Pitching Pipeline Keeps Flowing: Cory Lewis, Marco Raya Sparkled in Saints Debuts

[Jamie Cameron]

Cory Lewis and Marco Raya made their Triple-A debuts in St. Paul in the final week of the Saints' season. Let’s dig into what they threw, how it looked, and the prognosis for each in 2025 and beyond.

Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints

Cory Lewis
It’s hard to imagine a more pleasing combination of outcomes than the ‘college four’ the Twins drafted in 2022, composed of Andrew Morris, Zebby Matthews, Cory Lewis, and C.J. Culpepper. Each has had ample success early in their professional careers. Taken as a foursome, what they’ve accomplished is remarkable; we shouldn’t take it for granted.

Heading into 2024, Lewis was the most famous of the four. Shoulder fatigue delayed his start to the season, and the twin ascensions (one to each of the Twin Cities) of Zebby Matthews and Andrew Morris diminished Lewis’s starshine ever so slightly. After a strong second half of the season at Double-A Wichita, Lewis was rewarded with a Triple-A debut, so let’s dig into what he showed.

Lewis pitched five innings, giving up seven hits, two earned runs, walking three and striking out two. Unlike Matthews and Morris, Lewis isn’t an elite strike thrower. He managed a Strike% of just 58.8% in his first Triple-A start (compared to 62.9% on the season in Double A, and an MLB league average of 65%).

Lewis threw his four-seam fastball 30.6% of the time in his first start for the Saints. He averaged 19.1 inches of induced vertical break on the pitch, albeit from a higher release point. What was noticeable about Lewis’s fastball, was his velocity was down. It averaged just 89.9 mph. Even with a solid shape, that will need to tick back up a few mph to maximize it’s effectiveness. I’m putting that down to the grind of a long season.

Lewis threw his knuckleball plenty (which also seems to be mischaracterized as a slider at times). It’s going to be an incredibly fun pitch to track. On the occasions it was correctly classified, it averaged just 243 RPM in spin rate, with a few thrown at 135 RPM. That’s diabolical. The pitch warrants further discussion, as it’s so unique. While Lewis kills spin at a similar level to Matt Waldron’s knuckleball and gets less play vertically, its velocity is unique. Lewis threw his hardest knuckleball in his start for the Saints at 86 miles per hour, and the pitch averaged over 83 MPH. (For reference, Waldron’s knucklers average 77.) It’s a deception of velocity, just as much as the unpredictable action of the baseball.

It’s hard to pull the threads of Lewis’ profile together, for me. There are exciting assets in the fastball shape, the knuckleball, and the solid secondary offerings; and there are some challenges with a lack of elite velocity and shaky strike-throwing. He’ll continue to be a fascinating pitcher to track in 2025, and should get an extended run in St. Paul to open the season.

Marco Raya
Along with Kala’i Rosario, Raya is the remaining Twins holdout from the abbreviated 2020 COVID Draft, in which there were just five rounds. Then a 17-year-old, Raya’s scouting reports coming out of Texas emphasized the cleanness of his mechanics and repeatability of his delivery. Finally, four years later, we can pull back the hood on the stuff a little more tangibly.

Raya is the Twins prospect I hear complained about the most, through no fault of his own. He’s been on strict pitch counts even in his last two seasons. It’s debatable whether the Twins should have gotten him more exposure to seeing a lineup for a third time, especially as he's ascended to the upper minors. An undeniable positive is that he’s now on the doorstep of the majors, and is still healthy. All things considered, keeping his health front and center is logical to me.

In his debut, Raya threw 65 pitches. His four-seam fastball, although with an unremarkable shape, topped out at 96.2 mph. Raya also threw a pair of two-seam fastballs, averaging 12 inches of horizontal break. The other obvious thing about Raya is that he can really spin a baseball. His arsenal is rounded out by a cutter, slider and curveball. The two breaking pitches averaged close to 2,800 RPM, and the curveball got to 3,000, with around a foot of downward induced vertical break. It looks extremely tough on hitters.

