The Minnesota Twins Are Active In the Trade Market

[sweetmusicviola16]

If we're talking snagging Cease I'm guessing it starts with someone like Raya or Morris. One of the two. I would say we would have to add someone to it though. Maybe someone like Doncon or Beltre. Padres would have to offer us some salary relief. Starts with Paddack I would think. Padres would need to throw in a flyer too.

Edit: To me Cease is really a close comp to Burnes a year ago. Milwaukee got Joey Ortiz as the headliner. Raya or Morris would be the equivalent. DL Hall imo not very good and injured prone. So maybe the second piece could be less regarded than Doncon or Beltre. I listed them only because they have a long ways to go before an ML chance. But to get Cease one piece would have to be really good. I'd be all for it. Then get creative and add other pieces we need to get better.

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The "self-imposed" was a creation of writers disgusted by the payroll being clipped last offseason. We all were disappointed. While I'm not expecting any major additions, there would be room for adding Cease if Falvey worked out a favorable deal.

I don't believe Paddack will still be a Twin in May. While my take is that Paddack could be good in the bullpen and useful as a spot starter 4-6 times in 2025 his salary doesn't fit that role in Minnesota. The return might not be much but if it clears some dough for Cease it makes sense. 

On a different note, Willi Castro likely has wide appeal for a number of teams. Yes, Castro also has value to the Twins but if the Twins have any faith at all in Keaschall, Rodriguez, and Lee providing value this season, Castro becomes very useful as a player to trade and has the ancillary benefit of reducing payroll. 

Both Vazquez and Castro are gone by 2026 and Cease will be a free agent as well. Can a deal get finished?

The Twins could take on all of Cease's money and half of Vazquez's contract if Paddack and Castro are up for discussion. The difficulty is getting Preller to agree on a return of young players. Perhaps a deal involves two of C. J. Culpepper, Marco Raya, Cory Lewis, and Kaelen Culpepper plus SWR. I don't know what Preller is looking for but I'm not listening on Festa, Matthews, Keaschall, Jenkins, or EmRod. The Twins don't need Cease.  Heck, Preller may like one of Larnach, Miranda, or Julien for that matter.

I think the "self-imposed" was more than a creation of the writers. Multiple beat writers all mentioned the same thing from sources. The FO and owners said they weren't going to reduce payroll but were all pretty clear they weren't really adding either. The 130 number looks like it was a little off, but adding Cease would push the payroll over 140 and there's been nothing from anyone connected to the Twins, including FO and ownership quotes, to suggest they are willing to increase the payroll like that. Obviously moving some other contracts would clear money as well, but I don't see any reason to believe the Twins are open to adding another 8 million or more to the payroll. If they're willing to get up to 145ish then I'm even more annoyed by the absolute no show of an offseason so far.

If they're moving Castro for a non-MLB player beyond Cease I have no interest in that. You know I'm all for starting Emma on the opening day roster and I think Keaschall is going to be better than Lee, but trading for Cease is a "win in 2025" move. They're already a bat short (why I'd start with Emma on the roster) and trading Castro would make them 2 bats short of a starting lineup. Better have a plan to fill those spots before bringing in Cease for a big swing at 2025.

To me, it just feels like the cost for 1 year of Cease is going to be too high if you're also trying to move Vazquez in the deal. You have to make up for Vazquez's negative value due to his contract then you have to pay the cost to get Cease on top of that. It can be done, but if it also costs them Castro in that deal or a separate one that's simply a money dump deal for a prospect I think the 2025 Twins are no better but now they've shipped out multiple prospects and/or a young MLB pitcher. They may have a few rabbits to pull out of a few hats, but it's going to take multiple deals to make everything fit and that's a hard trick to pull off.

[tony&rodney]

The only reason San Diego will consider trading Dylan Cease is for salary relief, thus they will not pay any player returning to them more than $3-5 million. Additionally, Preller will want a starter who can fill a rotation spot now. This likely means SWR, Festa, or Matthews. San Diego will also want more too.

