The Next Minnesota Twins, 2024 Edition

[Steve Lein]

Four Minnesota Twins prospects made their MLB debuts during the 2023 season, while across all of baseball, 261 players made those same dreams come true. Which prospects could be those Next Minnesota Twins for the 2024 season?

Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Twins players who made their debut last year included second baseman Edouard Julien, and pitchers Brent Headrick, Jordan Balazovic, and Kody Funderburk. All those names but Funderburk were detailed in this same column before the start of last season, and that total of four was tied for the lowest of any team in baseball, with the Philadelphia Phillies. It’s crazy to think I’ve now been writing this same column for over 15 years, and that is the lowest number I’ve ever had hit for these predictions! It’s also a good thing, when you think about why that was the case.

The Twins won the division after a two-year hiatus, and then took their first playoff series since all the way back in 2002. (Any guesses as to who the Twins players were who made their MLB debut that season? I’ll give one hint: an outfielder who debuted was "one-of-us," just like Matt Wallner.)

When it comes to those 2023 debuts, Julien and Funderburk will break camp with the major-league club this year, while Headrick remains on the 40-man roster as available depth in Triple-A. Balazovic was removed from the 40-man over the winter, but will also be back with the St. Paul Saints.

With their established and veteran position player roster, it will likely be another year with a lower number of debuts than usual. However, injuries can always throw a wrench into such hopes, and their starting pitching is unlikely to stay as healthy as they did last year, when the Twins had five players make 20 or more starts.

Like every season, it is not a question of if a player will make their MLB debut with the Twins, but when, so who are some of the potential Next Minnesota Twins for 2024?

ON THE 40-MAN ROSTER
As alluded to above, the Twins 40-man roster is full of established players and those who have already had a cup of coffee in the majors, as this section only has five players who are eligible for this list. There may not be a lot of superstar potential here, but there are a few guys who don’t have much left to prove in the minors.

Austin Martin (25 years old on Opening Day), IF/OF – Twins Daily’s #7 Prospect (Martin made his debut on 3/30, coming in as a pinch runner. He made his first start on 3/31, going 0-for-3)
I’m a big believer in Martin, and thought he was primed for a big comeback season in 2023 on the heels of his stellar performance in the Arizona Fall League the year before. Unfortunately, his campaign last year didn’t really get started until July, as he dealt with an elbow injury that threatened to require Tommy John surgery. I think the Twins made a big mistake in trying to overhaul Martin’s swing, but he got back to what he excels at, which is putting the ball in play and getting on base to cause havoc. While his role is likely a super-utility job in the future, the Twins are known to get a lot of run out of those types, and I love his bat at the top of the batting order alongside Julien--or turning it over to him, as a second leadoff hitter in the 9-hole.

Matt Canterino (26), RHP – TD’s #17 Prospect
When he’s been able to pitch, Canterino has been a favorite of mine. He’s herky-jerky, high-effort, and high-enthusiasm, and some of those points may play a part in why he’s only pitched 85 total innings as a pro. He also has put up video game-like numbers with a big fastball, wipeout slider, and whatever other weapon he wants to flummox hitters with that day. While he is going to be back on the injured list at Triple-A to start this season, it's not because of the elbow issues he has dealt with in the past, so he’s still on track to make an impact this year. I think the ship has sailed on him being a starter, and they should just unleash him in the bullpen, though I’m not sure yet whether the Twins agree.

Yunior Severino (24), 1B/DH – TD’s #16 Prospect
Added to the 40-man roster in the offseason after leading all of the minor leagues in home runs last year, Severino brings big power with big swing-and-miss numbers. It's hard to envision where his bat may fit in a Twins lineup, but he did start to transition to first base with the Saints last season, and that may be his best option to break through, as Carlos Santana is on the tail end of his career and Alex Kirilloff has had issues staying healthy. All that said, there are worse options to have waiting in the minors than a bona fide home run king.

Jair Camargo (24), C (Camargo made his debut on 4/16, drawing a pinch hit appearance in which he drew a walk, and came around to score a run)
Even though you won’t find Camargo’s name on any top prospect lists, you will find him among the leaders in peak exit velocity over on Baseball Savant. If you do enough searching there, you’ll find out he was in the elite category when it came to Barrel % and other hard-hit metrics. He also had the fourth-longest home run in Triple-A, measuring a staggering 486 feet (on June 8, if you care to look it up). My point here is, this is a catcher who hits absolute bombs, a good combination to have waiting in the wings. If you made the trip to spring training earlier in March, you may have seen this in action for yourself.

