Looking Back: Mike Radcliff and Terry Ryan Nailed a Tough Decision

[Seth Stohs]

In 2010, I wrote an article discussing the Twins' selection of Joe Mauer as the first overall pick in the 2001 draft instead of legendary college pitcher Mark Prior. It's fun to look back at the quotes from late, great Twins scouting chief Mike Radcliff, about that decision. At that time, he was the organization's scouting director. Ultimately, it was his call to make. Joe Mauer or Mark Prior?

Image courtesy of © Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports

Here we are, five years after the conclusion of his tremendous playing career. Joe Mauer had his #7 retired by the Twins in 2019. Last summer, he was inducted into the Twins Hall of Fame. And on Tuesday, Joe Mauer was officially named a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Let's look back to recall the difficulty of a choice the Twins got so very right.

Reminder, this is a 'cleaned up' article that was originally written by me in 2010. It is cleaned up grammatically, but I left in the details from the article, even if 13-14 years later they don't seem or sound quite right. Enjoy! 

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The Minnesota Twins went 69-93 during the 2000 season, which "earned" them the No. 1 overall pick in 2001. Several good prospects were available at the top of that draft, including Georgia Tech third baseman Mark Teixeira, East Tennessee State University pitcher Dewon Brazelton, and Baltimore high-school pitcher Gavin Floyd. Two players were generally viewed at the top of the charts, though: University of Southern California pitcher Mark Prior and Minnesota prep catcher Joe Mauer.

Current Twins director of player personnel Mike Radcliff was the Twins scouting director in 2001. In that role, he was ultimately in charge of the Twins draft. I talked to Radcliff, and he said, "We scouted and considered all of [those] players, but it ultimately came down to Mauer and Prior for our selection.”

CASE FOR MARK PRIOR
The Californian native was well-known in scouting circles. He had been the New York Yankees' first-round pick in 1998 but decided to go to USC. As the 2001 Draft approached, many were calling him the best pitching prospect ever (something that comes around about once every six or seven years).

Prior was what every scout loves to see in a pitcher. He was 6’5” and 230 pounds, and had a very projectable, ostensibly durable body type. His fastball reached into the mid-90s. He had an excellent curveball. He had impeccable control. His mechanics were fluid, a perfect example of how a pitcher needed to throw to stay healthy. In his junior season with the Trojans, Prior went 15-1 with a 1.70 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP. In 138 innings, he walked just 18 batters (and two of those were intentional) and struck out 202.

Most believed Prior would be able to contribute at the major-league level almost immediately. However, that was a notion that Prior himself shot down at the time, telling USA Today, “I still have a lot to learn. Once you get into the majors - or even the minors - the learning curve is so great. For me to make that jump straight from the college level to the major leagues is kind of far-fetched for me to believe.”

THE CASE FOR JOE MAUER
Mauer was a prep star from St. Paul's Cretin-Derham Hall High School, a catcher known for a flawless left-handed swing and strong arm. He was a terrific all-around athlete. At 6’5”, he was the National Player of the Year in football and baseball and a two-time all-state performer on the basketball court. But everyone knew that baseball was Mauer’s preferred sport. When he was 16, Mauer played for Team USA in an 18-and-under tournament in Taiwan and won the gold medal. He was the Team USA Junior National Team catcher for three years, and hit .595 in his final season. During his senior baseball season, he hit .600 with 15 home runs and 53 RBIs.

Radcliff noted that the Twins were well aware of Mauer early and followed him very closely. “Joe was on our follow list as a sophomore [in high school]. Our scouts watched him compete in all sports throughout his [high school] career. As a senior, Joe was being heavily scouted by most teams. We had someone from the Twins at all of his games that year.”

THE CONCERNS WITH MARK PRIOR
In baseball circles, the belief was that Prior was looking for $20 million to sign. There were rumors that he would not sign with the Twins if they selected him. After failing to sign other first-round picks like Tim Belcher, Jason Varitek, and Travis Lee, it would have been discouraging if the Twins could not sign another top pick, especially the first overall. At that time, there was no compensation for not signing a first-round draft pick, as there is today.

