Pitcher Injuries are Plaguing the Game. Are the Twins Different or Due?

[Peter Labuza]

Tommy John injuries have become more common as pitchers peruse velocity. As Pete Maki pushes the same for both starters and relievers, are the Twins are due to lose an arm?  

Beyond major betting scandals and uniforms ripping apart, one other story has dominated the start of the Major League Baseball season: pitching injuries. A recent slew of stories—from Ben Lindburgh, Lindsey Adler, and even an anonymous MLB pitcher—has followed from a number of star pitchers have gone down from elbow tears, including Garret Cole, Shane Bieber, and top Marlins prospect Eury Pérez. That’s on top of major pitchers out before the season began, including Shohei Ohtani, Sandy Alcantara, and Jacob deGrom. Tyler Glasnow discussed the issue on Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN.

The issue has become part of a Cold War between owners and players. Tony Clark, head of the Major League Baseball Players Association, issued a statement blaming the new rule changes that were implemented without any player votes. MLB fired back noting that the mounds of research suggest other issues are more at play.

Whatever the causes, Twins fans might be relieved to see that the list of injured pitchers has not included any of their top starters. Which begs the question: have the Twins found a way to improve their pitchers without sustaining injury? Or should we brace ourselves to see Pablo López or Bailey Ober walking off the mound grabbing their arm with a year long recovery timeline?

For most Twins fans, they may scoff at the idea that the team has not been plagued with injuries. And since 2020, the Twins have had six pitchers with major injuries that essentially ended their season. But most of them come with an asterisk. Anthony Desclafani came over as damaged goods (and arguably as a necessary part of to make the Jorge Polanco trade happen). The same could be said of Tyler Mahle and Chris Paddack, who each clearly were due for surgery as soon as they arrived. One might ask why the Twins have acquired these pitchers who were due for injury, but arguably the Twins’ pitching development did not cause these issues. 

That leaves two notable injuries: Kenta Maeda and reliever José De León. After pitching to a Cy Young runner up in the shortened 2020 season, the former Toyo Carp saw weakened velocity throughout 2021 before requiring an internal brace repair after 21 starts. That said, Maeda was injury prone throughout his career and the Los Angeles Dodgers had in part designed his contract with such risk in mind. That only leaves De León, a reliever who pitched 17 1/3rd innings for Minnesota in 2023, who came to the team as a minor league free agent at the start of the season. While it was a frustrating injury, this was not the same as a top line starter.

Part of the interest here is the fact that Twins pitching philosophy has significantly changed with Pete Maki becoming the full time pitching coach following the departure of Wes Johnson. The talk of the town in Spring Training in 2022 was the added velocity from every pitcher, which not only carried throughout last season but has continued since on both fastballs as well as their off speed pitches. Many of the top pitchers have visited Driveline, which others see as a culprit.

FASTBALL	2021	2022	2023	2024
Pablo López	93.4	92.7	94.8	94.7
Joe Ryan	91.2	92	92.3	93.4
Bailey Ober	92.3	91.5	91.3	90.4
Louie Varland	MiLB	92.4	92.8	93.3
Chris Paddack	94.8	93	95.5	94.6
Caleb Thielbar	91.3	92.8	93.1	N/A
Griffix Jax	MiLB	95.4	96.2	96.4
Jhoan Duran	MiLB	100.8	101.8	N/A
BREAKING	2021	2022	2023	2024
Pablo López	80.2	80.9	83.7	83.3
Joe Ryan	78.1	80.1	80.3	84.4
Bailey Ober	79.1	80.8	80.1	79.4
Louie Varland	MiLB	83.3	83.9	84.6
Chris Paddack	78.7	77.3	83.5	83
Caleb Thielbar	77.5	77.2	78.4	N/A
Griffix Jax	MiLB	86.1	86.7	88.5
Jhoan Duran	MiLB	88	87.7	N/A
Blue refers to former Team

While the causes of more pitcher injuries are myriad, velocity is seen as a top culprit. Pitchers—from high school to All Stars—are now almost entirely focused on velocity as a central goal. As one anonymous pitching coach told The Athletic, “Pitchers and analysts pursue velo. The pitchers that don’t do this retire. The ones that stay take on some injury risk to avoid working at Costco.”  

So what does that mean for the Twins’ staff? Last year, the staff avoided any major injuries; the most notable one was Joe Ryan’s groin strain. And while the bullpen is slightly depleted to begin the year, no one’s injury has hinted at likely heading for Tommy John. 

So perhaps Maki is doing things differently. In an article about López’s more effective and elite sweeper, the pitcher suggested it was more the grip than any other changes. “The seams are doing the work for you.” Ryan also worked over the offseason to change his grip and find more velocity. Others have suggested some warning signs, however.

For Maki’s part, he has said in interviews that his goal is not to just go for high velocity only. "I think we are still a pitch to contact [organization]…The whole pitch to contact, and wanting misses, and wanting strikeouts, that coexists together for us.” But the Twins so far are acting as a strikeout team, ranking 1st in the majors for Ks/9 and third lowest in xFIP.

Pitcher injuries are no fun, even when they happen to opponents. It's more fun to see the Twins crush Shane Bieber than not see him at all. But the bigger worry is whether there is a ticking time bomb. The Twins pitching and training staff should be carefully monitoring these arms. With very little depth this season, one Tommy John could cost the entire season.

 

 

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[mikelink45]

It used to be the curving balls were the cause of injury.  And kids were told not to throw a curve or one of its equivalents because it was bad for the arm.  I do believe we have gone overboard in our quest for speed.  Not everyone is a Nolan Ryan or Bob Feller or Walter Johnson. But the blame on the pitch clock is ridiculous.  In the 1920s and 1930s the average time for a game was less than two hours!  Were the pitchers walking around the mound, staring and using the resin bag and delaying so they would not get injured?  To be that fast it was get the ball, throw the ball.  Even by the 1980s the games were barely over 2 1/2 hours and some of that was the delay with the advent of more RP.  