My hope for Raya is a lengthy, healthy runway at Triple-A in 2025. He’s undersized (listed at 6’0", 170 pounds), but has a legitimately diverse pitch mix and will eventually need to get reps surpassing 75 pitches if he’ll continue to be a starter as he gets closer to making an MLB debut.

Saints Boast Impressive Pitching Depth for 2025
Taking a more global snapshot of the Twins organizational pitching depth, one can’t help but be encouraged. ‘Where is the pitching pipeline?’, the pithy refrain so blithely thrown around Twins Twitter as a subject of mockery in the earlier years of the Falvey regime, now has a cheeky but not mockable answer: right here. The team's dedication to scouting and development excellence, especially on the pitching side, is now bearing fruit. Not only that, its product is diverse, intriguing, and fun.

Let’s travel down the 2025 rabbit hole for just a moment. In this future iteration of the Twins, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland are both full-time relievers. The Opening Day rotation of the big-league team is Pablo López, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan, Simeon Woods Richardson, and David Festa. That’s a solid five. Let’s examine the immediate depth behind them at St. Paul.

Without being able to predict offseason veteran signings, the Saints are likely to have Zebby Matthews, Andrew Morris, Cory Lewis, Marco Raya, and Randy Dobnak as starters, with Travis Adams as an extra option. Behind them at Wichita, there’s Pierson Ohl, Christian MacLeod, and C.J. Culpepper. This list goes on. Of course, that’s not to say all these pitchers will remain starters, remain effective starters, stay healthy, or even remain with the organization. Let’s make no mistake, though, the Minnesota Twins are a pitching development organization. That’s what they do well. If they want to trade assets to improve their offense prior to 2025, it’s likely to be from that deep corps of potential starters. In a season for the organization that seems to have ended in uniquely jarring disappointment, the saving grace is the feeling that the future remains bright.

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[Rosterman]

I love the pitching pipeline. Festa said he is going to work on his curve ball this off-season, otherwise, like Varland, he may be better suited to the bullpen longterm.

Morris Lewis Raya will all be on-deck to appear in 2025 and hopefully one breaks the rotation in 2026. You gotta love the promising depth. SWR and Matthews both will be fighting for the 5th position come spring training.

It means the Twins could flip Lopez come the following off-season (or mid-season if 2025 isn't competitive). It allows them to play the Guardians game of moving players as they enter final arbitration years if they don't feel they are worth the big free agent contract down-the-line.

With young pitchers, the key is getting them innings, and capable of throwing 150+ in the majors.

 

[jmlease1]

The starting pitching depth in the high minors is in a good place right now. But we'll need at least one or two of these guys to really step forward and show out. the good thing is, there are enough guys there with upside that the odds are actually in our favor on that one for once.

I suspect Paddack will still get a shot at the rotation next season, for better or worse. So that will give us Festa, Matthews, Morris, Adams, Lewis, Raya, Nowlin, and Culpepper as the most likely next group between AAA and AA. Good grief, I just ran off 8 names and Pierson Ohl wasn't even one of them. Macleod and Prielipp are barely on the radar yet.

Let the best pitchers rise.

[jkcarew]

Maybe NEXT YEAR Raya will finally have the training wheels taken off? There seemed to be some willingness to let him go a bit longer toward the very end of the season (in terms of pitch count at least)

[twinzcynic]

10 hours ago, Rosterman said:

I love the pitching pipeline.

Me too. 7 years of it and now we are blessed with such an abundance of pitchers and we don't have enough middle reliever roster spots for all of them!

[Fatbat]

It sure took long enough to get here. Can we also get the next step in development underway where 1 or 2 become better than the #5/6 mlb starter. 
KC and Detroilet both won playoff games last night…..

note to Joe Pohlad….. you failed at right sizing your MLB payroll in ‘24. Do better in ‘25 by not leaning too heavy on all these young kids. 
 

