The Twins Have Created Themselves a Platoon Disadvantage

[NotAboutWinning]

Platooning to this extent would be a winning strategy if both sides of the platoon had equally good hitters. Margot, Santana, Farmer and Vazquez are hitting so poorly that they are giving away more in OPS than is being gained by the platoon.

[Linus]

Actually the strong side of the platoons have stunk. Larnach is showing signs of life but Julien Kiriloff and  Wallner have stunk and they get 75% of the at bats so the problem isn’t limited to Farmer Margot and Santana. 

[ashbury]

On 5/31/2024 at 11:03 AM, Riverbrian said:

unless she is lucky enough to get a guy like Ashbury. 

[DocBauer]

7 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

 

2. The part that I bolded of your quote is important. Just because a lefty hitter isn't as good against left handed pitchers... doesn't mean that the numbers are horrendous.

Using Kepler for example. Using On Base Percentage for easy down and dirty math. 

Career OBP vs RH - .329

Career OBP vs LH - .293

Over 100 AB's... Kepler reaches base 4 less times. One single AB... Kepler goes from a .33% chance of reaching base to a 29% chance of reaching base. We are rostering lesser players to just improve your odds potentially very very little. And that potential little improvement of odds are gone... vanished... flipped in the other direction every single time Farmer or Margot types have to face right handers and they will face more right handers than left handers. Because there are more Right handers and injuries are going to force the necessity of facing them. 

Just play the odds against the 75%. If you want to play the odds. 

Just wanted to add a little to this example, and add a title more context to what I had written earlier.

And while it's not my intention to pick on someone, I'm going to use Margot as an example because he works, and he's been part of the conversation.

Margot's career quad slash is as follows;

vs RHP .241/ .292/ .364/ .656

vs LHP .280/ .340/ .417/ .756

In 2024, league wide the average OPS is around .690-.695 last I heard. Based on that, the "career" Margot is more than acceptable with those splits as a high quality CF...which he was...with a little pop and some speed on the bases, and some double digit SB mixed in. That's not a star player. But it's a solid, all around player you can play in the field on a daily basis, lower in the order against RHP, higher in the order against LHP.

The problem, in this example, is if player X...Margot in this example still...suddenly can't play even really good defense, has little power, and doesn't run particularly well any longer, and is ABYSMAL against same side pitching, and only about league average as a batter/OPS guy, what do you have? Well, that's a ballplayer, taking up a roster spot, who's barely average as a hitter...used roughly 25% of the time... with no discernable qualities to make any sort of difference for your team.

Again, the issue ISN'T having a guy who's better on the short side of a platoon type of situation. It's having a guy who you just don't even want out on the field or in the lineup 75% of the time. And THAT'S where the FO idea of any platoon situation is a big mistake.

IF Margot was the same player he was a couple years ago, IF Farmer was the same hitter he was in 2023, we probably aren't having this conversation. Vazquez is a unique situation due to experience, and his abilities as a catcher. Is this the fault of the FO? Maybe. We still have the budget restraints imposed to examine. But they bet on a pair of veterans and the gamble has come up snake eyes. Here's hoping they learn from this mistake. 

The only thing I might disagree with you, Brian, is a comment you made about the FO being reticent to make changes this late. And forgive me, I can't recall if it was in this OP, or the OP concerning who goes when Lewis comes back. Our FO is more than a bit stubborn, probably born from the disappointing and MASH version of the team that ended 2022. I get it. But they also saw what an influx of talent could bring to the team last season. I'd like to think they are smart enough, flexible enough, confidant enough to just realize the status quo is holding the lineup down and they WILL make changes.

[Riverbrian]

9 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

But they also saw what an influx of talent could bring to the team last season. I'd like to think they are smart enough, flexible enough, confidant enough to just realize the status quo is holding the lineup down and they WILL make changes.

Good Post Doc.

