The Twins Missed Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton, but Letting Them Get Healthy Was the Right Call - Caretaker Exclusive

[Davy Andrews]

The Twins resisted the temptation to rush their two biggest stars back from injury. So far, they've been rewarded for their patience.

Image courtesy of © Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

Since returning from a two-month absence due to plantar fasciitis, Carlos Correa has only played in four games, one of them as a designated hitter. In those four games, though, he has looked comfortable. He’s coming off a three-hit game on Wednesday and a two-walk game on Thursday. In that tiny four-game sample, he’s running a 1.068 OPS. Byron Buxton has been back for five games himself, after missing a month due to a hip issue. Despite a rough game on Wednesday, he’s also looked like solid since his return, running an .833 OPS and contributing defensively. Just to be clear, these sample sizes are so small as to be meaningless.

What’s not meaningless is the fact that both players have, by all appearances, returned ready to play at something like full strength. Both in the field and at the plate, they look like themselves, rather than hobbled shadows of their former glory. Both players have seen their average bat speed drop by less than a single mile per hour since their return. In other words, they’re not taking weak cuts because they can’t put their whole body into a swing. They’re able to swing the bat hard and hit the ball hard. They haven’t shown any evidence of defensive limitations, either.

We’re talking about superstars, and there is no question that the Twins missed them dearly as they watched their chances--first of winning a division title, and now of securing the final Wild Card spot--dwindle. I don’t know what will happen over the next week, and if the team doesn't recover from its current collapse and misses out on the playoffs, these two absences will loom very large in any postmortem we write about their season. However, I honestly don’t think the Twins could have handled these situations any better than they did.

Keep in mind what Correa and Buxton contributed while playing through injuries in 2023. Correa put up a 95 wRC+ and 1.8 WAR while gutting it out through plantar fasciitis. Both numbers were the second-worst of his career (trailing only the short 2020 season), and they added up to a season that was a bit below average. Buxton didn’t play in the field all year, and in August, a hamstring strain finally knocked him out for the rest of the regular season. In all, he limped to a 97 wRC+ and 0.6 WAR. Once again, that’s a bit below average, but it’s devastatingly low for a designated hitter, and both numbers were the lowest Buxton had put up since 2018. We’ll never know what would have happened had the Twins encouraged Buxton and Correa to fight through their respective injuries and play every day this season, but it’s hard to imagine that they would have performed any better than they did in 2023, and they almost certainly would have put themselves in greater danger of injuring themselves further. Whether or not Correa and Buxton keep performing well, it just made sense to resist the temptation to rush them back. It gave them the best chance of getting and staying healthy in the long run, and it gave the team the best chance of seeing them play at a high level when it counts the most.

Before the season, the Twins said that they were hoping to get 100 games out of Buxton in center field. They won’t be far off that goal, as he’s now played in 87 and started 80 contests. Although Manuel Margot hasn’t put up the season they hoped, he’s a solid center fielder, and he was brought in for the express purpose of acting as, essentially, a second starting center fielder. The Twins built a deep team and relied on prospect depth to fill in the gaps, and now, their two biggest stars have returned and hit the ground running in time for the stretch run. Willi Castro has emerged as a star in his own right, and he’s put up excellent defensive numbers while filling in at shortstop. We may not love the idea of shifting Royce Lewis over to second base in order to make room for José Miranda at third, but it’s important to keep in mind that (unpalatable though it may be), the idea is an answer to the best possible question a team can have: How do we make room in our lineup for all these great hitters?

Letting Correa and Buxton (not to mention Lewis) get fully healthy didn’t just allow the Twins to get their best players back when it mattered the most; it also allowed them to keep their role players and bench players engaged and ready to play. Christian Vázquez has looked like a completely different hitter during the second half, and Kyle Farmer has exploded, running a 230 wRC+ since Aug. 26. All of a sudden, this lineup doesn’t have any holes, and because even the bench players have been getting steady playing time, there aren’t many holes there, either. By being unafraid to use fill-ins, the Twins have assembled an all-killer, no-filler lineup.

Just two Twins, Castro and Carlos Santana, will qualify for a batting title this season. But the team has nine different players – and if you’re keeping score at home, that’s how many you get to put in your lineup – who have run a wRC+ above 110 while making at least 240 plate appearances. That’s the most in baseball. The only other teams with seven such players are the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Mets. Minnesota may not have Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, but you could argue that there isn’t a lineup in baseball that’s tougher from top to bottom. None of this matters if the Twins end up missing the playoffs, but if they don't, they'll be glad that their stars are as close to 100% as they can get them.

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[jkcarew]

Correa’s 2023 was almost completely due to BABiP. He hit the ball hard all season…as he has this season…with a 72 percentage point improvement in BABiP.

Buxton’s been having his most consistently productive offensive season ever, IMO. But when you have discomfort…

[Craig Arko]

1 hour ago, Davy Andrews said:

All of a sudden, this lineup doesn’t have any holes, and because even the bench players have been getting steady playing time, there aren’t many holes there, either.

Are you sure about that?

