Are The Twins Going To Sign Another Starting Arm Option? Should They?

[DocBauer]

I've been saying for a while now that I believe the Twins are going to sign a FA rotation arm on a milb deal to place in St Paul to see what they've got left. Said deal and said pitcher would involve some sort of split deal for when/if he were to reach the Twins. Further, a rather standard June or July 1st opt out clause would seem to make sense for this proposed signing.

Why should the Twins make a move like this?

Well, honestly, why not? A milb is no obligation. Any ML portion of the deal couldn't be for more than a couple $M depending on something as simple as innings pitched. While we all want to be optimistic on the health of the rotation, at some point, someone is going to be injured and miss at least a little time. DeSclafini is not a model of availability to begin with. And when Varland comes up...which he inevitably will...who's next in line? Is SWR really about ready to bust out? How many weeks until Festa is prepared to face a ML lineup with expected success? Or Canterino? Or Ohl? How big of a jump can Headrick make in year 2 of being on the 40 man and at the AAA level? 

The Twins did something similar last year with Dallas Keuchel, though it was later in the season. Essentially, he was brought on board for some late season insurance, but also as a possible "rest 'em if you can" option to get the rest of the rotation any rest that felt necessary to get them 100% and ready to go for the post season.

Why shouldn't the Twins make a move like this?

Well, this proposed signing might take away opportunity from all of the young arms just mentioned above. Isn't getting the young arms in the system all the work and experience they can for the ML club more important than some veteran flier that might not have it any longer? Or might not even be as good come June as the younger arm with a future? 

But should the Twins go this route, who's available anyway? 

Well, old friend Jake Odorizzi is on the comeback trail and is already very familiar to the Twins, and vice versa. 37yo Johnny Cueta did not have a good 2023, but was surprisingly effective as recently as 2022. How is Michael Lorenzen still un-signed after being good with the Tigers in the first half but awful with the Phillies in the second half? He still tossed 150 IP, had a 2 WAR. Would Syndergaard be stilly just in case you might figure something out and be an approximation of his old self? Apparently nobody is interested in Mike Clevinger at all! 

What do you think? Should the Twins make a milb move of this nature? There's little cost and no real risk. And there's veteran arms still sitting there waiting for work. Or are they better off conserving every bit of $ resource left to them for a mid year acquisition and they should devote all AAA innings to young arms and give up on what might end up as nothing more than a foolish flier?

 

 

[ashbury]

The Twins should try any and all approaches.  But what kind of quality pitcher settles for a minor league no-obligation contract?

It will be almost certainly a move with no upside and likely no impact.  Keuchel's a pretty good example.

[DocBauer]

34 minutes ago, ashbury said:

The Twins should try and and all approaches.  But what kind of quality pitcher settles for a minor league no-obligation contract?

It will be almost certainly a move with no upside and likely no impact.  Keuchel's a pretty good example.

I generally agree. But this FA has been pretty strange. And my concern is Varland being up sooner than hoped for (DeScalfini if nobody else) and then what? And that's why I wonder if maybe a veteran flier trying to prove themselves again might be smart?

[ashbury]

16 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

I generally agree. But this FA has been pretty strange. And my concern is Varland being up sooner than hoped for (DeScalfini if nobody else) and then what? And that's why I wonder if maybe a veteran flier trying to prove themselves again might be smart?

Dallas Keuchel.  Aaron Sanchez.  Chi Chi Rodriguez.  One can go back through the seasons and find a few signings like these who got called up.  Probably the Twins will sign someone like these in 2024 (so I'm not disagreeing with your outlook), maybe our old friend Odo, to join this fraternity, and with similar overall consequence.

[DocBauer]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

Dallas Keuchel.  Aaron Sanchez.  Chi Chi Rodriguez.  One can go back through the seasons and find a few signings like these who got called up.  Probably the Twins will sign someone like these in 2024 (so I'm not disagreeing with your outlook), maybe our old friend Odo, to join this fraternity, and with similar overall consequence.

Totally remember those names and the overall results. Though I feel really bad about DeLeon, who you didn't mention, as maybe a BP transition that might have turned out before he got hurt, yet again.

And I'm not necessarily advocating for a signing. I can see a lot of reasons to simply trust in what we have and work with it for the now, and the future.

But there is a part of me that wonders what an Oddo might be like with a month or so to rebound if we need him. Or a Cueto. Or...name the guy just sitting around who might be a sold 5th starter if Varland is brought up right away and we might not want to bring up one of the prospects early. Sort of the reverse Keuchel.

