Ronny Henriquez is Nearing a Make-or-Break Spring With Minnesota Twins

[DJL44]

22 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I agree, he isn’t a rotation option any longer. I just know he looked really good as a bullpen option at the end of 2023. I think it’s worth seeing his stuff play up in shorter stints again. That’s something he wasn’t afforded the chance in 2024

Those awful numbers are his 2024 performance AS A RELIEVER. Varland was moved to the bullpen halfway through the season. In 40 innings of relief work he was terrible. He absolutely got the chance to make his stuff play up in shorter stints - his K rate went up - but he was VERY hittable, and the overall results were just plain bad.

[Cory Engelhardt]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Those awful numbers are his 2024 performance AS A RELIEVER. Varland was moved to the bullpen halfway through the season. In 40 innings of relief work he was terrible. He absolutely got the chance to make his stuff play up in shorter stints - his K rate went up - but he was VERY hittable, and the overall results were just plain bad.

He did have a couple blowup outings at the end of September that were awful. No argument there. That’s why I am saying spring training will be interesting 

[LambchoP]

I think it will be hard to keep both Henriquez and Castellano on the MLB roster all year long. Henriquez has no options and Castellano goes back to PHI if not. That said, it would be nice having some depth at AAA like Varland, Topa and Funderburk. I still think Canterino or Prelipp should get at least some spring training innings to see if they're healthy and effective. A MLB quality lefty should be attainable even with this ownership and should really be a priority. I bet we could get a decent relief pitcher for Paddack.

[bean5302]

Henriquez's career is already broken. He's only on the roster because he's cheap and team controlled. He's probably adequate as a low leverage middle innings reliever thanks to generating so many ground balls, but beyond that, he's not interesting. Henriquez would likely pass through waivers, IMHO, and even if he didn't, I wouldn't be concerned about losing him.

When it comes to Varland, he gives up tons of hard contact because his pitches don't move well. The added velocity out of the bullpen only helps a little because batters have less decision time.
 

[tony&rodney]

I'm curious to hear what RH OF/1B bat worth anything is available and for what cost? Also what relievers are available and at what cost? I'm asking via trades not a FA milb contract with a ST invite.

[DJL44]

8 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Henriquez's career is already broken. He's only on the roster because he's cheap and team controlled. He's probably adequate as a low leverage middle innings reliever thanks to generating so many ground balls, but beyond that, he's not interesting. Henriquez would likely pass through waivers, IMHO, and even if he didn't, I wouldn't be concerned about losing him.
 

That seems pretty cynical about a pitcher who is about to turn 25. He still has time to improve.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins will need to consider options when they choose their Opening Day roster, largely because the team will need some of those players who begin the year in AAA once injuries occur or pitchers prove very ineffective. I wish they could take the best players north but it doesn't work that way.

Players develop at widely different rates and pitching is particular  tricky because of the subtleties within the mechanics of pitching. Justin Topa (he will be 34) had a pretty good year for Seattle as a 32 year old rookie. Topa has been in professional baseball since 2012. Louie Varland entered last season with a shot to hold down a starting rotation spot. Despite the ups and downs a number of these pitchers that we discuss still have a decent shot at decent careers. Maybe looking back at Caleb Thielbar is worth remembering. Michael Tonkin was in MLB as a 23 year old with the Twins. He is still viable. Cole Sands was close to being forgotten until last year. Griffin Jax was a failed starter. Varland can tweak his pitches and Henriquez is still a fair pitcher. Let's hope that the competition is strong in March and that Falvey makes the best decisions about who stays and who gets cut. 

[DocBauer]

1] IMO, you build the best 8 man pen you can. Hopefully you have a bit of a mixed bag of arms that vary arm angles and pitches so the opposition gets different looks. IDEALLY, you have at least ONE good LH you can bank on. A second LH who's solid for middle innings is a luxury. But you have a mix or arms sitting at AAA that are a mix of young arms and maybe a veteran of two you can add to the 40 man, or who has an option, to replace anyone hurt, or if you just have to play the shuttle game here and there.

