Where Would They Rank?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Prospect rankings are greatly debated. There's no perfect science in doing them and even the best talent evaluators miss quite often. But we're going to do an exercise today where we combine the Twins Daily Top 20 Prospects list and Jamie Cameron's Consensus Big Board and try to decide where the potential draftees would fit into the organizational rankings.

Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

A couple notes: Neither the Twins Daily Rankings or the Big Board are my own lists, so I may move players up or down a little bit. But they help form the backbone of these thoughts.

Current #1 Prospect: Brooks Lee

• The only draft prospects I would put above Lee are Dylan Crews, Paul Skenes and Wyatt Langford. I don't think there is much debate on that, as a matter of fact.

Current #2 Prospect: Emmanuel Rodriguez (Royce Lewis has graduated from prospect status, the Twins Daily list just doesn't reflect that. It will be updated following the draft.)

• Rodriguez has not had a great year, but is still likely the Twins #2 prospect and, from a national perspective, is probably a borderline Top 100 prospect at this point. Just based on Rodriguez being around prospect #100 overall, you can immediately add a bunch of prospects ahead of him. 
• The top two high schoolers (Walker Jenkins and Max Clark) for sure. Then the group of Kyle Teel, Tommy Troy, Chase Dollander, Arjun Nimmala, Noble Meyer and Rhett Lowder would all likely be Top 100-type guys.
• Personally, I'm lower on Troy than the Big Board and higher on the Meyer and Lowder.
• But that's about 10 (maybe 13-15) or so guys that would immediately jump into the Top 100 conversation and rank above or similarly to Rodriguez.

Current #3 and #4 Prospects: Connor Prielipp and Marco Raya (Edouard Julien has graduated from prospect status, the Twins Daily list just doesn't reflect that. It will be updated following the draft.)

• This is where things get really interesting. Prielipp is high-upside, but has been dealing with arm issues for most of the year. Raya was recently promoted to Double-A, but the conversation would probably be more about Top 200-ish prospects when talking about Raya.
• I'd have a hard time not putting any first-round talent above both Prielipp and Raya at this point. Raya hasn't hurt himself, but Prielipp has fallen for simply not being available. For me, that cut-off point on the Big Board happens no earlier than Brock Wilken (#22) and there could be an argument for guys into the mid-30s.

Current #5-10 Prospects: Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, Matt Wallner, Yasser Mercedes, Austin Martin.

• There's a drop off here. Certainly Matt Wallner isn't ranked accurately at this time. But would there be any Day 1 picks that most wouldn't confidently throw into this list? It's a mix of decent-floor, high-ceiling, proximity to the bigs and five promotions away.
• I look at names like Mac Horvath (#74), Tre' Morgan (#86), Cole Carrigg (#96) and have a hard time not thinking that a Top 100 Draft Prospect doesn't immediately jump into the back half of the Twins Top 10. 

Following those guidelines and using my 10-round Twins-only mock draft, my post-draft list would look something like this:

• 1) Brooks Lee (Top 50 global prospect)
• 2) Emmanuel Rodriguez (borderline Top 100) (If the Twins could float Noble Meyer to #34, I'd place him here, above Rodriguez and Gonzalez.)
• 3) Jacob Gonzalez (projected 5th pick; borderline Top 100)
• 4) Matt Wallner
• 5) Jack Hurley (projected 34th pick)
• 6) Marco Raya
• 7) Thomas White (projected 49th pick)
• 8) Connor Prielipp
• 9) Tanner Schobel
• 10) Sean Sullivan (projected 82nd pick)
• 11) David Festa
• 12) Zion Rose (projected 114th pick)

I don't think the first five picks jumping into a team's Top 12 prospects should be the norm and it's actually kind of concerning, but the combination of graduations, poor performance and trades that sent out players that would rank high on this list (Christian Encarnacion-Strand is a borderline Top 100 prospect, Chase Petty would rank above Raya and Cade Povich would fit into that Prielipp/Sullivan/Festa group depending on how you value upside/proximity) paint a more understanding picture.