[sweetmusicviola16]

5 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

The only reason San Diego will consider trading Dylan Cease is for salary relief, thus they will not pay any player returning to them more than $3-5 million. Additionally, Preller will want a starter who can fill a rotation spot now. This likely means SWR, Festa, or Matthews. San Diego will also want more too.

And the Twins if rumors are correct need to shed as well. If a deal happens someone would need to give up their grand dream of being the poster child of budget cutting.

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

but it's going to take multiple deals to make everything fit and that's a hard trick to pull off.

This I agree with, but then again since the season ended I have advocated for 2-3 deals. I'm not as high on Cease as some but he would help. I like the Twins pitching right now. They need bats. There aren't really any bats available. Emmanuel is my main added bat right now. I wonder if the Twins will give him a shot?

My proposal which would be soundly rejected from many fronts (almost certainly AZ) is to trade Duran, Castro, Raya, and Kyle DeBarge for Jordan Lawler. Arizona isn't going to trade their top prospect but that is an enticing offer.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

This I agree with, but then again since the season ended I have advocated for 2-3 deals. I'm not as high on Cease as some but he would help. I like the Twins pitching right now. They need bats. There aren't really any bats available. Emmanuel is my main added bat right now. I wonder if the Twins will give him a shot?

My proposal which would be soundly rejected from many fronts (almost certainly AZ) is to trade Duran, Castro, Raya, and Kyle DeBarge for Jordan Lawler. Arizona isn't going to trade their top prospect but that is an enticing offer.

I was surprised to see Cease as the name the Twins are looking at. He'd help for sure. Has Cy Young upside. But, to me, they'd be building the Seattle Mariners of the Midwest with that kind of deal. They missed the playoffs because they couldn't score. The Twins biggest question mark, to me, is their offense (the defense is bad so not a question mark). We saw what happened at the end of last year when the team couldn't score. The pitchers had to be darn near perfect to win and they couldn't get it done because that isn't realistic. So Cease is a weird target to me even though adding a potential Cy Young winner is always good. If you're going to give up what it costs to get him I'd prefer they give it up to get a bat instead.

I'd love Lawler, but I don't think there's any reasonable offer that would get them to give him up. And I'm not a big fan of the Twins making unreasonable offers for guys.

[sweetmusicviola16]

13 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think the "self-imposed" was more than a creation of the writers. Multiple beat writers all mentioned the same thing from sources. The FO and owners said they weren't going to reduce payroll but were all pretty clear they weren't really adding either. The 130 number looks like it was a little off, but adding Cease would push the payroll over 140 and there's been nothing from anyone connected to the Twins, including FO and ownership quotes, to suggest they are willing to increase the payroll like that. Obviously moving some other contracts would clear money as well, but I don't see any reason to believe the Twins are open to adding another 8 million or more to the payroll. If they're willing to get up to 145ish then I'm even more annoyed by the absolute no show of an offseason so far.

If they're moving Castro for a non-MLB player beyond Cease I have no interest in that. You know I'm all for starting Emma on the opening day roster and I think Keaschall is going to be better than Lee, but trading for Cease is a "win in 2025" move. They're already a bat short (why I'd start with Emma on the roster) and trading Castro would make them 2 bats short of a starting lineup. Better have a plan to fill those spots before bringing in Cease for a big swing at 2025.

To me, it just feels like the cost for 1 year of Cease is going to be too high if you're also trying to move Vazquez in the deal. You have to make up for Vazquez's negative value due to his contract then you have to pay the cost to get Cease on top of that. It can be done, but if it also costs them Castro in that deal or a separate one that's simply a money dump deal for a prospect I think the 2025 Twins are no better but now they've shipped out multiple prospects and/or a young MLB pitcher. They may have a few rabbits to pull out of a few hats, but it's going to take multiple deals to make everything fit and that's a hard trick to pull off.