Although... In the making of last years product. No Vets were harmed in the production. 😁

[IndianaTwin]

On 6/1/2024 at 11:53 AM, Riverbrian said:

I think we agree that the off-season was when the boat got pushed into the river and I think they were hell bent on keeping Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner away from left handed pitching and this was what ended up being the river current. They didn't have any money to spend so... strip mining the best parts off of players was probably the strategy all along.  

...(snipped for brevity)..

Just a guess of course but I think I'm close to right. 

I think the key moment was when they picked up Farmer's option. I think that signified the Platoon heavy approach and the off-season was going to be how do they get there without money. 

 

I'll offer slight nuances, but I think we're pretty close to agreement. 

I'm fine with not counting Julien as one of the every day players. He was the borderline guy for me.

I didn't list Polanco, for two reasons. The primary reason is that I forgot him. But the secondary one is that I always sensed him as more likely to be traded than Kepler, which is why he was easy to forget. Differences being: a) Kepler is better defensively; b) he had done so well in the second half; and c) they were at least closer to have a replacement for Polanco with Julien than they were with Kepler. Replacing Kepler meant they had to have two of Wallner, Larnach and Kirilloff succeed, rather than just one, since they were also counting on one of these to be a key player in the LF mix. 

I agree that a key moment was picking up Farmer's option (or more accurately, tendering him, right?). Even more than signifying a platoon-heavy approach, however, I think it signified that they were going to again prioritize position flexibility and depth and that they were going to use veterans to do that.

(That last sentence is my thesis. The rest of this is my interpretation on it played out. Quoting you, it's just a guess of course but I think I'm close to right. The nice thing is that we're close enough to each other that we can both be right. 😀)

 

I think the Farmer tendering also sealed the deal on Polanco being the one traded. In a flexibility model, Farmer brings more to the Julien pairing than Polanco does, since Farmer can also be the backup at SS and 3B. In theory, Polanco can back up at SS, but they didn't use him there at all last year. And while many have focused on the amount they did spend on Farmer, it's worth noting that he's several million less than Polanco. 

As I think about their commitment to depth and flexibility, I've begun to think of the position players as I do the starters. A year ago, we saw the wisdom in pursuing enough bodies to have the Ober start in AAA, assuming someone would get hurt. This year, that was the thought process on getting DeSclafini. Regretfully, he got hurt immediately and No. 6 (Varland) became No. 5. Turns out he didn't pitch well and No. 7 (SWR) became No. 5. I assume they were talking with other options, but payroll limitations and availability left them settling with figuring out a way to get DeSclafini.

I think they are doing the same thing offensively, targeting to have some number of guys that they would see as potential big leaguers on Day 1, knowing there will be injuries. I think the number is somewhere around 16. So with that in mind, after tendering Farmer...

• Catchers: Vazquez and Jeffers.
• 2B/SS/3B: Farmer, Polanco, Julien, Correa, Lewis, Miranda.
• 1B: Kirilloff
• CF: Buxton
• LF/RF: Kepler, Wallner, Larnach.
• Util: Castro, Gordon.  

Having 16 typically has you being able to cover injuries, but you have to have some optionable guys in case everyone is healthy. This list has them at 15. However, as noted above, with the Farmer tendering, Polanco is repetition. Similarly, Gordon is essentially repetition in a Castro-like role. With him having been a non-factor last year, I think that they viewed him as No. 16, an insurance clause, preferring to trade him for some other asset, but not wanting to do so early.

However, the Nos. 14-16 guys have to have options, in case the top 13 are healthy. Gordon doesn't have an option, so once other pieces are in place (and seemingly healthy), he's expendable for essentially any asset available.

Thus a trade that doesn't happen until Feb. 11. What that does is slide Martin into the No. 16. For all practical purposes, he's Gordon WITH an option.

That gives us:

• Catchers: Vazquez and Jeffers.
• 2B/SS/3B: Farmer, Julien, Correa, Lewis, Miranda.
• 1B: Kirilloff
• CF: Buxton
• LF/RF: Kepler, Wallner, Larnach.
• Util: Castro, Martin (16).  

