Three Risks of Moving Griffin Jax into a Starting Role

[DocBauer]

The beautiful game that is MLB sometimes appears stuck in it's ways far too often in certain aspects. But then again, it's also got a natural flow of change that happens over time. Power is up, speed went way down until at least a slight comeback recently, starters are seldom 200IP mainstays any longer, bullpen have become more important and roles are defined differently, etc. But over all the decades I've watched the game, I've seen very few relievers turned in to quality starters. A few teams have tried it recently with mixed results. So I have to wonder if this is a fad, or something that might continue to grow. But a few positive results have me skeptical for sure. I recall many years ago when a solid starter in Aguilera was turned in to a great reliever. The Twins attempted to move him back to the rotation with rather poor results, and I think he became injured at one point as well, but memory does fade. 

How great is Jax's desire to try to start again? I mean, I think every pitcher from little league to MLB dreams of being a successful SP. But it just isn't for everyone. But for Jax, is he adamant about the move? Or is this just a thought?

He wasn't capable as a starter. Period. He moved to the pen, reinvented himself, and became a dominate pen arm. I dare say one of the best in MLB. I know he's not the same pitcher he was in the past. But there is ZERO guarantee he'd be as good as he'd need to be in that role even as a different pitcher now.

The velocity will be down as he paces himself. How do other teams react to his stuff seeing it 2 or 3 times in a game? Can his body/arm adapt back to throwing 85-100 pitches in a game? And even if he could, would it last for more than half a season?

I think the 3 points Cody brought up in the OP are very real concerns. And I agree with them. It's really hard to take someone who is excellent in his role and then expect him to be anything close to as excellent in a very different role.

I'd like to think Jax would recognize all of that, and the possible pitfalls of mediocre/poor performance and even potential injury. 

I would vote no, and keep him in a role that he excells at, still makes decent $, and will continue to gain in earnings even though it wouldn't be of the kind of money that a top starter can potentially make. 

Simply from a team perspective, he's more valuable in his current role, IMO, coupled with 3 quality starters and a collection of young arms ready and nearly ready to take over the last 2 spots, and providing depth and future service waiting at AAA.

It's my hope all parties will indeed be open and honest and intelligent in all discussions. It's up to them, and not me. But I'd like to see him remain where he's at currently. 

 

[DJL44]

20 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

The beautiful game that is MLB sometimes appears stuck in it's ways far too often in certain aspects. But then again, it's also got a natural flow of change that happens over time. Power is up, speed went way down until at least a slight comeback recently, starters are seldom 200IP mainstays any longer, bullpen have become more important and roles are defined differently, etc. But over all the decades I've watched the game, I've seen very few relievers turned in to quality starters. A few teams have tried it recently with mixed results. So I have to wonder if this is a fad, or something that might continue to grow.

It may work more often now because MLB asks less of starters than at any time in the past. 85-100 pitches is perfectly acceptable now but it wouldn't have been in 1990.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

If Jax continues to pitch as he did last year you think he would not be elite?

Why do you think he can't be more than a back of the rotation starter? The whole idea of taking the risk is to get another top of the rotation arm like Lopez, Ober and Ryan. I agree, there isn't much to be gained if Jax is another Chris Paddack.

[DocBauer]

15 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

It may work more often now because MLB asks less of starters than at any time in the past. 85-100 pitches is perfectly acceptable now but it wouldn't have been in 1990.

I agree and almost said the same thing in my previous post. Again, the game has slowly evolved in different ways.

And I'm not saying Jax COULDN'T make the transition. I'm just looking at what it would TAKE to be successful again in that role. He's by no means an old man! But so many questions about his arm/body having to adapt. His stuff being seen 2 or 3 times, even though it's nasty. And I don't have to go on repeating everything already stated.

I agree the changes in the game make it more likely now than in the past to be successful. I simply maintain there are a number of variables that outweigh certainty in my mind.

[JD-TWINS]

15 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

If he insists we have to try him as a SP.  But with a BP as valuable as they have become this potentially weakens both the BP and rotation.  We know what he is in the BP, but we really don't know how he will be as a starter.  This decision is more about keeping him happy.  

Right now we have replacements in the rotation, but not the pen. 

If he insists, we have to let him be a SP - why? He works for the Team & will be paid around $2.5M for ‘25. This is hardly an indentured servant position………do companies pay/promote the 26 year olds that think they could or should be Vice President of the operation? No. Employees need to be treated fairly but not completely coddled. The Twins gave him an opportunity to be a starter & it didn’t work - they have worked together to develop him into an excellent reliever. Both sides have contributed and both sides have benefited.