According to Radcliff, Prior’s contract demands were not a concern for the Twins. He said, “We had complete support from the GM and ownership to select anybody we deemed worthy of the number-one pick. There were going to be significant dollars to whoever was selected.”

There is an inherent risk with any pitcher for arm injuries. College pitchers are especially risky, as many rack up a crazy number of innings. What do Ben McDonald, Matt Anderson, Kris Benson, Paul Wilson, and Brian Bullington have in common? Each of those pitchers was the number-one overall pick in their draft. Each of them had significant arm injuries that kept them from reaching their potential. Add in top college pitchers (like Darren Dreifort, Kyle Sleeth, and Philip Humber) who were also highly drafted, and you can see the reality is that there is no such thing as a sure-thing pitching prospect. Even in recent years, Stephen Strasburg had to have Tommy John surgery.

Regarding Prior, Radcliff said, “There is always a risk for any pitcher to get hurt - most pitchers have had some sort of surgery or extended injury by the time they reach the major leagues. There was no more or less concern with Mark Prior before the draft.”

THE CONCERNS WITH JOE MAUER
Using a high draft pick on any high-school player carries substantial risk. Teams spend a lot of money on a signing bonus for someone they are projecting may develop into a big leaguer in three years, six years, or not at all. Drafting high-school catchers can be especially difficult, since they have to learn not only to hit at the pro level but also to catch, call a game, work with pitchers, and more.

One other concern with Joe Mauer was geographic. High-school baseball in Minnesota (and other northern states) can involve a very short season. While games are usually scheduled to start in early April, in most years, snow still covers the ground until the middle of the month. The short season leads to few opportunities for scouts to see players.

Finally, Mauer had a full-ride scholarship offer and had already committed to play football for Bobby Bowden at Florida State (where he also would have played baseball). With his athletic prowess, Mauer certainly had options on which to fall back.

THE TWINS' DECISION
After years of scouting both players, the Twins made Joe Mauer the first pick in the 2001 MLB Draft. He became the third player to be taken with the top pick by his hometown team. The Twins made their decision three days before the draft.

Radcliff was confident in the selection. “The conviction level was the highest it could possibly be for a [high school] selection. The combination of athletic ability, skill level on offense and defense, and makeup was unanimous amongst all of us who were involved with the decision. He had the best swing mechanics and hit approach that many of us had ever seen, and he profiled defensively as a Gold Glove receiver.”

"Signability" may have been a greater concern with Prior, but the Twins knew Mauer would not be cheap either. Mark Wilson was the area scout who signed Mauer. The $5.15-million bonus the Twins handed him is still one of the largest signing bonuses given to a drafted player. Because Mauer was a two-sport athlete, the Twins could spread out payment of the bonus over five years.

The Chicago Cubs selected Prior with the second pick in the draft that year. He signed late in the summer for a signing bonus of $4 million as part of a five-year, $10.5-million, major-league contract.

Back in 2009, Mark Potash of the Chicago Sun-Times opined, “What looked like an incredible break - the Twins passing on Prior and taking the more ‘signable’ Mauer with the #1-overall pick - has turned into yet another example of how fate seems to taunt the Cubs and Cubs fans.”

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In hindsight, it is easy to say that the Twins made the right choice, but it is also fun to consider what would have happened if things had gone differently. What if the Twins would have drafted (and signed) Prior instead of Mauer? Let’s consider.

… for the Twins
Let’s start with an assumption that the Twins were able to convince Prior to sign. That’s a big assumption, as Prior made it clear that he did not want to sign with the Twins before the draft. But let’s think more positively.

The Twins have a strong history of drafting high school hitters and college pitchers. That was even more the case at that time. Looking at some of the pitchers whom the Twins employed in the early-to-mid 1990s, you see a lot of college guys. Starting pitchers included names like Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, and Jeff Manship, all drafted out of college. The Twins moved each of them fairly aggressively in the minor leagues, yet compared to Prior, they were very patient. Of course, none were the #2 overall pick or even first-round picks.