On paper (or on screen), that's a full roster with Martin as the No. 14, but that means having Wallner, Larnach, Kirilloff and Miranda all on the roster. With the time Miranda missed last year and the hiccups Larnach and Kirilloff had a year ago, I don't think they want to allocate that much roster space to rookies. It also means that they have to count on people like Lee (not on the 40-man), Severino and Rodriguez as high as No. 15, a spot that is GOING to get used before they want to use any of those three.

(Aside: I get that there are those on TD who say, "Let the kids play." I'm more, "Let the kids play their way in." Opportunities will arise, even if they aren't as fast as some hope. My concern is what happens when you are "letting the kids play" and injuries happen. In my mind, a contender can't go into the season with the inexperience of Martin and Severino at Nos. 14 and 15. You can go into the season with experience at the level of Miranda and Larnach, each of whom has had some level of success and a decent upside, in the Nos. 14 and 15 spots.

So to get Martin to No. 16, Miranda to No. 15 and Larnach to No. 14 (my sense of how they saw them), you need two more bodies. When you look at the gaps and handedness, the logical places to add are a) someone to play first, at least sharing the role with Kirilloff and potentially playing more; and b) another option in CF, given Buxton's injury history. With the handedness of this collection, they needed to be able to hit righty, with being a switch hitter a bonus.  

I assume they were talking to guys like Michael A. Taylor throughout the winter, but they have also demonstrated a commitment to stay below the value they have put on a player. Taylor was never willing to take that amount. Eventually they had to settle for the trade that brought in Margot. Similarly, I assume they were talking to other 1B options, but Santana was the best they felt they could afford.

 

It's not a perfect roster, but I think it's a solid one given the parameters they were working. I'll keep taking my chances with it. 

[Riverbrian]

8 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

Util: Castillo

Willi Castro's Mom is going to be mad at you. 

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Willi Castro's Mom is going to be mad at you. 

Yikes. Not sure where I came up with that.

Corrected.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

I'll offer slight nuances, but I think we're pretty close to agreement. 

I'm fine with not counting Julien as one of the every day players. He was the borderline guy for me.

I didn't list Polanco, for two reasons. The primary reason is that I forgot him. But the secondary one is that I always sensed him as more likely to be traded than Kepler, which is why he was easy to forget. Differences being: a) Kepler is better defensively; b) he had done so well in the second half; and c) they were at least closer to have a replacement for Polanco with Julien than they were with Kepler. Replacing Kepler meant they had to have two of Wallner, Larnach and Kirilloff succeed, rather than just one, since they were also counting on one of these to be a key player in the LF mix. 

I agree that a key moment was picking up Farmer's option (or more accurately, tendering him, right?). Even more than signifying a platoon-heavy approach, however, I think it signified that they were going to again prioritize position flexibility and depth and that they were going to use veterans to do that.

(That last sentence is my thesis. The rest of this is my interpretation on it played out. Quoting you, it's just a guess of course but I think I'm close to right. The nice thing is that we're close enough to each other that we can both be right. 😀)

 

I think the Farmer tendering also sealed the deal on Polanco being the one traded. In a flexibility model, Farmer brings more to the Julien pairing than Polanco does, since Farmer can also be the backup at SS and 3B. In theory, Polanco can back up at SS, but they didn't use him there at all last year. And while many have focused on the amount they did spend on Farmer, it's worth noting that he's several million less than Polanco. 

As I think about their commitment to depth and flexibility, I've begun to think of the position players as I do the starters. A year ago, we saw the wisdom in pursuing enough bodies to have the Ober start in AAA, assuming someone would get hurt. This year, that was the thought process on getting DeSclafini. Regretfully, he got hurt immediately and No. 6 (Varland) became No. 5. Turns out he didn't pitch well and No. 7 (SWR) became No. 5. I assume they were talking with other options, but payroll limitations and availability left them settling with figuring out a way to get DeSclafini.