Again, I'm just spitballing and throwing the idea out there. My opinion is mixed. 

[Jocko87]

Chi Chi Rodriguez the golfer?  Yes just for the clubhouse presence. 

It's a tough scene for free agents but if the Cleavingers and Lorenzens aren't getting signed maybe a Brad Keller at 28yo might have to take a MiLB deal?  Some of these guys are going to want jobs pretty soon and a younger guy might have Kuechel upside.  Late season innings eater for cheap.

I would imagine they are all over this market.  All the AAA starters will have innings managed for one reason of another and there will be plenty to chew up.

[Fatbat]

I would be on someone signing a milb contract with an opt out.  Its not going to block any existing talent because they will call up the hot hand for a spot start anyhow.  Too bad it isn’t possible to sign a two way/temp contract that can be modified on the fly. Something about only available to certain players based on service time. I think it would get alot of these guys signed and playing. 

[akmanak]

They should but won't. 

[wabene]

Kuechel was quite useful last year at a time when guys like Ober needed a breather. 

[JD-TWINS]

Has Kuechel swallowed his pride & retired? If not, he may be the May 25th signing to an MiLB deal with an August opt out for him?

Lorenzen threw a high pitch count, no hitter after joining the Phillies and then went in the tank. He’ll get signed as a high test Bullpen arm at worst. My assumption is that at this point, Lorenzen & Clevinger are just waiting for the “Spring Training” injuries to start wearing down a particular staff. They’ll be signed in 10 days, somewhere. Seems the Orioles have a couple big question marks with their staff already - 2 guys that were keys in their rotation mix are down……as an example.

For 3 months I’ve been promoting Clevinger for the Twins at $16M/yr for two years. 131 innings in his 2nd year back from surgery with a 3.71 ERA. ………maybe he signs another “prove it deal” for only 1 year ……….with a mutual option for the 2nd year?

Festa - SWR are every bit as likely to succeed as Cueto, Kuechel, Odo, etc. those guys are a stretch for any organization let alone one that’s aspiring to get to League Championship series.

[stringer bell]

At some point the line is crossed. That line is when young pitchers are protected from being called up too early by having a veteran in line and when they are slowed from getting their opportunity by those same veteran arms. In 2023, Dallas Keuchel didn't cost the Twins in development of pitchers in the system, so his six starts were a positive. If the Twins sign a Keuchel type this year and he takes 6-10 starts that Festa, Woods Richardson or maybe Canterino would take, maybe that guy is standing in the way this year. 

I think there's another category as well. One filled last year by Chi Chi González, Devin Smeltzer and Tommy Milone (to name a few ex-Twins) and others. They are pitchers that are recalled for maybe one start or two then go through the DFA process. The reason they are used is to avoid using options and 40-man spots on players and prospects. Randy Dobnak may fall into this category this year.

So IMHO the question Falvey has to ask is whether the young pitching depth is ready to help in 2024. If so, don't sign a limited upside veteran. If not, a minor league contract offer should be made to one of many available arms.

[lecroy24fan]

There are always a few of the MiLB signings late in camp when teams start setting their opening day rosters. I'm fine with waiting until then to bring one in. 

 

And I remember the year Eric Milton got hurt early in ST. Denny Hocking told the FO to go get Kenny Rogers, who, and I still will never understand why, was still available.

[jorgenswest]

I went back to 2017 and counted the number of starters with at least 8 starts and also 5 starts. If you are making 8 starts that is a quarter of the season and 5 starts you are needed for a month. Both seem relevant.

2017 7(7) 

2018 5(6)- difficult to count with use of openers. Not helpful data.

2019 5(7)

2021 7(11)

2022 7(9)

2023 6(8)

I think they need to plan for 7 starters that can expect at last a quarter season with the team and another 1 or 2 that will get a month’s worth of starts.

I think they have 6 that they can count on for a quarter season. I also think they have enough near ready options in Festa, Canterino and Wood-Richardson to cover the 5-7 starts. It would help to have one more pitcher they can count on for significant starts. If one of these pitchers is willing to sign a minor league deal it would definitely be worth a shot. The in season trade route is the more likely path to a playoff caliber starter.

[Twinsgypsy]

I agree that they should look at the possible signing of an available MLB pitcher on the rebound like Odo, but also feel that they need to really start looking at Varland to see what he can bring to the dance.  SRW is getting near to being ready for the Majors also.