The Twins likely would have had Prior begin his professional career at Ft. Myers (High-A). He would have maybe spent a half-season there, and after the Florida State League All-Star Game, he may have been promoted to New Britain (Double-A affiliate at that time). Honestly, because the Twins were in the playoff hunt, he probably would have been called up directly from Double A. If not, he would have gone to spring training in 2003 with an opportunity to make the Opening Day roster. And he probably would have.

The Twins have been known for taking care of their pitchers, especially young pitchers, at least once Ron Gardenhire took over as manager. Dusty Baker was willing to let Kerry Wood and Prior throw 120 to 140 (or more) pitches late into the season. The Twins would likely have controlled pitch and inning counts much more tightly.

Does that mean that Prior would have stayed healthy? There’s no way to know that with any certainty. It is possible that Prior had underlying arm issues that may have caused inevitable injury. Besides, two of his most severe injuries--a shoulder strain in 2003 and a broken elbow in 2005--were freak accidents, having nothing to do with workload. However, it is also possible that he could have been an All-Star, Cy Young-contending starter for the Twins from 2003 through 2008, and maybe beyond.

And think about the Twins 2006 team. That roster included the AL MVP (Justin Morneau), a top closer (Joe Nathan), and the AL Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana. They also had Michael Cuddyer, Torii Hunter, Jason Bartlett, Brad Radke, and a strong bullpen. How much could a healthy Prior have helped that team? The thought of Prior and Santana in the same rotation, along with Radke and, ideally, a healthy Francisco Liriano, is sure fun to think about. (Of course, the AL Batting title winner (Mauer) would not have been on the team in this scenario.)

… for the Cubs
Had the Twins taken Prior, the Cubs would have drafted Georgia Tech third baseman Mark Teixeira, who was said to be looking for a $15-million deal after the draft. (With the Rangers, as the fifth pick, he signed a four-year, $9.5-million big league contract with a $4.5 million bonus.) Teixeira would have moved quickly through the Cubs farm system and put up numbers similar to those he put up with the Rangers, Braves, Angels, and Yankees in his career. But would the Cubs have kept Aramis Ramírez or acquired Derrek Lee? Would they have gone after Alfonso Soriano? I would venture to guess that Teixeira would have been a building block for the Cubs and would likely not have played for as many teams in his career.

… for Joe Mauer
It makes a lot of sense that the Tampa Bay Devil Rays would have selected Joe Mauer with the third pick in the 2001 draft. The Rays were a team that was constantly building at that time. They had a lot of early draft picks that they used to select several talented high school players.

They took Carl Crawford in 1999, Rocco Baldelli in 2000, BJ Upton in 2002, and Delmon Young with the first-overall pick in the 2003 draft. Mauer likely would have thrived with the Devil Rays, had this scenario played out.

While he batted third through most of his career with the Twins, you have to assume that Joe Maddon may not have been afraid to bat him leadoff. As earlier adopters of analytics, the Rays would have loved Mauer’s on-base percentage at the top of the lineup. Assuming health, it’s hard to believe that Mauer would not have been equally successful with Tampa.

The economic reality is that the Rays would not have been able to keep him through free agency. The Twins actually extended him for two years beyond free agency before giving him the big contract. The Twins had to do the deal for various reasons, including the new stadium, his performance on and off the field, and being a hometown player. 

If the Rays had pushed him to the big leagues as quickly as the Twins did (likely), he probably would have been traded before or after his 2009 season. At that time, Jorge Posada and Jason Varitek were on their last legs with the Yankees and Red Sox, respectively, so there would have been a big market, and the Rays could have received a lot for Mauer. Mauer would have gone to a team that made the playoffs frequently and had some great playoff and maybe World Series moments. Assuming health, he would have received a significantly larger contract than the Twins gave him.

