Is Carlos Correa on Track to Win a Gold Glove?

[Cody Schoenmann]

Despite enduring a frustrating start to the season offensively, Correa has maintained an elite level of play at shortstop. Is Correa on track to win his second career Gold Glove and first as a Twin?

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Through 69 games, the Minnesota Twins have the 19th-ranked offense in baseball while hitting a combined .232/.313/.403 (.716) with wRC+ of 100. Whether it be having a league-leading K% of 27%, the inability to score with the bases loaded, or veteran players expected to produce at an average or above-average clip not producing, the Twins offense has been the main reason why they haven't been able to significantly separate themselves from other teams in what is considered to be one of the worst divisions in baseball history. 

The most notable veteran player yet to produce as expected is the recently signed-to-a-six-year-$200-million-guaranteed-contract star shortstop Carlos Correa. 

Despite hitting only .219/.304/.424 (.728) with a wRC+ of 101 and K% of 24.5%, which is on track to be the highest of his career, Correa's offensive performance seems to be trending upward after hitting a go-ahead eighth-inning grand slam against the Toronto Blue Jays on June 10 and a walk-off two-run home run against the Milwaukee Brewers on June 13 while also hitting .292/.370/.750 (1.120) over his last seven games.

When Correa struggles to contribute for the Twins at the plate, he can still create immense value at baseball's most challenging position. Through 57 games played, Carlos Correa has been nothing short of incredible this year while playing shortstop. 

Let's begin by looking at Correa's 2023 numbers so far.

Through 479 1/3 innings played, Correa has had 190 defensive chances, which takes into account putouts, assists, and errors. In those 190 chances, Correa has 78 putouts, 109 assists, and only three errors, generating a fielding percentage of .984, slightly higher than his career average of .981. Correa has also generated 20 double plays, with nine started and 11 turned. 

To look at more advanced defensive metrics, Correa currently possesses an Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) of -0.9, which measures slightly below average. UZR is a stat that measures how many runs, better or worse, that player is relative to the average player at that position, so in Correa's case, UZR measures how well Correa has performed compared to other shortstops in baseball. UZR, like Outs Above Average (OAA), and Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), should not be taken as objective truth, primarily because they can only provide a partial story.

With this in mind, let's look at how Correa's main competitors for the 2023 American League Gold Glove Award for Shortstop look when it comes to UZR. Correa's top four competitors appear to be Bobby Witt Jr., Wander Franco, Javier Baez, and Jorge Mateo. Witt Jr. has a UZR of -0.6, Franco has a UZR of 2.0, Baez has a UZR of -3.2, and Mateo has a UZR of 4.6.

Correa ranks behind three out of the four shortstops listed above in UZR, but that doesn't necessarily mean that he is a worse defensive shortstop than them. 

Another important defensive metric to consider is Outs Above Average, or OAA. Correa has an OAA of one, which currently ranks 14th in baseball. OAA, similarly to UZR, should not be taken as an objectively quantifiable metric. OAA, when discussing infielders, considers how far an infielder must travel to get the ball, how long it takes them to get there, and how far he is from the base the runner is heading to. 

Witt Jr. has an OAA of six, Franco has an OAA of eight, Baez has an OAA of seven, and Mateo has an OAA of two.

Although Correa's top four competitors all have higher OAAs, that, once again, doesn't necessarily mean they are better defensive shortstops than Correa.

Since OAA highly values the skill of shortstops and how long it takes them to get to the ball, it would make sense to assume that speedier shortstops tend to have higher OAA than those who are less fast. When looking at Correa's competitors, all four have higher sprint speeds, with Witt Jr., whose sprint speed is in the 100th percentile, and Mateo, whose sprint speed is in the 99th percentile, having significantly higher sprint speeds. Correa defensive prowess appears to be devalued, while players such as Baez, Witt Jr., and Mateo's perceived defensive aptitude is getting boosted by their speed and ability to cover ground.  

Lastly, Defensive Runs Saved, or DRS, attempts to quantify how many runs a defender has saved by considering a player's entire defensive performance. Specifically, DRS considers errors, range, arm strength, and one's ability to start and turn double plays. Essentially, DRS and UZR are the same, which is illustrated in how Correa compares to his competitors' DRS rankings. 

Correa currently owns a DRS of two, which ranks 18th in all of baseball. Witt Jr. owns a DRS of -3, Franco owns a DRS of 10, Baez owns a DRS of three, and Mateo owns a DRS of six. Correa ranks four out of five in DRS, beating out only Witt Jr.

