Week in Review: Clinching and Cringing

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins officially put the American League Central on ice, but the celebration was a little subdued in the wake of some tough injury developments earlier in the week.

Here's the latest on Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, and your 2023 division champs.

Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

 

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 9/18 through Sun, 9/24
***
Record Last Week: 4-2 (Overall: 83-73)
Run Differential Last Week: +12 (Overall: +102)
Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (9.5 GA)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 151 | CIN 7, MIN 3: Ryan Struggles, Correa Exits Early
Game 152 | MIN 7, CIN 0: Twins Blow Out Reds But Lose Lewis
Game 153 | MIN 5, CIN 3: Polanco and Castro Lead Comeback Win
Game 154 | MIN 8, LAA 6: Twins Clinch AL Central Title at Home
Game 155 | LAA 1, MIN 0: Hangover Lineup Looks Hungover
Game 156 | MIN 9, LAA 3: Another Series Win Behind Jeffers, Kepler

NEWS & NOTES

It wouldn't be a successful Minnesota Twins regular season if it didn't include at least a couple of heartbreaking twists of fate that threaten to impede the team's effectiveness in the postseason. Last week was quite the double-whammy in this regard.

Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis, who are arguably the two most important playoff bats for the Twins, exited early on successive nights in Cincinnati.

First it was Correa coming out of Monday's game after planting his foot and feeling a sharp pain during a routine defensive play. Correa was soon placed on the injured list with an aggravation of the plantar fasciitis that's bothered him for much of the season. Trevor Larnach was recalled to take his place.

On Tuesday, Lewis came up limping after an awkward swing at the plate, and was quickly removed from the game with a hamstring injury. The rookie phenom was visibly dejected and frustrated as he slowly walked off the field – a crushing moment.

Correa is confident he'll be able to return for the playoffs, and his optimism seems to be shared by management. How effective he will be, and whether the foot issue will flare up again now that it's been aggravated? Those are separate questions.

The outlook for Lewis is more ambiguous. He was diagnosed with a "Grade 1-plus" hamstring strain, which is viewed as somewhere between mild and moderate, with a recovery span in the two weeks-plus range. That puts Lewis in a tight spot, with the injury suffered exactly 14 days before Game 1 of the AL Wild Card Series. 

Will he make it back? We'll see. For now, Jordan Luplow replaces him on the active roster.

Several rehabbing relievers are in line to return just ahead of the postseason. Chris Paddack became the first to break through when he was called up from Triple-A on Sunday. Josh Winder was optioned and Jovani Moran moved to the 60-day IL to make room.

Paddack looked fantastic in the minors, piling up 15 strikeouts in 9 ⅔ innings between three levels, and now he'll look to fulfill a similar bullpen role as Louie Varland, bringing upper-90s heat over multiple innings. Paddack was set to appear in relief of Joe Ryan on Sunday, but a rain delay just before his appearance threw that plan out the window. 

Brock Stewart will presumably be following Paddack closely, with three hitless appearances in Triple-A under his belt. Jorge Alcala is also in the mix, and physically ready to return, though the Twins might be less inclined to make room for him given the differing levels of trust these relievers have earned. Alcala did have a dominant outing in St. Paul on Friday night, striking out four over two perfect frames, which gives him a bit more appeal.

With the Triple-A season ending on Sunday, it's unclear what the future holds for Alcala, as well as other rehabbing players like Nick Gordon and Joey Gallo, for whom there are no apparent openings on the big-league roster. Barring an injury somewhere to make room, their seasons might all be finished.

HIGHLIGHTS

On Friday night, the Minnesota Twins clinched their first division championship in three years before a sizable crowd of fans in their home park. Their rejuvenated offense built a big lead against the woeful Angels, and the bullpen managed to hang on despite some turbulence to close it out. Thus, the party commenced.

Outside of a sleepy hangover game on Saturday that saw the Twins get shut out by something called Kenny Rosenberg and a band of Angels relievers, Minnesota's lineup was again on top its game last week. It was nice to see some of the role-player veterans pulling much of the weight.

