Advanced Data Suggests Big Things for Top Picks in Twins' Draft Class

[Jamie Cameron]

The Twins leaned into a strong crop of college hitters in the 2024 MLB Draft, selecting Kaelen Culpepper, Kyle DeBarge, and Billy Amick with their first three picks. How have they started off in their professional careers? Let's dig into their data from A-ball.

Image courtesy of © Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

It’s hard to believe, but we’re already two months down the road from the 2024 MLB Draft. With the minor-league season in its final stretch, it’s time to take a look at how the Twins' top 2024 draftees are doing. Immediately after the draft, Sean Johnson intimated that the Twins were surprised by how many hitters held up on their draft board. Thankfully for us, the vast majority of them are at Fort Myers, where we have access to robust data on their first few weeks of professional baseball.

For the purposes of this article, I’ve pulled some key metrics for each prospect to allow for some apples-to-apples comparison, and provided a little analysis for each to place their performance in context. It’s worth remembering that these are all still small sample sizes, so take them with a large grain of salt. Numbers were pulled prior to games on Sept. 3.

NOTE: Kaelen Culpepper’s contact, in-zone whiff, chase, and exit velocity only take into account his time at Fort Myers. The rest of his numbers are cumulative across both levels he’s played at in 2024.

Kaelen Culpepper, 1st Round, 21st Overall Selection
Slash line: .241/.326/.405 (.731)
12.4 K%, 9 BB%
82.1% Contact%
0% InZoneWhiff%
33% Chase%
102.6 mph 90th percentile EV
 

The first-round pick got off to as good a start as you could hope for, making short work of Low A in a nine-game sample. Of particular note were his 82% contact rate, and the fact that he didn’t swing and miss at a pitch in the strike zone once while at Fort Myers. Since moving to Cedar Rapids, Culpepper has slowed down, to the tune of just a .578 OPS in his first 12 games. He hit his first home run at High A on Aug. 31, though, so he might be starting to find his groove.

Kyle DeBarge, Comp A, 33rd Overall Selection
Slash line: .195/.311/.293 (.584)
25.6 K%, 13.3 BB%
79.1% Contact%
15.2% InZoneWhiff%
21.2% Chase%
102.7 mph 90th percentile EV
57.4% Ground%
1.8 LaunchAng

For me, Kyle DeBarge will always be known as "the Sonny Gray pick". The 33rd overall selection was conferred upon the Twins as compensation, after Gray turned down the qualifying offer and signed with the Cardinals. The scouting reports on DeBarge coming out of college were of a hitter who controls the strike zone incredibly well, and had some of the best bat-to-ball skills of any college hitter in the class.

DeBarge has posted some impressive numbers relating to his approach at Fort Myers. Through 20 games, he’s walking 13.3% of the time, sporting a contact rate around 80%, and a 15.2% InZoneWhiff%. DeBarge’s average and 90th percentile exit velocity are right around average for the level, too. So why has his raw production (.584) been so poor? DeBarge has run into a major ground-ball problem thus far as a pro. He’s running a 57% ground-ball rate, and an average launch angle of just 1.8 degrees. As soon as he’s able to generate more consistent loft, his production will quickly improve. Nothing to worry about here, yet.

Billy Amick, Round 2, 60th Overall Pick
Slash line: .222/.351/.413 (.763)
19.5 K%, 15.6 BB%
70.1% Contact%
18% InZoneWhiff%
25% Chase%
104 mph 90th percentile EV
55% Ground%

Amick was a player connected with the Twins at 21st overall, which was a little rich for me. They were surely delighted he was still on the board at 60, though. The Twins don’t shy away from high chase rates when drafting (or trading for) hitters. Amick came with the added challenge of a slightly concerning contact rate in college. After a slow start, he turned it around in late August, getting on base plenty thanks to a 15.6 BB%. While the bat-to-ball skills and the chase rate are worth monitoring, Amick’s numbers have improved significantly in the last few weeks. Around 43% of Amick’s batted-balls have been hit 95 mph or harder, close to 10% above average for A ball. The easy power is certainly present.

What are your thoughts on the Twins 2024 draft class thus far? Who has stood out to you? 
Research assistance provided by TruMedia Sports

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[Doctor Wu]

Very early days ... but also very encouraging. Thanks for the article.

[tony&rodney]

All of these guys portend to be decent hitters. This is what the Twins look for in the draft - hitters. What is missing within the Twins organization is players who can play above average defense. I think an athletic player might learn the craft at a position but this requires the Twins to identify a specific spot on the field for their prospects. We see the results from Austin Martin and Royce Lewis of where players are who spend their time in the minors at a position that they can never play at the major league level.

