It's Time for More Ryan Jeffers

[Ted Wiedmann]

Even for a defensive specialist, Christian Vazquez's performance at the plate has left much to be desired. 

Image courtesy of © Rhona Wise-USA TODAY Sports

Christian Vazquez is currently on pace for his worst offensive season since 2018, where he hit .207/.257/.283 with a paltry 42 wRC+; Vazquez's current line of .214/.290/.250 with a 57 wRC+ hasn't inspired much confidence. On the other side of the catching tandem, Ryan Jeffers has looked reinvented this season. With career bests in OBP, SLG, wRC+, and wOBA, the Twins' catching rotation of 65/35 Vazquez to Jeffers' playing time split may need some altering. 

Vazquez has never been a feared hitter in a lineup. He has one non-shortened season with a wRC+ over 100 (102 in 2019) and has four seasons with a wRC+ under 80. The most troubling part of Vazquez's struggles isn't that this type of performance is unprecedented for him, it's that he may have made an approach adjustment at the plate, and so far, it has backfired. 

Vazquez, throughout his career, has been a low-walk/high-contact player that hasn't hit for much power. However, Vazquez has cut down his swing rate on both pitches outside and inside the strike zone this season. The good news is Vazquez's chase% is significantly lower than it has been in his career, leading to a career-best BB%, but the bad news is he's sacrificed a good amount of contact without adding power. 

Looking at both zone-contact and chase-contact rates on Baseball Savant, Vazquez has experienced alarming drops in both numbers. A zone-contact% of only 76.8% is almost 10% lower than his career average at 86.6% and has fallen below the league average of 82%. Vazquez has also seen a similar drop in his chase-contact%, with a career-worst 54.9% compared to a career average of 70.4%. Again, he has fallen below the league average mark of 58.2%. 

If Vazquez showed flashes of power, contact rate dropping is less of a concern, but it's been the opposite case thus far. Vazquez is seeing his lowest average exit velocity since 2017 and according to Statcast, has yet to barrel a single pitch this season. I don't need a blue dot to tell me a barrel% of 0% is the worst in the league. 

Comparing raw production numbers to Ryan Jeffers, it seems like a no-brainer that Jeffers should start eating a majority of the playing time, but Jeffers' .828 OPS might be fake news. His .273/.373/.455 on the surface is all-star-level production from Jeffers, but his quality of contact would say it's not sustainable. 

With only 50 plate appearances or so in, Jeffers has career-worst numbers in expected batting average (.200), expected slugging (.365), hard hit% (40.7%), average exit velocity (87.7), and barrel% (11.1%). I should also point out that Jeffers has the best BB% of his career (11.8%) and still has more extra-base hits than Vazquez, despite roughly half the plate appearances. 

Even if Jeffers is due for some heavy regression, his expected slash line is still better than what Vazquez has been. Jeffers provides an added dimension of power that Vazquez doesn't have. If Vazquez's contact rates have dropped below league averages, he loses his advantage over Jeffers at the plate. 

Perhaps Vazquez deserves the benefit of the doubt. After all, he is a two-time World Series champion and could be adjusting to a new home. Vazquez is still following through on his heralded defensive value (despite some ugly throwing errors), with his pitch framing ranking in the 76th percentile on Statcast and pitchers having only a 3.26 ERA when throwing to him. 

Unfortunately, a playing time controversy arises when the team is struggling to score runs, and you're being out-hit by your backup. While not supported by peripheral numbers, at some point, Ryan Jeffers should start to eat into Vazquez's innings and plate appearances if both players continue their current trends. I would like to see the Twins to implement a more 50-50 split for the catching duo moving forward. 

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[mikelink45]

Vasquez has the benefit of a new three year contract.  He will be around and he will be starting a lot of games.

[Jocko87]

It feels like Vazquez is playing all the time but the starts split (26/14) is about what we expected preseason.  I was surprised when I looked it up.  Jeffers is getting plenty of run.  I wouldn't expect him to him this poorly all year and his receiving seems to be paying dividends for the staff.  Of the two, Jeffers is the one who will get the better hitting matchups in the split and its showing. 

I think the mix is about right and we will have to roll with it. 

[jkcarew]

It’s a weird place to be in when both catchers swing right-handed and the better defensive catcher is the weaker hitter.

I don’t know exactly where the threshold is for Vazquez’s offense before the defensive advantage is negated. I do know that I’d at least try to start Jeffers against all lefties (didn’t start against Smyly)…just based on the HR/XBH potential that presents.

[jorgenswest]

I couldn't disagree more. Our understanding of the meaning of those stats moving forward is very different. I think slash stats are virtually meaningless at this sample. At this point they offer no support for Jeffers being the better hitter moving forward.

Did you know that Vazquez has a better DRC+ than Jeffers (81 vs 76) according to Baseball Prospectus? That measure factors in quality of opposing pitchers and quality of batted ball contact. 

They both perform better against left handed pitching over their careers but Vazquez has seen very little left handed pitching this year.

I wish that slash stats were not available until much later in the season. They should not be used in support of any decision about moving forward with playing time or the line up. I wish that they weren't so heavily relied upon by broadcasters and writers.

 

 

[Ted Wiedmann]

52 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I couldn't disagree more. Our understanding of the meaning of those stats moving forward is very different. I think slash stats are virtually meaningless at this sample. At this point they offer no support for Jeffers being the better hitter moving forward.