Willi Castro continued his September surge by going 5-for-13 with two homers and a triple, plugging in at third base in Lewis' absence. Since returning from the injured list on September 3rd, Castro is batting .302 with a .951 OPS.

Kyle Farmer is also enjoying a very strong final month and setting himself up for a key postseason role, with the availability of Lewis and (to a lesser extent) Correa in question. Farmer's OPS is solidly above .800 this month, and last week he went 8-for-23 with a pair of doubles, taking over as primary shortstop in Correa's absence.

Even Christian Vázquez joined the fun, chipping in a pair of two-hit games and a walk in his three starts. He's been much better at the plate recently and continues to rate out extremely well defensively, giving the Twins a two-headed threat behind the plate that's an underrated ingredient in their success.

You might not think of Castro, Farmer or Vázquez as key players for the postseason picture – very possibly none will be in the starting lineup for Game 1. But they're all going to be called upon at times, and in many cases, role players like these can make all the difference by coming through in those critical tailor-made moments.

The Twins' rotation is looking ready for its big upcoming assignment as well. Sonny Gray spun six innings of one-run ball with eight strikeouts and no walks in what might he his last standard start of the regular season. He has a 1.96 ERA this month and looks very ready to take the ball in the playoffs, although it sounds as though he'll be doing so in Game 2 behind Pablo López, who delivered a quality start against Los Angeles on Friday.

Rocco Baldelli was not as prepared to disclose the plan for beyond those first two games. My guess is that they'll go with Ryan (who has no experience relieving, let alone in the playoffs) piggybacked by Kenta Maeda (who has plenty of experience with both) following a time or two through the order. Sure enough, Baldelli expressed a plan to prime Maeda for such a role by appearing out of the bullpen in the final week.

However those two are mixed in, they both gave the team a boost of confidence this past week. Maeda was splendid in Cincinnati on Tuesday, tossing five shutout innings with eight strikeouts. Ryan allowed three runs in six innings on Sunday while striking out 10 and walking none.

LOWLIGHTS

Without question, the biggest bummer of last week was watching both Correa and Lewis limp off the field with injuries on back-to-back nights. Just an incredible buzzkill at a time where the Twins were counting down toward a much-anticipated return to the postseason while mostly counting their blessings on the health front.

These two players have so uniquely earned reputations for rising to the occasion. In Correa's case, it's a longstanding rep that is October-tested; he is the active MLB leader in postseason RBIs. In Lewis' case, the sample is small but convincing: he's on a 140-RBI full-season pace as a rookie, and has shown a remarkable penchant for coming through in key spots and with runners aboard.

The prospect of playing without them, or with one or both in a highly limited state, is disheartening for a team that desperately needs to exorcize its postseason demons. 

Inexperience will be another key factor to watch as the Twins march their way toward the big stage. Are the younger and less experienced players who've helped propel the team to this point ready for the ultimate pressure cooker?

Jhoan Duran was admittedly rattled by the stakes of trying to close out a clinching game in front of a packed stadium on Friday night. Attempting to protect a three-run lead against a horrible Angels team, Duran worked himself into a precarious situation, allowing a run and loading the bases before finally escaping on a nifty defensive play by Julien.

Duran struggled to throw strikes, finding the zone with just 17 of his 34 pitches. It's okay to deal with some nerves in a spot like that – and perhaps a good thing that he went through the experience – but Duran's going to need to dial it in once the games start mattering more than ever.

TRENDING STORYLINE

What will become of Byron Buxton? The hobbled designated hitter has pushed himself hard to make it back for the playoffs, returning after a setback with his knee to make two starts for the Saints last week. There were plans for him to start back-to-back days over the weekend, but rain washed away the Saturday night game in St. Paul.

Buxton's results at the plate were none too impressive during his latest two-game Triple-A stint – he was 1-for-8 with three strikeouts, though he reportedly produced some hard contact. That might be less meaningful than how his leg is feeling in the days ahead. 