[bean5302]

Considering Correa is on record saying it wasn't possible for him to play because he couldn't even walk without being in pain, the Twins really didn't have an option but to wait.

Also, neither player is healthy. They're both borderline playable and day to day.

[KP34Forever]

"Although Manuel Margot hasn’t put up the season they hoped, he’s a solid center fielder, and he was brought in for the express purpose of acting as, essentially, a second starting center fielder."

 

I know it's not actually the case, but my selective memory can't recall a single time that Margot started in CF or was even a defensive substitution there. To me, it seemed like Rocco actively tried to avoid playing him in center, even though that's the reason we went out and got him to begin with. When Buxton wasn't out there it was either Castro or Martin.

I looked it up. Here's how it plays out up to this point for games that included an appearance in CF (starts in parentheses)

Buxton 88 (81)

Martin 39 (32)

Castro 29 (24)

Margot 21 (14)

Keirsey 4 (3)

Helman 3 (0)

Kepler 0 (0) ...............sorry, couldn't resist the opportunity to throw Max under the bus (or Buck Truck?)

For someone who was brought in to be our primary backup for Buxton, he was used in that capacity in less than 20% of the opportunities to do so (don't get me wrong, if you ask me, that was probably 14 too many starts....or maybe it was not enough starts by roughly 30? Yet Rocco, for reasons beyond any logical comprehension, still sends him out there to pinch hit in extra innings when he's setting records going 0-for 2024 pinch hitting and we're desperately clinging to the hope of a wild card berth)

Next year we need an actual, legitimate backup for Buxton.

 

Martin isn't it unless he finds a way to hit .270+ with 10+ home runs in a utility role - oh wait that sounds an awful lot like what Castro does. Trade Martin with one or two other players (Maybe Larnach or Kiriloff and Julien who we don't have room for?) for a legitimate number 3 starter, not the usual junk pile find we've grown accustomed to (DeSclafani etc.)

Castro should get a few starts in CF but his value is his flexibility, so he can't be the primary backup in CF and lose that flexibility the next time Buxton gets hurt.

Margot - more like Mar-no...

Emmanuel Rodriguez - Trade Larnach or Kiriloff with Martin and Julien for that #3 starter and you open up a corner outfield spot for Rodriguez opposite of Wallner. When Buxton inevitably goes in the IL, slide Emma into CF, move Wallner to RF if he wasn't already there, and have your 4th outfielder (whoever you didn't trade between Larnach and Kiriloff, or Helman perhaps) take LF and have Castro as your 5th outfielder if needed.

Or if we're not ready to trust Rodriguez with a full time spot yet (keep him in the minors until there a permanent opening for him) then they need to find a better solution than Margot and how they used him this year. He really felt like a wasted roster spot to me...

But the Pohlad's obviously aren't going to spend the amount of money or would take to find that solution, so here's hoping we see a lot of Emmanuel Rodriguez next year tearing the cover off the ball! 

Just please, no more Margot pinch hitting this year 🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼

[Doctor Gast]

I'm for one have been in favor of not playing our players while they are hurting & not able to perform at a reasonable level. To fix the problem. Although the problems haven't been totally fixed, but these are desperate times that demand desperate measures.

Margot was acquired to sub CF & be that RH masher off the bench. Margot has been more of a burden than an asset. Thank God for Martin who stepped in and took the brunt of Buxton's absence. While Margot got all the easy LHPs Martin had to struggle against the RHPs. Margot was a big mistake on many levels passed off from LAD. We'd have done better w/o him.  With (LH) Keirsey getting most of the time against  RHPs in CF & Martin being eased in CF against LHPs. This is just one of the reasons that contributed to our demise.

 

[LambchoP]

Margot a solid CF? I got a good laugh out of that one. Twins will always need a true CF as backup to Buxton,but Margot certainly is not that. We have Keirsey, Martin and eventually R Rod coming up. I think any one of these guys would be more productive than Margot while providing better defense. Correa, Buxton and Lewis are key to this team. They need to be out there, everyday and at the same position. Quit trying to turn everyone into a Wiki Castro and just let them learn one position well. A lineup that isn't completely different everyday might help s bit too. It's got to be hard for our hitters to get into a routine not knowing if they're playing day to day. And if they are, not knowing where they're hitting in the lineup or where they're playing on the field. Look at the last CLE series. They had just about the same lineup and defense each day.

[RpR]

2 hours ago, LambchoP said:

Margot a solid CF? I got a good laugh out of that one. Twins will always need a true CF as backup to Buxton,but Margot certainly is not that. We have Keirsey, Martin and eventually R Rod coming up. I think any one of these guys would be more productive than Margot while providing better defense. Correa, Buxton and Lewis are key to this team. They need to be out there, everyday and at the same position. Quit trying to turn everyone into a Wiki Castro and just let them learn one position well. A lineup that isn't completely different everyday might help s bit too. It's got to be hard for our hitters to get into a routine not knowing if they're playing day to day. And if they are, not knowing where they're hitting in the lineup or where they're playing on the field. Look at the last CLE series. They had just about the same lineup and defense each day.

Lewis the key to nothing.

