Twins Daily Draft Preview: Jacob Gonzalez

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Jacob Gonzalez is a college shortstop, former national freshman of the year, College World Series champion, and U.S. Collegiate National Team member. He may not be a shortstop long-term, but it's not the glove you're buying here.

Image courtesy of Andrew Nelles/The Tennessean

Over the next two weeks, we will provide you with profiles of 10 players the Twins could take with the 5th overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft.

Who is He?
Jacob Gonzalez is a three-year starter at shortstop for Ole Miss and helped bring the school their first-ever national championship in 2019, hitting .355 with an OPS slightly above 1.000. After checking it at #6 on the Consensus Big Board in June, Gonzalez has dropped to #11 on the latest not-yet-released update. He did not have the banner year people expected - his home run production has dropped (18 last year, 10 this year). He has slowed down as well (no triples or stolen bases this year after three and four, respectively, last year). But despite all of that, he's still an exceptional hitter, posting a .999 OPS with a career-high .564 slugging percentage, even though the homers and triples have fallen off.

Why the Twins Will Draft Him
The Twins have a type. In their data-driven analytical approach, certain players rise to the top. Gonzalez is that type of player. He's a professional hitter who takes good at-bats. He walks more than he strikes out. (Could you imagine a Twins lineup with guys with a penchant for striking out!?) He has both a high average and, at worst, average power. Indeed, that's oversimplifying things, but Gonzalez projects to be someone that can get it done in the box while having defensive value.
 
You could do worse than drafting a player who can play the most difficult position on the field and have an above-average hit tool and above-average power. Gonzalez will be a solid player, a first-division regular who probably bats second, third, or sixth in a competitive lineup.

Additionally, Gonzalez is a SoCal kid, and the Twins have always had a heavy scouting and draft presence in that area, and this is the team's preferred demographic. 

Why the Twins Won't Draft Him
The comments will solidify any argument presented.

Gonzalez isn't a Top 5 prospect in this draft. That's pretty open and shut. Everyone knows there are (at least) five better potential choices. He might be #6 on the Consensus Board right now, but he's #18 on MLB.com's latest update. Long-term, he probably won't cut it as a shortstop. He might need more arm strength to make it as a third baseman. He's not built for the corner outfield. So he's a second baseman? Is that what this organization needs? Taking Gonzalez doesn't check the "Best Player Available" or "Immediate Need' box. 

You don't take Gonzalez at five because he's not the right pick. This isn't potential #1 pick Brooks Lee didn't-think-we-had-a-shot-and-he-fell-into-our-laps like last year. That's how Paul Skenes or Wyatt Langford gets drafted by the Twins this year, not Jacob Gonzalez.

Of course, the talk of the Twins being interested in Gonzalez may be mainly in part to the club doing its due diligence, which fans should hope and expect them to do. The Twins have strung together several solid drafts, and that happens because they turn over every stone and exhaust every option. Just because the team is a fan of someone doesn't mean they will reach for them. (If the Twins leave Day 1 with an infielder, Colt Emerson would be a likelier target with their second pick.)

What do you think of Jacob Gonzalez as a prospect? How would you feel about him being the Twins pick at 5th overall? Join the discussion in the comments.

 

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[ashbury]

Once again the b-r.com link leads to the wrong player with a similar name.  The one we want is https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=gonzal006jac

Anyway, let some other team take this prospect.  The bat would be interesting for a SS, not as much otherwise.

[Mike Sixel]

No

I wasn't interested before the year started, now it's not even a consideration at all. 

[DocBauer]

Might not stick at SS, might not have the arm for 3B. And there is at least some question about pop/power and how much...or little...he might have. Wonderful bat though, but maybe a 2B?

Absolutely not a choice for the Twins. Correa, Miranda, Lewis, Lee, Julien, Severino, Ross, Schobel, Miller, Ortega, and others all say NO, grab someone at 5 with STUD potential.

[Dman]

He was never in consideration for me. Never liked the profile especially since he is slow runner.  Not a guy you take top 5.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him picked in the 20's.  Just say no.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I will be very disappointed if he is the pick at 5

[weitz41]

It'd have to be a huge under slot signing for this to make even a slight bit on sense at 5. At 5 I would hope if it's a hitter that has 3-4 stand out tools. not one, maybe 2. Didn't we draft like 6-8 SS last year and most look like 2nd or 3rd basemen?

If they aren't taking the one of the obvious top 5 then I'd prefer Teel, Dollander, Lowder or Meyers. 

[madtowntwin]

Dear MN Twins - Your draft location has risen from #13 to #5....Please don't leave your aspirations at the previous address. 

[sftwinsfan]

Not that he looks like a bad prospect, but just not at #5, I don't care what he's willing to sign for. Hopefully they won't have this opportunity often to draft top 5, especially in a year with strong talent at the top, so they need to use it to try to obtain an impact player. I hope they throw out whatever model they've been using, because it hasn't been producing much for results. 

[AlwaysinModeration]

From Keith Law’s last mock draft, he has González going to the Twins at #5, over Jenkins.  He writes:

“Several sources have told me that if Crews and Langford are gone, Gonzalez is the top player in the Twins’ draft model and he’d be the pick over the high schoolers…”

[AlwaysinModeration]

Law also has Langford going #1 to the Pirates and Crews falling to the Tigers at 3.

There are probably 10 players I’d prefer the Twins draft before González:

Crews - Skenes - Langford - Teel - Dollander - Lowder - Shaw - Troy - Bradfield - Clark

Not sure on Jenkins.