2] I think our FO is somewhat paranoid about depth. There's a good chance Henriquez makes the opening day roster with a good ST. He's got enough potential that it makes some sense, even though someone like Varland might have more upside and better pure stuff. Tonkin probably makes it over Topa initially because Topa has options. I GET wanting to build depth and hold on to it as long as you can. The depth issue decrease somewhat as the season moves along, gets shorter, guys prove themselves, prospects look good at AAA, etc. It's not exactly how I'd do it, but there's a method to the madness that I understand and appreciate. 

What i don't like is a team with playoff potential/consideration protecting a AA rule 5 pick all season long with the idea/excuse he can be used as an innings eater in blowouts, one way or another. The last couple of seasons, we've seen just how little value an 8th man is used in role brings. Working out a deal with the Phillies to keep him...if the FO really likes him...should be a priority. Suddenly there's room for someone like Henriquez if he has a good spring. And isn't Tonkin, and possibly Topa, a ready made 2+ IP option already on hand to be a bridge arm? Tonkin has been really solid the past 2 seasons since he came back to MLB. So many negative comments about him being dropped in 2024. That's because he was an inexpensive middle man and not a back end option. He was immediately picked up every single time. And again, if you just look at his numbers the oadt 2 seasons, he's a cheap, solid middle man. So why keep a seldom used AA rule 5 option as your 8th man and shorten the pen?

And Henriquez is still pretty young, has potential, and it wouldn't stink to have him in the pen, even without options, if he starts to flash. He began his pen transition in 2023, had some injury setbacks, but started to show something last season. He MIGHT slip through waivers, and he might not. Odds are his loss wouldn't be of great impact...but then again...the same things were said about Sands last year.

Varland, IMO, is probably the better arm with a better future. I know he had a bad 2024. But why are we so concerned about a bad season when he's previously shown real potential previously? What I've seen from him the past few seasons is a guy who USUALLY goes through a lineup 1 time before running in to trouble. On his good days, he's gone 2 times through. One time through the order, 2 IP, he can max out and be a solid front of the pen middle arm. If he's better than Henriquez, it wouldn't be "fair" to start the season in AAA. But these things have a way of working themselves out. It wasn't "fair" that Ober began 2023 in St Paul. But he wasn't there long, and then he was up to stay. IF Paddack ISN'T moved...I still think he might be...it wouldn't be "fair" for Festa or SWR to begin 2025 in AAA. But again, these things tend to work themselves out.

In short, I'd can see reasons for Henriquez to make the opening day roster rather than give up on him too soon, even though his potential loss might not come back to bite the Twins. Working out a deal with Philadelphia for Castellano makes things easier. 

[Danchat]

On 1/17/2025 at 1:11 PM, stringer bell said:

Is my memory correct? The Twins DFA'd Henriquez during the 2023 season, correct? BBRef says he signed as a free agent in November of 2023. I don't recall Henriquez being on the 40-man when he was recalled the first time in 2024.

Correct, he was added to the 40 man roster on April 22nd, 2024 after being DFA'd in 2023. 

[DJL44]

9 hours ago, DocBauer said:

even though someone like Varland might have more upside and better pure stuff

Varland, IMO, is probably the better arm with a better future.

Louie Varland - double the upside, double the stuff, double the ERA... wait a minute

[bean5302]

16 hours ago, DJL44 said:

That seems pretty cynical about a pitcher who is about to turn 25. He still has time to improve.

Henriquez was in professional level ball 8 years ago after being drafted out of high school in 2018. 25 is the cutoff for legitimate prospect, and FIPs which have improved from 5.27 in AAA in 2023 all the way to 4.53 as a reliever last year seem to inspire you more than me.

Could he get better? Yeah, and he probably will. The issue for me is that he needs to get a lot, lot, lot better.

[DJL44]

16 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Could he get better? Yeah, and he probably will. The issue for me is that he needs to get a lot, lot, lot better.

He doesn't need to get a lot, lot better to be a better option than Mike Tonkin.

[ashbury]

7 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

He doesn't need to get a lot, lot better to be a better option than Mike Tonkin.

When Michael F. Tonkin is today's standard for success*, we're in a heap o' trouble.  😀

 

* Or even, "good enough"

[bean5302]

18 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

He doesn't need to get a lot, lot better to be a better option than Mike Tonkin.

Yes, he really does.

