.39 Clutch, 0.50 WPA, 1.95 WPA/LI  
Wallner’s numbers present an interesting case. His negative Clutch stat might worry some, suggesting he has trouble equaling his normal production in high-pressure situations. However, his WPA/LI of 1.95 tells a different story. He can deliver a significant impact when he finds himself in crucial moments. As the Twins shape their plans for 2025, Wallner is expected to be one of the team’s top offensive performers, and they hope his high-leverage production will improve with more regular big-league playing time.

3. Willi Castro, UTL
2024 Clutch Stats: 0.10 Clutch, 0.78 WPA, 0.68 WPA/LI  
Castro’s numbers reflect a relatively balanced performance under pressure. His Clutch metric is nearly neutral, but his WPA figures indicate he’s been effective overall, especially in those critical moments where the win is on the line. For 2025, his versatility as a utility player means he can be plugged into various roles, giving the manager flexibility and a steady option when the game hangs in the balance. His most significant value in clutch situations might be his ability to play so many defensive positions, because that means other bench bats can be added to the lineup for the late innings. 

2. Carlos Correa, SS
2024 Clutch Stats: -0.72 Clutch, 2.16 WPA, 2.74 WPA/LI  
Correa has been known as a clutch player dating back to his playoff runs with the Astros. While Correa’s Clutch metric is in the red, his overall WPA and WPA/LI are off the charts compared to his peers. This suggests that his overall contributions have been crucial to the team's success, even if he’s had an off night or two in high-pressure moments. In 2025, Correa’s role will be delivering consistent production that elevates the team’s chances. If fans were polled, Correa would be the likely pick as the team’s top clutch hitter.

1. Byron Buxton, OF
2024 Clutch Stats: 0.70 Clutch, 1.76 WPA, 1.09 WPA/LI  
Buxton might be a surprise pick for the top of the list, but he led Twins hitters in Clutch last season. Alongside robust WPA and WPA/LI figures, Buxton is a player who contributes in spurts and consistently delivers in key moments. Last season, he accumulated the totals above because he played in over 100 games for only the second time in his career. There’s no question that his performance is tied to the team’s overall outcome in 2025. His blend of speed, defense, and timely hitting makes him indispensable, especially when the game’s outcome hangs on a single play.

There's another metrics-driven approach, offered by Baseball Savant. The site offers Run Value leaderboards that break down each hitter's contributions based on the location of pitches they see, and there's a further option to compare that production in a context-neutral environment to the values actually produced based on the situations in which those hitters came to bat. It's a way of folding situational plate discipline into the question of how hitters perform under pressure. Castro, Buxton and (yes) Manuel Margot do well by this reckoning.

It’s crucial to take these numbers with a grain of salt. Clutch performance in one season is notoriously volatile, and many factors, from lineup context to random chance, can sway these metrics. Yet, they provide an engaging way to look at how the team's players perform under pressure. In 2025, the Twins will lean on this mix of youthful energy and seasoned veterans, with each player carving out their role, whether lighting it up in crunch time or grinding out the wins. For now, Twins fans can hope for plenty of clutch moments that only the best teams can produce.

Do you agree with the clutch rankings from last season? Should another hitter make the list? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

 

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[MinnInPa]

sorry ..there is absolutely no one on this team that could every remotely be considered as clutch.. if i actually had to pick one guy ..if we need a big hit ..it would be Miranda

[CRF]

Lemme know when ya find one. 

[I Never Bet On Sports]

Interesting article, a lot to digest. A few questions:

I can't tell what ultimately led to the ranking of the top 5 for clutch hitting. How did you combine the three metrics listed to form an overall ranking system? I can't figure out why anyone is ranked higher or lower than the others from the data presented. What am I missing?

Non Competitive Pitch Data Help Requested

In watching the Twins this first series I felt that the Twins swing on non-competitive pitches far more than our opponents but can't find any definitive measure of this. Fangraphs has an article  measure based on pitches 2.5 feet from the center of the strike zone.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/revisiting-the-non-competitive-pitch/

This allows you to compare pitchers % of really bad pitches, but it does not lend itself to a measure of how much a batter chases pitches that are well outside the zone. Yes, chase rate helps, but doesn't offer the ability to look at really bad chases vs marginal chases.

I am thinking that pitches 6-8 inches or more from the edge of the strike zone resulted in Twins swinging and missing quite often (both of Buxton's 3-2 strikeouts Sunday were non-competitive pitches). In contrast, it seemed that Cardinal batters rarely swung at pitches that far out of the zone (and there seemed to be a lot of them from Lopez and Ober), I remember feeling this way many times last season, but can't find any metrics or data that would confirm or refute my theory.

Looking for help here. Does anyone know of a measure that would help me analyze this for validity? Does anyone else feel there is a significant difference between chases on non-competitive pitches for the Twins vs. their opponents? Any advice on where to look would be welcomed.

[David Maro]

The team looked flat and over matched all weekend. Castro was the only one who showed up to play. To be a clutch hitter you need to have other people's  help by getting on base. The pitching didn't help either by walking and hitting hitters. Guess we'll see if things change in Chicago.

[strumdatjag]

Is “Clutchness” a word?

[Doctor Gast]

Being clutch is very important, I don't care how many HRs players hit when they don't count. Give me a hit & not striking out when the game is on the line. Reggie Jackson wasn't that impressive during the season, but watch out when he got to the postseason but you have to 1st get to the postseason. CLE usually doesn't look good on paper (HRs), but they usually come up with clutch hits. Give me good pitching, good fundamentals, good defense & clutching hitting over HRs any day. Unfortunately, the one who gets the HRs gets all the attention & money. 

[Craig Arko]

Hahahahahaha!

[Blyleven2011]

There is another way to gauge if a player is a clutch hitter and that is the eye test , are we that blind by metrics that we can't see ...

We have no batter right now that we can really count on in a pressure situation  , and I mean pressure situations  ...

We also have no spark in this line up , can metrics fix that ??? ...

[Schmoeman5]

15 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

There is another way to gauge if a player is a clutch hitter and that is the eye test , are we that blind by metrics that we can't see ...

We have no batter right now that we can really count on in a pressure situation  , and I mean pressure situations  ...

We also have no spark in this line up , can metrics fix that ??? ...

That spark metrics is crucial for measuring 120/240 single phase. Not as reliable on 240/480 3 phase delta