Emmanuel Rodriguez (21), OF – TD’s #3 Prospect
The youngest player on this list, Rodríguez enters the 2024 season as a global top-100 prospect, landing in the top 50 in most publications. He lit the Florida State League on fire in 2022 before having his season ended prematurely by a knee injury and showed some rust swinging the bat in 2023. But what didn’t change was his knack for getting on base and showing off his light-tower power. While he might strike out a bit more than you would like to see (29.5%), when paired with his elite walk rate (20.2%) you end up with a .400 OBP and an OPS .161 above the league average. He also got better as the season wore on, shaking off that rust for a .265/.406/.553 batting line over the final two months (.257 above the league-average OPS). He will begin the year in Wichita, and if all goes to plan, he should arrive at CHS Field this summer.

TOP PROSPECTS
With the likes of Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, and Matt Wallner now finding themselves established as regulars on the major-league team, the pickings are slim from the top echelon of the Twins pipeline. However, these two guys should see time with the big-league club in 2024, looking to follow in their footsteps.

Brooks Lee (23), IF – TD’s #2 Prospect (Lee was called up on July 3rd as Royce Lewis hit the injured list. He went 2-for-4 in his debut that day, driving in one in a 9-2 loss to the Detroit Tigers)
Rather than rehash much of what I’d like to say here, I’ll just point you to the Top Prospect article I wrote earlier this offseason, linked above. Lee’s production fell off in Triple-A last year, but there is a reason he remains a consensus top-50 prospect in all of baseball. A plus hitter from both sides of the plate and an unmatched student of the game, Lee should see time in the majors this season, though I’m not sure that happens as early as it did for Julien last year, even if an injury strikes the Twins infield. Lee is not yet on the 40-man roster, so there's a hurdle to clear.

David Festa (24), RHP – TD’s #6 Prospect (Festa made his debut on 6/27, starting against the Diamondbacks on the road. He worked five innings, allowing five earned runs on seven hits and a walk, while striking out two, but it was enough to pick up his first win!)
The Twins’ pitching depth has already been stressed this spring, with injuries to Jhoan Durán, Anthony DeSclafani, Caleb Thielbar, and Justin Topa. Josh Winder and Matt Canterino will also open the season on the injured list. This pushes Festa a bit higher up the pecking order than anticipated, and with him essentially anchoring the Saints' starting staff, big-league spot-starter opportunities are on the table immediately for the tall right-hander. His fastball averaged 94+ MPH in 2023, and his slider is a swing-and-miss weapon.

TRIPLE-A DEPTH
Almost every year, a major-league team will need an emergency catcher, a fill-in outfielder, a spot starter, or a fresh arm for a depleted bullpen. While guys like this aren't necessarily on top prospect lists, you never know when an extra body might be needed to cover your needs in a pinch.

DaShawn Keirsey (26), OF (Keirsey made his debut on 9/5 against the Rays, coming into the game as a defensive replacement in the 8th inning. He made his fist start on 9/7, and collected his first hit on 9/10)
The Twins' fourth-round pick in 2018 took a big step forward in 2023, crushing the Texas League to earn a promotion to St. Paul in August. In his breakout season, he showed that he has speed (39 steals in 44 attempts), is a good defender in the corners or center field, and made strides in the patience (.366 OBP) and power (.455 SLG) departments.    

Anthony Prato (25), IF/OF
I don’t know what to make of Anthony Prato, but if you really squint, you can see a player in the Julien mold, minus a bit of the power from the French-Canadian import. Prato couldn’t hit in Wichita last year, but the Twins promoted him to St. Paul anyway, and then he basically never stopped hitting. Where my Julien comparison really comes from is the .452 OBP he compiled in Triple-A, thanks to 59 walks in 72 games. Maybe Prato just really knows how to take advantage of the Automatic Ball-Strike System.

Ryan Jensen (26), RHP
A former first-round pick, Jensen was claimed off waivers by the Twins back in January, the fourth such claim a team had made on him this offseason. He finally made it through and was outrighted to St. Paul not long afterward. He is the definition of a reclamation project, needing to hone his control and command, but the Twins like his pure stuff and he misses a lot of bats.

DARK HORSES
Now we get to some shots in the dark: players who could come out of nowhere to make a surprise debut. They might be a well-known name, but not that far up the ladder at the start of the season (think Randy Dobnak); returning from an injury, such that they may have been forgotten; or have a unique pitch or other ability that could pay off in a big way.

Marco Raya (21), RHP – TD’s #5 Prospect
I do have an issue with how the Twins have utilized Raya, which is as a starting pitcher who didn’t throw more than four innings or 65 pitches in any game last year. That being said, the results were there, with a sub-1.00 WHIP and 3.00 ERA over 62 2/3 innings. They do need to take the reins off at some point, but even if they don’t in 2024, there is a world wherein Raya emerges as a bullpen option late in the year.

