Minnesota Twins 2017 Draft Retrospective: Lewis Early, Ober Late

[Cody Christie]

Minnesota's first draft under the current front office included a critical decision with the number one overall pick. However, that isn't the only player that has impacted the Twins from the 2017 draft class.

Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Major League Baseball's 2023 Draft is scheduled to start on July 9, 2023. Each team prepares for the draft with a specific plan, and sometimes those plans play out better than others. To prepare fans for the upcoming draft, this series will examine recent Twins drafts and how those players have performed so far in their professional careers. 

First Round: Royce Lewis, Brent Rooker
The Twins had an intriguing choice at the top of the 2017 MLB Draft. Multiple players were in consideration for the top overall pick, including Hunter Greene, MacKenzie Gore, Brendan McKay, and Kyle Wright. Minnesota took Lewis and signed him to an under-slot deal which they could use on other picks in later rounds. Greene and Wright have provided positive value in the early years of their careers while the Twins are waiting on Lewis.

Lewis was considered one of baseball's top prospects for multiple seasons, but now he is recovering from his second ACL surgery. At Twins Daily, the minor league writers had difficulty deciding whether Lewis or Brooks Lee should be the organization's top prospect. Lewis began his rehab assignment on Thursday, so he has a chance to rejoin the Twins next month.

Minnesota's current front office has loved drafting college bats, and Rooker was the first player to fit this profile. The Twins selected him with the 35th overall pick, a competitive balance before the second round. He played 65 games for the Twins with a 96 OPS+, and the team included him in the Taylor Rogers trade with the Padres. In recent seasons, he's bounced around to a few different organizations before finding a home with the A's. Rooker is leading baseball in SLG, OPS, and OPS+. It didn't look like the Twins had room for him, so it's good he is getting an opportunity for a bad team.

Second Round: Landon Leach
The Twins used their second-round pick on Leach, a high school pitcher from Canada. He pitched fewer than 60 innings in the Twins organization and topped out in Low-A during the 2021 season. Last season, he pitched in the Braves organization and is currently a free agent. Minnesota passed over multiple players that have accumulated 2.4 WAR or more, including Griffin Canning and Daulton Varsho. 

Third Round: Blayne Enlow
The Twins used some of the money they saved on Lewis to coax Enlow out of his commitment to LSU. He was one of two players in the third round to sign for $2,000,000. Enlow pitched well in the low minors with a sub-3.50 ERA and improving strikeout rates. Unfortunately, he underwent Tommy John surgery in June 2021. Since that time, Minnesota has added and removed him from the 40-man roster. Now in his age-24 season, Enlow is pitching well at Double-A with a 3.56 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and 11.0 K/9. If he continues pitching this well, he can put himself back into the team's long-term plans.  

12th Round: Bailey Ober
Ober has established himself at the big-league level, and he looks like a steal from the 12th round of the 2017 MLB Draft. He's accumulated more WAR than any other Twins draft pick from that class. Minnesota sent him to Triple-A to begin the season, but Tyler Mahle's season-ending injury firmly puts Ober into the rotation's fourth spot. He's made 35 big-league starts and has a 117 ERA+ for his career. Ober projects to be in the Twins' rotation for the better part of the next decade, which is an excellent value from a late-round pick.

Other Notable Picks: Andrew Bechtold, Mark Contreras, Calvin Faucher, Charlie Barnes
Bechtold and Contreras may never be significant contributors at the big-league level, but both have provided depth to the Twins organization. Contreras played in 28 games for the Twins last season and struggled with a .441 OPS. He's off to a solid start to the 2023 campaign with a .896 OPS with nine doubles and five homers at Triple-A. Bechtold is also a regular in the Saints line-up, and he has ten extra-base hits in his first 25 games this season. 

Two other Twins draft picks from the 2017 draft class have made their big-league debuts. Minnesota took Barnes in the fourth round and he pitched his way to Triple-A during his third professional season. He made nine appearances for the 2021 Twins and has pitched the last two seasons in the Korean Baseball Organization. Faucher was the team’s 10th round pick and he was included in the Nelson Cruz trade with Tampa. He’s bounced between Triple-A and the big leagues over the last two seasons with a 5.86 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP across 35 1/3 innings during his MLB stints.

