The Chopping Block--Active Roster

[stringer bell]

With the trade deadline approaching, the Twins do not seem inclined to add salary so it would appear they will have a quiet interlude as far as acquiring new players. However, the club had a rash of injuries prior to the All-Star break and several players are close to returning to the active roster. 

Not long ago, I thought the Twins had more major league players than they had active roster slots, particularly on the position player side, but several guys now on the active roster look like they would be better served by being in the minors playing for the Saints. In addition, a couple of guys who can't be optioned could be shed form the active roster. Here is my list--position players first--then pitchers.

1) Jair Camargo--Camargo was called up shortly before the All-Star break when they Twins appeared to have better health. The suspicion is that one or both of the regular catchers was nicked up and Camargo was added for protection against a short term (non-IL injury). Then the injuries came. While Jeffers and Vázquez continued to take their turns behind the plate, Camargo kept the bench warm. He got into a couple games in the late innings and started a game as the DH (hitless). It is very apparent the major league field staff doesn't trust Camargo as more than a stopgap behind the plate. While he does have good power, I don't think Camargo can make consistent enough contact to be much of an offensive threat. He definitely isn't much help to the major league team and should be optioned as soon as an injured player is taken off the IL. Note: The Twins optioned Camargo today with no corresponding move yet announced.

2) Austin Martin--Since returning from an IL stint after the All-Star break, Martin is hitless. His BA is down to .244, with an OPS of .647. Martin failed to make the play when the Brewers scored a key run in extra innings and overall his defense needs work. He's started two of five games since returning, and with other players returning to health, it will get tougher and tougher to give him opportunities on the field. He does have some versatility and his speed off the bench is an asset.

3) Edouard Julien--Julien returned to the Twins after the All-Star break and has continued to have maddening plate appearances. He's 2-12 (both singles) with three walks, but eight strikeouts. Julien continues to take called third strikes, leading all of MLB despite being sent to the minors for more than a month. His trip to the minors in June hasn't seemed to have helped. 

4) Brooks Lee--Since July 12, Lee is 4-32 (all singles) with four walks and six strikeouts. He's made a couple of questionable decisions in the field while playing second, short and third. Lee started yesterday at shortstop, and I think he's the best defender at short on the active roster. While I still think the future is bright for Lee, he also might benefit from a reset in St. Paul, but Julien and Martin should go first.

5) Kyle Farmer--Farmer has been on the IL since July 12th. At the time of his injury, many on this site were calling for him to be DFA'd, but the subsequent struggles of Lee, Julien and Martin make his return from the IL more palatable. The veteran Farmer seems to have lost a step and hasn't hit for average or power. He's versatile, but this year's poor hitting still makes him a 
DFA candidate.

6) Manuel Margot--The overall view of Margot's season is pretty bad. He's got a -.8 WAR, a .235 BA and a 78 OPS+. Margot was brought in as a platoon corner outfielder who could cover in center when Buxton was absent. He's done well as the right handed option versus left handed starters, but he's 0-25 as a frequently used pinch hitter and his defense has been marginal. Could Austin Martin or someone else do better?

The first four guys can be optioned, making them more likely to be taken off the active roster without being lost for good to the club. I haven't included Alex Kirilloff on this list, although he is certain to be sent to St. Paul for rehab when he's ready for game activity. Depending on how long it takes for AK to be ready for a rehab assignment, he might save his 2024 option. 

Pitching

1) Steven Okert--Yesterday's opener hasn't been very effective for the Twins on the whole. He is definitely more effective against left handed hitters, but lefty specialists don't really exist anymore. Too many base runners and too many inherited runners scoring for Okert to be considered a keeper.

2) Caleb Thielbar--After having his best run of the year prior to the break, Thielbar has yielded runs in both appearances since the All-Star game. His numbers are worse in almost every stat, metric or split and it is getting late in the game to say it is bad luck.

3) David Festa--Nominally the fifth starter, Festa may have won a reprieve by doing quite well against a stacked Phillies lineup yesterday. Good strikeout numbers help, but he has allowed a lot of hard contact.

4) Kody Funderburk--He is on the IL currently, but I don't think he is one of the eight best relief pitchers for the Twins or one of the 13 best pitchers (counting the starters). "Fundy" is funky and when he can get ahead in counts, he can be very effective and make hitters look pretty silly. However, when the hitters get ahead, he doesn't have enough stuff to win those battles. Given the lack of depth and performance of Twins' left handed pitchers, Funderburk probably will keep getting chances, but I can't see him on a playoff roster.

