Running Down the Hall (of Fame Ballot): 2024 Edition

[Cody Christie]

Joe Mauer is in his first year of eligibility for the National Baseball Hall of Fame and joins a crowded ballot. Who makes the cut for the Class of 2024?

 

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Every year, there is plenty to debate when it comes to baseball's highest honor. Who should (or shouldn’t) be elected to Cooperstown’s hallowed halls? Last year, Scott Rolen was the lone player elected by the BBWAA, with Todd Helton falling 11 votes shy of induction. This year’s ballot is full of question marks, and there is a chance for multiple players to be elected when results are announced in the coming days.

As a reminder, the National Baseball Hall of Fame specifies that “[o]nly active and honorary members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America, who have been active baseball writers for at least ten (10) years, shall be eligible to vote.” In order to receive a vote, a writer must have been a member of the BBWAA for at least a decade. Voters can select up to 10 players per ballot, making it difficult if a voter feels there are more than that many worthy candidates up for election.

Below are my predictions for the 2024 Hall of Fame ballot, broken into three categories, including the Class of 2024, Future Inductees, and May Never Get In (But Still On My Ballot). 

Class of 2024
Adrian Beltre (1st Ballot)
Beltré is a lock to be elected on his first ballot and has a chance (however remote) to be the second player elected unanimously, after Mariano Rivera. He is a five-time Gold Glove winner, and finished his career with 477 home runs and 3,166 hits. There were six seasons in which he finished in the top six for MVP voting, and he ranks second all-time in WAR runs above average from fielding, behind Brooks Robinson.

Jay Jaffe's Jaffe Average WAR Score (JAWS) is a way to measure a player’s Hall of Fame worthiness. It averages their career WAR and their seven-year peak WAR. Beltré ranks fourth all-time among third basemen, and the top 11 are enshrined in Cooperstown. 

Billy Wagner (2023 Results: 68.1%)
Relief pitchers are an underrepresented group in Cooperstown, with only eight Hall of Famers at the position. According to JAWS, the top five relievers have been elected, and Wagner ranks sixth. He collected 422 saves, while racking up 1,196 strikeouts with a 2.31 ERA. He was selected to seven All-Star Games and played on seven playoff teams. In the Live Ball Era, only Rivera has a lower ERA with a minimum of 705 innings pitched. Wagner is in his ninth year on the ballot, so he must be elected over the subsequent two voting cycles, or he'll fall off the ballot.

Todd Helton is also on track to be inducted this year, but I wouldn’t include him on my ballot because of his off-field issues. He has been arrested multiple times for DUI, where his blood alcohol level was dangerously high. Other voters will select him, though, and he will get his moment in Cooperstown later this summer. 

Future Inductees
Carlos Beltran (2023 Results: 46.5%)
Beltrán wasn't elected on his first chance last winter, partially because of his ties to the 2017 Astros’ cheating scandal. He was a nine-time All-Star, a three-time Gold Glove winner, and won the AL Rookie of the Year Award in 1999. In 20 seasons, he hit .279/.350/.486 with 435 home runs and 1,587 RBI. He’s among 38 players in AL/NL history to have more than 1,500 runs scored and runs batted in, and 29 of other 37 have been enshrined in the Hall of Fame. He is also one of five players with 500 doubles, 400 home runs, and 300 stolen bases. It will take time for the writers to forgive him for leading the sign-stealing scandal, but he will be inducted on a future ballot. 

Joe Mauer (1st Ballot)
Twins Daily has had plenty of discussion regarding Mauer’s candidacy for the Hall of Fame. For his career, he hit .306/.388/.439 with a 124 OPS+, on his way to winning three batting titles and five Silver Sluggers. He was the first American League catcher to win a batting title and the only backstop since the great Josh Gibson to win three. Defensively, he won three consecutive Gold Gloves from 2008-10 and was elected to six All-Star Games. His 2009 MVP season is arguably the best offensive season from a catcher in baseball history. Mauer finished the season hitting .365/.444/.587 with a 171 OPS+. He set a major-league record for highest batting average by a catcher and became the first repeat batting champion in nearly a decade. Mauer will likely finish short of induction in his first year on the ballot, before being inducted next season. 