How should the Twins feel about the 2017 MLB Draft? Did they make the right pick at the top? Will Enlow impact the big-league roster? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

OTHER POSTS IN THE SERIES
-2016 Draft Retrospective

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[jmlease1]

Not a bad draft. Lewis, Rooker, Ober, Contreras, and Barnes all made it to MLB with the Twins, and Lewis' problems have had nothing to do with talent or ability to translate his tools into production, only injury which you just can't predict.

(admittedly, Rooker & Contreras didn't really produce anything for the Twins and Barnes was a fill-in...but just making it to MLB is hard!)

Leach was a miss, but a lot of 2nd round picks bust. especially teenage pitchers.

Enlow looks like he might be back on track and he's another player whose problem is entirely tied to injury rather than to ability. If he's back on the 40-man after this season and finishes in AAA, that will be very nice.

Was Lewis the right pick? It's still too early to tell. Wright had one good season, but at 27 hasn't really produced for Atlanta, despite pitching in parts of 6 different seasons for them. 2.6 bWAR over 6 is not great. Greene definitely looks good for the Reds, but McKay is a bust, and while Gore has been pretty good this season his control has been shaky his whole pro career and I question whether he'll be looking good by fall.

Not one single star has emerged from the top 10 picks to this point (Greene is the closest) reminding us again what a crapshoot the MLB draft still is. Only 1 all-star appearance from anyone in the 1st round to date (Trevor Rogers, and that's looking a little fluky).

It'll be interesting to see if Rooker holds up all season or if he's just shining on a truly terrible team. I can't fault the Twins for moving him; he didn't look good in 2021 for the Twins and got a fair number of chances. He couldn't crack the KC lineup last season either, despite them being terrible and needing hitting. It was pretty understandable if people thought he was a AAAA player at his age, and it looks like he's made some substantial changes in his approach this year. Unusual for a guy to figure it out at 28, but good for him.

[Dman]

He has to perform but Lewis still could be the right pick at number 1.  If he remains injury prone then not so much.  Right now Green looks pretty good though. Lewis might have to be All Star caliber to beat Green out unless Green's arm does not hold up. 

I never liked the Rooker pick as he was older with just the one great college season.  I wanted a pitcher there.  Looks like maybe he will end up being what the Twins thought he might be just too late for the Twins.

I never knew anything about Leach other than he was helium pick.  Wasn't thrilled with that one as I wanted the Minnesota pitcher there but I don't think Sam Carlson has worked out any better than Leach.

I really liked the Enlow pick at the time.  Still not sure if Enlow is gonna make it or not but I did like the pick based on potential.

I never gave Ober a chance to be this good.  I thought maybe a reliever tops but he turned out to be far better than I could have imagined for a 12th round pick.  Looks like Varland might follow in his footsteps as a day three pick that can start.

Bechtold was always going to be about the bat and he is getting closer but he is running out of time to get there.  It was a good risk reward pick there IMO.  I also liked De la Torre but he never could hit at all. Total guess swing on every pitch. Excellent in the field just too bad he couldn't hit much at all really.

[2wins87]

17 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Was Lewis the right pick? It's still too early to tell. Wright had one good season, but at 27 hasn't really produced for Atlanta, despite pitching in parts of 6 different seasons for them. 2.6 bWAR over 6 is not great. Greene definitely looks good for the Reds, but McKay is a bust, and while Gore has been pretty good this season his control has been shaky his whole pro career and I question whether he'll be looking good by fall.

Not one single star has emerged from the top 10 picks to this point (Greene is the closest) reminding us again what a crapshoot the MLB draft still is. Only 1 all-star appearance from anyone in the 1st round to date (Trevor Rogers, and that's looking a little fluky).

Honestly it's looking like a pretty weak draft class overall, especially for position players.  Lewis could still end up being the best of the class.

On the pitching side there is Drew Rasmussen, Hunter Greene, and Tanner Houck as the best so far with a decent number of other solid pitchers around the same level as Wright, Gore, and Rogers who you mentioned.

On the position player side the best players so far are Dalton Varsho and Taylor Walls, and beyond that it looks like a lot of role players.

[mikelink45]

I am with the last commentator.  It is a weak set,  Put Rooker with Sabato as the what the Hell were they thinking picks.  Leach was a total miss, Enlow has looked pretty bad up to this year.  Let's hope for some value.  If Lewis has another injury and is out this class does not show value. 

[gunnarthor]

I think the logic was, more or less, sound. Lewis and Adell were my favorite guys and Adell just wasn't in the mix to go 1. Leech/Rooker seemed like reaches at where they were picked but Leech had a lot of helium so it wasn't a crazy pick. Enlow was a big overslot pick so, as we were told, it was like having another first rounder. 