We have always had pitcher injuries - like Bob Grim who won 20 for the Yankees and then had arm trouble.  No one had the idea of what to do so they made him a relief pitcher.

Mark Fydrich (Big Bird) was a favorite and he went down and we lost a potentially great career.

The reason the Tommy John surgery was so important was the fact that we have always been losing pitchers to the various versions of the injury, but until Tommy (who should be in the HOF) we did not have a name or a solution.

Gary Nolan, Don Gullett, Dick Radatz, Smoky Joe Wood, Mark Prior and more lost their careers to arm trouble..

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/mlb/news/the-long-sad-history-of-injured-pitchers This article follows the history of arm trouble - " In 1910, Ford at age 27 came to play for the New York Yankees and he went 26-6 with a 1.65 ERA and 209 strikeouts in 299 2/3 innings. " "Russ Ford soon suffered from, yep, “arm fatigue.” What’s that? His arm hurt. He had a good second year, but by his third he led the league in losses. They Yankees dumped him after the next year."

"Tommy Thomas at age 27 won 19 games with a 2.98 ERA for the Chicago White Sox. He led all pitchers in WAR. Three years later, he blew out his elbow," 

Bill James of the Boston Braves won 26 then came down with arm fatigue and career ended.  

 

[Whitey333]

I'm glad you know all the answers.  Perhaps you should be hired by MLB to help solve this crisis lol.  Seriously though I've heard many major league pitchers from the past say there is too much emphasis on spin rates and sweepers and not pitching.  As one pitcher said, give me a pitcher not a thrower.  Plus he mentioned pitchers don't take enough time off during the off season to rest up their bodies.  Who knows for sure what the answer is.

[Eris]

MLB could do a number of items to reduce injury risk. First, they could raise the seams as this would enable more ball movement with less stress. Second, make it harder to hit home runs by deadening the ball. Three, raise the pitching mound. Changes that were made to increase offense resulted in pitchers adjusting by adding velocity and spin to be more effective. Youth sports is also part of the problem. In order to be drafted, players need to be playing baseball year round (or at least 9 months of the year). 

[Jocko87]

I've been working on a spreadsheet for Favline pitching acquisitions as I'm curious that I thought I was picking up a pattern of age and body type in their selections. Sure enough, they have a type.

I'm traveling and don't have it in front of me, and I'm certainly not done with the research but some patterns are very strong.

The average pitcher acquired by Favline (from memory) is about 6' 2 1/4“, 215 lbs and on the older side. We know their proclivity for college arms and I believe it's part of the plan. There are some notable exceptions, like a Raya, but he is truly an outlier size wise.  Probably 90% are within 2 inches and 20 lbs of the average. I'll post a plot when I get back off the road.

While I believe the college pitcher angle is mainly aligned with trying to get their best years as controllable arb years the arm health is almost certainly part of the equation. Many have already had their Tommy John and there is much more information available on the arm in general.

I'm convinced they believe it is a risk to invest in non-optimum body types and this is why. I'm really just starting with the research but it's a very interesting topic.

[Doctor Gast]

Very interesting article Peter. Twins have been pretty fortunate as far as serious pitching injuries. Almost all our problems have been inherited. I was going to mention Maeda but you explained that he had injury problems before, LAD limiting him to primary BP. The Twin got Maeda with the intent to extend him solely as a SP. Even though a shortened '20 season,  Maeda got TJ.

But in general, the Twins have been good at limiting their SPs' innings, which only leads to minor injuries & times of inefficiency (which IMO could be bettered). 

I agree with Mike that I doubt that the pitch clock has any effect on arm injuries. IMO the balls are too smooth, which pitchers have to grip harder & IMO could provoke arm injuries. IMO the balls could be universally scuffed up, They could implement this together with the electronic strike calls. 

[chpettit19]

3 hours ago, Eris said:

MLB could do a number of items to reduce injury risk. First, they could raise the seams as this would enable more ball movement with less stress. Second, make it harder to hit home runs by deadening the ball. Three, raise the pitching mound. Changes that were made to increase offense resulted in pitchers adjusting by adding velocity and spin to be more effective. Youth sports is also part of the problem. In order to be drafted, players need to be playing baseball year round (or at least 9 months of the year). 

The question is if the pitchers would actually back off of what they're doing now or if they'd just keep throwing max effort and the pitches would just be even better and it'd be even harder to hit. I don't think you'd see a significant reduction in velocity, and that's the leading problem in stress on arms.

I think fixing this issue comes down to convincing teams and players to quit throwing max effort so frequently. I'm not sure how you convince guys to do that when it's well known that it's a significant advantage in getting hitters out. And getting hitters out is what gets kids drafted and guys paid. It's also what keeps baseball execs and coaches employed. Who's going to be the first team to take a chance on backing off velocity to hopefully save arms while taking the chance the slower pitches don't just lead to them all getting fired because their pitchers aren't successful enough?

It's not an easy problem to solve. It's putting the toothpaste back in the tube. Convincing people to take a step back is not easy.

[saviking]

Pitchers! Hell, position players are getting hurt all of the time as wwell.i just don't remember this level of injuries in the old days (1960's - 70's) .. Maybe there is too much weight training. Bigger muscles but same old ligaments and soft tissue.) Just saying ..

[joefish]

Maybe quit throwing out the baseballs that touch the dirt.  Use the scuffed balls. Get more movement without increased spin rate. 

Something else to look at