Comparatively to 2022, the Twins Top 3 picks (Lee, Prielipp and Schobel) are all Top 10 prospects on the above list. They were all drafted in the Top 75 and the Twins lost a third round pick for signing Carlos Correa.

This is all subjective and your rankings may look very different. Of course, it's impossible to put a list together without knowing who is actually on the list. But it's fair to think the fifth overall pick should be the team's best or second-best prospect. The other two Day 1 picks fit into the #3-7 range and the first pick on Day Two is a top 10 prospect.

What do you think?

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[Mike Sixel]

This just shows how deep this draft is...... And I'm less high on Lee than I have been. Fifth in his league among SS in hitting. I'm not seeing progress. I think any of the top 5 are higher than him. 

By top five I mean ranked in this draft, not your five projected picks. I agree with your overall ranking 

[D.C Twins]

I think Lee's hitting numbers this year are impacted by adjusting to the daily grind of a long professional season playing SS. 

Hopefully he will respond with amping up his post season fitness/strength regiment to endure through looooong MLB seasons!

[Lefty61]

I would include 20 year old infielder Jose Salas in your top 12 instead of Schobel.  While he has struggled at the plate  in his first year at High A Cedar Rapids,  his splits batting left as a switch hitter suggest he's getting there.  And he is seeing more time at 2B which will get him thru the system faster as the bat develops.  

[Twinsoholic]

Lefty61,

 

Good call to remind us not to overlook Salas despite his underwhelming season so far given what was likely the high expectation of many of us following the reports of his prospect status at the time of the trade. But, Schobel is on fire—another home run today (14 so far). His batting average and OPS are promising. While Schobel is. Ot a shortstop, he can play 3B and likely 2B. He was underwhelming last season, but he has been hitting extremely well for some time now. If only Miller could also learn to hit consistently (he did have 2 hits today—his batting average is creeping up at .213). I agree with Jeremy’s ranking of Schobel at this time. From my perspective, Schobel looks like a better second round selection than Miller if Miller’s offensive numbers don’t improve significantly. Without stronger batting prowess, Miller’s best hope is to replicate Mark Belanger defense at shortstop. One more thing. Sabato has been hitting much better of late. He homered today and has his batting average up to .225. It had been well bow the Mendoza line for so long.  His OPS is now .821. 

[Seth Stohs]

3 hours ago, D.C Twins said:

I think Lee's hitting numbers this year are impacted by adjusting to the daily grind of a long professional season playing SS. 

Hopefully he will respond with amping up his post season fitness/strength regiment to endure through looooong MLB seasons!

It's a good point and one we probably don't think about enough. Getting through that first full season is a real grind, and I often hear from players who adjust their offseason workout schedule and strain to adapt for Year 2. 

[MABB1959]

It would be interesting to see a couple Twins vs Saints games.  We could see some of the players IMO the FO are holding off.  It should be easy to set up since they are so close together.  A couple this week would be good.  They do need time off but they need to try something NOW to get the AAA team MLB experience.   The lineup needs change or they will be cleaning their locker rooms out on October 1st.  See SWR and maybe Kuechel  pitch.  The Twins could use the batting practice for sure.  

[dxpavelka]

1 hour ago, MABB1959 said:

It would be interesting to see a couple Twins vs Saints games.  We could see some of the players IMO the FO are holding off.  It should be easy to set up since they are so close together.  A couple this week would be good.  They do need time off but they need to try something NOW to get the AAA team MLB experience.   The lineup needs change or they will be cleaning their locker rooms out on October 1st.  See SWR and maybe Kuechel  pitch.  The Twins could use the batting practice for sure.  

Hopefully SWR's 6.79 plays better at the big league level than in the International League.

[MABB1959]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

Hopefully SWR's 6.79 plays better at the big league level than in the International League.

No doubt the Twins could use these games to figure out what is wrong with the hitting. We eventually need to see what we have with SWR, Austin Martin, Wallner and others or let them go.  We keep wondering what Wallner can do, what we got for Berrios and a few others who should be MLB ready by now.  