Regi Grace (24), RHP
Grace was the best relief pitcher I watched in the system while with the Kernels to begin last year, and that sentiment was backed up by his 1.16 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, and 11.6 strikeouts-per-nine-innings pitching line before being promoted. With Wichita, he wasn’t nearly as effective, but I’m chalking that up to the step up in competition and fewer whiffs at his plus slider, which he will need to locate better.

Cory Lewis (23), RHP
Twins Daily’s Starting Pitcher of the Year in 2023 went 9-4 with a 2.49 ERA with Fort Myers and Cedar Rapids. Yes, he throws a knuckleball, but no, he is not a knuckleball pitcher. The pitch is thrown more as a changeup alternative, sitting in the mid-80s, but it does everything you expect a knuckler to do. I’d like the Twins to push him to Wichita, but even if he’s back with Cedar Rapids, it won’t be for long.

Pierson Ohl (24), RHP
Known for a sub-90 fastball coming out of college, Ohl has been one of the latest success stories for the Twins' development staff in adding velocity. Now consistently in the 90s, his stuff is playing up thanks to impeccable control (1.3 BB/9IP). He had a 0.95 WHIP in 16 games (14 starts) with Wichita last season.

DON’T FORGET ABOUT
These are just some of my favorite guys in the system--personal cheeseballs as they say--who deserve consideration if things go off the rails and have been a part of the organization for a while now.

Michael Helman (27), IF/OF (Helman made his debut on September 3rd against the Tampa Bay Rays. He batted ninth playing right field, and collected his first MLB hit, a single, in two at-bats.)
Was a prime candidate as a utility fill-in heading into the 2023 season, but injuries held him to just 38 games. Has underrated power and stole 40 bases in 45 attempts in 2022.

Chris Williams (27), C/1B
This guy is my spirit animal, consistently going off on the day I am responsible for the Minor League Report (Tuesday). Has a knack for home run binges, so if the Twins' depth at first base is challenged, he could be a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency option.

Cody Laweryson (25), RHP
Was lights-out during the 2022 season, in which he finished second in our Relief Pitcher of the Year voting. He didn’t have the same success as the season wore on in Triple-A last year, but can function as a multi-inning reliever in a pinch with his starting experience.

The prospects above are just some of those I think we could see in Twins colors at Target Field for the first time this season. When do you think any of them will take the Green Line from St. Paul to Minneapolis? Who will have the debut you are most excited about, and who are some of the prospects you think I may have missed? Let’s play ball!

(Twins players who debuted during the 2002 season included: Todd Sears, Mike Ryan, Kevin Frederick, and Rochester, MN native Michael Restovich)

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[terrydactyls]

All winter I read about how 2023 was a great season for the amount of Twins players making their MLB debut.  Turns out they had the fewest debuts in the major leagues.  Damn facts!

[FlyingFinn]

16 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

All winter I read about how 2023 was a great season for the amount of Twins players making their MLB debut.

Quality over quantity - Lewis, Julien and Wallner.

[Doctor Gast]

I'm excited about some of our prospects, especially Lee & Martin & some pitchers like Festa, Canterino & even Raya could see some time if he turns it on & there's a need.

Quote

My point here is, this is a catcher who hits absolute bombs,

Carmargo should see some time hopefully not much, because although he has an arm he's not that good defensively. Carmargo is the byproduct of the Twins' neglect of defense & focus on big bat/ high SOs at the premium position. Competitive teams acknowledge the importance of defense at the catching position.

[John Belinski]

We ay need batting help since Wallner has looked really bad this Spring.

[chpettit19]

48 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

Quality over quantity - Lewis, Julien and Wallner.

Lewis and Wallner didn't make their debuts in 2023. It's just some technical term stuff happening here. 3 rookies, only 1 debut.

[Steve Lein]

1 hour ago, FlyingFinn said:

Quality over quantity - Lewis, Julien and Wallner.

Definitely this. In last years I predicted there wouldn't be very many, as the year before had 13 debuts!!!

BUT, Lewis and Wallner actually debuted in 2022. They just got a lot more run in 2023.

My interesting stat:

WAR of 2022 debuts (13 players): 2.7

WAR of 2023 debuts (4 players): 3.1

[Steve Lein]

1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

Carmargo should see some time hopefully not much, because although he has an arm he's not that good defensively. Carmargo is the byproduct of the Twins' neglect of defense & focus on big bat/ high SOs at the premium position. Competitive teams acknowledge the importance of defense at the catching position.