Castro and his 6.4 could be moved and be replaced by maybe a Kiki Hernandez or Jose Iglessias. Not flashy moves but might net us 2.5mil. Maybe. Vazquez gets moved. we pay out 4 mil of his salary. Sign Diaz for 4.5. Then Paddack is traded by paying 1.5 of his salary and pickup a prospect or something. This does net us 10 mil. I don't know if any of this happens but it would net us what we need to acquire Cease and not make the team much different. Only different pieces. idk

But yes  we would still have to give up a really good prospect. But if it puts us on top in 2025 it needs considering. That's the price of operating.

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

If you're going to give up what it costs to get him I'd prefer they give it up to get a bat instead.

While I totally agree with that sentiment, I keep wondering who is available. I was ok with an idea of trading Pablo Lopez for Jarren Duran but that wasn't going to happen unless Boston couldn't sign anyone at all.

Is what I offered for Lawler unreasonable? I would even throw in Julien.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Castro and his 6.4 could be moved and be replaced by maybe a Kiki Hernandez or Jose Iglessias. Not flashy moves but might net us 2.5mil. Maybe. Vazquez gets moved. we pay out 4 mil of his salary. Sign Diaz for 4.5. Then Paddack is traded by paying 1.5 of his salary and pickup a prospect or something. This does net us 10 mil. I don't know if any of this happens but it would net us what we need to acquire Cease and not make the team much different. Only different pieces. idk

But yes  we would still have to give up a really good prospect. But if it puts us on top in 2025 it needs considering. That's the price of operating.

Every trade needs considering. And it's always possible they can pull off the multi-deal magic it'd take to make an improvement on the 2025 team.

Kike isn't someone I'm interested in as a Castro replacement. Castro is no star with the bat, but he's at least average to slightly above. Kike is a below average bat and making this offense worse is not something I'd be a fan of.

Iglesias is an interesting case. He's help defensively, but last year was a massive outlier season for him. He didn't even play in the bigs the year before because he was just a league average bat in AAA and couldn't get a job. He's been a below average bat the rest of his career outside of 2020 and 2013. If I felt better about him being at least as good as Castro that'd be a decent enough deal, but he'll likely cost in the 5-6 mil range so you aren't really saving much, if any, money. Interesting possibility, though.

I like that they're looking for moves. I'm not saying they shouldn't or there's no way to make it all work. It's just a big task and 1 year of Cease is going to be expensive so you better have the rest of your team straightened out if you're going to give up what it costs to get him.

[sweetmusicviola16]

10 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

While I totally agree with that sentiment, I keep wondering who is available. I was ok with an idea of trading Pablo Lopez for Jarren Duran but that wasn't going to happen unless Boston couldn't sign anyone at all.

Is what I offered for Lawler unreasonable? I would even throw in Julien.

I would assume there has been talk for Johan Duran as well. Some teams really still wanting a big Pen addition. I like Duran but I'm not opposed for the right guy/s.

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

While I totally agree with that sentiment, I keep wondering who is available. I was ok with an idea of trading Pablo Lopez for Jarren Duran but that wasn't going to happen unless Boston couldn't sign anyone at all.

Is what I offered for Lawler unreasonable? I would even throw in Julien.

Yeah, I have no idea who's available beyond Nolan Arenado, but that's not a huge win as he's expensive and on the decline (even though I still love his glove and watching him play). 

Pulling top-10 global prospects who are MLB ready from teams trying to contend is a nearly impossible task. If Jenkins debuts at the end of this year and is set to be on the opening day roster for the Twins in 2026 what would it cost to get him? It'd be a pretty crazy price tag for the Twins to give up 6 years of an MLB ready Jenkins. I think the same is true for Lawler. I just don't think there's any way you're actually getting him unless you're throwing them an absolutely unreal package.

[DJL44]

Cease and Arraez for Vazquez, Castro, and Festa?

