Article: Twins MLB Draft Profile: Sean Manaea, SP

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They picked JO last year at 32, Bard later in the supp round, have the 43 pick in a very deep college pitching class this year, and traded for Meyers/May. A top 5 pick should be a franchise changing player, not a big league average player. Is Manaea a franchise changing pitcher? He could be. Law agrees with Mr.Nelson in the fact Manaea could be special if people can find that Cape cod magic again:

 

"Manaea profiles more as a league-average big-league starter right now, but a team that thinks he can recapture his look from the summer of 2012 might take him higher than that in the draft"

 

Was the Cape Cod performance a mirage? I have no idea but you know the Twins front office has done their homework and if they take Manaea at 4 they think he is legit.

 

Exactly why BPA doesn't exactly fit how you would like it to with the Twins. The only way they are EVER going to build a good pitching staff is through the draft. And if you never use your high picks on high-talent pitching, you're never going to have an above average rotation unless a miracle happens with a guy you didn't see coming. You can talk about trades, but the Twins likely won't ever trade the type of talent that brings no-doubt frontline starters back either (guys like Sano/Buxton).

 

Guys like Berrios/May/Meyer are great, but their odds of being frontline ACE types are not. Berrios has some good stuff, but lacks any projection, and because of that he won't be a frontline type when he gets to the majors. May has swing and miss stuff but lacks control, so he's a mid-rotation-peak or power bullpen arm. Meyer has #1 potential, but the odds of him harnessing everything to get there isn't particularly high (he'd be regarded even higher if it was).

 

So I think out of our future rotation guys, we have a #2 (Meyer), maybe a couple #3's (Gibson, Berrios), and whole mess of back of the rotation guys (Scott Diamond might be a #3, but he looks a lot like a lefty Nick Blackburn to me) ...Which is still not the rotation of a contender in my book.

 

So drafting a pitcher who, in Keith Law's words, profiles as a league average pitcher helps fix our ace problem? Manaea has upside to be much more than a league average pitcher but he has significantly more question marks than normal college pitchers do to. Just because we want/need top of the rotation pitching doesn't mean it is there.

[Steve Lein]

My response in no way was for or against drafting Manea specifically, only about how the Twins must build a pitching staff through the draft with the way they operate. If you can't get a potential ace, you might be best served by loading up with #2's/#3's (which are still guys who go in the 1st round).

 

But I'd rather have Bryant in this draft over Manea.

[nicksaviking]

I really dislike how the draft guru's project starters. Manaea will be a three? I've heard the same thing about Meyer and May and plenty of other supposedly high strikeout arms. Number threes aren't generally high strikeout arms. High strikeout guys likely end up as front of the rotation arms, or bust out to the bullpen or not make it at all.

 

For some reason the experts seem to think that the fair way to peg their potential is to settle on the halfway point bewteen these scenarios even though the halfway point is the least likely outcome.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I think there are two totally realistic comps for Sean Manaea:

 

Ceiling - Francisco Liriano when he's on his game. Swing-and-miss fastball, wipeout slider. Ace potential.

 

Floor - Francisco Liriano when he's off his game. Frustrating to the point you wish he'd get sent down or just go away... but really you just want him to be the old Frankie.

 

(I actually think Manaea has a slightly lower floor. Maybe Jonathan Sanchez at his worst... but the point remains, his range is somewhere between "ace" and "so frustrated I want to scratch my eyes out.")

[Shane Wahl]

I think there are two totally realistic comps for Sean Manaea:

 

Ceiling - Francisco Liriano when he's on his game. Swing-and-miss fastball, wipeout slider. Ace potential.

 

Floor - Francisco Liriano when he's off his game. Frustrating to the point you wish he'd get sent down or just go away... but really you just want him to be the old Frankie.

 

(I actually think Manaea has a slightly lower floor. Maybe Jonathan Sanchez at his worst... but the point remains, his range is somewhere between "ace" and "so frustrated I want to scratch my eyes out.")

 

This is a decent post, though the "headcase" situations are different. Manaea was just a lazy student, there is nothing about his work as a baseball player since joining ISU to suggest that this is still a problem.

 

I have Manaea as ranked third behind Appel and Gray.

[Jim H]

I have a little problem with this labeling of pitchers as 1 through 5. Realistically, even very good pitchers, often vary from year to year. In truth, Carlos Silva was actually a number 3 almost a 2 a couple of years with the Twins. He also had a year where he wasn't even a 5. As good as Bert was he really only had one year where he was a 1. Very few pitchers are like Johan Santana who had 5 or 6 straight years where you could really call him a 1.

 

What you are really saying about most of the "potential no. 1" pitchers, whether they are draftees or minor leaguers, is that if they are lucky and healthy and figure things out, they may be a number 1 some year in their career. You hope they will fill the rotation year after year as a "good" pitcher. Very few are Verlanders.

[Shane Wahl]

Here, here, Jim H. Good point. And besides, the Twins simply need big league-caliber pitchers right now anyway!

[30whales]

I don't have any reason why but I am against the Twins drafting him. Maybe its because of the Liriano comps being thrown around.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

This is a decent post, though the "headcase" situations are different. Manaea was just a lazy student, there is nothing about his work as a baseball player since joining ISU to suggest that this is still a problem.

 

I have Manaea as ranked third behind Appel and Gray.

 

I'm using the word "frustrating" more as a "I-know-you-have-better-stuff-than-that-why-aren't-you-better-than-this" sorta way.

[Thrylos]

Buxton is a 9--probably the most talented outfield prospect we've ever had.

 

Ever is a long time, especially when it includes a certain hall of famer outfielder.