[Doctor Wu]

Lots of good pitching prospects for sure, but as jmlease1 noted, but need a couple of those arms to become dominant ones. After his encouraging showing this season I am hoping that Prielipp is able to throw more innings in 2025 and inch closer to making his MLB debut. 

[JD-TWINS]

21 hours ago, Rosterman said:

I love the pitching pipeline. Festa said he is going to work on his curve ball this off-season, otherwise, like Varland, he may be better suited to the bullpen longterm.

Morris Lewis Raya will all be on-deck to appear in 2025 and hopefully one breaks the rotation in 2026. You gotta love the promising depth. SWR and Matthews both will be fighting for the 5th position come spring training.

It means the Twins could flip Lopez come the following off-season (or mid-season if 2025 isn't competitive). It allows them to play the Guardians game of moving players as they enter final arbitration years if they don't feel they are worth the big free agent contract down-the-line.

With young pitchers, the key is getting them innings, and capable of throwing 150+ in the majors.

 

Festa potentially to the bullpen? Waaay premature for that thinking. I agree with the World that he needs a change of speed pitch - occasional curve ball.

SWR is the #4 starter in ‘25 unless he’s hurt. Festa is #5 unless he’s hurt. If they are flipped - no big deal - they are in the rotation.

Would like to see Raya in long relief by September at Target to get a little experience and, obviously, help the Club. Looking at ‘26 for a possible competitive look at the Rotation.

Matthews needs to develop his “in zone command” with his fastball. Gain experience with his off speed. Slider is encouraging!

Would like more info on Morris’ stuff. His MiLB numbers look great but don’t know what he throws nor velocity………..he appears to have promise.

[Otaknam]

The Twins need for two of these prospects to show a very high upside as top of the rotation number one or two starters. They have enough number five starters for the back of the rotation, like Festa, Matthews and SWR. Pitching depth is great, but if they are all number five starters, then that’s not that exciting. Raya’s pitch count limit is still a mystery. Is that because of his slight stature for a starter and they are being cautious, or because they already have injury concerns? I don’t see any downside to providing fans some insight on how they are handling Raya.

[JD-TWINS]

8 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

The Twins need for two of these prospects to show a very high upside as top of the rotation number one or two starters. They have enough number five starters for the back of the rotation, like Festa, Matthews and SWR. Pitching depth is great, but if they are all number five starters, then that’s not that exciting. Raya’s pitch count limit is still a mystery. Is that because of his slight stature for a starter and they are being cautious, or because they already have injury concerns? I don’t see any downside to providing fans some insight on how they are handling Raya.

Festa has 3 pitches (needs a better change of speed pitch) - he’s got 96Mph velocity - good slider - in his debut season he was a #5 - #4 guy. With Lopez/Ryan/Ober, he’s not passing them most likely, in ‘25. He’s definitely got an opportunity to be a Top of rotation pitcher going forward though.

Raya, drafted at 17, does have smaller stature. Would assume, he was probably still growing and filling out through ‘22-‘23. 5 inning start in St Paul recently at age 22. He’s going to be OK with this progression.

 

20 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

The Twins need for two of these prospects to show a very high upside as top of the rotation number one or two starters. They have enough number five starters for the back of the rotation, like Festa, Matthews and SWR. Pitching depth is great, but if they are all number five starters, then that’s not that exciting. Raya’s pitch count limit is still a mystery. Is that because of his slight stature for a starter and they are being cautious, or because they already have injury concerns? I don’t see any downside to providing fans some insight on how they are handling Raya.

Woods was #6 - then #5 - then all the way up to #3 down the stretch. He’s 23. His velocity is better than Ober’s, with less extension and a more traditional release point, but it was his first season in MLB. For instance, Ober was on innings limit first couple forays in the Show. I don’t think SWR’s stuff has him vaulting forward in the rotation but with experience and gained stamina, he can be a solid guy extending his successful start in ‘24.

[Linus]

The pipeline will have arrived when these guys are effective pitchers in the big leagues. The biggest hurdle is still in front of them.