[tony&rodney]

10 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, I have no idea who's available beyond Nolan Arenado, but that's not a huge win as he's expensive and on the decline (even though I still love his glove and watching him play). 

Pulling top-10 global prospects who are MLB ready from teams trying to contend is a nearly impossible task. If Jenkins debuts at the end of this year and is set to be on the opening day roster for the Twins in 2026 what would it cost to get him? It'd be a pretty crazy price tag for the Twins to give up 6 years of an MLB ready Jenkins. I think the same is true for Lawler. I just don't think there's any way you're actually getting him unless you're throwing them an absolutely unreal package.

You are probably right. Teams are very reluctant to trade their top prospects, more than ever. The Twins traded Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps and the Cubs traded Gleybar Torres for Aroldis Chapman. It can never hurt to have the conversations. I'm sure teams have asked about Jenkins.

I was thinking Arizona is close and has a set team and would benefit short term from a closer. Lawler does have injury concerns but all players do to an extent. Still wondering who is available for any cost in a trade. I'm not trading any of Jenkins, Keaschall, EmRod, Festa, or Matthews for one year players. I would trade Jenkins for Yordan Alvarez. Not happening, I know, and YA has a big contract too. The Twins need bats.

[sweetmusicviola16]

19 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Cease and Arraez for Vazquez, Castro, and Festa?

I would. Festa for Cease. Yes a high price for 1 year Cease. Castro for Arraez. SD gets a solid player buts gets salary relief. If the Twins would take on the salary though.....

Cease and Arraez make the Twins clear Central favorites and with Cease give us a big advantage to start a PO series. Followed up by Pablo and Ober.

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

You are probably right. Teams are very reluctant to trade their top prospects, more than ever. The Twins traded Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps and the Cubs traded Gleybar Torres for Aroldis Chapman. It can never hurt to have the conversations. I'm sure teams have asked about Jenkins.

I was thinking Arizona is close and has a set team and would benefit short term from a closer. Lawler does have injury concerns but all players do to an extent. Still wondering who is available for any cost in a trade. I'm not trading any of Jenkins, Keaschall, EmRod, Festa, or Matthews for one year players. I would trade Jenkins for Yordan Alvarez. Not happening, I know, and YA has a big contract too. The Twins need bats.

Torres was in A ball at the time of the trade and was dealt at the deadline from a Cubs team trying to win their first title in 100 years. Ramos was a borderline top-100 prospect and that trade was pretty roundly despised the moment it was made. They weren't global top 10 prospects ready to step on a major league field.

I'm not saying the Twins shouldn't be making calls on anyone and everyone they can, just that getting Lawler for a reasonable price is going to be incredibly hard.

[amjgt]

21 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I was surprised to see Cease as the name the Twins are looking at. He'd help for sure. Has Cy Young upside. But, to me, they'd be building the Seattle Mariners of the Midwest with that kind of deal. They missed the playoffs because they couldn't score. The Twins biggest question mark, to me, is their offense (the defense is bad so not a question mark). We saw what happened at the end of last year when the team couldn't score. The pitchers had to be darn near perfect to win and they couldn't get it done because that isn't realistic. So Cease is a weird target to me even though adding a potential Cy Young winner is always good. If you're going to give up what it costs to get him I'd prefer they give it up to get a bat instead.

I'd love Lawler, but I don't think there's any reasonable offer that would get them to give him up. And I'm not a big fan of the Twins making unreasonable offers for guys.

Worth a reminder that the Twins scored the 10th most runs in MLB last year. 

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, amjgt said:

Worth a reminder that the Twins scored the 10th most runs in MLB last year. 

And during their collapse in September they scored the 20th most runs in MLB. They collapsed because their offense fell apart. Not their pitching. 

And while I don't expect Santana to continue to hit at the level he did last year, he was one of their better bats and he's gone. They have 8 regulars for their lineup right now. They have a full pen and rotation. I stick by offense being their bigger question mark.