If Gold Glove voting came down to exclusively sabermetric rankings, it would be nearly impossible for Correa to win this year's Gold Glove award for AL shortstops. However, defensive sabermetrics only tell part of the story regarding how good of a defender a particular player may or may not be. Correa has an elite glove as well as what may be the best arm of all shortstops in baseball. Correa may have a shorter range than shortstops like Franco and Mateo, but he makes up for it by having immense skill and an excellent sense of where to be at any given moment. With this taken into account, voters, many of whom place a tremendous amount of value on the "eye test," may be more inclined to vote for Correa simply because he plays the position so smoothly. 

If voting occurred today for who would be the American League Gold Glove winner for shortstop, I think Tampa Bay Rays shortstop Wander Franco would win, with Correa finishing in the top three of voting, although there technically are no runner-ups for Gold Glove voting, alongside Baltimore Orioles shortstop Jorge Mateo. Franco currently sports a UZR of 2.0, an OAA of eight, which leads AL shortstops, and a DRS of ten, which are all better numbers than what Correa owns. Also, Franco has played in 542 1/3 innings, which is 63 more innings than what Correa has played this season. 

Wishfully thinking, if Correa can stay healthy by managing his plantar fasciitis, avoid other forms of injury, and accrue a larger sample size while performing the way he has all year defensively, then there could be an opportunity for Correa to win the 2023 AL Gold Glove Award for shortstops. Until then, Correa needs to make up ground if he wants to usurp shortstops the likes of Franco and Mateo. 

Do you think Correa is on track to win his first Gold Glove as a Twin? Who would you vote for?

View full article

[Linus]

I have no idea. All I know is that whenever I watch him he makes all the plays he should along with some he shouldn’t. Having to start on the dirt probably restricts his range. I would pay money just to watch the man throw. His arm strength is obvious but he is also incredibly accurate. That’s a combination not often seen. 

[Eris]

I think the description of OAA is not quite correct. 
 

From MLB

Outs Above Average for infielders takes the following factors into account.

• How far the fielder has to go to reach the ball ("the intercept point").
• How much time he has to get there.
• How far he then is from the base the runner is heading to.

Therefore, it is a value that should be independent of positioning. (Or I think that the skill associated with good positioning is not captured by this method of analysis)  

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/outs-above-average#

[Cody Schoenmann]

24 minutes ago, Eris said:

I think the description of OAA is not quite correct. 
 

From MLB

Outs Above Average for infielders takes the following factors into account.

• How far the fielder has to go to reach the ball ("the intercept point").
• How much time he has to get there.
• How far he then is from the base the runner is heading to.

Therefore, it is a value that should be independent of positioning. (Or I think that the skill associated with good positioning is not captured by this method of analysis)  

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/statcast/outs-above-average#

Good call! I falsely claimed that OAA values positioning when I meant to write that it values skill. Thanks for letting me know. My point still stands with how speedier and more agile shortstops get favored more often when it comes to OAA since they have a greater ability to get to certain balls in play. 

Edited June 17, 2023 by Cody Schoenmann

[Cody Schoenmann]

2 hours ago, Linus said:

I have no idea. All I know is that whenever I watch him he makes all the plays he should along with some he shouldn’t. Having to start on the dirt probably restricts his range. I would pay money just to watch the man throw. His arm strength is obvious but he is also incredibly accurate. That’s a combination not often seen. 

I agree that watching Correa play shortstop has been one of the more enjoyable parts of the 2023 season. He makes what should look like incredible tough plays to make look rather routine, plus he is one of the more sure-handed and strongest throwing infielders I have ever seen. This is why I think the "eye test" element of Correa's play at shortstop may sway some voters towards voting for him. Correa also won the Platinum Glove in 2021 while playing shortstop for the Astros, so his combination of pedigree plus the fact that he is so fun to watch might benefit his case for winning. We shall see!

[Schmoeman5]

A lot of Gold Gloves have been won on past performance. It's a popularity contest sometimes. As per the Mattingly over Hrbek comparison. And if you're using the metrics, you have to use them all the time. Not just when they fit an agenda. 2 cases in point. The official scorer gave hits on balls that were errors in the past 2 days. The Lewis overthrow and Juliens grounder last night. My point being is that scorers make decisions on how it affects their guy.

[mnfireman]

Probably not, unless his "defensive metrics" improveas they are more heavily weighed than anything else. The eye test doesn't seem to matter as much anymore, but at least reputation, offense and popularity have seemingly been removed from the award (see Jeter, Derek).