CONCLUSIONS
The Twins had to make a huge decision in 2001. Should they draft the All-American, can’t-miss college pitcher from a baseball-rich college program? Or, should they take the tremendous high school athlete with the full-ride scholarship to Florida State for football and baseball - a guy from their backyard with the perfect swing, a strong arm, and great makeup?

The Twins chose Mauer, and have never looked back or questioned it. Fortunately for the state of Minnesota, Mauer has proven the Twins right over time, regardless of what Prior did in his career, by being one of the best players in baseball. Even if Prior somehow goes on to win three or four Cy Young Awards, the Twins’ selection is justified. It was not a case of the team being “cheap”: Mauer’s signing bonus still ranks among the highest of all time (in part because of baseball going to the slotting system in the draft). It was not a case of picking the hometown kid over a better player (as the Padres did in 2004 when they picked Matt Bush instead of Justin Verlander).

Scouting and the baseball draft can be such an inexact science. The Twins have a solid track record in drafting and player development, but no team is always right. In 2001, the Twins had a difficult decision and made the right choice.

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[tarheeltwinsfan]

Fun and interesting read, Seth. I like to play the what if game. However, that is what GM's do every day. It's a tough job to predict the future.  I do like the caution with which Falvey and Levine operate.

[Fatbat]

Awesome read! The what if game is always fun!  Just last years draft brought us tons of what if’s. Moving up in the lottery to start thru the choice of Skene’s at #1.  and so on through #5 Jenkins.  Everyone of those fab 5 could have gone in different spots. Someday we will have to go back and do some what ifs in that ‘23 draft class. 

[big dog]

 

Fun speculation. However, without Joe the Twins probably wouldn't have traded AJ, would they? In that case, they wouldn't have had Nathan or Liriano.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Fun retrospective Seth.  The Twins definitely got it right when they picked Mauer, but it definitely shows the uncertainty at the top of the draft board.  What looks really great for a team (Pryor to the Cubs) can wind up being a big nothing in the end.  The Twins have had that happen as well so it's nice to see the sun shine on them once in a while.

[ashbury]

Number One pick overall, and they snagged the one Hall of Famer.  Good job.

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Fun retrospective Seth.  The Twins definitely got it right when they picked Mauer, but it definitely shows the uncertainty at the top of the draft board.  What looks really great for a team (Pryor to the Cubs) can wind up being a big nothing in the end.

Mark Prior wound up with the second most Wins Above Average (b-r.com version) for his career among all pitchers taken in that draft.  He weren't a big nothing.

[Fatbat]

48 minutes ago, ashbury said:

Mark Prior wound up with the second most Wins Above Average (b-r.com version) for his career among all pitchers taken in that draft.  He weren't a big nothing.

Health derailed his career or he may have been a real big deal. 

[jmlease1]

5 hours ago, big dog said:

 

Fun speculation. However, without Joe the Twins probably wouldn't have traded AJ, would they? In that case, they wouldn't have had Nathan or Liriano.

Seems unlikely. AJ was available because Mauer flew up the minor league ranks and showed he was ready early (much like we're dreaming about with Walker Jenkins). So Mauer is also at least partially responsible for one the great trades in Twins history.

I did enjoy seeing the nasty comments from Barreiro that he put into his column the day after the draft trashing Twins management for selecting Mauer again. Those have aged well, lol.

[Sean.h]

If Mauer was not on the Twins, they might not have traded AJ for Liriano and Nathan, so Santana+Prior+Liriano+Nathan would never have materialized :)

[Whitey333]

Great article Seth!  Well researched and written.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

22 hours ago, ashbury said:

Mark Prior wound up with the second most Wins Above Average (b-r.com version) for his career among all pitchers taken in that draft.  He weren't a big nothing.

Nothing was probably too strong, but he never became what he was projected and assumed to become.  That may have been my anti-Cubs bias showing through a little, but his career wasn’t that memorable.  Excellent for one year and pretty good for two years doesn’t really compare to what Mauer wound up doing.