Kansas City Royals 2024 Preview

[Hunter McCall]

After finishing with the second-worst record in MLB in 2023, how will the financially reinforced Kansas City Royals look in 2024? Do the Twins have anything to worry about from them?

Image courtesy of © Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

The 2023 Royals finished the season with an abysmal 56-106 record, last place even in the moribund AL Central. Despite the disappointing campaign (or because of it, along with the pressure to build goodwill among fans ahead of a new stadium push), the Royals were active this offseason and could be much more competitive in a relatively weak division. Let's peek behind the lines of one of the Twins' enemies in the Central.

Offseason Moves
To improve the third-worst team ERA in baseball (5.17), the Royals brought in a number of arms to bolster their rotation and their bullpen. Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo both joined the rotation, while Will Smith, Chris Stratton, and Nick Anderson will be welcome additions to the bullpen. None of those signings broke the bank or were particularly eye-popping, but they should ensure that the Royals pitching staff improves in 2024. Pairing these veterans with their young, blossoming stud Cole Ragans (who came over in the Aroldis Chapman trade last summer) and bounce-back hopeful Brady Singer, the Royals should be more competitive.

The most significant new addition to their lineup was outfielder Hunter Renfroe. Coming off a down year in 2023 with the Angels and Reds, Renfroe is a rebound candidate. He projects to slot in as a corner outfielder who will provide a decent amount of power to a lineup that hit only 163 home runs in 2023, tied for fourth-fewest in MLB.

The big splash came when they extended superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to an 11-year, $288.7-million contract with three years of team options that could result in $89M more when it’s all said and done. Witt will be the team’s star player for a long time and should act as a cornerstone around whom to build.

Bright Spots
Despite the Royals’ poor recent history, they have some talent on the roster. I mentioned Witt, but the Royals have other valuable pieces, as well. Salvador Pérez has been a fixture in the middle of the Kansas City lineup for over a decade, and while he isn’t as productive as he once was, he was still an All-Star in 2023. The Royals also have a couple of young hitters, in Vinnie Pasquantino and MJ Melendez, who could progress into above-average everyday players.

The aforementioned Ragans will be the team’s Opening Day starter, and he could grow into a true ace. Still just 26 years old, the left-handed pitcher produced 2.4 bWAR in 2023, in just 96 innings pitched. His Statcast page supports his dominance; it looks as though the Royals hit a home run with their 2023 deadline acquisition.

Bottom Line
The Royals haven’t topped 80 wins in a season since 2017 and haven’t been above .500 since they won the World Series in 2015. The good news is they have some young guys who look like they could develop into solid baseball players. Witt is a bona fide superstar, and Ragans, Pasquantino, and Melendez are all 26 or younger and could be solid major-league players if they continue to progress. There’s hope for the future, but I don’t think their roster is good enough to compete for a division title. I foresee them being much more competitive in 2024, but still near the basement of the AL Central.

Record Projection: 71-91

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What do you expect for the 2024 Royals? How many of the Twins' 13 games against them will be Minnesota wins? Jumpstart the conversation below.

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[Dave The Dastardly]

I've had a soft spot for the Royals since I met both Brett and Poquette in a non-baseball setting back in the 1970's. That soft spot tells me the Royals are looking at a .500 season and will likely embarrass the Twins in a series or two, per usual.

 

 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

Even 15 wins would be a gigantic step forward, for much of last season they were competing with Oakland as the worst team in baseball.

Sure, it's nice they signed some guys they're going to trade at the deadline but this team is still incredibly thin. 70 wins would be a success, IMO. 

[bean5302]

I think it's impossible to predict the Royals this year. They're going to be much better than last year, but they're still relying on a ton of unproven young prospects. If some of those guys take a big step forward, the Royals could end up at .500. I think they're somewhere in the 75-79 wins area.

[sweetmusicviola16]

The Royals haven't made up 30 games with their improvements. But they will be a lot better in 2024. That being said I look at them as somewhere in that 73-77 wins or so. I'll agree with Dave above, will possibly embarrass the Twins in a series or two. The Twins will not have a cakewalk to the AL Central crown. If these pitching injuries continue we may not even win this division.

[bean5302]

3 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

The Royals haven't made up 30 games with their improvements. But they will be a lot better in 2024. That being said I look at them as somewhere in that 73-77 wins or so. I'll agree with Dave above, will possibly embarrass the Twins in a series or two. The Twins will not have a cakewalk to the AL Central crown. If these pitching injuries continue we may not even win this division.

It'll be between the Tigers and the Twins. The outcome determined by the starting rotations.

[sweetmusicviola16]

4 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

It'll be between the Tigers and the Twins. The outcome determined by the starting rotations.

My prediction is still for the Twins to win. 84 for the Twins. 83 for Det. 79 for Cle. Then Royals in mid 70's. With the Sad Sux in misery losing 100.

But Twins are no shoe in.

[Karbo]

This past weekend I predicted KC at 72 wins, passing Chicago.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

These signings are nice, but when you start with a team that only won 56 games, it’s hard to get close to contention.  They are still probably only a 70ish win team, but that’s a big step forward.  If more of their young players develop and they can take another step forward after that, they are looking at a .500 record by 2025.  I’ve always liked the Royals, but the road ahead is a very long one.  Luckily for them, the White Sox will work very hard to beat them to the bottom of the basement this summer.  

[MMMordabito]

Another sweep to start the season would be fun.  Of course, Joey Gallo and Trevor Larnach won't be available, so it might be tough.

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

These signings are nice, but when you start with a team that only won 56 games, it’s hard to get close to contention.  They are still probably only a 70ish win team, but that’s a big step forward.  If more of their young players develop and they can take another step forward after that, they are looking at a .500 record by 2025.  I’ve always liked the Royals, but the road ahead is a very long one.  Luckily for them, the White Sox will work very hard to beat them to the bottom of the basement this summer.  

Their Pythagorean was 64 wins last year so they weren't truly as horrible as their record suggested. There's some luck factor in there.

[CRF]

I don't think the Twins have to worry about KC yet. It's Detroit that I'm concerned about. They've got a very good young core and are getting better fast. They could be real trouble for us. 

[Whitey333]

Anything that improves competition in the AL Central would be great.  The mediocre Twins have benefited greatly from incompetence amongst the other teams.  They likely aren't competitive if the Twins were in most divisions.  I think it's a very important this year that the Twins perform well and win the division.  Anything less in this division of stiffs would be a huge disappointment.   

[MABB1959]

What to do with Kepler, Margot and Wallner.