[amjgt]

Everything fell apart in the last 50 games. 

Post All-Star break, the offense scored the 18th most runs and the pitching was ranked 21st in runs allowed

Pre All-star break those numbers were 6th and 15th respectively. 

It's hard for me to look at those numbers and say definitively "pitching is good. We need hitting." You're absolutely right that we've probably lost more on the hitting side (Santana and Castro) than on the pitching side, but I don't think either of those are that big of losses (other than their defense).

[chpettit19]

39 minutes ago, amjgt said:

Everything fell apart in the last 50 games. 

Post All-Star break, the offense scored the 18th most runs and the pitching was ranked 21st in runs allowed

Pre All-star break those numbers were 6th and 15th respectively. 

It's hard for me to look at those numbers and say definitively "pitching is good. We need hitting." You're absolutely right that we've probably lost more on the hitting side (Santana and Castro) than on the pitching side, but I don't think either of those are that big of losses (other than their defense).

I didn't say "pitching is good, we need hitting." I said offense is their bigger question mark. They can use more pitching. Everybody always can. But I have fewer questions about the rotation than I do about the lineup. Cease would help. I said that in the original post you responded to. But if I'm giving up the type of package it'd take to get him I'd rather give it up for a bat. I can fill out a rotation with 5 names I believe are good enough to be in an MLB rotation. I can't fill out a lineup with 9 names I believe are good enough to be in an MLB everyday lineup. So, to me, offense is the bigger question mark. Especially when you add in that the biggest names in the lineup can't be trusted to stay healthy.

The Twins have potential all over. But almost every offensive member comes with a question mark. The Twins getting rid of the Thielbar, Jackson, Okert, Richards type arms (whether by choice or budget limitations) gives me even more faith in their pitching. If you're picking between their rotation and their lineup, which do you trust more to perform this season? 

 

[amjgt]

10 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I didn't say "pitching is good, we need hitting." I said offense is their bigger question mark. They can use more pitching. Everybody always can. But I have fewer questions about the rotation than I do about the lineup. Cease would help. I said that in the original post you responded to. But if I'm giving up the type of package it'd take to get him I'd rather give it up for a bat. I can fill out a rotation with 5 names I believe are good enough to be in an MLB rotation. I can't fill out a lineup with 9 names I believe are good enough to be in an MLB everyday lineup. So, to me, offense is the bigger question mark. Especially when you add in that the biggest names in the lineup can't be trusted to stay healthy.

The Twins have potential all over. But almost every offensive member comes with a question mark. The Twins getting rid of the Thielbar, Jackson, Okert, Richards type arms (whether by choice or budget limitations) gives me even more faith in their pitching. If you're picking between their rotation and their lineup, which do you trust more to perform this season? 

 

I trust their pitching more at this very moment than their hitting. But I also think the crappiness of the last 50 games of last season has made people forget how good this offense looked in the first 4 months last year. 

I believe that spending prospect capital on a really good LF would probably have a larger regular season effect than spending that same prospect capital on a SP. But adding Cease would have an outsized positive effect on post season success (as well as helping you get there).

Upgrades at LF and 1B can be more easily added at the trade deadline than a front line SP. 

I also want to a) take advantage of an opportunity to add an Ace at a relatively cheap cost, and b) take advantage of what looks to me like a very down year for the AL.  

 

[chpettit19]

38 minutes ago, amjgt said:

I trust their pitching more at this very moment than their hitting. But I also think the crappiness of the last 50 games of last season has made people forget how good this offense looked in the first 4 months last year. 

I believe that spending prospect capital on a really good LF would probably have a larger regular season effect than spending that same prospect capital on a SP. But adding Cease would have an outsized positive effect on post season success (as well as helping you get there).

Upgrades at LF and 1B can be more easily added at the trade deadline than a front line SP. 

I also want to a) take advantage of an opportunity to add an Ace at a relatively cheap cost, and b) take advantage of what looks to me like a very down year for the AL.  