[Cody Schoenmann]

1 hour ago, Schmoeman5 said:

A lot of Gold Gloves have been won on past performance. It's a popularity contest sometimes. As per the Mattingly over Hrbek comparison. And if you're using the metrics, you have to use them all the time. Not just when they fit an agenda. 2 cases in point. The official scorer gave hits on balls that were errors in the past 2 days. The Lewis overthrow and Juliens grounder last night. My point being is that scorers make decisions on how it affects their guy.

I agree that Gold Glove voting, for the most part, tends to be a popularity contest and I think that might work in Correa's favor. If the Twins are able to finish off the season relatively strong and Correa stays healthy and keeps improving offensively while continuing to be a plus defender, then I think Correa winning the Gold Glove could be a real possibility, At the same time, the fact that Gold Glove voting tends to be a popularity contest might hinder Correa's chances of winning since the Rays are the "it" team in baseball right now and Wander Franco is the face of their franchise and one of the future stars at baseball. Also, Franco has been better than Correa in almost every aspect of the game, so that helps his case as well. 

[Cody Schoenmann]

2 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

I doubt he has a chance unless he greatly improves his offense.  You might say, what do you mean... gold glove is all about defense.  I say, it is NOT all about defense as I have seen over the years many players with excellent defense (and better defensive stats) lose the GG to players with adequate defense and great offense.  Hrbek lost several GG's to Mattingly while he was much better defensively as just one example.

I agree that a player's offensive game matters when voters consider who should win the Gold Glove award for any given position. Another example of this phenomenon occurring was last year when Arraez finished top three in Gold Glove Award voting for first base, although there, as I stated in my story, technically no runner-ups for Gold Glove voting. I think Arraez finishing top three in AL Gold Glove voting for first base had a lot more to do with the fact that he hit .316 more than his defensive prowess. 

[Schmoeman5]

13 minutes ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

I agree that a player's offensive game matters when voters consider who should win the Gold Glove award for any given position. Another example of this phenomenon occurring was last year when Arraez finished top three in Gold Glove Award voting for first base, although there, as I stated in my story, technically no runner-ups for Gold Glove voting. I think Arraez finishing top three in AL Gold Glove voting for first base had a lot more to do with the fact that he hit .316 more than his defensive prowess. 

Winning a Silver Slugger award SHOULDN'T have anything to do with a Gold Glove award. But unfortunately it does 

[DJL44]

7 hours ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

Good call! I falsely claimed that OAA values positioning when I meant to write that it values skill. Thanks for letting me know. My point still stands with how speedier and more agile shortstops get favored more often when it comes to OAA since they have a greater ability to get to certain balls in play. 

Isn't the whole point to turn balls in play into outs?

[Cody Schoenmann]

30 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Isn't the whole point to turn balls in play into outs?

Yes, but I misinterpreted OAA by thinking that it values where the fielders are positioned when it actually measures how well a fielder reacts once the ball is put in play, by measuring how long it takes them to get to the ball, and what the fielder does once they get the ball. If I am interpreting it correctly, OAA doesn't take into account what the fielder does before the pitch is thrown.  

Edited June 17, 2023 by Cody Schoenmann

[Cody Schoenmann]

5 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

Winning a Silver Slugger award SHOULDN'T have anything to do with a Gold Glove award. But unfortunately it does 

It is unfortunate, but sometimes a fielder is so good at their position, like Buxton in CF in 2017 for example, that they just can't be ignored. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Who knows?  If there is one thing that I find most unpredictable at the end of the season it's Gold Glove awards.  I'm generally not an "eye test" kind of guy when it comes to baseball, but I find the fielding stats (old-fangled or new-fangled) to be puzzling sometimes when it comes to identifying the best fielders.  Sometimes it feels pretty random.

[rv78]

First - Who Cares? Not me. 

Second - If he can't hit anymore and all he can do is help defensively his $33.3M for 6 years is a huge overpay.

[Cody Schoenmann]

50 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Who knows?  If there is one thing that I find most unpredictable at the end of the season it's Gold Glove awards.  I'm generally not an "eye test" kind of guy when it comes to baseball, but I find the fielding stats (old-fangled or new-fangled) to be puzzling sometimes when it comes to identifying the best fielders.  Sometimes it feels pretty random.

Yeah, I agree with you for the most part. It does feel extremely random and the three finalists that I predicted could easily not be in the running come of the end of the season. I am fairly confident that if voting happened today that Wander Franco would win, but other shortstops like Zach Neto, Jeremy Pena, or Bo Bichette could easily emerge as runner-ups or the winner at the end of the season.