[LambchoP]

I also think that the twins should be developing these young hitters to focus on one or two defensive positions and learn to play them well, rather than trying to have them sporadically play all over the place. They do this, then these guys get to the majors and are a defensive liability and have to learn a position at the major league level. Definitely not ideal ..

[old nurse]

Your top draft picks should be doing well in the low levels. If not the scouting department needs to be looked at

[SaberNerd]

1 hour ago, tony&rodney said:

All of these guys portend to be decent hitters. This is what the Twins look for in the draft - hitters. What is missing within the Twins organization is players who can play above average defense. I think an athletic player might learn the craft at a position but this requires the Twins to identify a specific spot on the field for their prospects. We see the results from Austin Martin and Royce Lewis of where players are who spend their time in the minors at a position that they can never play at the major league level.

I really don't agree with this critique of the Twins.  They are an average defensive teams (currently Statcast's FRV has them +6 runs, which puts them in the cluster of teams ranked 10-22 that are single-digit runs from average). 

For Royce Lewis, if we had settled on a different position earlier in his career that would have been CF, which would mean he would currently be playing LF, and he has been an average 3B for his career.  People didn't think Lewis was going to get this big, and if he hadn't he would probably be our SS (and only hitting 20HR/600PA)

[Brandon]

DeBarge = Sonny Gray and also = Berrios since he was picked close to the same slot and lastly = El DeBarge the 80’s pop singer with same name. So I’d like to see 4 or 5 borderline all star seasons out of Debarge before he hits free agency so he can be comparable in this company.  
 

Is Amick any good defensively?  His power seems legit, does he strike out too much or get on base well?  
 

Im assuming Culpepper will be a .260 hitter with 15-20 HR power and around 10 stolen bases in the majors.  I hope he is good defensively at SS cause at some point we will need another good one to step in for a while.

[old nurse]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

All of these guys portend to be decent hitters. This is what the Twins look for in the draft - hitters. What is missing within the Twins organization is players who can play above average defense. I think an athletic player might learn the craft at a position but this requires the Twins to identify a specific spot on the field for their prospects. We see the results from Austin Martin and Royce Lewis of where players are who spend their time in the minors at a position that they can never play at the major league level.

Perhaps you should look up where the players have played in the monors

[cheeseheadgophfan]

8 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

All of these guys portend to be decent hitters. This is what the Twins look for in the draft - hitters. What is missing within the Twins organization is players who can play above average defense. I think an athletic player might learn the craft at a position but this requires the Twins to identify a specific spot on the field for their prospects. We see the results from Austin Martin and Royce Lewis of where players are who spend their time in the minors at a position that they can never play at the major league level.

The highlights I've seen of Culpepper make him look plenty smooth at SS with a very good arm and lateral movement.....

[Mike Sixel]

7 hours ago, LambchoP said:

I also think that the twins should be developing these young hitters to focus on one or two defensive positions and learn to play them well, rather than trying to have them sporadically play all over the place. They do this, then these guys get to the majors and are a defensive liability and have to learn a position at the major league level. Definitely not ideal ..

They generally have them focus on 1-2 positions....the issue is they don't always pick the right one. Zero people on the planet thought Austin Martin was a SS, and yet.....

As to the OP, I don't know how anyone can be anything other than generally pleased at this point. All three have been fine to good process wise.

[tony&rodney]

7 hours ago, old nurse said:

monors

Couldn't find that.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

Pleasantly surprised to see Billy Amick with a sub 20% strikeout rate and a reasonable 25% chase rate (28% is average in MLB). 70% contact isn't great, but if you're generally making very hard contact and walking like that it will play.

Culpepper has looked very good defensively from what I've seen, with a great arm that will definitely allow him to stick at 3B at the very least. 

[twinstalker]

All three of these guys should crush low A.  Now, the change itself from time off to playing ball again affects a number of players, such as Charlie Condon and JJ Wetherholt. Amick (average) and DeBarge (bad) are not playing well at low A.  Kaelen Culpepper is not playing well at A+ after playing well at low A.  All of them should be deserving to play A+ (two aren't) and doing well there (no one is).

DeBarge (25% K rate at low A) was another disappointing pick by the Twins in the vein of Noah Miller, Keoni Cavaco, and Aaron Sabato, though I'll admit to hating the pick immediately in KDB's case.  The others I had to see play in the minors.  I swear somebody must have said "he's just like" Keaschall without qualifying on competition he played against and the competition he did well against.  Amick doesn't seem too exciting, and I don't see anything in him to provide optimism. 

I seriously wonder how the Twins got Keaschall, given the choices they've made.  Thank goodness there were no decisions to make wrt Jenkins and Lee.

It was a bad draft, both overall and for the Twins.  Culpepper is probably the best hitting hope of the three, but I don't see anything special there.