Poll: Draft Scenario 2

[John Bonnes]

Something happens in the top three such that the pitchers Appel and Gray are taken BUT Kris Bryant (today's profiled player) is still on the board. With the 4th pick. You have the same options as in yesterday's poll, but now you can add Bryant, who is widely considered the best (remaining) player available, but who is a hitter. Do you choose:

 

a. Kris Bryant

b. Kohl Stewart, RHP with the most upside but most risk AND he won't be arriving to majors until 2017 most likely

c. a college pitcher like Stanek, Shipley, Manaea, etc. - less risk, less upside, but a probably arrives by at least a year or two before Stewart.

d. Reese McGuire and use the $1.3M on other picks

 

Again, I'll love your votes (which I'll try to open up to non-members) but I'd really like your comments.

 

Ugh. There is no option to open this up to non-members. Please register with Twins Daily to vote on the poll.

[Seth Stohs]

Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman and Ryan Braun turned out pretty good...

[Kwak]

Sluggers are worth the risk--he might start April 2014--and HIT! Four years later--can trade him for two quality starting pitchers and two bench types.

[gunnarthor]

This would require the Astros to take Moran and the two pitchers going 2 and 3. I think the Rockies are more likely to take Bryant than either pitcher, from what I've read, but if he's there at #4, I'd take him. Appel is the only player I'd have ahead of Bryant.

 

With him, Sano, Walker, Arcia etc the Twins would have some very impressive power bats in their system.

[ericchri]

It'd be a disappointment to not get a pitcher, but I'm more confident (if WAGs from the uninformed can actually contain confidence, anyway) in Kris Bryant being a legit player than the other choices. Getting a #1 pitcher might be better in the long-term, but my confidence isn't as high they get a standout pitcher as it is in Bryant being a standout. You want draft choices that high to become strong big leaguers some day, whoever is most likely to (Bryant) gets my vote.

[cmb0252]

Always take BPA and while I don't know who it is on the Twins actual board, I do on mine. Bryant.

[Kwak]

Always take BPA and while I don't know who it is on the Twins actual board, I do on mine. Bryant.

BPA is a lazy man's way of saying "this guy". People don't have BPA stamped on them.

[kab21]

BPA is a lazy man's way of saying "this guy". People don't have BPA stamped on them.

 

this is a lazy way of saying I can't make a decision so take a pitcher because it's a position of need.

 

None of us are professional scouts but there seems to be an industry consensus that Bryant is the third best player in this draft. Do you disagree with them?

[iTwins]

Kohl Stewart is interesting, simply because of his great potential. The Twins need pitching, but I don't know if I'd take the risk of drafting a high school pitcher (who will hit the majors in 2017 if we're lucky) just because the 2013-2014 Twins need starters. I'd go with Bryant. Take the bat and hope you have too many talented hitters and not enough positions to play them. That's a good problem to have.

[cmb0252]

BPA is a lazy man's way of saying "this guy". People don't have BPA stamped on them.

 

I'm pretty sure I noted Bryant would be the BPA for me. How is that lazy? That's accurate.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I voted Stewart, though I'll admit that Bryant is quite the consolation prize. I'd be more concerned about the Twins hitting like Detroit the second half of the decade and having a pitching rotation that's at best average.... That team will win a lot of slugfests, but get bounced from the playoffs (or not even make it)... Pitching wins games.

[Kwak]

I'm pretty sure I noted Bryant would be the BPA for me. How is that lazy? That's accurate.

I picked Bryant too--but I don't claim he's the BPA.

[Joe A. Preusser]

As much as it chaps my hide not getting another high quality pitching prospect, BPA is the correct answer 99% of the time. Consensus on that is Bryant. If that changes, or if our scouts evaluate things differently, then so be it. But who right now is complaining that Byron Buxton will play for the Minnesota Twins? No one, but there were plenty of folks who griped after the draft last year.

[Siehbiscuit]

Imagine a 2016 starting lineup of...