Chase Utley (1st Ballot)
Utley joins Mauer and Beltré in a solid class of first-ballot names to consider. Utley ranks 12th all-time among second basemen in JAWS, with nine of the 11 names ahead of him already inducted. He was a six-time All-Star, and helped the Phillies win the 2008 World Series. Utley provided value in all parts of the game, with a career 117 OPS+ and terrific defense at second base. He collected 154 stolen bases, and his 87.5% success rate is the best of all time in MLB, with a minimum of 100 swipes. Voters will support him, but it likely takes multiple appearances on the ballot to be elected.

Andruw Jones has slowly been gaining support on recent ballots, and he is on pace to finish with more than 60% of the vote in the current voting cycle. However, in 2012, he was arrested for a graphic domestic assault on his former wife. He will likely get in on a future vote, but I am not including him on my ballot. 

May Never Get In (But Still On My Ballot)

Torii Hunter (2023 Results: 6.9%)
Hunter has survived on the ballot, despite receiving less than 7% percent of the vote in his first three voting cycles. (Any player who receives less than 5 percent of votes cast is removed from future ballots.) He won nine consecutive Gold Gloves from 2001-09, and was selected to five All-Star teams. He posted a career .793 OPS at the plate, earning two Silver Slugger Awards. He was an elite defender in the first half of his career who redeveloped himself into a strong hitter and fine corner outfielder later. Hunter holds a special place in the hearts of Twins fans, so he’d get my vote, even if he won’t be elected.

Gary Sheffield (2023 Results: 55%) 
Sheffield is in his 10th and final year of eligibility. He hit 509 career home runs, including 30 homers in eight different seasons. He was a nine-time All-Star, a five-time Silver Slugger, and a batting champion. He finished with an OPS+ of at least 130 in 14 different seasons. His support has been lacking in previous votes because his name appeared in the Mitchell report, and because he spent one winter working out with Barry Bonds. Also, his defense was atrocious. Still, few players of the era could match him for sheer offensive danger. 

Final Ballot (in alphabetical order)
1. Carlos Beltrán
2. Adrian Beltré
3. Torii Hunter
4. Joe Mauer
5. Gary Sheffield
6. Billy Wagner
7. Chase Utley

To see the complete 2024 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot, CLICK HERE. On Jan. 23, the BBWAA will announce the 2024 Hall of Fame balloting results. Any players chosen will be inducted during Hall of Fame Weekend from July 19-22, 2024. 

Who makes your Hall of Fame ballot? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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[jmlease1]

I loved Torii Hunter, but...he's not a Hall of Famer in my book. Only 5 all-star appearances, but probably only deserved 4. A lot of good seasons, but never had a truly great year. It's notable that he only finished top 10 for MVP once, and really shouldn't have been that high. I look at guys like Lofton and Edmonds and have trouble seeing a reasonable argument to put Hunter in when both of them are on the outside. Lofton had a much higher peak, and was a better defender with much better speed that he converted on the basepaths to be an elite base-stealer. Edmonds was a much better hitter; Hunter was healthier, not better.