I also have to mention Cole Sands. I have been skeptical of his stuff and ability, but he has shown himself to be pretty good as a multi-purpose bullpen arm. The increased velocity without loss of command has made him a major leaguer IMHO and he is currently not in jeopardy of being sent to the minors.

 

 

                                                                                 

 

 

 

[Linus]

I think you are spot on. Martin and Julien in particular are contributing next to nothing and should be optioned to see if they can gain some confidence with the bat.  I predicted some strong regression for Julien as his babip last year was not sustainable and his unique approach was certainly going to be adjusted to but the guy has just cratered. I would give Lee a little more run but he has to get a few hits somewhere along the line. I think the chances of Farmer or Margot getting cut are almost nil. 

[Craig Arko]

Right now I’d guess:

Camargo -> Lewis

Julien -> Miranda

Martin -> Correa

Farmer may not come back and AK -> 60 day.

[Mike Sixel]

I think that the jump from AAA to the majors is bigger than ever (from what Law and Fangraphs and MLBTR say), so I think they'll give Lee more time (plus, he's likely the best SS until CC comes back).

I think Julien goes back down as Craig says just above this post.

Martin goes down when CC comes back, unless Lee keeps not hitting (as everyone now thinks Lee is a legit MLB player, and Martin is a utility guy).

Festa is clearly starter 5 unless he blows up, in which case I'm not shocked by any of Matthews, Varland, Boushley getting a spot start. 

No idea on the bullpen, but I'd sure like one lefty I trusted....

[DJL44]

They might be better off letting Brooks Lee play in the big leagues. He will develop faster facing major league pitching. He hasn't done anything in the last two weeks that should make them regret their decision.

[Dman]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

They might be better off letting Brooks Lee play in the big leagues. He will develop faster facing major league pitching. He hasn't done anything in the last two weeks that should make them regret their decision.

I agree Lee only has a 15% K rate and he is walking at 7% so he is not having issues with contact at the MLB level.  Just needs to refine getting some line drives to drop and or ground balls to roll through.  I'd give him more time.

[ashbury]

33 minutes ago, Dman said:

I agree Lee only has a 15% K rate and he is walking at 7% so he is not having issues with contact at the MLB level.

Have you seen some of that contact?  Just going from memory, those weak grounders don't look like the kind of drives that earn the average ballplayer a BABIP around .300.  Possibly my memory is selective and/or my sample is skewed.

[Dman]

2 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Have you seen some of that contact?  Just going from memory, those weak grounders don't look like the kind of drives that earn the average ballplayer a BABIP around .300.  Possibly my memory is selective and/or my sample is skewed.

No I was frustrated with those grounders as well, but he was hitting the ball in the air again recently.  All I am saying is it takes time to adjust and contacting the ball is the most important thing.  If you can't connect with the ball you can't get a hit. Hopefully he finds more barrels. 

[Doctor Gast]

IMO when you get rid of Margot, you solve your Martin problem. A rookie who only bats against the league's top RHPs, almost all of our RHH veterans have problems with them, the main difference is they get a lot of their ABs against much easier LHPs & Martin doesn't. Don't look only at stats. When we get rid of Margot, Martin will get all of Margot's LHPs ABs & playing time. Martin has done everything he can learn as far as hitting at AAA. Most teams like to break in their rookie with light schedules not set them up to fail. Martin will not fail, he will eventually come around & impact this team when they start treating him like a rookie & give him steadier playing time.

I remember when veteran Castro started to play for us, fans greatly criticized his defense, he was never sent down & now they praise him. Due to oversight, Martin has only begun his OF journey & he has made some spectacular plays. Castro has honed his defense skills last year by only playing at the MLB level so can Martin. But if they do nothing with Margot, Martin is doomed to AAA w/o him impacting the team.

[strumdatjag]

19 hours ago, stringer bell said:

With the trade deadline approaching, the Twins do not seem inclined to add salary so it would appear they will have a quiet interlude as far as acquiring new players. However, the club had a rash of injuries prior to the All-Star break and several players are close to returning to the active roster. 

Not long ago, I thought the Twins had more major league players than they had active roster slots, particularly on the position player side, but several guys now on the active roster look like they would be better served by being in the minors playing for the Saints. In addition, a couple of guys who can't be optioned could be shed form the active roster. Here is my list--position players first--then pitchers.