Did you know that Vazquez has a better DRC+ than Jeffers (81 vs 76) according to Baseball Prospectus? That measure factors in quality of opposing pitchers and quality of batted ball contact. 

They both perform better against left handed pitching over their careers but Vazquez has seen very little left handed pitching this year.

I wish that slash stats were not available until much later in the season. They should not be used in support of any decision about moving forward with playing time or the line up. I wish that they weren't so heavily relied upon by broadcasters and writers.

 

 

Fair to criticize slash lines, and Jeffers lack of quality contact is addressed.

However, Vazquez is struggling at the things he's supposed to be good, mainly high contact rates, and has a track record of very weak offensive seasons. At his peak he's a league average hitter and there are no offensive statistics that suggest he's been even close to that. 

[jorgenswest]

Just now, Ted Wiedmann said:

Fair to criticize slash lines, and Jeffers lack of quality contact is addressed.

However, Vazquez is struggling at the things he's supposed to be good, mainly high contact rates, and has a track record of very weak offensive seasons. At his peak he's a league average hitter and there are no offensive statistics that suggest he's been even close to that. 

They are both below average. Likely 15-20% below average. The stats do not support Jeffers being a better hitter than Vazquez moving forward this year. Vazquez is the superior defender. If the Twins are up against a quality starter I wouldn't give either a good chance to have an impact. They will need that superior game caller to keep that game close. It may be how the Twins are finding games for Jeffers. They get him in against a lefty or they give him the game against the poorer pitcher in day game after night game situations. Vazquez' stats are very skewed by the quality of opposing pitcher and the small ratio of plate appearances against lefties for which his OPS was 148 points greater last year.

I am not here to defend Vazquez as a hitter though. I am here to argue that Jeffers' slash stats thus far do not support him being a better hitter going forward this season. If the Twins are interested in winning more this year it is not yet time for more Ryan Jeffers.

[Ted Wiedmann]

12 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

They are both below average. Likely 15-20% below average. The stats do not support Jeffers being a better hitter than Vazquez moving forward this year. Vazquez is the superior defender. If the Twins are up against a quality starter I wouldn't give either a good chance to have an impact. They will need that superior game caller to keep that game close. It may be how the Twins are finding games for Jeffers. They get him in against a lefty or they give him the game against the poorer pitcher in day game after night game situations. Vazquez' stats are very skewed by the quality of opposing pitcher and the small ratio of plate appearances against lefties for which his OPS was 148 points greater last year.

I am not here to defend Vazquez as a hitter though. I am here to argue that Jeffers' slash stats thus far do not support him being a better hitter going forward this season. If the Twins are interested in winning more this year it is not yet time for more Ryan Jeffers.

I think there are stats that support Jeffers being a better hitter this season. Both players have been struggling mightily at what they have traditionally provided at the plate. Vazquez is displaying swing and miss that's unprecedented for him and Jeffers is having career lows in barrel% and launch. 

I believe more in Jeffers bounceback in hard contact than I do in Vazquez recovering his contact rates. I also think the difference in defense between the two isn't significant. 

[Trov]

The main question that needs to be asked, is what vazquez gives you behind the plate, defense and game calling wise, is it worth the difference in offense?  Maybe for games with Gray Jeffers should always catch, because Gray calls his own.  Maybe for games where the starter relies more on the catcher to guide them along Vazquez has more to offer.  

[Ted Wiedmann]

3 hours ago, Trov said:

The main question that needs to be asked, is what vazquez gives you behind the plate, defense and game calling wise, is it worth the difference in offense?  Maybe for games with Gray Jeffers should always catch, because Gray calls his own.  Maybe for games where the starter relies more on the catcher to guide them along Vazquez has more to offer.  

For what it’s worth I don’t think there’s a huge difference defensively between the two 

[umterp23]

Vazquez superior defense isn't that superior and for game calling, how do we measure something like that?  I have no idea.  In the other post about Jeffers, I summarized it as such for games they have started:

So everyone makes it sound like Vasquez is so much better than Jeffers on defensive side and or calling a game:

Vasquez - 15 wins / 12 losses as starting catcher, 8 assists, 2 DP's, .986 Fldg %, 4 - 18 caught stealing for .222 CS %, ranked 18th in MLB in catching defense category

Jeffers - 10 wins / 8 losses as starting catcher, 5 assists, 2 DP's. 1.000 Fldg % - 5 - 12 caught stealing for .417 CS %. ranked 14th in MLB in catching defense category

So it looks like Jeffers isn't as crappy as majority think on the non-hitting side of the position.  Quality backup that has given way to a $10MM starter.  Jeffers has earned more playing time than just being a get-away day catcher as he is positioned now.  

By no means is he the weakest link or catcher position is weakest link on the team at the moment.  For some reason wins don't add up to team total so maybe Vasquez had a DH spot in there somewhere.  One can say small sample size for Jeffers but he hasn't been brutal behind the plate.  Calling the game is part of the battle, pitchers executing is the other half based on pitch selection.

Go Twins! 

[saviking]

18 hours ago, Trov said:

The main question that needs to be asked, is what vazquez gives you behind the plate, defense and game calling wise, is it worth the difference in offense?  Maybe for games with Gray Jeffers should always catch, because Gray calls his own.  Maybe for games where the starter relies more on the catcher to guide them along Vazquez has more to offer.  

That's a really good point about Jeffers starting when Gray is pitching. I also would like to see Jeffers more because he has shown more power throughout his short career. I still think Jeffers can develop into a significantly better hitter over time.

[joefish]

I like Vasquez behind the plate.