Consensus MLB Draft Board Version 3.0

[Jamie Cameron]

Day 1 of the 2023 MLB Draft is drawing near. I’m excited to share the final version of the Consensus Draft Board. You can access the Consensus Draft Board directly by clicking the link in the main article.

Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp

TD.BF.NSBB 2023 Consensus MLB Draft Board V3 Final

In the google sheet, you’ll find players ranked 1 through 311. For each prospect, you’ll find basic information; position, age, rank, school, height, weight, B/T and space where I’ll add where they were selected. In the final ‘writeup’ column, you’ll find notes on each of the first 100 or so prospects highlighting tools, strengths, opportunities, and recent performance. 

In the top 50 of the Consensus Board, you’ll find the following color coding (there was too much variance beyond the top 50 to make continuing to track movements up and down worthwhile):

Light green - player moved up 5-9 spots since last Consensus Board
Dark green - player moved up 10+ spots since last Consensus Board
Light red - player moved down 5-9 spots since last Consensus Board
Dark red - player moved down 10+ spots since last Consensus Board

Following the draft, I’ll do some postmortem on how useful this tool was compared to other boards. For now, I hope people find it a useful resource to find notes and valuable insights into players drafted, starting Sunday.

Lastly, I’ll say that if you appreciate this resource, I’d be really grateful if people share it, link it, tweet it out etc. This is year two of this project and after a promising 2022 version, the 2023 version started in February. It started as a top 30 in winter, and has grown to what I believe to be the first Consensus Board for the MLB Draft. It’s the sum of months of work and over 30,000 words, so anything folks can do to share it is greatly appreciated.

Happy Draft weekend, y’all.

View full article

[TwinkieFan4life]

Thanks, this is amazing work!

[Mike Sixel]

How is Gonzales that high if FG had him 35 and Fox 21?

Thanks for this.

Teel now 6th. He's number five on my list, given the hip issues of Jenkins.

[Dman]

There is just so much talent in the first 50 picks it seems like you just wait for what's there take your pick and it seems like you can't go wrong.  There is good talent through the top 100 as well.  Every team is going to have a good draft so you don't want to get this one wrong.  If you play it right the Twins should get three to four impact players.

Really enjoyed you pointing out the rising and falling prospects!  Really great work.  This will be a great guide for draft day as well.

[Mike Sixel]

37 minutes ago, Dman said:

There is just so much talent in the first 50 picks it seems like you just wait for what's there take your pick and it seems like you can't go wrong.  There is good talent through the top 100 as well.  Every team is going to have a good draft so you don't want to get this one wrong.  If you play it right the Twins should get three to four impact players.

Really enjoyed you pointing out the rising and falling prospects!  Really great work.  This will be a great guide for draft day as well.

Right. Super deep draft, take the best players. 

[DocBauer]

The Twins have done a really nice job the past few years with college seniors and some lower level college players with projection to fill out their drafts. And they've found ways to save a little $ here and there along the way to use it where it might matter. That's how they got Julien.

So in a draft this deep, and 4 picks in the top 100, including the 5th overall, and $14+M to spend, why play any games of the under slot variety? Make the best choices of the best upside players available, and use $ savings in the mid and later rounds if you need more bonus $ earlier.

[Jamie Cameron]

2 hours ago, TwinkieFan4life said:

Thanks, this is amazing work!

Really appreciate it!

[Jamie Cameron]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

How is Gonzales that high if FG had him 35 and Fox 21?

Thanks for this.

Teel now 6th. He's number five on my list, given the hip issues of Jenkins.

There are major boards that still have him 6 or 7. We're conflating him being a boring pick with him being a bad player.

[Jamie Cameron]

2 hours ago, Dman said:

There is just so much talent in the first 50 picks it seems like you just wait for what's there take your pick and it seems like you can't go wrong.  There is good talent through the top 100 as well.  Every team is going to have a good draft so you don't want to get this one wrong.  If you play it right the Twins should get three to four impact players.

Really enjoyed you pointing out the rising and falling prospects!  Really great work.  This will be a great guide for draft day as well.

Really appreciate all the engagement man.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Jamie Cameron said:

There are major boards that still have him 6 or 7. We're conflating him being a boring pick with him being a bad player.

The average between 6 and 21 is 13.....between 6 and 35 is 21......I guess I could look at the board?

Also, I don't think "bad" is the right word. Wrong at 5? yes. Not likely to be elite? Yes. Possibly at best a 2B thet hits like Martin w/o the speed? Yes.

[weitz41]

Nice work! This will be a very useful tool for following the draft.

[terrydactyls]

Serious inquiry - are these mock drafts based on how the different outlets rank players or are they predictions of when they will be drafted?

[2wins87]

1 hour ago, terrydactyls said:

Serious inquiry - are these mock drafts based on how the different outlets rank players or are they predictions of when they will be drafted?

They are predictions mostly. Some mocks are worthless, but the ones by plugged in writers like the MLB guys, Keith Law, Kiley McDaniel, etc. are based on information they are hearing from sources (lots of scouts generally), about who the teams might be leaning towards.

In particular, Law having Gonzalez to the Twins is based on one of his sources confidently telling him that Gonzalez was #3 in the Twins draft model. We don't know who this source is. Maybe it could be a Twins area scout who disagrees? It could also be from an outdated iteration of the model or the source could just be wrong. We also don't know if Sean Johnson would overrule the model in certain scenarios.

[saviking]

My pick would be Kyle Teel .. I think the Twins brain trust they don't have long to pull a rabbit out of the hat and they have a chance to be long gone before a high schooler can develop to serve their cause. Teel is now number 6 and we need a star catcher so I think it's going to be Teel.

[RJA]

Thanks for all your work on this, Jamie.  Great work.  It will be very helpful on draft day.  I would stick with whichever of the top 5 is available when the time comes to make a pick.  But, if they do go with someone else to save some dollars for later picks, I personally hope it is not Gonzalez.  I think there are better options including Teel and several others.  I hope all these rumors about Gonzalez are just a smokescreen.