I hope Mauer gets in on the first ballot; I think he's got an outside chance, but will definitely make it into the Hall. And he should: he was an elite catcher, one of the best hitting catchers of all-time who also provided good defense. 3 batting titles at catcher? Good luck seeing that again. The peak was so high that voters (non-MN fan edition) aren't going to hold the lessened version who held down 1B through the end of his career. (though he should have gotten a GG at 1B, which would have been a heck of an accomplishment)

Utley is the hardest one for me to judge. The counting stats are pretty low, reflective of his relative lack of longevity and injuries, but also of how poorly he played the last 4 seasons. His peak is really high...but also relies on a ton of defensive value, which is a little complicated for a player who never won a Gold Glove. Now, GG voting has frequently been a mess...but it's also pretty rare for a player who was one of the best at their position to be completely shut out for their entire career, and it's not like there was an automatic choice out there that was blocking him off: the award was going to Orlando Hudson, Brandon Phillips, and Luis Castillo. Fine players, but not exactly Sandberg, Morgan, and Mazeroski. So if Utley was so great defensively...how did no one notice? Defense is still the hardest thing to quantify accurately, IMHO, so I get a little nervous when there seems to be this kind of of disconnect.

[mnfireman]

So, Helton and his 2 DUI's doesn't get your vote, nor does Jones and his domestic assault, but Sheffield does. If you are going to sit on your high horse casting judgments you at least need to be consistent.

Per Wikipedia:

In 1986, Sheffield was arrested alongside his uncle, Dwight Gooden, and fellow Tampa baseball player Vance Lovelace and charged with resisting arrest with violence and battery on a police officer. He pleaded no contest in January 1987 and was sentenced to two years probation.^[35]

In October 1987, while still on probation, Sheffield was arrested and charged with driving while intoxicated and related offenses. Those charges were eventually consolidated into one reckless driving charge. His probation was extended for an additional 18 months.^[36]

On December 5, 1993, Sheffield was arrested after being clocked driving a Ferrari Testarossa 110 miles per hour (180 km/h) on Interstate 4 in Florida and failing a breathalyzer test. In May 1994, he pleaded no contest to reckless driving and was sentenced again to nine months of probation and 40 hours of community service.^[37]

[Bodie]

Saw a BHOF vote tracking site over the weekend that has Joe Mauer at just over 80% of the publicly released votes.  Those "known" votes represent just over 11% of the ballots. 

Hope it holds around that percentage holds and Twins' fans can celebrate with the Mauers!!!

[DJL44]

Quote

Relief pitchers are an underrepresented group in Cooperstown, with only eight Hall of Famers at the position

Completely disagree with this one. Relievers are an overrepresented group in Cooperstown with relievers being elected instead of many vastly superior starting pitchers. Billy Wagner in while Johan Santana is out is a travesty. I would prefer only three pure relievers were elected - Rivera, Wilhelm and Gossage. Eckersley makes it based on how much value he provided as a starting pitcher. Gossage is actually borderline.

[mikelink45]

I would put out this ballot - in order as far as deserving the vote

1. Beltre
2. Mauer - his peak years were long enough and great enough that he deserves to be in.  Injuries have kept out other, but to me his peak was long enough that like Kirby he would have gotten in if he had retired immediately
3. Beltran - We are going to get many Astros in and if we can accept Correa, we should vote for Carlos.

That is it for me. Wagner would be #4 but I am not enamored with RP.

Sheffield's behavior coupled with his horrible defense loses me.  I like a complete player.  That is another reason I have never been a Jones advocate.  Not sure I buy the greatest CF fielder rhetoric and he fell off a cliff offensively without the injury that Joe had.

Utley never ever felt like a HOF to me.  Good player yes not getting my vote.  I am  a small Hall person.

That said I expect all of them to get in eventually.  

[sweetmusicviola16]

Hall of Fame is a Hall of Sham until Pete Rose is enshrined. Baseball writers are happy to vote for the cheaters they want to vote for. Barry, A Rod, McGuire,Clemens are all HOF and will never be elected.  But Beltran, Correa will likely be in someday. Hypocrites.

A guy like Baines is not HOF.

As for Joe Mauer, he did plenty enough as a Catcher to warrant being in the Hall. Whether its as a first ballot or not means little to me.

[DJL44]

My ballot (if I could vote): Abreu, Beltran, Beltre, Buehrle, Mauer, Pettitte, Ramirez, Rodriguez, Sheffield, Utley. 