I think they are doing the same thing offensively, targeting to have some number of guys that they would see as potential big leaguers on Day 1, knowing there will be injuries. I think the number is somewhere around 16. So with that in mind, after tendering Farmer...

• Catchers: Vazquez and Jeffers.
• 2B/SS/3B: Farmer, Polanco, Julien, Correa, Lewis, Miranda.
• 1B: Kirilloff
• CF: Buxton
• LF/RF: Kepler, Wallner, Larnach.
• Util: Castro, Gordon.  

Having 16 typically has you being able to cover injuries, but you have to have some optionable guys in case everyone is healthy. This list has them at 15. However, as noted above, with the Farmer tendering, Polanco is repetition. Similarly, Gordon is essentially repetition in a Castro-like role. With him having been a non-factor last year, I think that they viewed him as No. 16, an insurance clause, preferring to trade him for some other asset, but not wanting to do so early.

However, the Nos. 14-16 guys have to have options, in case the top 13 are healthy. Gordon doesn't have an option, so once other pieces are in place (and seemingly healthy), he's expendable for essentially any asset available.

Thus a trade that doesn't happen until Feb. 11. What that does is slide Martin into the No. 16. For all practical purposes, he's Gordon WITH an option.

That gives us:

• Catchers: Vazquez and Jeffers.
• 2B/SS/3B: Farmer, Julien, Correa, Lewis, Miranda.
• 1B: Kirilloff
• CF: Buxton
• LF/RF: Kepler, Wallner, Larnach.
• Util: Castro, Martin (16).  

On paper (or on screen), that's a full roster with Martin as the No. 14, but that means having Wallner, Larnach, Kirilloff and Miranda all on the roster. With the time Miranda missed last year and the hiccups Larnach and Kirilloff had a year ago, I don't think they want to allocate that much roster space to rookies. It also means that they have to count on people like Lee (not on the 40-man), Severino and Rodriguez as high as No. 15, a spot that is GOING to get used before they want to use any of those three.

(Aside: I get that there are those on TD who say, "Let the kids play." I'm more, "Let the kids play their way in." Opportunities will arise, even if they aren't as fast as some hope. My concern is what happens when you are "letting the kids play" and injuries happen. In my mind, a contender can't go into the season with the inexperience of Martin and Severino at Nos. 14 and 15. You can go into the season with experience at the level of Miranda and Larnach, each of whom has had some level of success and a decent upside, in the Nos. 14 and 15 spots.

So to get Martin to No. 16, Miranda to No. 15 and Larnach to No. 14 (my sense of how they saw them), you need two more bodies. When you look at the gaps and handedness, the logical places to add are a) someone to play first, at least sharing the role with Kirilloff and potentially playing more; and b) another option in CF, given Buxton's injury history. With the handedness of this collection, they needed to be able to hit righty, with being a switch hitter a bonus.  

I assume they were talking to guys like Michael A. Taylor throughout the winter, but they have also demonstrated a commitment to stay below the value they have put on a player. Taylor was never willing to take that amount. Eventually they had to settle for the trade that brought in Margot. Similarly, I assume they were talking to other 1B options, but Santana was the best they felt they could afford.

 

It's not a perfect roster, but I think it's a solid one given the parameters they were working. I'll keep taking my chances with it. 

Can't play in to the lineup if a team sticks with guys that are among the worst hitters in baseball. How does one get an opportunity, if not given one? 

[IndianaTwin]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Can't play in to the lineup if a team sticks with guys that are among the worst hitters in baseball. How does one get an opportunity, if not given one? 

Wallner, Miranda, Martin, Larnach and Kirilloff have all gotten one. 

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

Wallner, Miranda, Martin, Larnach and Kirilloff have all gotten one. 

No more so than Farmer, Margot, and Santana. 

I do agree Wallner needed to go away. And I've never had much hope for Martin.

But opportunity should work both ways.

[Mike Sixel]

3 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

Wallner, Miranda, Martin, Larnach and Kirilloff have all gotten one. 

Fair.