Would You Do This Trade With The A's?

[Mike Sixel]

I'll grant Lewis has a great ceiling, but man, that floor....

Martin hit at AA in his first full season in pro ball, Lewis hasn't hit that well at any level, has he?

IMO, Martin is a at least 2-3 WAR player in his ok years, and a 3-4 WAR player for at least several years. You better be 100% right when you trade him, because that's a good MLB player.

[Cap'n Piranha]

Right now the Twins are good on every position except 3--SS, C, Rotation (although it should be noted this doesn't mean it isn't possible to upgrade at other positions, an upgrade will just be more expensive for less return).  To that end, the Twins should not be trying to acquire anyone who doesn't play one of those 3 positions unless the deal is just too good to pass up.  For me, I don't think Chapman fits that bill--I'd rather get Manaea AND Montas if we're going to get two guys from the A's.

[DJL44]

I want to trade with the Reds again. See what it takes to get Luis Castillo.

[Dman]

26 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Larnach has no value, IMHO. Baseballtradevalues may show some, but all it will take is one look at his advanced metrics for any team to say "no way" on placing significant value on Larnach. AA stats don't matter when you can't hit any MLB breaking or offspeed pitches.

I don't necessarily disagree and you dig into the stats far more than I do.  Still the OP was based on the Trade Values site and I based his value there into the discussion.  Not that the A's would be interested but he has value and would be someone that I feel could be used without hurting the Twins too much.

Although he looked absolutely lost by the end of his time at MLB ball, I mean he couldn't even seem to hit fastballs in the end or have an idea what the ball was going to do at the plate.  It was his first crack and I think he will do better but will have to wait and see.  The majors is a hard level lot's of guys sink instead of swim.

[Heistyman]

I'm thinking after the trades this week that we go into full rebuild mode.  Although I'm not sure that Falvine would handle that well.  So no to trading prospects for Chapman and Manaea,

[Mike Sixel]

17 minutes ago, Heistyman said:

I'm thinking after the trades this week that we go into full rebuild mode.  Although I'm not sure that Falvine would handle that well.  So no to trading prospects for Chapman and Manaea,

That would make the Petty/Gray trade kind of weird.

[Cap'n Piranha]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

That would make the Petty/Gray trade kind of weird.

Unless Falvine think they can make Gray look like Berrios for 4 months, and flip him for another AM/SWR package at the end of July.  Normally I would say that's just crazy, but it sure seems like Falvine definitely believe in their ability to develop pitching, given their total lack of activity in FA prior to the lockout.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Unless Falvine think they can make Gray look like Berrios for 4 months, and flip him for another AM/SWR package at the end of July.  Normally I would say that's just crazy, but it sure seems like Falvine definitely believe in their ability to develop pitching, given their total lack of activity in FA prior to the lockout.

I've thought about this, too. It's not the worst strategy we've ever seen a Twins FO execute. The Reds are just giving people away right now (literally, they gave Wade Miley away for nothing) so in strict asset management terms it's an interesting bet to make that you can flip some of their players at the deadline for more if you're willing to eat the first half of their salary (and why shouldn't the Twins be willing to do that?). It's not a strategy I'm a fan of right now since they can't convince me they don't have money to spend to build this team into a pretty decent club before April 7, but it could pay off if they're able to get him to a 3.50-3.75 ERA in a better pitching environment and flip him at the deadline for a couple more prospects. I hope it isn't the plan, but I won't write it off as actually being the plan.

[Mike Sixel]

10 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

Unless Falvine think they can make Gray look like Berrios for 4 months, and flip him for another AM/SWR package at the end of July.  Normally I would say that's just crazy, but it sure seems like Falvine definitely believe in their ability to develop pitching, given their total lack of activity in FA prior to the lockout.

I think studies show this kind of thing almost never happens. That teams sign or trade for guys in the expectation of later trading them for more. but sure, that is one possibility. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I think studies show this kind of thing almost never happens. That teams sign or trade for guys in the expectation of later trading them for more. but sure, that is one possibility. 

