Is It Time for the Twins to Shuffle the Coaching Staff?

[wabene]

10 hours ago, FilthyMogwai said:

lol, is this an honest-to-God question? Followed by a TLDR article? 

If you don't have time for the article, thanks for taking the time to contribute in the comments! 🙂

[Riverbrian]

32 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

"Total System Failure." I just feel like that's an awfully low bar to clear if we're talking about staying employed. 

I think the development is questionable, particularly when it comes to arms. They've had some pretty bad whiffs at the top of the draft. They've certainly had their share of players on the active roster who hit FA (or worse get DFA'd) and draw little to no interest. Value is relative, but there are certainly players on the current 26 man who wouldn't yield a return worth talking about. None of the above are blips over an 8 year period either. 

Sure, the expectation isn't 90 wins year over year. That's unrealistic. I'm asking whether this team is actually correcting (are they capable of doing so) or if they're content to stay their own path that's leading them off the road. You could've convinced me that 2021 was a crazy hop, but 2022 happened, then they played middling baseball through most of 2023 until a division where every other team threw in the towel and the softest schedule in baseball saved their a****, now it's deja vu to start this season. 

Ahh... I thought it stood for Tofu Stir Fry. We had a Mongolian restaurant on the north end of town close down and Tofu Stir Fry was the reason why. 

All teams have bad whiffs, All teams have unyieldable talent. Unyieldable probably isn't a word but it should be. 

Here's the thing.

I can't convince Chia Pet on how things should be done and Chia Pet can't convince Chief and Chief can't convince you and you can't convince me.

Every single discussion point on Twinsdaily lacks consensus. Different viewpoints coming from different directions. If we can't all agree on the obvious path... what is the obvious path?  What chance does any front office have making friends. If they do what I think... Chia Pet isn't happy with them. If they do what Chia Pet thinks... I'm not happy. 

I've just decided not to add to that impossible tangled pile. I'd rather argue with Chia Pet. It's much simpler that way. 

[USAFChief]

13 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Ahh... I thought it stood for Tofu Stir Fry. We had a Mongolian restaurant on the north end of town close down and Tofu Stir Fry was the reason why. 

All teams have bad whiffs, All teams have unyieldable talent. Unyieldable probably isn't a word but it should be. 

Here's the thing.

I can't convince Chia Pet on how things should be done and Chia Pet can't convince Chief and Chief can't convince you and you can't convince me.

Every single discussion point on Twinsdaily lacks consensus. Different viewpoints coming from different directions. If we can't all agree on the obvious path... what is the obvious path?  What chance does any front office have making friends. If they do what I think... Chia Pet isn't happy with them. If they do what Chia Pet thinks... I'm not happy. 

I've just decided not to add to that impossible tangled pile. I'd rather argue with Chia Pet. It's much simpler that way. 

I think we can all agree tofu should be illegal with hefty fines and probably some jail time.

[Riverbrian]

Just now, USAFChief said:

I think we can all agree tofu should be illegal with hefty fines and probably some jail time.

Hefty... Even for a TSF of TSF. 

Tea Spoon Full of Tofu Stir Fry

[Seth Stohs]

#TeamProcess

If you believe in your process, you don't think changing personnel after 17 bad games. Everyone wanted Popkins fired through about July last season, and then over the final 2-3 months, he got a lot of credit. Now 17 games later, he (and/or Hernandez, and/or Shomon). 

Royce has been out since Day 1. 
Julien's been Julien. 
Wallner started with a sophomore slump. That's not unusual. 
Kepler's been hurt pretty much since Day 1. 
Now Correa, who started out very well, is hurt. 
Jeffers is doing well. Kirilloff's been fine. 
They've had very little time with Santana. 
Castro turned back into Castro. 
Polanco is gone. 

[Eris]

Somehow there is a disconnect between the Twins results and the statistical data. The statistical data is that runs scored is strongly correlated with ISO (R^2 is close to 0.80) and that strike outs don’t matter (R^2 is small).  This reflects the Twins organization approach. We want power and K’s don’t matter. The last few years the Twins were close to the top in terms of runs scored as a result of HRs while leading the league in Ks.
 

Yet for the Twins, they have a losing record when striking out more than 10x per game. This was discussed on the Twins radio pregame show last year. 

[Woof Bronzer]

13 minutes ago, Eris said:

Somehow there is a disconnect between the Twins results and the statistical data. The statistical data is that runs scored is strongly correlated with ISO (R^2 is close to 0.80) and that strike outs don’t matter (R^2 is small).  This reflects the Twins organization approach. We want power and K’s don’t matter. The last few years the Twins were close to the top in terms of runs scored as a result of HRs while leading the league in Ks.
 

Yet for the Twins, they have a losing record when striking out more than 10x per game. This was discussed on the Twins radio pregame show last year. 

It's because strikeouts obviously do matter.  This is the problem, their entire philosophy relies on factually untrue things.  If strikeouts didn't matter the Twins would fill out their entire staff with cheap Carlos Silvas, yet their offensive philosophy pretends otherwise.  

