Is Carlos Correa on Track to Win a Gold Glove?

Through 69 games, the Minnesota Twins have the 19th-ranked offense in baseball while hitting a combined .232/.313/.403 (.716) with wRC+ of 100. Whether it be having a league-leading K% of 27%, the inability to score with the bases loaded, or veteran players expected to produce at an average or above-average clip not producing, the Twins offense has been the main reason why they haven't been able to significantly separate themselves from other teams in what is considered to be one of the worst divisions in baseball history. 

Despite hitting only .219/.304/.424 (.728) with a wRC+ of 101 and K% of 24.5%, which is on track to be the highest of his career, Correa's offensive performance seems to be trending upward after hitting a go-ahead eighth-inning grand slam against the Toronto Blue Jays on June 10 and a walk-off two-run home run against the Milwaukee Brewers on June 13 while also hitting .292/.370/.750 (1.120) over his last seven games.

When Correa struggles to contribute for the Twins at the plate, he can still create immense value at baseball's most challenging position. Through 57 games played, Carlos Correa has been nothing short of incredible this year while playing shortstop. 

Let's begin by looking at Correa's 2023 numbers so far.

Through 479 1/3 innings played, Correa has had 190 defensive chances, which takes into account putouts, assists, and errors. In those 190 chances, Correa has 78 putouts, 109 assists, and only three errors, generating a fielding percentage of .984, slightly higher than his career average of .981. Correa has also generated 20 double plays, with nine started and 11 turned. 

To look at more advanced defensive metrics, Correa currently possesses an Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) of -0.9, which measures slightly below average. UZR is a stat that measures how many runs, better or worse, that player is relative to the average player at that position, so in Correa's case, UZR measures how well Correa has performed compared to other shortstops in baseball. UZR, like Outs Above Average (OAA), and Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), should not be taken as objective truth, primarily because they can only provide a partial story.

With this in mind, let's look at how Correa's main competitors for the 2023 American League Gold Glove Award for Shortstop look when it comes to UZR. Correa's top four competitors appear to be Bobby Witt Jr., Wander Franco, Javier Baez, and Jorge Mateo. Witt Jr. has a UZR of -0.6, Franco has a UZR of 2.0, Baez has a UZR of -3.2, and Mateo has a UZR of 4.6.

Correa ranks behind three out of the four shortstops listed above in UZR, but that doesn't necessarily mean that he is a worse defensive shortstop than them. 

Another important defensive metric to consider is Outs Above Average, or OAA. Correa has an OAA of one, which currently ranks 14th in baseball. OAA, similarly to UZR, should not be taken as an objectively quantifiable metric. OAA, when discussing infielders, considers how far an infielder must travel to get the ball, how long it takes them to get there, and how far he is from the base the runner is heading to. 

Witt Jr. has an OAA of six, Franco has an OAA of eight, Baez has an OAA of seven, and Mateo has an OAA of two.

Although Correa's top four competitors all have higher OAAs, that, once again, doesn't necessarily mean they are better defensive shortstops than Correa.

Since OAA highly values the skill of shortstops and how long it takes them to get to the ball, it would make sense to assume that speedier shortstops tend to have higher OAA than those who are less fast. When looking at Correa's competitors, all four have higher sprint speeds, with Witt Jr., whose sprint speed is in the 100th percentile, and Mateo, whose sprint speed is in the 99th percentile, having significantly higher sprint speeds. Correa defensive prowess appears to be devalued, while players such as Baez, Witt Jr., and Mateo's perceived defensive aptitude is getting boosted by their speed and ability to cover ground.  

Lastly, Defensive Runs Saved, or DRS, attempts to quantify how many runs a defender has saved by considering a player's entire defensive performance. Specifically, DRS considers errors, range, arm strength, and one's ability to start and turn double plays. Essentially, DRS and UZR are the same, which is illustrated in how Correa compares to his competitors' DRS rankings. 

Correa currently owns a DRS of two, which ranks 18th in all of baseball. Witt Jr. owns a DRS of -3, Franco owns a DRS of 10, Baez owns a DRS of three, and Mateo owns a DRS of six. Correa ranks four out of five in DRS, beating out only Witt Jr.

If Gold Glove voting came down to exclusively sabermetric rankings, it would be nearly impossible for Correa to win this year's Gold Glove award for AL shortstops. However, defensive sabermetrics only tell part of the story regarding how good of a defender a particular player may or may not be. Correa has an elite glove as well as what may be the best arm of all shortstops in baseball. Correa may have a shorter range than shortstops like Franco and Mateo, but he makes up for it by having immense skill and an excellent sense of where to be at any given moment. With this taken into account, voters, many of whom place a tremendous amount of value on the "eye test," may be more inclined to vote for Correa simply because he plays the position so smoothly. 

If voting occurred today for who would be the American League Gold Glove winner for shortstop, I think Tampa Bay Rays shortstop Wander Franco would win, with Correa finishing in the top three of voting, although there technically are no runner-ups for Gold Glove voting, alongside Baltimore Orioles shortstop Jorge Mateo. Franco currently sports a UZR of 2.0, an OAA of eight, which leads AL shortstops, and a DRS of ten, which are all better numbers than what Correa owns. Also, Franco has played in 542 1/3 innings, which is 63 more innings than what Correa has played this season. 

Wishfully thinking, if Correa can stay healthy by managing his plantar fasciitis, avoid other forms of injury, and accrue a larger sample size while performing the way he has all year defensively, then there could be an opportunity for Correa to win the 2023 AL Gold Glove Award for shortstops. Until then, Correa needs to make up ground if he wants to usurp shortstops the likes of Franco and Mateo. 

Do you think Correa is on track to win his first Gold Glove as a Twin? Who would you vote for?