 

CF - Byron Buxton ®

C - Joe Mauer (L)

3B/1B - Miguel Sano ®

LF - Oswaldo Arcia (L)

1B/3B - Kris Bryant ®

DH - Kenny Vargas (L)

RF - Aaron Hicks (S)

2B - Eddie Rosario (L)

SS - Santana, Goodrum, Polanco

 

or a rotation of...

 

1. Alex Meyer

2. Kyle Gibson

3. Trevor May

4. Alex Wimmers

5a. Jose Berrios

 

5b. Kohl Stewart (called up in June)

 

I like the bat. I can't wait till 2016 to see a HS pitcher.

[Steve Lein]

In this scenario, I take Bryant after pondering it for like .000038659 seconds.

 

I like the idea of Kohl Stewart, but not the risk associated with him or the amount of time it will take to get him to the Twins.

 

Bryant will be like Mike Zunino with the Mariners (already in AAA knocking on the door less than a year after being drafted), except Bryant is an even better hitter than Zunino. Plug him in at 1B and get him to the Twins ASAP.

[Kwak]

Imagine a 2016 starting lineup of...

 

CF - Byron Buxton ®

C - Joe Mauer (L)

3B/1B - Miguel Sano ®

LF - Oswaldo Arcia (L)

1B/3B - Kris Bryant ®

DH - Kenny Vargas (L)

RF - Aaron Hicks (S)

2B - Eddie Rosario (L)

SS - Santana, Goodrum, Polanco

 

or a rotation of...

 

1. Alex Meyer

2. Kyle Gibson

3. Trevor May

4. Alex Wimmers

5a. Jose Berrios

 

5b. Kohl Stewart (called up in June)

 

I like the bat. I can't wait till 2016 to see a HS pitcher.

For those are so very enthusiastic about that lineup, exchanging Buxton for Appel makes for a stronger team in the playoffs. Methinks that Ryan's selection of Buxton over Appel had one or two (unnamed) factors in the decision rubric. I think Ryan will use this same rubric this year.

[Sssuperdave]

Even if we agree on BPA being the best strategy, I think it is far from clear which of Bryant or Stewart is the BPA. How do you really compare a college slugger to a high school pitcher? I think the "clear consensus" that Appel, Gray, and Bryant are the top three in the draft has a hefty dose of risk-aversion built in, as I've read that Stewart has a higher ceiling than Gray or Appel. My pick would be Stewart over Bryant, and I should probably stay away from Vegas.

[righty8383]

I had to go with the majority and take Bryant. I love Stewart and all his potential, but Bryant's bat is too good to pass up. I envision Bryant and Sano hitting back-to-back triple-deckers at Target Field.

[John Bonnes]

I think the "clear consensus" that Appel, Gray, and Bryant are the top three in the draft has a hefty dose of risk-aversion built in....

 

I thnk that's accurate. But that's a pretty good thing oth a #4 pick, because they don't come along real often. (Though it might next year.)

[nicksaviking]

I've always been a guy saying if the players are similar pick the pitcher as it is a need. However in this case I don't think they are similar. I think Bryant looks to be an elite prospect. I also like Stewart and he's far and away my #4 but Bryant looks like he possibly could be a once in a generation player (along with Buxton and Sano of course!) as could Gray and Appel. My opinion is that Stewart is not anywhere close to them at this point; I think the drop off is pretty big.

 

On a side note, it seems like Bryant is nearly a given to the Rockies at #3. I don't think this is the case. Colorado has put a new emphisis on pitching development. They have taken the unique approach by hiring two pitching coaches and obviously pitching for them is as strong of a need as it is for the Twins. Even if Appel and Gray are off the board, I would not be surprised if Stewart was their pick assuming Colorado doesn't share my opinion on Bryant. They also have a much stronger history of picking pitchers in the 1st round. Of course most have failed so that may disway them.

[Rick Niedermann]

Any pitcher is a risk. Look at what happened to Gibson and Wimmers. I'd still take Gray (or Appel) if they fall to us. A rotation of May, Gibson, Gray, Meyer and a another from Wimmers, Deduno, Diamond, Worley, Hendriks, Berrios, Baxendale is just to tempting. It would be so nice to have 3 or 4 top or near top of rotation guys to go along with Sano, Rosario, Arcia, Buxton, Pinto, Hicks in a few years. It's a chance of a lifetime to put together a really balanced team. 20 years from now we might look back at this era as the glory days of Twins baseball. If no pitcher drops and Houston takes Moran, definitely Bryant over a high school kid.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Imagine a 2016 starting lineup of...