I'd probably vote for Andruw Jones too but they only give you 10 ballot slots. I'm iffy on Helton.

No way on Billy Wagner or Torii Hunter. You'd need to double the size of the Hall of Fame to justify voting for either of them.

[DJL44]

43 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Hall of Fame is a Hall of Sham until Pete Rose is enshrined.

If they put Pete Rose in the Hall of Fame they might as well burn the place to the ground.

[Jeff K]

4 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

I loved Torii Hunter, but...he's not a Hall of Famer in my book. Only 5 all-star appearances, but probably only deserved 4. A lot of good seasons, but never had a truly great year. It's notable that he only finished top 10 for MVP once, and really shouldn't have been that high. I look at guys like Lofton and Edmonds and have trouble seeing a reasonable argument to put Hunter in when both of them are on the outside. Lofton had a much higher peak, and was a better defender with much better speed that he converted on the basepaths to be an elite base-stealer. Edmonds was a much better hitter; Hunter was healthier, not better.

I hope Mauer gets in on the first ballot; I think he's got an outside chance, but will definitely make it into the Hall. And he should: he was an elite catcher, one of the best hitting catchers of all-time who also provided good defense. 3 batting titles at catcher? Good luck seeing that again. The peak was so high that voters (non-MN fan edition) aren't going to hold the lessened version who held down 1B through the end of his career. (though he should have gotten a GG at 1B, which would have been a heck of an accomplishment)

Utley is the hardest one for me to judge. The counting stats are pretty low, reflective of his relative lack of longevity and injuries, but also of how poorly he played the last 4 seasons. His peak is really high...but also relies on a ton of defensive value, which is a little complicated for a player who never won a Gold Glove. Now, GG voting has frequently been a mess...but it's also pretty rare for a player who was one of the best at their position to be completely shut out for their entire career, and it's not like there was an automatic choice out there that was blocking him off: the award was going to Orlando Hudson, Brandon Phillips, and Luis Castillo. Fine players, but not exactly Sandberg, Morgan, and Mazeroski. So if Utley was so great defensively...how did no one notice? Defense is still the hardest thing to quantify accurately, IMHO, so I get a little nervous when there seems to be this kind of of disconnect.

I agree and add that I would/could not vote for Sheffield.

[sweetmusicviola16]

41 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

If they put Pete Rose in the Hall of Fame they might as well burn the place to the ground.

I get it. We are OK with some cheaters, but not some cheaters. So I  agree fully, might as well burn the place to the ground.

[DJL44]

15 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

I get it. We are OK with some cheaters, but not some cheaters. So I  agree fully, might as well burn the place to the ground.

There is a big difference between people cheating to win (especially before steroid use had an actual penalty) and people like Rose who violated the only rule that comes with a lifetime ban because it could destroy the entire league. A-Rod got caught and served his suspension. Rose should have to serve his (a lifetime ban) as well.

[jmlease1]

I'm a little baffled by the opposition to relievers generally and Billy Wagner in particular. As noted, there's only 8 relievers in the Hall to date and it's been a pretty notable position and recognizable in the modern context for 50 years. And it's not something that any decent starter can just shift into and succeed; we've seen plenty of guys fail at it. We've also seen more and more that relievers who are consistently great year over year are actually quite a bit more rare (and definitely more valuable). And Billy Wagner was pretty dang great. The man really only had one bad season as a closer (2000) and dominated in his last season at age 38. Has there ever been a better lefty reliever?

Wagner dominated everybody, lefty or righty, home or away. He dominated when he was young and old, struck out a gazillion batters. If relievers are a position in baseball and they're eligible for the Hall, then Wagner should be in.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

I'm a little baffled by the opposition to relievers generally and Billy Wagner in particular. As noted, there's only 8 relievers in the Hall to date and it's been a pretty notable position and recognizable in the modern context for 50 years. And it's not something that any decent starter can just shift into and succeed; we've seen plenty of guys fail at it. We've also seen more and more that relievers who are consistently great year over year are actually quite a bit more rare (and definitely more valuable). And Billy Wagner was pretty dang great. The man really only had one bad season as a closer (2000) and dominated in his last season at age 38. Has there ever been a better lefty reliever?