[2wins87]

1 hour ago, dxpavelka said:

Hopefully SWR's 6.79 plays better at the big league level than in the International League.

I think the ABS system has had such a huge effect on AAA numbers that I actually wouldn't be surprised to see some guys' ERAs drop by 0.5-1 between AAA to the majors. 

Obviously SWR still needs time if he is going to be an MLB pitcher in the future though

 

[2wins87]

I would generally hold off on ranking HS guys super highly before they at least get a taste of pro ball, but I could certainly see Clark or Jenkins ranking 1st in the system.

Honestly Gonzalez is a very similar type of player to Brooks Lee right now, where the lack of impact on the ball is the primary thing holding him back from a more elite status. The fact that Gonzalez never played in a wood bat league certainly adds to my feeling that he needs to perform in pro ball before ranking him very high. I'd easily put him behind Julien who is my current #2 until he graduates in a game or two, but beyond that I'm still kind of unsure.

I could definitely see ranking a few more college guys from this class ahead of Rodriguez, who still doesn't have much of a floor as a prospect. Teel certainly, maybe Troy, Shaw, Bradfield, Taylor, and Gonzalez as well. That's not really considering the pitchers either.

[chpettit19]

I think there's some debate on the 2 high school kids being above Lee. In fact, I'd argue the opposite and say there's not much debate that they'd clearly be above Lee. If they would be likely #1 picks in most of the recent drafts, and Lee went 8th, wouldn't that mean they'd likely have gone before him last year, and thus be ranked higher than him?

I think any of the top 5 would immediately be the Twins top prospect in most public rankings, and the real debate is where the guys in the next tier would rank compared to Lee. And since I don't see Lee as a future star, I really hope they take someone who jumps him in the rankings immediately.

[RJA]

26 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I think there's some debate on the 2 high school kids being above Lee. In fact, I'd argue the opposite and say there's not much debate that they'd clearly be above Lee. If they would be likely #1 picks in most of the recent drafts, and Lee went 8th, wouldn't that mean they'd likely have gone before him last year, and thus be ranked higher than him?

I think any of the top 5 would immediately be the Twins top prospect in most public rankings, and the real debate is where the guys in the next tier would rank compared to Lee. And since I don't see Lee as a future star, I really hope they take someone who jumps him in the rankings immediately.

I agree.  Lee has not performed like the number one college bat many thought he was coming into last year's draft.  Frankly, the numbers he put up in college may have been a bit deceiving because he put them up in the BigW which is not a power conference.  I think it is reasonable to question if he would have had the same numbers playing in the SEC for example.  Some have suggested that his performance is due to having to adjust to a professional schedule, but in fact his numbers are about identical for each month this summer, and he certainly couldn't have had difficulty adjusting to a pro schedule from the get-go, unless he is feeling the pressure of being a number one pick.  I still like him, but boy, am I the only one wondering if this is another Austin Martin situation?  Hopefully, he rallies.  So, I agree that anyone of the top 5 should be ahead of Lee and Rodriguez, and there may be others beyond the big 5 that deserve a higher ranking as well. 

[dxpavelka]

2 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

No doubt the Twins could use these games to figure out what is wrong with the hitting. We eventually need to see what we have with SWR, Austin Martin, Wallner and others or let them go.  We keep wondering what Wallner can do, what we got for Berrios and a few others who should be MLB ready by now.  

SHOULD be MLB ready by now and yet by all accounts are NOT. 

[dxpavelka]

1 hour ago, 2wins87 said:

I think the ABS system has had such a huge effect on AAA numbers that I actually wouldn't be surprised to see some guys' ERAs drop by 0.5-1 between AAA to the majors. 

Obviously SWR still needs time if he is going to be an MLB pitcher in the future though

 

I suppose that would at least get him under a half dozen.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I think there's some debate on the 2 high school kids being above Lee. In fact, I'd argue the opposite and say there's not much debate that they'd clearly be above Lee. If they would be likely #1 picks in most of the recent drafts, and Lee went 8th, wouldn't that mean they'd likely have gone before him last year, and thus be ranked higher than him?