1) Jair Camargo--Camargo was called up shortly before the All-Star break when they Twins appeared to have better health. The suspicion is that one or both of the regular catchers was nicked up and Camargo was added for protection against a short term (non-IL injury). Then the injuries came. While Jeffers and Vázquez continued to take their turns behind the plate, Camargo kept the bench warm. He got into a couple games in the late innings and started a game as the DH (hitless). It is very apparent the major league field staff doesn't trust Camargo as more than a stopgap behind the plate. While he does have good power, I don't think Camargo can make consistent enough contact to be much of an offensive threat. He definitely isn't much help to the major league team and should be optioned as soon as an injured player is taken off the IL. Note: The Twins optioned Camargo today with no corresponding move yet announced.

2) Austin Martin--Since returning from an IL stint after the All-Star break, Martin is hitless. His BA is down to .244, with an OPS of .647. Martin failed to make the play when the Brewers scored a key run in extra innings and overall his defense needs work. He's started two of five games since returning, and with other players returning to health, it will get tougher and tougher to give him opportunities on the field. He does have some versatility and his speed off the bench is an asset.

3) Edouard Julien--Julien returned to the Twins after the All-Star break and has continued to have maddening plate appearances. He's 2-12 (both singles) with three walks, but eight strikeouts. Julien continues to take called third strikes, leading all of MLB despite being sent to the minors for more than a month. His trip to the minors in June hasn't seemed to have helped. 

4) Brooks Lee--Since July 12, Lee is 4-32 (all singles) with four walks and six strikeouts. He's made a couple of questionable decisions in the field while playing second, short and third. Lee started yesterday at shortstop, and I think he's the best defender at short on the active roster. While I still think the future is bright for Lee, he also might benefit from a reset in St. Paul, but Julien and Martin should go first.

5) Kyle Farmer--Farmer has been on the IL since July 12th. At the time of his injury, many on this site were calling for him to be DFA'd, but the subsequent struggles of Lee, Julien and Martin make his return from the IL more palatable. The veteran Farmer seems to have lost a step and hasn't hit for average or power. He's versatile, but this year's poor hitting still makes him a 
DFA candidate.

6) Manuel Margot--The overall view of Margot's season is pretty bad. He's got a -.8 WAR, a .235 BA and a 78 OPS+. Margot was brought in as a platoon corner outfielder who could cover in center when Buxton was absent. He's done well as the right handed option versus left handed starters, but he's 0-25 as a frequently used pinch hitter and his defense has been marginal. Could Austin Martin or someone else do better?

The first four guys can be optioned, making them more likely to be taken off the active roster without being lost for good to the club. I haven't included Alex Kirilloff on this list, although he is certain to be sent to St. Paul for rehab when he's ready for game activity. Depending on how long it takes for AK to be ready for a rehab assignment, he might save his 2024 option. 

Pitching

1) Steven Okert--Yesterday's opener hasn't been very effective for the Twins on the whole. He is definitely more effective against left handed hitters, but lefty specialists don't really exist anymore. Too many base runners and too many inherited runners scoring for Okert to be considered a keeper.

2) Caleb Thielbar--After having his best run of the year prior to the break, Thielbar has yielded runs in both appearances since the All-Star game. His numbers are worse in almost every stat, metric or split and it is getting late in the game to say it is bad luck.

3) David Festa--Nominally the fifth starter, Festa may have won a reprieve by doing quite well against a stacked Phillies lineup yesterday. Good strikeout numbers help, but he has allowed a lot of hard contact.

4) Kody Funderburk--He is on the IL currently, but I don't think he is one of the eight best relief pitchers for the Twins or one of the 13 best pitchers (counting the starters). "Fundy" is funky and when he can get ahead in counts, he can be very effective and make hitters look pretty silly. However, when the hitters get ahead, he doesn't have enough stuff to win those battles. Given the lack of depth and performance of Twins' left handed pitchers, Funderburk probably will keep getting chances, but I can't see him on a playoff roster.

I also have to mention Cole Sands. I have been skeptical of his stuff and ability, but he has shown himself to be pretty good as a multi-purpose bullpen arm. The increased velocity without loss of command has made him a major leaguer IMHO and he is currently not in jeopardy of being sent to the minors.

 

 

                                                                                 

 

 

 

If the Twins dump Funderburk, Thielbar and Okert, that completely obliterates the left-handed pitching.   That is not a viable option.  Even if the Twins pick up a lefty starter at the deadline, they need an option or two in the pen.