I think they should elevate Jax to being the closer and trade Duran & others for a Bat. Team gets better - Jax makes more $$ going forward - everybody wins. He doesn’t need to be tried as a starter because that’s what he wants to do………Royce Lewis wants to play SS but that’s not happening!

Team doesn’t need a 3rd or 4th guy in the rotation that they have to be concerned about after he reaches 125 innings. Also, they need to maintain their edge in the bullpen as well & Jax is key to achieving that end.

[Mark G]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

If he insists, we have to let him be a SP - why? He works for the Team & will be paid around $2.5M for ‘25. This is hardly an indentured servant position………do companies pay/promote the 26 year olds that think they could or should be Vice President of the operation? No. Employees need to be treated fairly but not completely coddled. The Twins gave him an opportunity to be a starter & it didn’t work - they have worked together to develop him into an excellent reliever. Both sides have contributed and both sides have benefited.

I think they should elevate Jax to being the closer and trade Duran & others for a Bat. Team gets better - Jax makes more $$ going forward - everybody wins. He doesn’t need to be tried as a starter because that’s what he wants to do………Royce Lewis wants to play SS but that’s not happening!

Team doesn’t need a 3rd or 4th guy in the rotation that they have to be concerned about after he reaches 125 innings. Also, they need to maintain their edge in the bullpen as well & Jax is key to achieving that end.

Agreed from top to bottom.  But, then again, this is a team that let Max refuse to play CF simply because he didn't want to.  🙃

I tend to think that management will let Jax have the same veto power.  One can only hope he makes the right call when the time comes.  

[Fezig]

The way the Twins handle pitchers it's not like he's going to get many more innings. Five innings a week as a starter or four innings as a reliever. If the guy can start, let him start. 

[JD-TWINS]

49 minutes ago, Fezig said:

The way the Twins handle pitchers it's not like he's going to get many more innings. Five innings a week as a starter or four innings as a reliever. If the guy can start, let him start. 

71 innings v. 171 innings …… the reliever v. starter expectations. His pitch effectiveness will diminish, fact that everyone would acknowledge, including Jax. His max level effort out of the Pen, to me, gives a false impression of what he could be as a starter. Now, some due to psychology, it’s a big deal for him to pitch more than one inning - or 25 pitches per outing.

He averages 2.82 innings over the 25 week season (71 innings) v. 6.78 innings as a starter over 25 week season (171 innings).

Starting is a different world, from the ability to be effective - to maintaining health - to reinventing what’s going on between your ears.

[FargoFanMan]

17 hours ago, Coach said:

Two words (name actually); Louie Varland.  How'd that work out  The definition of management is to put personnel into positions of the company where they can mutually benefit most.

I don’t agree with the Varland comparison but I do agree with the fact that the front office, management and THE PLAYER needs to do what’s optimal to make the best team on the field. If he wants to start and the management doesn’t agree then there’s 2 choices. Either the player changes his views or the FO trades him to someone who allows that if that’s what he really wants. The second option is extremely selfish and that’s not a guy any player or management wants on their team. 

[Fatbat]

Its an interesting topic but isnt it more important to win.  We have lots of SP arms developing and we also need a shut down bullpen. Jax could handle more innings in the pen and guys like Varland need to understand the importance of 80-100 elite innings in a season. Winners get paid. 

[jmlease1]

The only argument that works for making Jax a starter again is that over the last couple of years he's refined and improved his primary pitches (sweeper, 4-seamer, changeup, and sinker) enough that he's not the same pitcher he was as a starter. And it's true...but how much of his fastball improvement is based on his ability to throw it with max effort and never needing to pace himself any longer? The sweeper is unquestionably better, but can he throw it 40% of the time as a starter without making his elbow explode or making it so players can recognize it the 2nd-3rd time through? Is the changeup going to work when he has to throw to players who have seen it from the bench and at the plate in the same game? Is the sinker good enough to throw regularly throughout a game or is it effective only against 40-50% sweepers? Will he need to throw the curveball regularly and can he?

He's been healthy and reliable as a reliever, but can he do that as a starter? I don't doubt that he will work hard and prepare properly, but it's a lot more innings that he'll need to throw to be an effective starter. If they have to protect him as a "5 and Fly" guy (or worse) because he can't get deep into games...what else are you doing to your bullpen? Bad enough that you're taking your best reliever out of the back end and making the end of games less certain, but what if he can't throw effectively long enough that the Twins need even more relief innings? Some fans will complain about Baldelli's "quick hook", but you'll complain a lot more if Jax gets blown up in the 5th-6th inning on the regular.