Michael Tonkin
a24 AAA = 45.0 IP, 2.80 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 9.20 K/9, 2.40 BB/9, 44.7% GB
a25 AAA = 41.0 IP, 1.10 ERA, 1.99 FIP, 10.10 K/9, 1.10 BB/9, 53.1% GB

Tonkin was light years better than Henriquez was.
 

[tony&rodney]

On 1/18/2025 at 10:10 AM, bean5302 said:

Henriquez's career is already broken. He's only on the roster because he's cheap and team controlled. He's probably adequate as a low leverage middle innings reliever thanks to generating so many ground balls, but beyond that, he's not interesting. Henriquez would likely pass through waivers, IMHO, and even if he didn't, I wouldn't be concerned about losing him.

When it comes to Varland, he gives up tons of hard contact because his pitches don't move well. The added velocity out of the bullpen only helps a little because batters have less decision time.
 

Curious about how you felt about Griffin Jax as a 26-28 year old?

These decisions are tricky with relief pitchers and I'm not sure fans can have access to whether a guy is salvageable or not. The changes are quite subtle for many. Griffin Jax has adjusted. Tyler Jay is still trying to figure it out.

When I watch Louie Varland throw the ball, either in the bullpen or on the mound, I want to ask him a few questions and wonder if he could change this or that. Right now Varland throws to the barrel. Tomorrow Varland could be really good and he is isn't young any more either. I'm pretty sure a couple of teams have asked Falvey about Varland with a belief that minor imperceptible changes boost his effectiveness wildly. That's the fun ... we shall see.

[DJL44]

20 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Yes, he really does.

Michael Tonkin
a24 AAA = 45.0 IP, 2.80 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 9.20 K/9, 2.40 BB/9, 44.7% GB
a25 AAA = 41.0 IP, 1.10 ERA, 1.99 FIP, 10.10 K/9, 1.10 BB/9, 53.1% GB

Tonkin was light years better than Henriquez was.
 

I'm not talking about 25 year old Mike Tonkin. I'm talking about 35 year old Tonkin who is currently on the roster.

[bean5302]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

I'm not talking about 25 year old Mike Tonkin. I'm talking about 35 year old Tonkin who is currently on the roster.

You mean the one who has learned how to get outs at the MLB level at a far better rate than he was at age 25? Tonkin is looking like a solid MLB reliever. Henriquez wasn't even a solid AAA reliever.

[gman]

I think the Twins will need them all this year, including Henriquez, Tonkin, Topa etc. The only real question is who might get cut rather then go to the IL or 3A. There will be someone replaced before the end of April, I think that's a safe bet. So the first 8 to begin the year may not be the best 8 but if we can get the best 8 75-80% of the time we should be in pretty good shape. I'd like 90-95% but expect that to never happen.

[jorgenswest]

It is a make or break spring for Henriquez. 

On 1/19/2025 at 9:20 AM, bean5302 said:

Henriquez was in professional level ball 8 years ago after being drafted out of high school in 2018. 25 is the cutoff for legitimate prospect, and FIPs which have improved from 5.27 in AAA in 2023 all the way to 4.53 as a reliever last year seem to inspire you more than me.

Could he get better? Yeah, and he probably will. The issue for me is that he needs to get a lot, lot, lot better.

Is it best to use FIP for a reliever? Doesn’t it rely on home run rate which stabilizes at something over 1000 batters faced? A reliever isn’t going to come near that sample.

I do remember reading something about mistake rate and location rate and a claim that they stabilize pretty quickly. If mistakes are leading to more home runs there might be an answer in that data. I don’t know how to find that data but I imagine the Twins have it. I do recall that Ober was among the MLB pitchers with a low mistake rate in 2023.

I agree he needs to be better. I think he improved enough to remain on the 40 this winter. Now he needs to step it up to win and maintain a job with the Twins. 

[DJL44]

On 1/19/2025 at 12:25 PM, bean5302 said:

You mean the one who has learned how to get outs at the MLB level at a far better rate than he was at age 25? Tonkin is looking like a solid MLB reliever.

Yes, the Mike Tonkin who was placed on waivers multiple times last season.

[bean5302]

40 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

It is a make or break spring for Henriquez. 

Is it best to use FIP for a reliever? Doesn’t it rely on home run rate which stabilizes at something over 1000 batters faced? A reliever isn’t going to come near that sample.