Baseball strategy is not simply about selecting one "right" formula and stubbornly sticking to it regardless of results.  You might need a different strategy given the score, the inning, how the game plays out, the opponent, the point in the season, the pitcher, the hitter, the weather, health, who's on the bench/in the pen, whatever.  

[nicksaviking]

12 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

#TeamProcess

If you believe in your process, you don't think changing personnel after 17 bad games. Everyone wanted Popkins fired through about July last season, and then over the final 2-3 months, he got a lot of credit. Now 17 games later, he (and/or Hernandez, and/or Shomon). 

Royce has been out since Day 1. 
Julien's been Julien. 
Wallner started with a sophomore slump. That's not unusual. 
Kepler's been hurt pretty much since Day 1. 
Now Correa, who started out very well, is hurt. 
Jeffers is doing well. Kirilloff's been fine. 
They've had very little time with Santana. 
Castro turned back into Castro. 
Polanco is gone. 

It's not the personnel, it's all the strikeouts and stranding runners in scoring position. Even the guys who don't strike out too much are still striking out at career highs.

They were bad for four months last year, were good for two months last year and now are bad the first month this year. If there's an outlier, it's the two good months. And those last two months had nothing to do with Popkins and everything to do with finally swapping out Gallo, Vazquez and Farmer for Wallner, Jeffers and Julien full time. But even while they played better in those two months, they were STILL striking out and stranding runners at an unacceptable pace.

I'm not blaming Popkins, but only because I'm not sure who's idea it has been to get into so many 0-2 counts. It could be Baldelli, it could be Falvey, maybe TC the Bear. Whoever it is needs to reverse course and say, 'this isn't working' and go back to trying to hit like normal teams, even if it means taking fewer pitches.

[Florida Flash]

I have not idea but am willing to throw in my 2 cents. IMO everyone is swinging for the fences. (Kep, Bux, etc) Home Runs = $$$$. a 210 hitter with 25 HR's makes a lot more money than a 300 hitter with 6 HRs. (remember Sano) Along with that, everyone is now pounding the weights, trying to get stronger, thus more HR's and of course way more injuries. I dont recall the Twins os 60's-80's hurt all thetime like now. I was told by a hockey coach years ago to take it easy on the weights and go more for flexibility because of less likelyhood of injuries. But like I said, I dunno.

[DJL44]

On 4/18/2024 at 9:26 AM, chpettit19 said:

These are FO philosophies. If the goal is to change the overall approach of the team you have to start at the top with the guys dictating the approach. A FO who believes in the current approach isn't going to hire people who preach a different approach.

This is correct. Plus, you would need to assess whether the coaches and players can adjust to a new philosophy if the front office decides to make a change in philosophy. Some players were acquired because they fit the philosophy. Good coaches change the philosophy to fit the players.

[sweetmusicviola16]

2 hours ago, Florida Flash said:

I have not idea but am willing to throw in my 2 cents. IMO everyone is swinging for the fences. (Kep, Bux, etc) Home Runs = $$$$. a 210 hitter with 25 HR's makes a lot more money than a 300 hitter with 6 HRs. (remember Sano) Along with that, everyone is now pounding the weights, trying to get stronger, thus more HR's and of course way more injuries. I dont recall the Twins os 60's-80's hurt all thetime like now. I was told by a hockey coach years ago to take it easy on the weights and go more for flexibility because of less likelyhood of injuries. But like I said, I dunno.

Unfortunately its not just the swing for the fences mentality that is hurting the game. The pitching mentality of you have to throw at 100 plus and have a 13-15k rate per nine that is harming it just as bad. The human body isn't able to do this over the long haul in the vast majority of people. The quality of the game has suffered. I spend just a fraction of the time watching that  I once did. I grew up watching 70's and 80's ball. A 4-3 game with well played D a HR mixed in and both teams combining for 10 K's was baseball. Yeah Nolan Ryan and Steve Carleton were exceptions. The game is suffering, and so are the Twins and the fans who grew up watching the real game of baseball.

[Woof Bronzer]

3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I'm not blaming Popkins, but only because I'm not sure who's idea it has been to get into so many 0-2 counts. 

This is another area where Falvey's offensive philosophy conflicts with itself.  The odds of hitting a HR on an 0-2 low are screamingly low, so if you wanted to build a philosophy solely to hit HRs you would want to avoid 0-2 counts like the plague.  For how much the sabermetrics guys flaunt math and statistics and studies a lot of these strategies are supported by none of it.  It's a philosophy that makes no logical sense and no statistical sense either.  And yet....

[David Maro]

This is not a team,80 percent of the homerun they have are solo.You only have to look at Julien all solo and triple that amount in SO.How many times have they started the inning with a double and was left there because of 2 SO and a pop-up.The organization is playing to the new generation of fans,all about the homerun.Its all baseballs problem.With players using PEDS in the 90s and then juicing the baseball.They needed to put the game clock on the pitcher and hitters years ago,but now they are stuck with a all or nothing game.