 

CF - Byron Buxton ®

C - Joe Mauer (L)

3B/1B - Miguel Sano ®

LF - Oswaldo Arcia (L)

1B/3B - Kris Bryant ®

DH - Kenny Vargas (L)

RF - Aaron Hicks (S)

2B - Eddie Rosario (L)

SS - Santana, Goodrum, Polanco

 

or a rotation of...

 

1. Alex Meyer

2. Kyle Gibson

3. Trevor May

4. Alex Wimmers

5a. Jose Berrios

 

5b. Kohl Stewart (called up in June)

 

I like the bat. I can't wait till 2016 to see a HS pitcher.

 

If the Twins are drafting 3 and 4 sure, but getting stewart and Bryant in this draft would be pretty impressive

[diehardtwinsfan]

Any pitcher is a risk. Look at what happened to Gibson and Wimmers. I'd still take Gray (or Appel) if they fall to us. A rotation of May, Gibson, Gray, Meyer and a another from Wimmers, Deduno, Diamond, Worley, Hendriks, Berrios, Baxendale is just to tempting. It would be so nice to have 3 or 4 top or near top of rotation guys to go along with Sano, Rosario, Arcia, Buxton, Pinto, Hicks in a few years. It's a chance of a lifetime to put together a really balanced team. 20 years from now we might look back at this era as the glory days of Twins baseball. If no pitcher drops and Houston takes Moran, definitely Bryant over a high school kid.

 

The big reason why you need multiple top of the rotation guys is that injury/ineffectiveness will bit... period.

[Badsmerf]

I'm still going to go Stewart. I'd rather have a guy that can be one of the best 20 pitchers in the game than a guy that might be one of the top 5 players at their position. Elite (not even Ace) pitchers are worth more than elite position players. Would the Dodgers trade Kershaw straight up for Mauer?

 

I don't get the argument about when he arrives. The Twins top prospects are not going to be arriving in force until 2015 anyway, so I don't really see the big deal of waiting another year to see a potentially great pitcher. Also, the argument about a HS kid being a risk, they are no more risky than a college guy.

[Einstein]

In my opinion, Kohl Stewart is the clear number 4 in this draft (behind Gray, Appel and Bryant). If any of the big 3 are available to the Twins, I would hope that the Twins would not pass on them. In this scenario, I would gladly take Bryant.

[dgwills]

Alright Mr Bonnes... I created a profile. This does go against my policy on doing things though. Only hope you will be able to live with that. Love the site and have followed it for some time. The articles and comments are usually done well. They contain a lot of good analysis and insight.

Had to go with Bryant. You can never have enough power hitters.

[John Bonnes]

Alright Mr Bonnes... I created a profile. This does go against my policy on doing things though. Only hope you will be able to live with that. Love the site and have followed it for some time. The articles and comments are usually done well. They contain a lot of good analysis and insight.

Had to go with Bryant. You can never have enough power hitters.

 

Glad my nagging had an effect. :-)

[UCLA_YANKEE_COLA]

Elite (not even Ace) pitchers are worth more than elite position players. Would the Dodgers trade Kershaw straight up for Mauer?

 

That's not a fair comparison. If Mauer and Kershaw were available in the same draft every team in the league takes Mauer first.

[Oxtung]

That's not a fair comparison. If Mauer and Kershaw were available in the same draft every team in the league takes Mauer first.

 

I wouldn't be so sure about that. The Twins almost drafted Mark Prior instead of Mauer. The reason they went with Mauer is because Prior's dad let it be known he wasn't interested in playing for the Twins and wouldn't sign. From Ryan's own mouth he says they were split right down the middle. 50/50.

 

The Cubs GM at the time is on record as saying he was taking whoever the Twins didn't take.