Keith Law on Max Kepler

[Seth Stohs]

The Twins had an option on Max Kepler's 2024 season at about $10 million. 

However, he is included in Keith Law's Top 50 Free Agents rankings at The Athletic. 

I obviously won't post all that Law writes, but here is how he ends the section on Kepler: 

What do you think? I think most would agree that the Twins were going to pick up Kepler's option already anyway, but I would have put him more in the 3 year, $36 million range for a deal... not a 4-year, $80 million or even 5 years, 120 million range is crazy. 

Sonny Gray, Kepler, and Kenta Maeda are in the top 25. List also includes #OldFriends such as Mitch Garver, Kyle Gibson, Eddie Rosario, etc. 

[gman]

I can see the Twins picking up the option, but I would think they would more likely trade him than sign him for a 3 year contract..

[baul0010]

8 minutes ago, gman said:

I can see the Twins picking up the option, but I would think they would more likely trade him than sign him for a 3 year contract..

I think that is the most accurate assessment too.  If he's valued at 20 to 25 million, picking up his contract for 10 mil and trading him would be the best option.  A team that would sign him for 20 mil, I would think, would see that 10 mil savings as a nice benefit.  

[2wins87]

The contract projection certainly argues against the idea that he will be a free agent, so it seems like kind of an oversight that he's even on the list.  It also makes a pretty strong case that he would be a likely QO candidate at the end of the year, which would also factor in to his potential trade value.  I'm not sure the Twins would have much interest in a $20 million salary next year when their obligations on other players rise, so that might align their incentives even further toward a trade during the offseason when the other team would still be able to have the QO option.

The projection does seem a bit rich still, though it might speak to how much his defensive value has been underrated by fans (and awards).

If he were a free agent, I think 4 years sounds about right, so 5 wouldn't be out of the question, I would have thought he'd be closer to $20 million than $25 though, and probably below it.  The first name I thought of that could be somewhat comparable was Michael Conforto; he got 2 years at $18 million coming off a lost season to injury.

I always feel like I'm terrible at guessing contracts.  But maybe I would have put Kepler at 4 years at $16 million ($64 total)?

[Linus]

The Twins will absolutely pick up his option. Because I would not extend him I would trade him sometime between now and the next trade deadline. 

[Brandon]

I guess he is planning on the Yankees overpaying to get Kepler since he is left handed and with Power, I think they would hope to get the same transformation out of him they got out of O’Neil after they got him a generation ago.

If he continues to hit next season we should offer a QO and get the comp pick when he signs an above 50 million contract giving us the best possible draft pick outcome available.  

[Dman]

Wow I agree he had value but I didn't see the numbers Law put out as a possibility.  If he truly has that much value trading him now makes some sense as the Twins won't be signing him at 20M on a QO next year or to a contract anything close to what Law predicts.  The tough part is if the Twins do trade him it weakens the team a fair bit as he was our HR leader and a big bat for the team down the stretch. 

Put me in the believer camp that Kepler has turned a corner with the bat and his defense is always solid in right.  Will be interesting to see what happens with both Kepler and Polanco in the offseason.  It would be nice to see this team sell high on some guys for once, but moving on from Kepler if he is second half Kepler is going to hurt next years team.

[Parfigliano]

Kepler will be 31 in February.  Law's projected salary numbers seem crazy to me.