The Elder Statesman: Can Caleb Thielbar Lift a Lagging Twins Bullpen?

[Nick Nelson]

Looking to put the sour memories of last year's playoffs and this year's first half behind him, Caleb Thielbar has an opportunity to assume a crucial leadership role and help salvage a wayward bullpen in September.

Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

Caleb Thielbar's career has been quite a journey up to this point. The Minnesota native was a late draft pack out of South Dakota State, fizzled out of affiliated ball, signed with the Twins out of an independent league, put together a solid multi-year run in the major leagues, fizzled out of affiliated ball again, then took a college coaching position before signing with the Twins again. He has since put together one of the better prolonged stretches we've seen from a Minnesota relief pitcher. From 2020 through 2023, Thielbar posted a 3.21 ERA, 3.16 FIP, and 130 ERA+ over 174 innings, striking out 215 batters.

It's the kind of real-life fairy tale they make movies about, but here in the late chapters, Thielbar has hardly been trending toward a storybook ending. The left-hander has struggled with injuries and lapses in execution over the past couple of seasons, betraying his sturdy reputation of dependability. Last year he was limited to 30 regular-season innings, and he imploded in the ALDS where he surrendered a pair of key homers, including the go-ahead shot by José Abreu in Game 4 that proved decisive. 

 

His rough ending to 2023 carried spilled over into 2024. Thielbar got hurt in spring training, missed the first two weeks, gave up three runs in his first appearance, and proceeded to struggle throughout the first half of the season. By the end of June he had a 7.00 ERA, with opponents hitting .317/.391/.494 against him. His 19-to-11 K/BB ratio in 18 innings inspired little confidence as Thielbar became part of the problem in a bullpen increasingly lacking for reliable late-inning options.

Since around the midpoint of the season, however, Thielbar has shown real signs of improvement, suggesting the bullpen's elder statesman is not entirely out of gas at age 37. His 4.50 ERA since the start of July is obviously much better than that 7.00 mark he brought in, but it doesn't reflect how much better Thielbar has pitched. In 23 appearances, the lefty has held opponents to a .222/.284/.333 slash line, allowing only two homers with a 28-to-7 K/BB ratio. He has a 2.77 FIP in this time, compared to 5.07 before July.

 

The Twins really need Thielbar to sustain this caliber of performance and finish strong. It's not just because he's the sole left-hander in the bullpen picture currently – although that does elevate his importance somewhat. The team is just desperately short on trusted high-leverage arms in general, and Thielbar so often in the past has been that. If he can lock in for these final weeks and complement Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Cole Sands and Jorge Alcalá, rather than blending in with the so-so supporting cast in the relief corps, Thielbar could be a big difference-maker. 

There's still time for a storybook ending to his Twins career.

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[LambchoP]

It's pretty clear Theilbar is done for and will be gone after this season. The only reason he still has an MLB roster spot is because he is our only lefty. We definitely need to sign one, if not two lefties for our pen next year. Theilbar and Okert will be gone and Funderburk doesn't inspire any confidence.

[Hunter48]

No

[Karbo]

I'd like to see Headrick get a chance. A lefty with some decent stuff, his health has held him back this year. Now he is off the injured list, so hopefully he gets a few innings in St. Paul, and then who knows?

[DJL44]

He has bounced back from his rough patch but only to mediocre. I think I trust Ronny Henriquez more right now.

[LA Vikes Fan]

I agree that Thielbar has bounced back some, but only to pretty average and wildly inconsistent. He is not a guy that we would trust in a playoff game with a lead; he is more the guy that comes in when you're down three in the seventh. He's not going to help this bullpen much in critical situations.

[D.C Twins]

giggles.......deep breath.....more giggles.......

[Doctor Wu]

In the past couple of months he has looked better, but then a game or two comes along and he reverts to looking washed up. Honestly, I'm not sure how much we can reply on him at this point. I WANT to be a believer, but I don't feel that confident putting him out there for any length of time.