[Twins Twerp]

Im sure glad I dont have to make the decision. Thhe risk with pitchers is so high. I would have taken Appel last year at 2. After about a year I am very happy with buxton. Do we need pitching? Yes. Does everyone need oitching yes. But if you can draft an impact bat who will be around for 10 years in your system...dont you have too.

 

On another note, I dont know how I like the laid back demeanor of Manaea.

[clutterheart]

BPA - and I don't think the BPA will be Manaea.

Don't over think it. Take the best player. If Bryant is there, he should be taken.

If the Twins think Fraizer is the BPA, then he should be taken.

 

None of these guys will be ready until 2015 at the very earliest. Who knows what the system might look like in 2015 / 2016? Not me. Maybe Sano, E. Rosario, Meyer, Gibson, May, Kepler, Buxton all flame out due to injury or lack of talent.

Or maybe some of their super young pitchers pan out. Guys like Berrios, R. Rosario, Baxendale, Lo and others become aces.

 

So many things can happen in the course of a MiLB season to lose out on top talent just because of immediate needs is a potentially huge waste.

[cmb0252]

BPA - and I don't think the BPA will be Manaea.

Don't over think it. Take the best player. If Bryant is there, he should be taken.

If the Twins think Fraizer is the BPA, then he should be taken.

 

None of these guys will be ready until 2015 at the very earliest. Who knows what the system might look like in 2015 / 2016? Not me. Maybe Sano, E. Rosario, Meyer, Gibson, May, Kepler, Buxton all flame out due to injury or lack of talent.

Or maybe some of their super young pitchers pan out. Guys like Berrios, R. Rosario, Baxendale, Lo and others become aces.

 

So many things can happen in the course of a MiLB season to lose out on top talent just because of immediate needs is a potentially huge waste.

 

Couldn't agree more. If, like Mr.Nelson said, there is something the coaches see as fixable which would lead him to being the BPA then take Manaea. If not, pass and grab pitching in the later rounds like last year. A pitcher with at best a 65 slider, a 60 fastball, and a 55 change up really doesn't excite me too much. His saving grace is he is LH and hides the ball well which makes his stuff play up.

[Reginald Maudling's Shin]

Ever is a long time, especially when it includes a certain hall of famer outfielder.

Puckett? He wasn't even close to Buxton as a prospect. Check out Kirby's HR totals in the minors.

[Reginald Maudling's Shin]

Would it be reasonable to rank Manaea slightly below Gausman and Zimmer?

[gunnarthor]

Would it be reasonable to rank Manaea slightly below Gausman and Zimmer?

 

Yeah, I'd imagine he'd get ranked somewhere in the 50 range of BA's prospect rankings. Those two debuted in the mid 20s, I believe.

[Mike Sixel]

Yeah, I'd imagine he'd get ranked somewhere in the 50 range of BA's prospect rankings. Those two debuted in the mid 20s, I believe.

 

Agreed.

[3rd Inning Stretch]

Was removed before the game today due to injury. You can now surely drop him from any consideration for #4.

[Mike Sixel]

Was removed before the game today due to injury. You can now surely drop him from any consideration for #4.

 

Agreed.

[mk]

Depending on the injury, I think/hope Manaea is being undervalued by everyone except the Twins. Despite losing a couple of ticks on the fastball, he's still dominating everyone put in front of him this year. Even if you take away everything he did on the Cape in 2012, Manea is still a 6' 5" 230 lbs lefty with a lower ERA and better K/9 rate than Appel or Gray.

 

Also, Manaea showed his best stuff in the summer of 2012. Maybe it's reasonable to think it takes him longer to find his groove and his summer of 2013 will be just as good as 2012. Maybe not the right strategy for someone trying to make millions on draft day, but for a professional, isn't it better to be lights out in the summer vs. March and April?

[TRex]

Was removed before the game today due to injury. You can now surely drop him from any consideration for #4.-3rd Inning Stretch

 

... or greatly decrease his signing bonus! If the Twins have him at #4 on their board because they think he can recover his Cape Cod form I would mind signing him for $750,000 under slot.

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A college pitcher with injury concerns to go with the last two college pitchers we drafted in the first round that missed significant time is exactly what we need.

[Seth Stohs]

Baseball America's Jim Callis's most recent mock draft has Manaea going 32nd overall to the Yankees.

 

Mock Draft 2.0: Shades Of Gray - BaseballAmerica.com

[InfraRen]

Jon Heyman tweeted he's done for the year today.

 

I understand the risks with this guy, but the potential he flashed has me wondering a bit - will we (and other teams) regret passing on him? With the injury reveal, it's a fair bet that this caused his "fall" this season in scouts eyes. His numbers were still dang good tho.

 

The baseball draft is different. You draft a guy for what he CAN be, and Manaea could definitely be your #1 ace. It's too bad this injury has clouded his stock.

 

Who knows. Maybe the Twins DO think that way. If the injury isnt too fearsome long-term, why not? I had written him off these past couple weeks but if somehow we did take him, I'd get it and even be pretty happy about it.

[diehardtwinsfan]

yeah, I wonder now if he'll fall to the second round, and if by chance we could get Stewart to sign for 3M, that might be enough savings to get Manaea in the 2nd.. I'm dreaming, I know it won't happen, but I can still dream.

[InfraRen]

yeah, I wonder now if he'll fall to the second round, and if by chance we could get Stewart to sign for 3M, that might be enough savings to get Manaea in the 2nd.. I'm dreaming, I know it won't happen, but I can still dream.

 

Your dream is uber-dreamy. Hey, never know - I NEVER thought the Vikings would get the 3 guys they got in the 1st round this year. You never know! Yanks are probably biggest threat end of round 1.