Completely agree that I don't think it's what is actually happening.  But if the true motivation behind trading for Gray was to compete in 2022, then turning around and trading Donaldson and IKF makes zero sense, unless it's to clear payroll space.  As there are only two players left who would require anything close to the amount of payroll space now available, I have to think the plan, when trading for Gray, was to sign Story or Correa (most likely Story).  If that's the plan, then stop trying to be cute, and just make his camp a Godfather Offer, otherwise this entire offseason has been pointless at best, or an unmitigated disaster at worst.  To wit, if they don't sign Story/Correa, the Twins in effect just traded Garver, Donaldson, and Rortvedt for Urshela and Sanchez.  That is a fireable offense, IMO.

[weitz41]

 

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Why would people rather have Lewis than Martin? Which one hit well last year, in his first full season in baseball, in AA? I really don't get it. 

I’d rather have Martin. Which is why I put Lewis in my trade offer. I think Lewis has more upside but believe Martin has a much higher floor.

[Heistyman]

I see a story at mlbtraderumors that the White Sox are talking trade with the As for both Montas & Manaea.  We better have a good deal in the works or find another dance partner as the White Sox want a ring badly.

[nicksaviking]

10 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Why would people rather have Lewis than Martin? Which one hit well last year, in his first full season in baseball, in AA? I really don't get it. 

Is Martin’s ceiling something like Luis Castillo? If he’s got no power upside I’d rather roll the dice with Lewis even if the bust potential is higher. Martin might be a solid floor player, but if he can’t knock it out of the park, he’s not the kind of talent that’s otherwise unaffordable on the free agent market.

[Doctor Gast]

As good as Chapman is at 3B we have a log jam there. We need to aim higher at SP Montas and forget about Chapman and Manaea. I wouldn't go for it and I don't think that OAK would go for it either because they can get so much more for of them individually than what you are proposing.

Lewis trade value around the league is very low and he's our best back up at SS at this point he is a true super utility player which add much needed depth at keypositions so he should not be considered in a trade.  Besides I believe in him and eventually he'll become a MVP .

[Otto von Ballpark]

Blue Jays, A’s Finalizing Matt Chapman Trade

 

[bean5302]

I agree with most of the viewpoints I've seen on Lewis. He's a total wildcard. I also think Lewis' stock will likely swing wildly in his first 2-3 months of the season. If he looks like the stud his althleticism projects, he'll rocket to one of the top prospects, if not the top prospect in baseball across the board for mid-season grades. 

If Lewis performs like his last season in AA, his stock will fall off a cliff.

My point on all this is Falvey was hired to develop players from the farm system with the promises of advances in analytics following through to player development. We've seen absolutely nothing from any of Falvey's draft picks at the MLB level and this is year 6 with virtually all his first round picks being traded away or precariously close to "bust" status. The Twins were one of the oldest teams in baseball last year. He's got one year to put up major results in my opinion. If he's punting on Royce Lewis, I don't think his drafts remaining in the farm system have enough talent to save his job at this point.

[Glenn 718]

Why not play Lewis at shortstop for at least 40 games and see what you got.  Spend the money on starting pitching.  If you bet every Twins game over this year you will make a bundle. They can score and this pitching staff is as bad as it gets.  Dylan Bundy?  You have to be kidding me

[tony&rodney]

The TD chart below shows where the team sits now. Adding Story, Manaea, and Montas would all fit beneath $130.

At this point, one must consider that the new budget is  $100 million or less and this makes additions complicated.

Sano, Sanchez, Gray, Bundy, Rogers, Duffey, and Thielbar can all come off the books at the end of the season or sooner. Polanco, Urshela, and Kepler could return some decent prospects in trade. Buxton has a no trade in his contract but could be tempted by a move to Atlanta. 

A large number of posts have commented on the need to let the prospects pitch and mentioned that it was fully necessary to clear JD from the books. Perhaps the Twins need to be as savvy as the A's and move their players now in order to become more competitive in a new window, 2025-2027. Unless the Twins add the players in my first line, the team looks to be setting up for difficulties. My larger point is that our view of a budget may be off by $30 million or more. There are realistically very few players left worth trading for and really only one free agent still available. We will find out soon what The Plan was all along.