There's very little track record to suggest that this will work. Sure, Johan Santana transitioned from the bullpen to a starter, but he was a) 25, and b) was still starting games for the Twins before he got a full-time spot in the rotation. Not a great comp. How did it work when the Twins moved Aguilera back to the rotation? (and Aguilera at least had some success as a starter in MLB) It's also important to remember that players are notoriously bad at being able to assess their own capacity and capability in this kind of way. They don't report minor injuries because they're convinced they'll be fine. How many pitchers per season ask to get pulled because they're gassed? (it's so rare that people write stories about it for days) Sometime players need to be protected from themselves.

There's a lot of risk to moving Jax into the rotation. Expecting him to succeed and be better than SWR (which should be the bar, and it's not really all that high) would honestly make him a unicorn in MLB. Is that a smart bet, or is this all just a way to get the front office and coaching staff fired? It also exposes the bullpen, which should be a strength with Duran, Jax, Sands, Alcala, Topa, Stewart, Tonkin, and Varland as options. But pulling out one of the absolute best and most reliable pieces makes it tougher.

Jax is also a military guy. The risk of him becoming discontented and a problem because the Twins decided not to make a move that is seriously risk-filled and probably detrimental to the team and possibly even the player is very low and is not even a marginally compelling argument.

[mikelink45]

I don't want him to be a SP, but I also know a frustrated and pouting player is not good.  I would let him get some starts in ST and then put him in the BP with an understanding that he could get a spot start or two.  I know he gets good money - everyone in MLB does, but I also know he could get more as a SP.

I would take Varland out of the SP rotation too and put him in the BP.

 

[jmlease1]

40 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I don't want him to be a SP, but I also know a frustrated and pouting player is not good.  I would let him get some starts in ST and then put him in the BP with an understanding that he could get a spot start or two.  I know he gets good money - everyone in MLB does, but I also know he could get more as a SP.

I would take Varland out of the SP rotation too and put him in the BP.

 

It's interesting that people are worried about Jax being upset and "pouting" or something, and not about Varland. Sure, Varland was bad last season as a starter, but he had shown much more success at MLB as a starter than Jax ever did. Varland is almost certainly being moved to the bullpen after being passed by Festa and Matthews and with others on the way, and the response from most Twins fans has been "good, he might be able to help in the bullpen". I'm sure he'd still prefer to start and isn't ready to give up on that, but around here we see more comments about how the Twins should have done this sooner, and I can't recall one single person being concerned about whether Varland will be happy about this.

So, because the Twins moved Jax to the bullpen and he was great at it, we now should be deeply concerned about whether or not he'll be happy about staying there if he's interested in going back to something he had very poor success at?

I'm not saying the Twins should ignore Jax, tell him to shut up and throw, etc. (and they're not stupid, and they'll talk to him like a person) But he doesn't get to decide this.

[JD-TWINS]

On 11/30/2024 at 11:49 AM, TopGunn#22 said:

Starting pitching is always the foundation for a winning ball club.  There are many factors at play here not the least of which are what's best for Jax and what's best for the Twins.  And they do not have to be mutually exclusive.

I think Jax is a bulldog, and he will probably succeed with a transition to the rotation.  This article primarily focuses on all the negative aspects of Jax joining the rotation, and while there ARE risks, with his stuff and pitch mix, he could be pretty darn good as a SP.  His work ethic influences me to think he will be a pretty good #4 SP.  Maybe good enough to be a #3.  

I think what I would do is have a meeting with Jax in which I would discuss a WIDE range of possible outcomes.  One of which would be what if Duran was traded and you became the primary closer?  I'm not anxious to trade Duran.  But Jax is more consistent and could thrive as our closer.  And Duran is probably the best trade piece to acquire a young "Catcher of the Future."  Both the Red Sox and the Dodgers have a huge need for a closer and a young catcher (Teel-Red Sox, Rushing-Dodgers) who could be available.

The Red Sox got a solid year out of Connor Wong behind the plate but I think Teel would be harder to get than Rushing from the Dodgers.  The Dodgers have 3 top rated catchers in their farm system, each of whom are very close to becoming major leaguers.  Each of those guys is blocked by All Star Will Smith and Austin Barnes, a backup catcher the Dodgers like a lot and who pitchers love to throw to.

If Duran were used in a trade to bring one of them back, that would allow the Twins to trade either Vasquez or Jeffers, saving money that could be deployed to areas of need while adding offense to our catching platoon.  

If the Twins have no plan or desire to trade Duran, moving Jax to the rotation allows the Twins to dangle a young SP like SWR in a trade.  The Orioles, Red Sox and Dodgers all need SP.  The Dodgers just signed Blake Snell and if they also have the inside track to sign Roki Sasaki they wouldn't need SWR.  But the Orioles and Red Sox have acute rotation needs and a young SP like SWR could bring back something pretty special.  For teams like the Red Sox and Orioles, depending on how FA works out, a package of SWR AND Paddack could be very attractive.  