[ewen21]

37 minutes ago, RpR said:

Lewis the key to nothing.

If I’m looking for a big hit in a big spot I want Lewis up over ANYONE on this team.

 

[RpR]

1 hour ago, ewen21 said:

If I’m looking for a big hit in a big spot I want Lewis up over ANYONE on this team.

 

He has done a lot of nothing with runners in scoring position often; he was fortunate with having he  bases loaded witht those home runs, NOT that he is a wonder with a bat.

More like Buxton, good streaks and horrid slumps.

[ewen21]

35 minutes ago, RpR said:

He has done a lot of noting with runners in scoring position often; he was fortunate with having he  bases loaded witht those home runs, NOT that he is a wonder with a bat.

More like Buxton, good streaks and horrid slumps.

Unlike Buxton, big hits in the playoffs

[JD-TWINS]

12 hours ago, KP34Forever said:

"Although Manuel Margot hasn’t put up the season they hoped, he’s a solid center fielder, and he was brought in for the express purpose of acting as, essentially, a second starting center fielder."

 

I know it's not actually the case, but my selective memory can't recall a single time that Margot started in CF or was even a defensive substitution there. To me, it seemed like Rocco actively tried to avoid playing him in center, even though that's the reason we went out and got him to begin with. When Buxton wasn't out there it was either Castro or Martin.

I looked it up. Here's how it plays out up to this point for games that included an appearance in CF (starts in parentheses)

Buxton 88 (81)

Martin 39 (32)

Castro 29 (24)

Margot 21 (14)

Keirsey 4 (3)

Helman 3 (0)

Kepler 0 (0) ...............sorry, couldn't resist the opportunity to throw Max under the bus (or Buck Truck?)

For someone who was brought in to be our primary backup for Buxton, he was used in that capacity in less than 20% of the opportunities to do so (don't get me wrong, if you ask me, that was probably 14 too many starts....or maybe it was not enough starts by roughly 30? Yet Rocco, for reasons beyond any logical comprehension, still sends him out there to pinch hit in extra innings when he's setting records going 0-for 2024 pinch hitting and we're desperately clinging to the hope of a wild card berth)

Next year we need an actual, legitimate backup for Buxton.

 

Martin isn't it unless he finds a way to hit .270+ with 10+ home runs in a utility role - oh wait that sounds an awful lot like what Castro does. Trade Martin with one or two other players (Maybe Larnach or Kiriloff and Julien who we don't have room for?) for a legitimate number 3 starter, not the usual junk pile find we've grown accustomed to (DeSclafani etc.)

Castro should get a few starts in CF but his value is his flexibility, so he can't be the primary backup in CF and lose that flexibility the next time Buxton gets hurt.

Margot - more like Mar-no...

Emmanuel Rodriguez - Trade Larnach or Kiriloff with Martin and Julien for that #3 starter and you open up a corner outfield spot for Rodriguez opposite of Wallner. When Buxton inevitably goes in the IL, slide Emma into CF, move Wallner to RF if he wasn't already there, and have your 4th outfielder (whoever you didn't trade between Larnach and Kiriloff, or Helman perhaps) take LF and have Castro as your 5th outfielder if needed.

Or if we're not ready to trust Rodriguez with a full time spot yet (keep him in the minors until there a permanent opening for him) then they need to find a better solution than Margot and how they used him this year. He really felt like a wasted roster spot to me...

But the Pohlad's obviously aren't going to spend the amount of money or would take to find that solution, so here's hoping we see a lot of Emmanuel Rodriguez next year tearing the cover off the ball! 

Just please, no more Margot pinch hitting this year 🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼

I get the Margot angst and certainly understand challenging the statement about him being “a solid center fielder”!

Trading a few guys in a group to try and find some reasonable value for a potential trade partner seems logical. The bad news is all 29 other Teams have video and scouts and TV’s and computers and brains and none of them are trading a #3 starter for 2-3 guys the Twins don’t want, because they aren’t good enough to play regularly on a competent Team.

ROTATION: Lopez - Ryan - Ober were all essentially Top 40 pitchers in baseball (blending WHIP - K’s - K/walk ratio - innings - etc.) before Ryan got hurt(3 of Top 40 & there’s 30 Teams) ………add Festa after a dozen starts in ‘24 & SWR after 26 starts in ‘24 and our rotation is fine in ‘25…… Paddack/Matthews & couple more farm guys in the wings.

PEN: Moran - Funderburk - Irvin - Stewart - Topa - Henriquez - Headrick - Winder - Alcala - Varland - Paddack - Jax - Sands - Duran - Blewett - Tonkin - Canterino……….,that’s 17 guys w/o digging too deep. At least 10 of these guys can be exceptional, when healthy. Signing a FA, that’s a competent reliever is a crap shoot. Not against it completely but one never knows……maybe explore this?

I don’t see the gaping holes in the Twins near term Roster.

 

[S Bart]

I was conflicted but now it looks like it was a good move. A classic example is the Red Sox Rafael Devers (331 million for 10 years). He has played hurt for some time and his batting average has suffered. Today, they finally put him on the IL.