Byron Buxton Joins an Elite Group in Twins History

[Ted Schwerzler]

When the Minnesota Twins took Byron Buxton with their first overall pick of the 2012 Major League Baseball draft, they envisioned a player making a profound impact on their franchise. The starts and stops have been frequent, but he has certainly made that impact. His latest accomplishment puts him in rarefied air.

 

Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

Byron Buxton made his debut with the Minnesota Twins during the 2015 regular season. He won a Gold Glove two years later, and earned his first MVP votes, despite posting just a 93 OPS+. During 2020, he improved on his MVP positioning, and in 2022, he appeared in his first All-Star Game.

The storyline for Buxton, who was signed to a seven-year, $100-million extension by Minnesota prior to the 2022 season, has always been about injuries. Fluky as it may be, his inability to stay on the field has been the main thing that has taken away from his production. A different hitter now, looking for more power than ever, he remains an elite talent in the outfield.

The skillset has combined for 20.1 fWAR, making him just the 28th hitter in franchise history (including the Washington Senators) to reach that mark. Justin Morneau came up just shy, at 19.9 fWAR, and Roy Smalley’s 20.9 fWAR is the next name Buxton could pass on the list. Removing those that did their damage for the Senators would push Buxton all the way up to 13th in team history.

It's unfortunate that we have seen Buxton’s production sapped by an inability to stay on the field, and we have lost out on some of the greatest years of his prime to various ailments. At this point, the Georgia native understands the trajectory of his career will forever be different, as he deals with chronic knee pain. Still, the hope is that he’ll be able to adapt and settle into a productive future.

How far Buxton can climb remains to be seen. Even while struggling through a new process at the plate, and having missed time early this season, he has already played nearly 60 games. He has surpassed the production he put up in 85 games last season, and generating the 3.5 fWAR from 2022 is within reach.

With four more seasons on his contract, something between Brian Dozier’s 23.8 fWAR and Chuck Knoblauch’s 33.6 fWAR seems possible. Bob Allison, of Senators fame, put up 35.3 fWAR for the Twins and is revered as one of the best hitters in franchise history. Buxton could get there with a combination of rejuvenate offense and sustained excellence on defense, but to do so, his bat would need to continue to play into his mid-30s.

It’s odd to think that Buxton has now been in the big leagues for 10 seasons, and he has been in the system for nearly half of his life. That’s the reality, though, and Twins fans have seen him grow from the stringy high schooler into the family man with a smile always willing to go out and give the franchise his best.

The rest of this story remains unwritten, but to this point, we’ve seen highs and lows that have produced one of the greatest careers in franchise history. First-round picks don’t always work out that way, and first overall picks aren’t guaranteed to do so, either. Buxton, though, has remained determined to keep showing up and accruing value.

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[Karbo]

Great to see him bounce back some after the terrible year he had in 2023.

[Doctor Gast]

It's great to see Buck in CF. Everything else is icing. I'm waiting for that Buck Truck to make a lot more deliveries before his time is up.

[bean5302]

Buxton's probably a 3 WAR player going forward. He's actually been remarkably healthy (for him) so far this year. I'd expect Buxton's career to finish up around 30 WAR.

His Full NTC drops off after 2026 with a 5 team trade list at that point. I don't think Buxton will finish his contract with the Twins as I think the Twins will be looking to trade him as soon as they can to get some relief from the ill-fated extension with the $15MM baseline salary.

That said, nobody can deny he's been an hugely successful player in MLB with a career very few ever have.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

That said, nobody can deny he's been an hugely successful player in MLB with a career very few ever have.

Agreed.  Unfortunately Byron Buxton has been branded with the shoulda, woulda, coulda of ridiculous expectations, so nothing he does will likely live up to the hype.  In a vacuum, it's a pretty good career, but everyone will always wonder what might have been if he had stayed completely healthy. 

[Jim wyllie]

Buxton is a solid player he can be very good when healthy, but I but no stock in war, fair and most sabermetrics,  as they r not as accurate as most think, they r overvalued and the value of war in particular is as inexact a science as it comes as each teams payroll is different and changes every year as to win loss records making it hard to put value on when 2 teams can win 100 games and be at opposite ends of the payroll spectrum.   Heck how are metrics accurate when it's thought a player with a batting average in the 240s or 250s is and all star.

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Agreed.  Unfortunately Byron Buxton has been branded with the shoulda, woulda, coulda of ridiculous expectations, so nothing he does will likely live up to the hype.  In a vacuum, it's a pretty good career, but everyone will always wonder what might have been if he had stayed completely healthy. 

It's a heck of a career. Less than 600 players out of 20,000 in MLB history have accumulated 30 career WAR. Even where he's at right now is top 5% in history.

[Markdumont25]

Despite all the injuries, setbacks, and (arguably) unfulfilled expectations, I love having Buxton on our team. Great man and player.

[SwainZag]

"Hiding" Buxton at 6 or 7 in the order might just work out?

Very small sample size but.....in the las 16 games, Buck has hit .328/.365/.586 with 4 doubles, a triple, 3 HR and 11 RBI. He's also played every game in Center.  he definitely looks more confident at the plate. 

[Whitey333]

It's sad what happened to Buck with all the injuries.  It's just as sad to piece together the many fragmented seasons and declare him one of the best Twins ever.  That does a great disservice to the many Twins players throughout the years that actually played full seasons.  It's also sad that we will never know if he would be a career great player without the injuries.  

[LambchoP]

If he can continue to hit like he has this year then the 15 million per year will be well worth it. Look at this last off-season. We have glove first defensive specialist center fielders getting 10 million per year...of course it remains to be seen how often Buck can stay on the field as he ages...