Wagner dominated everybody, lefty or righty, home or away. He dominated when he was young and old, struck out a gazillion batters. If relievers are a position in baseball and they're eligible for the Hall, then Wagner should be in.

Relieving IS a role almost any decent starter can shift into and succeed. That is exactly how nearly every relief pitcher gets the role. It's how Billy Wagner got the role.

Pitcher is a position. The Hall of Fame should be focused on electing the best pitchers. Starting pitchers keep their job in the rotation because they are better at pitching than relievers.

Would any general manager from the 2000s trade Johan Santana straight up for Billy Wagner? Of course not. Santana threw over 1000 more effective innings than Wagner. Santana was twice as valuable as Billy Wagner. It's baffling that Wagner would be enshrined instead of Santana. The same goes for two pitchers on the current ballot - Mark Buehrle and Andy Pettitte. Any GM building a club would rather have an ace starter like Buehrle or Pettitte instead of a reliever like Wagner.

That doesn't even get into Wagner's horrible postseason performance or his habit of trashing his teammates in the press. He is not qualified for the Hall of Fame.

[Schmoeman5]

After reading the post and some of the comments I was left wondering. Is it the Hall of Fame, or is it the Hall of the most popular? Or the Hall of most law abiding? That's why there is I believe only 1 person elected unanimously. It's a joke. Jeter was left off a ballot because 1 person didn't like him or thought he was overrated, whatever. Beltre will probably be left off a ballot or 2 for some perceived slight as well. He wasn't flashy or overpowering enough. He just hit .300 and hit 20+ homers a year for an entire career. That's HOF material. Mauers numbers stack up favorably as well. Beltran was really good when he was healthy. But I think the trash cans are still too fresh in the writers memory. Wagner was dominant for a good chunk of his career. Sheffield was too. What is the baseline of a real good player vs a great one? That's the hard part. Leave the rest out of it. 

[mikelink45]

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

My ballot (if I could vote): Abreu, Beltran, Beltre, Buehrle, Mauer, Pettitte, Ramirez, Rodriguez, Sheffield, Utley. 

I'd probably vote for Andruw Jones too but they only give you 10 ballot slots. I'm iffy on Helton.

No way on Billy Wagner or Torii Hunter. You'd need to double the size of the Hall of Fame to justify voting for either of them.

wow are you a BIG Hall guy

[DJL44]

25 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

wow are you a BIG Hall guy

I'd say I'm a Hall of Fame sized Hall of Fame guy. All of those players meet the historical standards for enshrinement. I don't see a reason to punish the players from the current generation and hold them to a higher standard than players from previous generations. Abreu was better than Oliva, for example.

[UK Twin]

There's a reason why catchers hardly ever win batting titles or MVP honors. Because it's the hardest position to play. Certainly on the body. What Mauer did in his prime was incredible. I really hope he gets in first time.

[sweetmusicviola16]

On 12/26/2023 at 3:03 PM, Schmoeman5 said:

After reading the post and some of the comments I was left wondering. Is it the Hall of Fame, or is it the Hall of the most popular? Or the Hall of most law abiding? That's why there is I believe only 1 person elected unanimously. It's a joke. Jeter was left off a ballot because 1 person didn't like him or thought he was overrated, whatever. Beltre will probably be left off a ballot or 2 for some perceived slight as well. He wasn't flashy or overpowering enough. He just hit .300 and hit 20+ homers a year for an entire career. That's HOF material. Mauers numbers stack up favorably as well. Beltran was really good when he was healthy. But I think the trash cans are still too fresh in the writers memory. Wagner was dominant for a good chunk of his career. Sheffield was too. What is the baseline of a real good player vs a great one? That's the hard part. Leave the rest out of it. 