I suspect the Twins will go out of their way to include Buck on the postseason roster, even if as a Kirk Gibson-esque long shot pinch-hitting threat, but the state of his body – or a forced decision between carrying him or someone more functionally useful like Lewis or Andrew Stevenson or a reliever – might override that desire.

LOOKING AHEAD

We're finally here: the last week of the season. The Twins have an extremely soft final landing pad, with a pair of last-place teams on the docket. The trip to Colorado's altitudinous environment just ahead of the postseason is a bit annoying; Baldelli has indicated the Twins might leave some players behind for that trip, which sounds like a good plan. Expect short tune-up starts from Lopez and Gray on Wednesday and Thursday, who will surely be among those staying in Minnesota over the weekend to prep for the playoffs.

TUESDAY, 9/26: ATHLETICS @ TWINS – RHP Paul Blackburn v. RHP Bailey Ober
WEDNESDAY, 9/27: ATHLETICS @ TWINS – RHP Joey Estes v. RHP Pablo Lopez
THURSDAY, 9/28: ATHLETICS @ TWINS – RHP Luis Medina v. RHP Sonny Gray
FRIDAY, 9/29: TWINS @ ROCKIES – TBD v. LHP Ty Blach
SATURDAY, 9/30: TWINS @ ROCKIES – TBD v. RHP Chase Anderson
SUNDAY, 10/1: TWINS @ ROCKIES – TBD v. TBD

 

 

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[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Lewis visibly injured himself running to first base in the sixth inning. and Gladden even speculated on air during Lewis’s at bat in the 8th inning that he hoped Lewis would not swing during that at bat and risk aggravating whatever he had hurt in the 6th inning. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The Twins have an opportunity here. Show us that they can win that first series, and the way Texas is playing, Texas who is very beatable may be the opponent in the second round. 

[Aerodeliria]

Let's see if Baldelli has learned some things from his playoff experiences. What Tom Kelly understood was that each game was to be treated like there was no tomorrow, so if someone was pitching well, you just left the guy in. He looked at every angle. (Let's jam Kirk Gibson in every at bat on every pitch. Let's steal bases like crazy even though we haven't done so all season. Let's try a pickoff move at third in the most intense moment in the game. Let's hit the ball to the opposite field against Doyle Alexander. Let's let Jack pitch the 10th even though he's reached the limit in pitches., etc.) Most importantly, don't worry about what's going to happen three days later. This is something Gardenhire never understood IMHO.

...oh and make sure your best defensive team is on the field when protecting a small lead in the late innings.

[bighat]

8 hours ago, Aerodeliria said:

Let's see if Baldelli has learned some things from his playoff experiences. What Tom Kelly understood was that each game was to be treated like there was no tomorrow., so if someone was pitching well, you just left the guy in. He looked at every angle. (Let's jam Kirk Gibson in every at bat on every pitch. Let's steal bases like crazy even though we haven't done so all season. Let's try a pickoff move at third in the most intense moment in the game. Let's hit the ball to the opposite field against Doyle Alexander. Let's let Jack pitch the 10th even though he's reached the limit in pitches., etc.) Most importantly, don't worry about what's going to happen three days later. This is something Gardenhire never understood IMHO.

...oh and make sure your best defensive team is on the field when protecting a small lead in the late innings.

You just named my main problem with Rocco - he's always "managing for tomorrow". If the Twins are down by 3 runs and it's the 6th inning, he's already pulling guys out and resting them for the next day, maybe using the Twins' 3rd tier relievers as opposed to the top guys in situations like that. I understand the philosophy, I just don't agree with it. 

Reading about how Maeda might piggyback on Ryan's playoff start makes me worried that Rocco will pull Ryan in the 4th inning even if the kid is pitching lights out. It would be a very 'on brand' move. 

Worries and gripes aside, the Twins are in the playoffs and we've got some meaningful baseball coming our way soon! In June I really soured on this team and had all but given up hope, but they've shown some real grit and I'm gladly eating crow. Pass the hot sauce and GO TWINS.