The Elder Statesman: Can Caleb Thielbar Lift a Lagging Twins Bullpen?

Caleb Thielbar's career has been quite a journey up to this point. The Minnesota native was a late draft pack out of South Dakota State, fizzled out of affiliated ball, signed with the Twins out of an independent league, put together a solid multi-year run in the major leagues, fizzled out of affiliated ball again, then took a college coaching position before signing with the Twins again. He has since put together one of the better prolonged stretches we've seen from a Minnesota relief pitcher. From 2020 through 2023, Thielbar posted a 3.21 ERA, 3.16 FIP, and 130 ERA+ over 174 innings, striking out 215 batters.

It's the kind of real-life fairy tale they make movies about, but here in the late chapters, Thielbar has hardly been trending toward a storybook ending. The left-hander has struggled with injuries and lapses in execution over the past couple of seasons, betraying his sturdy reputation of dependability. Last year he was limited to 30 regular-season innings, and he imploded in the ALDS where he surrendered a pair of key homers, including the go-ahead shot by José Abreu in Game 4 that proved decisive. 

His rough ending to 2023 carried spilled over into 2024. Thielbar got hurt in spring training, missed the first two weeks, gave up three runs in his first appearance, and proceeded to struggle throughout the first half of the season. By the end of June he had a 7.00 ERA, with opponents hitting .317/.391/.494 against him. His 19-to-11 K/BB ratio in 18 innings inspired little confidence as Thielbar became part of the problem in a bullpen increasingly lacking for reliable late-inning options.

Since around the midpoint of the season, however, Thielbar has shown real signs of improvement, suggesting the bullpen's elder statesman is not entirely out of gas at age 37. His 4.50 ERA since the start of July is obviously much better than that 7.00 mark he brought in, but it doesn't reflect how much better Thielbar has pitched. In 23 appearances, the lefty has held opponents to a .222/.284/.333 slash line, allowing only two homers with a 28-to-7 K/BB ratio. He has a 2.77 FIP in this time, compared to 5.07 before July.

The Twins really need Thielbar to sustain this caliber of performance and finish strong. It's not just because he's the sole left-hander in the bullpen picture currently – although that does elevate his importance somewhat. The team is just desperately short on trusted high-leverage arms in general, and Thielbar so often in the past has been that. If he can lock in for these final weeks and complement Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Cole Sands and Jorge Alcalá, rather than blending in with the so-so supporting cast in the relief corps, Thielbar could be a big difference-maker. 

There's still time for a storybook ending to his Twins career.