I think any of the top 5 would immediately be the Twins top prospect in most public rankings, and the real debate is where the guys in the next tier would rank compared to Lee. And since I don't see Lee as a future star, I really hope they take someone who jumps him in the rankings immediately.

Agreed.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I think there's some debate on the 2 high school kids being above Lee. In fact, I'd argue the opposite and say there's not much debate that they'd clearly be above Lee.

You're right, it can be debated. I'm just thinking - from a national perspective - BA has Lee at #27 and MLB has him at #19. I called him Top 50 and am probably selling him short. Do all five immediately become Top 20 global prospects? I think that's a little rich, but I could be wrong. There was a lot of debate about Lee or Lewis and if it's Clark or Jenkins, it will probably be that same debate.

Crews, Skenes or Langford are definitely ahead. Everyone else is behind.

At least in my opinion.

[MABB1959]

3 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

I think the ABS system has had such a huge effect on AAA numbers that I actually wouldn't be surprised to see some guys' ERAs drop by 0.5-1 between AAA to the majors. 

Obviously SWR still needs time if he is going to be an MLB pitcher in the future though

 

No idea what ABS is but still stand by my opinion to get some of these guys up. I also think the Saints could win.  Maybe that would light a fire on our pathetic hitting line-up!

[chpettit19]

47 minutes ago, Jeremy Nygaard said:

You're right, it can be debated. I'm just thinking - from a national perspective - BA has Lee at #27 and MLB has him at #19. I called him Top 50 and am probably selling him short. Do all five immediately become Top 20 global prospects? I think that's a little rich, but I could be wrong. There was a lot of debate about Lee or Lewis and if it's Clark or Jenkins, it will probably be that same debate.

Crews, Skenes or Langford are definitely ahead. Everyone else is behind.

At least in my opinion.

Totally fair. I think 19 is too high to rank him, but I'd guess all 5 of these guys are higher than him after the draft if MLB cares about their FV rankings, or the fact that their draft/prospect specialists have both stated that all 5 would've been in the running for the top pick last year. I don't think Lee has done anything this year to show his draft spot was too low, and he was really a 1-1 guy. MLB has them all with FV grades of 60, or 65, while Lee is a 55. But there's more that goes into rankings so it's possible they'd put the kids lower. I'd still like to see them take the 60 FV guy, and I'd rank them (in my obviously super expert opinion 😄) all ahead of Lee.

[2wins87]

29 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

No idea what ABS is but still stand by my opinion to get some of these guys up. I also think the Saints could win.  Maybe that would light a fire on our pathetic hitting line-up!

Automated ball strike system.

They are using it in all AAA parks for the first time this year. Run scoring is up from 5 R/G in 2022 to 5.6 R/G in the international league. Walks are also up from 4 BB/9 to 4.8.

R/G is only 4.5 in the AL this year.

I'm only pointing out that the run scoring environment is pretty extreme in AAA compared to the majors so you have to take the numbers there with a grain of salt, including some of the batting lines.

[MABB1959]

Just now, 2wins87 said:

Automated ball strike system.

They are using it in all AAA parks for the first time this year. Run scoring is up from 5 R/G in 2022 to 5.6 R/G in the international league. Walks are also up from 4 BB/9 to 4.8.

R/G is only 4.5 in the AL this year.

I'm only pointing out that the run scoring environment is pretty extreme in AAA compared to the majors so you have to take the numbers there with a grain of salt, including some of the batting lines.

Got it, thanks.  I guess my thinking is desperate times need desperate measures.  Maybe sending the whole line up to the AAA level would shake up this under achieving line-up. 

[SotaSports in NM]

6 hours ago, MABB1959 said:

No idea what ABS is but still stand by my opinion to get some of these guys up. I also think the Saints could win.  Maybe that would light a fire on our pathetic hitting line-up!

Automatic Balls and Strikes. Used in the minor to challenge pitches. I now live in Albuquerque and see it regularly with the Isotopes and it's pretty great. And yes, the Isotopes are named after that episode of the Simpsons.