I do remember reading something about mistake rate and location rate and a claim that they stabilize pretty quickly. If mistakes are leading to more home runs there might be an answer in that data. I don’t know how to find that data but I imagine the Twins have it. I do recall that Ober was among the MLB pitchers with a low mistake rate in 2023.

I agree he needs to be better. I think he improved enough to remain on the 40 this winter. Now he needs to step it up to win and maintain a job with the Twins. 

FIP is considered to be more stable than ERA in smaller sample sizes. I do like using xFIP, but the batted ball data from MiLB is less reliable than MLB. Henriquez's HR's allowed were spread pretty evenly through the season in terms of 1st half vs. 2nd half, though they tended to be bunched in bursts when he allowed them.

Breaking his AAA appearances down:
-0.43-2.99 FIP = 15 
3.00-3.99 FIP = 3
4.00-4.99 FIP = 4
5.00-42.57 FIP = 12

Basically, he's either good or gets destroyed by a home run. Henriquez is a ground ball reliever who doesn't entice hitters to chase outside the zone very well, but with good placement in the zone, he can generate a fair number of swings and misses on the changeup. None of his pitches move well, but he has good velocity. Lots of hard contact. When Henriquez makes a mistake, and all pitchers make mistakes, hitters have been able to easily capitalize. There just hasn't been a lot of wiggle room for Henriquez.

[ashbury]

ERA and its cousin FIP are both so wonky when it comes to partial innings that I would not place much stock in either for relievers.  Not when OPS-against simply looks at outcomes on a plate appearance basis.  OPS is subject to variability like any other rate stat, but I don't see how it has any disadvantages not shared by other stats, especially where platoon-splits are of interest.

[jorgenswest]

3 hours ago, ashbury said:

ERA and its cousin FIP are both so wonky when it comes to partial innings that I would not place much stock in either for relievers.  Not when OPS-against simply looks at outcomes on a plate appearance basis.  OPS is subject to variability like any other rate stat, but I don't see how it has any disadvantages not shared by other stats, especially where platoon-splits are of interest.

With relievers it is really difficult to use any of the plate appearance result based stats other than strikeout/walk rates and maybe ground ball rate.  The stabilization point of the components of OOPS at the major league level is over 600 batters faced. The most for Henriquez in a season line is 412 and that was when he was primarily a starter. If you want to look at platoon splits the sample becomes even smaller. There is just too much out of a pitcher’s control once a ball is put in play. We could look at multiyear data to get a larger sample but that doesn’t work so well for a minor leaguer who is playing at different levels and hopefully improving their skill level from year to year.

I would probably go with the younger Henriquez to start the season over Topa or Tonkin but I can’t back it up with any data.

[ashbury]

36 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

With relievers it is really difficult to use any of the plate appearance result based stats other than strikeout/walk rates and maybe ground ball rate.  The stabilization point of the components of OOPS at the major league level is over 600 batters faced.

So do you trust ERA or FIP instead?  Because that was my point.

[jorgenswest]

44 minutes ago, ashbury said:

So do you trust ERA or FIP instead?  Because that was my point.

Why trust any of the three? Choosing any as better than the other is folly all need more sample. In multiple years OOPS and FIP become relevant before ERA for major leaguer relievers. In a full career I would trust ERA.

In the context on Henriquez I trust strikeouts and walks as I stated. I would add that I trust velocity but it isn’t as easy to find.

[ashbury]

10 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Why trust any of the three? Choosing any as better than the other is folly

Teams have to base decisions on something.  You advocate ERA or FIP? Or just Ks and BBs?  There's more than that to go on.

[jorgenswest]

20 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Teams have to base decisions on something.  You advocate ERA or FIP? Or just Ks and BBs?  There's more than that to go on.

I assume they aren’t looking at baseball reference or Fangraphs to make decisions. They would have so much more as well as the skilled eyes of their trained staff.

I don’t have the data or the skilled eyes so I stand by…

2 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

I would probably go with the younger Henriquez to start the season over Topa or Tonkin but I can’t back it up with any data.

 

[ashbury]

5 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I assume they aren’t looking at baseball reference or Fangraphs to make decisions.

A fair way to end the tangent.  TBH I was thinking of finding an off-ramp too after regretting my last post, and you saved me the trouble.  😀