Seattle Is A Good Fit For A Blockbuster Deal

[Cody Pirkl]

The Mariners and master tradesman Jerry Dipoto have yet to make a trade as the deadline nears despite floating their willingness to part with controllable pitching. The Twins could make a surprising deal happen.

Image courtesy of Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

The Seattle Mariners have assembled an enviable rotation, including controllable arms such as George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo, in addition to the recently extended Luis Castillo. In order to deal from this group, it sounds as though they’re looking for controllable bats in return. Should the Twins try to match up?

The Twins have shown that they’re nothing if not creative when it comes to utilizing the trade market. It’s been downright impossible to guess their next move, as evidenced by the recent Jorge Lopez deal. While they don’t currently have an opening in the rotation, 2024 is a different story with Gray and Maeda set to depart. Could they move for another addition that could help them currently and in the future?

With regards to where the Mariners might be looking for offensive pieces, the Twins may actually be a match. Their big long-term pieces in the outfield are Julio Rodriguez and Jarred Kelenic, with the third outfield spot in flux. A left-handed corner outfield bat could certainly be of interest. If Max Kepler’s 2024 option isn’t enough team control to move the needle, perhaps they’re fond of Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner as at least part of a trade for an arm. Depending on who they send over, the Twins would certainly have to add to this package, but with several log jams coming up the pipeline, they have the ability to do so. 

Another position of need for Seattle is second base. While it’s hard to see the Twins parting with Edouard Julien, who’s been the heart of the offense, perhaps his lack of defensive value is enough to keep him from being off-limits. With so much control and such a potent bat, it’s likely teams have already checked in on him

It was also curious that after so much talk of long rehab stints for injured players, Jorge Polanco was seemingly rushed back to action. Could the Twins have seen a window for him to prove his health? Polanco has been an underrated part of the Twins lineup for years now, but his long-term viability is coming into question with his health, and they’ve played without him for most of the season. If the option on his contract is enticing for Seattle, it could be another situation where the Twins add more on the back end to acquire a controllable arm.

Between Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo, the Mariners have an enviable situation to deal from, and regardless of what the Twins would have to give up, it would hurt. That being said, acquiring another arm would knock Seattle out of the starting pitcher selling market, and the Twins could acquire a potentially foundational piece of the rotation and recoup some value by flipping one of their rental starters. 

The Twins could also negotiate to replace any MLB talent traded away with Teoscar Hernandez or Ty France, who appear to be on the market for the right price.

It would be a big swing, which most fans do not want to see the Twins take given their inconsistency. It’s hard to deny that the Twins do have some redundancy in their system, and it may match up well with Seattle. Parting with familiar, controllable pieces may sound like a terrifying idea, but this would be a situation where they’re likely acquiring a fully established arm with plenty to offer over the next half-decade. It’s also the kind of shocking, out-of-nowhere deal the Twins (and Jerry Dipoto) have shown they’re willing to pull off. 

Are the Twins and Mariners truly a sneaky good fit in trade? Should the Twins be trying to free up their log jams in such a big way? Let us know below!

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[chpettit19]

I'd start with Wallner and Polanco and see what else they'd want me to add. Getting one of their young arms would be huge for this year, and moving forward. If you have 4 rotation spots locked up for the next half decade basically makes it a whole lot easier to focus on the rest of your club.

I'd guess the Twins don't have the fire power to pull this off, but I'd start with Wallner and Polanco and see if there's something there.

[Cody Pirkl]

30 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'd start with Wallner and Polanco and see what else they'd want me to add. Getting one of their young arms would be huge for this year, and moving forward. If you have 4 rotation spots locked up for the next half decade basically makes it a whole lot easier to focus on the rest of your club.

I'd guess the Twins don't have the fire power to pull this off, but I'd start with Wallner and Polanco and see if there's something there.

I wouldn't be shocked at all if we didn't have the guys to pull off a Gilbert trade for example either, but it's always hard to say. Some teams just value guys more highly than the public perception if say they think Wallner is a future All Star for example. 

I would be wary of trading multiple current big league pieces in such a deal FWIW. I'd be down to get someone like Emmanuel Rodriguez involved though. 

[chpettit19]

43 minutes ago, Cody Pirkl said:

I wouldn't be shocked at all if we didn't have the guys to pull off a Gilbert trade for example either, but it's always hard to say. Some teams just value guys more highly than the public perception if say they think Wallner is a future All Star for example. 