Finally, if Lugo and Lopez are any indication of what Jax could do in the rotation, imagine how good the #4 spot in our rotation would look with Jax holding it down.  Finally, I don't like the idea of Festa being thought of as needing more time at St. Paul.  I liked what I saw last year and I would like to see him as the #5 rotation piece. 

I just don't like the idea of a team that thinks they should be contending going with 2 or 3  2nd year pitchers in their rotation. I think Matthews could use a little more time in St. Paul. I like Festa's stuff.  I think SWR will never have a higher off season value.  All that adds up to moving SWR in a trade that brings something very good back and putting somebody with bigger upside at the #4 spot in our rotation, allowing Festa to grow as our #5.  

That #4 guy could be Jax.  Or Jax could be our closer.  Our we shock the world and sign someone to be our #4 SP, leave Duran and Jax in the pen, trade SWR for something nice and put Festa in as #5.  Any of those scenarios work for me.  

I propose a complex set of moves that basically has Jax going to the closer role for this specific post.

I propose trading Jeffers - Matthews - Henriquez to D-backs for their young catcher Moreno and Jordan Montgomery. Twins take on $13M of his $25M salary. AZ gets rid of Montgomery and gets a reasonable Catcher in Jeffers along with two young, upside arms.

Twins then trade Duran (replaces Jansen) - Montgomery - Paddack - Miranda to the Red Sox for Tristan Casas (1B).

Castro may need to go to Boston instead of Miranda……..Miranda or Castro give them 3B depth for Devers and Miranda could fill 1B - Boston’s preference?

TWINS shed $4.7M - $3.7M - $7.5M in moving these guys. An additional $6.3M if Castro is involved. $22.2M to spend. Most importantly they obtain a Catcher & First Baseman along with FA $$ available to fill a need.

Dream world??

[Fezig]

21 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

71 innings v. 171 innings …… the reliever v. starter expectations. His pitch effectiveness will diminish, fact that everyone would acknowledge, including Jax. His max level effort out of the Pen, to me, gives a false impression of what he could be as a starter. Now, some due to psychology, it’s a big deal for him to pitch more than one inning - or 25 pitches per outing.

He averages 2.82 innings over the 25 week season (71 innings) v. 6.78 innings as a starter over 25 week season (171 innings).

Starting is a different world, from the ability to be effective - to maintaining health - to reinventing what’s going on between your ears.

It was more of a rip on the manager than comparing stats. I should have been more clear. On a side note, what goes on between the ears doesn't matter with the guys in charge. Starters get yanked once they get to the third time through the lineup. Guys like Jack Morris and Jim Kaat would never complete a game regardless of how tenacious or intelligent they are.

[mikelink45]

21 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

It's interesting that people are worried about Jax being upset and "pouting" or something, and not about Varland. Sure, Varland was bad last season as a starter, but he had shown much more success at MLB as a starter than Jax ever did. Varland is almost certainly being moved to the bullpen after being passed by Festa and Matthews and with others on the way, and the response from most Twins fans has been "good, he might be able to help in the bullpen". I'm sure he'd still prefer to start and isn't ready to give up on that, but around here we see more comments about how the Twins should have done this sooner, and I can't recall one single person being concerned about whether Varland will be happy about this.

So, because the Twins moved Jax to the bullpen and he was great at it, we now should be deeply concerned about whether or not he'll be happy about staying there if he's interested in going back to something he had very poor success at?

I'm not saying the Twins should ignore Jax, tell him to shut up and throw, etc. (and they're not stupid, and they'll talk to him like a person) But he doesn't get to decide this.

Jax has established that he is a solid if not star MLB player.  Varland is still struggling to show that he is more than a short term arm that could be good or bad.  No comparison between them.  

[old nurse]

On 11/30/2024 at 9:26 PM, DJL44 said:

Why do you think he can't be more than a back of the rotation starter? The whole idea of taking the risk is to get another top of the rotation arm like Lopez, Ober and Ryan. I agree, there isn't much to be gained if Jax is another Chris Paddack.

Being a starter is different pitching than a relief pitcher. He is not going to average 97 on his FB. There will be drops in velocity  on his other pitches as well. No one has mentioned an out pitch for him. 

Paddack has been injured. For some reason the FO thinks that oft injured pitchers can return to baseline quickly. If Paddack is healthy for a year it might look entirely different than last year. He was solid his first 2 years before the injury bug hit. Somebody said something about risk/reward  

[h2oface]

#1 risk: A player atually gets to try to be who he wants to be. Imagine that.