So the logic is easy to follow. The results have been a bit disappointing but that's the reality of the draft. If Lewis was healthy, this draft might look completely different. . 

[bird]

If Royce Lewis blossoms, the draft is a success. If he doesn't, it's a bad draft despite Ober. One thing I wonder: the old adage was that if three prospects contributed from a Rule 4 draft, you did okay. Given all the changes in the draft and development world, what should today's adage be? I mean, I'm looking at a lot of drafts where a few more than three become respectable contributors.

[bird]

It should be noted that Drew Rassmussen was selected by the Rays but did not sign. The following year he was a 6th round choice of Arizona, who then traded him to the Rays. So when comparing 2017 draft results, his stats don't count.

[bird]

My prediction, for the two cents it's worth, is that Royce Lewis will have the highest cumulative WAR when all is said and done, and it won't even be close.

[DocBauer]

Getting 2 or 3 solid, quality ML players out of any draft is considered a victory. Not just guys who make it, and get a cup of coffee...although that in itself is quite an accomplishment...but 2 or 3 honest to goodness contributing members of your team for at least a few seasons. 

Lewis still has a chance to be pretty special, and I believe he will be. Ober looks very good and should be part of the rotation for at least a few years to come. Enlow started a little slow, but not bad. He was starting to flash when his elbow gave out. He was pretty mediocre in his first season back in 2022. Right now, still only 24yo, he's starting to look like he was pre-injury, and like the HS pitching prospect they hoped he might be. If he continues on his current trajectory, he might finish the season at AAA. That puts him in discussion as being one of the top 8-9 rotation options for some point in 2024. That's a start! You have to get there before you can stick there! 

Enlow makes it, in whatever capacity, and sticks, the draft looks even better. He'll probably get a shot, and the rest is up to him. But it's just impossible to predict the future when SWR, Balazovic, and Festa are also factored in, not to mention FA and trades and re-signs. But he's back on track to potentially make it.

[Doctor Wu]

Well, the jury is still out, but I think Lewis is going to end up looking look a good pick. Maybe not a great one, but one they won't regret. But still ... going back to that year, I was really hoping they would choose a pitcher with that pick, and I still feel that was a lost opportunity. Kyle Wright, although injured right now, won the Cy Young last year for the Braves, and I think he will be an ace for a long time. Hunter Greene is starting to look good with the Reds, and even Gore looks like a keeper. Hey, this is all hindsight stuff, but when all is said and done, I'm comfortable with having Lewis. 

[Brandon]

If Lewis can turn in a solid 5/6 seasons with the Twins and Ober keeps pitching as a solid 3/4 starter and Enlow can atleast become a solid reliever if not 5th starter then the draft would be a huge success.  The jury is still out but we know who is likely to provide the value.  I hope Contreras and Bechtold get chances with us as a back up.  Or a fill in for injuries so they can get some chances.  If they play in the minors with us for years I hope they can atleast come up for a few at bats.  This is one thing I really liked about past Twins teams was giving some players chances who were on the team in the minors a long time.

[jmlease1]

On 5/17/2023 at 6:45 AM, Doctor Wu said:

Well, the jury is still out, but I think Lewis is going to end up looking look a good pick. Maybe not a great one, but one they won't regret. But still ... going back to that year, I was really hoping they would choose a pitcher with that pick, and I still feel that was a lost opportunity. Kyle Wright, although injured right now, won the Cy Young last year for the Braves, and I think he will be an ace for a long time. Hunter Greene is starting to look good with the Reds, and even Gore looks like a keeper. Hey, this is all hindsight stuff, but when all is said and done, I'm comfortable with having Lewis. 

Kyle Wright finished TENTH last season for the NL Cy Young. He had a nice season, but was nowhere near contending for the Cy. he got a couple of votes (a 4th and a 5th), that's it. Doesn't really look like an ace yet.

[Doctor Wu]

On 5/23/2023 at 9:48 PM, jmlease1 said:

Kyle Wright finished TENTH last season for the NL Cy Young. He had a nice season, but was nowhere near contending for the Cy. he got a couple of votes (a 4th and a 5th), that's it. Doesn't really look like an ace yet.

Oops! Thanks for correcting that. For some reason I had it in my head that he won the award. He DID win 20 games last year, but obviously he didn't win the Cy Young. And it won't happen this year either due to his latest injury.