I would be wary of trading multiple current big league pieces in such a deal FWIW. I'd be down to get someone like Emmanuel Rodriguez involved though. 

Yeah, I have no idea how teams view Wallner. But I think he's the best mix of a team maybe seeing him as a ready made MLB slugger they value, while also being a bit expendable by the Twins. 

If it were multiple big league pieces who've been around all year I'd be more worried. Julien and Lewis have passed Polanco while he's been hurt (or at least they have for me, and I love Polo) with Lee having really found his footing in AA. If a team like Seattle views him as a piece that can help in their "win now" window of the next few years I'd be willing to move him with a Wallner type (would prefer to move Larnach, but don't think he's worth much anymore) if it gets me one of those arms. Rodriguez is a tough call for me because his upside is out of this world, but I'm not sure he'll ever make enough contact to reach it. I'm an "upside" guy because I believe you need stars to win, so if my player dev guys are telling me Rodriguez can be a star if he can be slightly more aggressive early in counts (just a possible answer to his K problem) I'm not trading him. If it's a bigger fix that needs to happen, but another team views him as an elite prospect then I'd be willing to move him.

Twins have painted themselves into a less than ideal corner. Will be interesting to see how the next 26ish hours goes.

Edited to add: I was just on The Athletic and saw Jim Bowden suggesting a Jonathan India for Bryce Miller straight up trade. Wallner is younger than India, with more control left, but clearly less track record. But if that deal is realistic (Bowden is a former GM, but has some pretty out there trade ideas sometimes), and the Mariners view Wallner as being able to maintain anything near his AAA numbers I'd think Wallner and Polanco together would get them pretty close to being able to pick which of their young arms they want. 

[Patzky]

India is hurt and Sewald went to AZ 

[CRF]

Deals are getting done...and so far, we don't seem to be pulling the trigger on anything. Sewald is gone. Canha is gone. Candelario is gone. Only 24 hours left to plug some holes. 

[tony&rodney]

This is a similar situation to the P. Lopez for Arraez trade. The question is who would Seattle want in return for Gilbert? They could use a second baseman and an outfielder. If I'm the Mariners GM, I'm thinking about players like Lee, Lewis, Julien, and Kirilloff with an interest in Wallner. I would want one (of L, L, J, K) plus a mil pitcher like Raya or Festa and a throw in like Matt Canterino. Remember that Gilbert would strengthen the starting staff and he has four years of arbitration starting with 2024.. Who is up for that trade? Or do folks think Varland, Winder, Headrick, or Sands are ready to step into the rotation next year. 

[USAFChief]

Wow. Sewald went to Arizona for basically nothing. 

Big time miss from Falvine.

[twinstalker]

13 hours ago, Cody Pirkl said:

Some teams just value guys more highly than the public perception if say they think Wallner is a future All Star for example. 

The public doesn't dig down into the stats very far.  Twins prospects, except for Lee and maybe a few others much further down, have huge K rates, and teams only look as far as that to say no.  I think Wallner's k rate is a bit misleading, but I can't quantify why.  I doubt a team is going to look at it and say: "There's a future all-star."

I realize you just use Wallner as an example, but again, outside of Lee and possibly some new draftees, nearly every prospect is badly flawed.  It's a bad system thanks to bad drafts, meh signings, and horrible trades.  Boras is basically running the front office for his own benefit (Joey Gallo says thanks for the $11 million, Lewis and Kirilloff and Jeffers won't be accepting early, team-friendly deals).

[JD-TWINS]

17 hours ago, Patzky said:

India is hurt and Sewald went to AZ 

India was ROY in 2021……not sure how he got so old? Walner has power…..India is a 15-18 HR guy at best. India plays 2B & that seems to be a need for Seattle - I guess? Wallner could take Teoscar’s league lead for strikeouts in AL going forward.

Anyway, the real question is, why are we trying to acquire starting pitching for the future at the deadline and in a Division race? Particularly when your Staff ERA is 3rd in the AL? We need Pen depth - period!!!

I’m all for moving Wallner if needed, preferably Larnach, along with Polanco to get some controllable relief help. They can go with a prospect or two in differing deals but these guys should be available.

San Diego could trade relievers behind Hader and they get a LH bat or two they need. Possibilities there because they have real need for LH bats!

[tony&rodney]

The Twins should think about how to manage a trade with Seattle in the offseason. I'm willing to trade one of Lewis/Kirilloff plus Raya and a low A player  throw in (not a highly rated young prospect) for Logan Gilbert.