How the Twins Handled a Banned Shift in Year One

[Ted Schwerzler]

Last season brought some significantly drastic rule changes to Major League Baseball. We saw pitch clocks and newly sized bases. We also saw a shift ban for the first time in the sport's history. How did the Minnesota Twins handle it, though?

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

When Rob Manfred announced that Major League Baseball would ban the shift beginning with the 2023 regular season, the expectation was that a handful of players might find enhanced opportunities for production. The sport wanted to increase run production in an age where pitching has never been better. Mandating where players can stand throughout the field is something new, and it was undoubtedly set to impact all clubs.

In December, Matt Trueblood talked about how Rocco Baldelli’s club employed their defensive alignment throughout the season. He determined that Minnesota was the shadiest club in all of baseball. That piece focused on the defensive side, but how did their offense fare? After all, Max Kepler has long been talked about as a player who should be expected to benefit from defensive position restrictions, even though that boost might have been minimal.

A year ago, the Twins had a 41.8% pull rate. That tracked as the 11th-highest rate in baseball and was the 7th-highest mark in the American League. Those numbers don’t put them in the upper tier when it comes to yanking the ball down the lines, but it has been something they have been noted to incorporate as part of their process. In 2022, the Twins pulled the ball virtually an identical 41.9% of the time. Still, that number was the sixth highest across baseball, trailing only the Rangers and Astros among American League competition.

Despite drastic positioning rule changes over the past two seasons, the Twins didn’t deviate from where their players attempted to put the ball in play. The results, looking at the batting average on balls in play, show a slight bump in outcomes, though. During 2022, Minnesota owned a .295 BABIP, keeping them just outside the top 10 across the sport. Last season, Minnesota’s BABIP rose to .304 and bumped them up to round out the top 10. That change is minimal on the surface but certainly can be impactful throughout an entire season.

Not unexpectedly, it wasn’t just the Twins that saw a rise in BABIP year-over-year. In 2023, there were 13 teams with a BABIP north of .300, while 2022 saw just seven teams reach that plateau. With the league looking to increase offense and generate more action on batted balls, it’s hard to argue against doubling the number of teams seeing success.

Another area of note when it comes to the shift is launch angle. Lifting the ball over defenders has always been the most straightforward way to avoid outs, and it’s why putting the ball on the ground remains the least reasonable way to generate offense. The Twins saw that in a big way last season, thanks to a strong year from Max Kepler. Traditionally, a guy who had spoken about driving the ball into the ground, his desire to lift the baseball generated his best OPS+ (121) since 2019.

In 2022, the Twins put up just a 13.1-degree launch angle as a team. In 2023, Baledlli’s club owned a 14.5-degree launch angle. A launch angle of less than 10 degrees will almost always result in a ground ball, whereas one between 10-25 degrees is often a line drive. Depending on exit velocity, the optimal launch angle would be something that lands between 15-30 degrees, and that’s where a batter will see the most success. Although the offense was stagnant at times a year ago, the consistency with which Minnesota put balls in play with ideal launch angles was something that could beat the shift, even had it not been removed.

As The Athletic’s Dan Hayes notes above in a conversation with MLB.com’s Mike Petriello, the shift could undoubtedly be seen as something of a mental game. Due to positioning, the defense attempted to get a batter to act in a way they otherwise wouldn’t. We immediately saw this during spring training when the Boston Red Sox vacated left field as Joey Gallo stepped up to bat. Despite leaving one-third of the outfield open, they asked the Twins hitter to operate in a way he otherwise would not have within the box.

Thankfully for the Twins, more often than not, they stuck to their process a year ago. Although defenders were now told where they had to play, Minnesota continued to pull the ball and saw a greater level of success from it. Beyond that, though, they also looked for more “A” swings and lifted pitches for an opportunity to find gaps or put the baseball over the wall.

To what extent Major League Baseball is happy with the outcomes of year one since banning the shift remains to be seen. How the game continues to be impacted in the future will also be an interesting case study. For Minnesota, though, continuing the same process while putting added air under the baseball is something that they should expect to benefit from in 2024.

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[jmlease1]

If Max Kepler is still on this roster Opening Day, please please keep using your "A" swing, Max. Hit the ball in the air, take your walks, have a good season. It'll turn better results for him than trying to push him into hitting the ball the other way. 

I don't know if the shift ban really had all that much impact, but even if had a little to improve offense, fine. It probably made the game a bit more aesthetically pleasing and kept the pace up (one less thing to do between hitters as guys shuffled around). I won't miss the people arguing that your team's best hitter should bunt their way on base because of the shift either.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

If Max Kepler is still on this roster Opening Day, please please keep using your "A" swing, Max. Hit the ball in the air, take your walks, have a good season. It'll turn better results for him than trying to push him into hitting the ball the other way. 

I don't know if the shift ban really had all that much impact, but even if had a little to improve offense, fine. It probably made the game a bit more aesthetically pleasing and kept the pace up (one less thing to do between hitters as guys shuffled around). I won't miss the people arguing that your team's best hitter should bunt their way on base because of the shift either.

To me there were about 3 tweaks that occurred and 1 other point that made his season better.  

1. Started swinging at balls earlier in counts,  Often found better pitches and was able to make better contact. 

2. He is letting the ball get a little further in the zone, which is spraying the ball a lot more.   (also with good contact)

3. As stated above in your post, Kepler seems more willing to just hit the ball hard every swing now rather than take defensive swings that often produce week contact and are easy outs.  

4. He was fighting through injuries early in the season.   I hope something similar happens for Correa and Buxton this year :).  

The only caveat is he faced much weaker pitching in the 2nd half.  I still expect a very strong season and something more similar to the 2nd half of the season than the 1st half.  Even still an OPS+ of 149  in the second half leaves credence that Kepler may have figured something out.  

[djvang]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Given all the deserved HOF talk around Joe Mauer, I was thinking how the shift rule would have benefited him had he still been playing.  How many line drives to left-center were stolen from him via the shift.  I think he would have excelled in that area last year with the shift limitations.

The shift rule doesn't apply to outfielders.

[Guest]

5 hours ago, djvang said:

The shift rule doesn't apply to outfielders.

Yeah, but it restricted an infielder from playing in the outfield.

[JD-TWINS]

21 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

To me there were about 3 tweaks that occurred and 1 other point that made his season better.  

1. Started swinging at balls earlier in counts,  Often found better pitches and was able to make better contact. 

2. He is letting the ball get a little further in the zone, which is spraying the ball a lot more.   (also with good contact)

3. As stated above in your post, Kepler seems more willing to just hit the ball hard every swing now rather than take defensive swings that often produce week contact and are easy outs.  

4. He was fighting through injuries early in the season.   I hope something similar happens for Correa and Buxton this year :).  

The only caveat is he faced much weaker pitching in the 2nd half.  I still expect a very strong season and something more similar to the 2nd half of the season than the 1st half.  Even still an OPS+ of 149  in the second half leaves credence that Kepler may have figured something out.  

Agree - things changed for him…….I’m leaning into your #3 & #4 above. He started attacking with the approach to just sting the ball & he got healthy, that can’t be underestimated.

[old nurse]

Gordon and Miranda injured,, Sanchez land Cave et go, Arraez and Urshela traded. Celestino did not make it back. Comparing the two years is kind of pointless when almost half of the AB from 22 were not a factor for 23

[joefish]

I think it's pretty  difficult to make significant swing adjustments when guys are throwing in the upper 90's. 

Spin and translate the numbers any way you can. Hitting is tough.