 

I don't disagree that Cease would help. I don't think I'd call it an outsized positive effect in the postseason, but I can understand the argument that he'd be more helpful there than a LF or 1B. But I think the difference would depend on who the bat is. 

Upgrades to LF and 1B in general are much easier to get anytime, but if you're talking about a position player that's equal to the type of pitcher Cease is it isn't much of a difference. If you're just trying to improve on Martin (for example) in LF then that's way simpler than getting front line SP. But if you're trying to get a front line bat it's still crazy expensive and hard to come by at the deadline.

I can't say I think it's outrageous to try to take advantage of a questionable AL field this year, but I don't think Cease makes the Twins the favorites. It's reasonable to want him. I just don't trust the team enough to give up what it's likely to cost to get him. Especially if Vazquez is included in things as that just raises the financial or prospect cost of the deal because he's a negative asset. 

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, amjgt said:

I believe that spending prospect capital on a really good LF

We all want a really good bat.

Now, can you come up with one trade suggestion that has a reasonable chance of being completed? No, the Twins are not going to trade for Vlad Guerrero. I have asked this question numerous times since the beginning of November and not one reasonable trade has been offered up by anyone. I'm still hopeful.

[amjgt]

This is precisely why I’d trade for Cease. It seems pretty clear that he available. 

[tony&rodney]

5 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

8 hours ago, amjgt said:

I believe that spending prospect capital on a really good LF

We all want a really good bat.

Now, can you come up with one trade suggestion that has a reasonable chance of being completed? No, the Twins are not going to trade for Vlad Guerrero. I have asked this question numerous times since the beginning of November and not one reasonable trade has been offered up by anyone. I'm still hopeful.

 

30 minutes ago, amjgt said:

This is precisely why I’d trade for Cease. It seems pretty clear that he available. 

Those don't go together. Trade for a bat? Who?

Cease? Who goes?

[amjgt]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

 

Those don't go together. Trade for a bat? Who?

Cease? Who goes?

You quoted a very small part of my original post.

I put out a trade in the Cease specific thread

My thought are much more complete there

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, amjgt said:

You quoted a very small part of my original post.

I put out a trade in the Cease specific thread

My thought are much more complete there

My apologies.

i only saw what you had written here in this thread and believed you were responding to my request for a bat that was available in a reasonable trade. I didn't understand it. I hit the quote for the entire part you wrote. However, I have gone back and I found your trade suggestion for Cease on that other thread/discussion. It took me a little time but you have made a reasonable suggestion. In such a case as your trade or a few others that do not send away needed bats,  I'm all in support of dealing for Cease. 

[Aerodeliria]

I guess the Mets are talking with George Costanza....

[Sam Morley]

I’ve been thinking abou Spencer torkelson as a trade target. Detroit is moving Keith to first and are trying to move Tork. Rumors about the Mets being interested. Wonder who Detroit would want in return. 

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, Sam Morley said:

I’ve been thinking abou Spencer torkelson as a trade target. Detroit is moving Keith to first and are trying to move Tork. Rumors about the Mets being interested. Wonder who Detroit would want in return. 

Tork doesn't have much value at this time. The Tigers and Twins could exchange Julien and Tork but being in the same division means it is unlikely. The Twins will also want to see if Julien has made any adjustments to bring back his value.

[Sam Morley]

On 1/27/2025 at 2:22 PM, tony&rodney said:

Tork doesn't have much value at this time. The Tigers and Twins could exchange Julien and Tork but being in the same division means it is unlikely. The Twins will also want to see if Julien has made any adjustments to bring back his value.

I think if the twins could get torkelson for one of Julien, Miranda, or walner it would be a steal. We’ve seen real power from torkelson at the big league level, and though he hasn’t hit for avg yet, his hit tool grade is pretty good. Get him out of that park and a fresh start. There are types of trades I understand not wanting to do within the division, but I don’t see what the objection to this one would be.