Good points. Bonds, Clemens, Sosa, McGuire, etc should all be in the HOF.  Stargell, Mays, Scmidt etc were accused of amphetimine use but they are all in. They should be. Gaylord Perry was caught cheating on the field. He is in, and should be. Bonds, Sosa, Clemens, McGuire, Rose are likley some of the most arrogant dicks around. But why was the HOF become a popularity contest? But because of "banning" these guys from the HOF, a few years ago I was less than 30 minutes from Cooperstown but I kept on driving w/o stopping. They have greatly lowered the HOF for me.

AS for Rose, since he's banned from the HOF why do we stop there? Take away his hit record too. Put 4,265 at 0.Take away his 400 and some managerial wins too then. I'll repeat, it's all hypocritical as ****.

[DJL44]

36 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

AS for Rose, since he's banned from the HOF why do we stop there? Take away his hit record too. Put 4,265 at 0.Take away his 400 and some managerial wins too then. I'll repeat, it's all hypocritical as ****.

That is nonsensical. Are you going to go back to those games, turn the hits into outs and re-score the game?

Pete Rose at the top of the all-time hits list is just a record of what happened during baseball games. Any honors you ascribe to it is entirely your own.

[sweetmusicviola16]

24 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

That is nonsensical. Are you going to go back to those games, turn the hits into outs and re-score the game?

Pete Rose at the top of the all-time hits list is just a record of what happened during baseball games. Any honors you ascribe to it is entirely your own.

I fail to see how it is nonsense at all. Roger Maris wore an * next to 61 for years. Years. An * can easily be put next to 4,256 as well. His MVP and ROY could just as easily be taken away. Based on the HOF ban they should be.

Pete Rose is an HOF player. Period. He is one of the most arrogant unrepentent bung holes to ever don the uniform. I have zero issue with him never being in a front office or on the field again. But he did things as a player that no other player has ever done and quite possibly will never be surpassed. Pete Rose is an HOF player. Joe Mauer is an HOF player. But if I had one vote for 2024 HOF and was allowed to do so it would be for Rose, and it's not even close. Later.

 

[DJL44]

16 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

I fail to see how it is nonsense at all. Roger Maris wore an * next to 61 for years. Years. An * can easily be put next to 4,256 as well. His MVP and ROY could just as easily be taken away. Based on the HOF ban they should be.

Pete Rose is an HOF player. Period. He is one of the most arrogant unrepentent bung holes to ever don the uniform. I have zero issue with him never being in a front office or on the field again. But he did things as a player that no other player has ever done and quite possibly will never be surpassed. Pete Rose is an HOF player. Joe Mauer is an HOF player. But if I had one vote for 2024 HOF and was allowed to do so it would be for Rose, and it's not even close. Later.

Pete Rose signed a lifetime ban from baseball. He's no longer eligible.

[Heiny]

My personal thoughts:  Sheffield-500 homers automatically puts him in the Hall.  Pete Rose-one of the best to ever play the game, suffered enough, put him in before he dies.  He deserves it.  Joe Mauer-what he did as a catcher, there is no question in my mind he deserves to be in the Hall, first ballot.  This is the "Baseball Hall Of Fame",  not the "Goody two shoes Hall Of Fame".  Give me the rest of the deserved HOF'ers for what they did on the field also.  Bonds, Clemens, McGwire, et-al.  I dislike the idea that BBWAA get to judge whose behavior outside of baseball qualifies them for the Hall.  Just because they have been a writer for 10 years?  I don't think that is enough of a qualification.  Do we check their DWI records before they get a vote?  Do we check their spelling and punctuation before they get a vote?  I have been an avid fan of all levels of baseball for 60+ years.  I think that is more of a qualification that ten years as a writer.  So, in conclusion, my respect has been very diminished for the Hall of Fame.  Or at least the voting process.