Camargo has been, historically, very good at controlling running games, with a 40% caught stealing percentage while in the Twins system. He's certainly not Christian Vasquez when it comes to defense/framing/etc... (also remember, triple-A has been using ABS), who you ignore is on the Twins with the last comment and was very good defensively last year, but Camargo is a perfectly fine option for a 3rd catcher.

[DocBauer]

MARTIN: Definitely a ML ballplayer. How good he might be is still open for debate. Agreed, is he a super utility or a starting player? Or could he actually be both? He's probably getting his shot early in 2024 with the Royce injury today.

LEE: Is he going to be really good, or great? He's the perfect add to fill in for Royce, but alas, he tweaked his back in the last game. 

SEVERINO: Apparently, he shed quite a bit of weight this offseason and came in in great shape. Maybe that means he can continue to play 3B and some 2B? Love the power and equal splits from both sides of the plate. I think his debut is 2025. Just too many options ahead of him right now.

CAMARGO: I can't believe Jeffers and Vazquez will be 100% again for an entire season. Big power, good arm, reportedly solid behind the plate. He'll debut at some point. Hopefully he won't be needed a lot.

RODRIGUEZ: This is the year where we find out if he can still be patient, but also HIT. He seems almost too patient/passive at times. But 2025 seems about right to me.

FESTA: He's probably up at some point, but he's PROBABLY behind both SWR and Headrick right now due to experience. That might change come June/July. I think he's exciting!

CANTERINO: I just think this latest setback...not serious I don't believe...might just mean it's time to give up on the dream of him in the rotation. Like Duran, time to move him to the pen. July/August if he can stay healthy?

RAYA, GRACE, LEWIS, and OHL: Very unlikely. Raya needs to build up. Lewis just needs more time. Grace has a small shot, and I'm very intrigued, but the number of available arms tells me "not yet". Ohl might have the best shot here. Now that he's developed consistent mid 90's velocity along with control and good secondary stuff, I'm seeing him as an option later in the 2nd half of the year. He might be a big surprise this year.

HELMAN, KEIRSEY, PRATO and WILLIAMS: The Twins obviously like Helman. He's a RH Castro. A couple injuries too deep for the 40 man, I can see him up. Prato is not quite as versatile as Helman. Not quite as much power. But the HIT and OB tools look interesting. But I don't see him until 2025 simply due to Castro, Farmer, Martin, Lee, and maybe Helman currently ahead of him. But he's the kind of versatile, do it all kind of player that might force his way on to a roster soon, especially with some inevitable roster shuffling next year. If Keirsey's bat from 2023 can translate to AAA, he's got a shot based on his speed and defense. But right now, he's got to prove himself at AAA, and he's behind Buxton, Margot, and Martin. I think Williams best shot was 2023 when Gallo struggled so much. He's a 4th catcher at best, and 1B may be too stacked. 

JENSEN and LAWYERSON: Jensen is a complete rebuild. He throws hard, was a former top pick, and is still relatively young. But he's got to find some semblance of control because he doesn't have any right now. Lawyerson was a major disappointment in 2023. I actually thought he might force his way up in 2023 at some point. Didn't happen. He's got a lot of arms ahead of him right now. This is a big year for him.

Some of the "dark horses" and non roster players are legitimate prospects who's time will come, and some are late bloomers. Not all will make it, or even get a cup of coffee. A couple might have a better shot moving on after this season. But that doesn't mean there isn't some talent in those late bloomers! A healthy Twins roster this year and next is potentially pretty stacked. But we need look no further than Castro to see that when opportunity arises, and you have ability, when you get your shot, just perform the best you can.

 

 

[nicksaviking]

11 hours ago, Steve Lein said:

Camargo has been, historically, very good at controlling running games, with a 40% caught stealing percentage while in the Twins system. He's certainly not Christian Vasquez when it comes to defense/framing/etc... (also remember, triple-A has been using ABS), who you ignore is on the Twins with the last comment and was very good defensively last year, but Camargo is a perfectly fine option for a 3rd catcher.

If he could be a fine option for a 2nd catcher (and Vazquez shows to be a usable catcher again), the Twins could find an excellent path to freeing up salary to get more help midseason.

[Steve Lein]

11 hours ago, DocBauer said:

RODRIGUEZ: This is the year where we find out if he can still be patient, but also HIT. He seems almost too patient/passive at times. But 2025 seems about right to me.

Love all the thoughts in this comment, but I just wanted to single this one out, because it is one I think rings true. A little bit more aggressiveness I think could pay off for Rodriguez. I'd definitely call him a passive hitter, and while that's led to incredible walk numbers, it is also the reason the strikeouts remain high. Will be interesting to follow this season for sure!