Justin Morneau

[stringer bell]

I seem to be one of the few who is not enthusiastic about Morneau remaining a Minnesota Twin. If he is good or great, he isn't going to want to sign a new contract, if he is less than that, the Twins won't offer one. After having his series of injuries, I think the Twins would be justified to be very reluctant to sign him to a long-term deal and I doubt Morneau will accept less than three more years from this organization. Add to this that the calendar is not his friend. He will be wearing his age on his back in the first year of a new contract which, I think, further diminishes his value. Morneau has looked good this spring, but the injuries and the age tell me that he won't get past the trading deadline as a Twin. This is particularly true is the Twins feel they have a cheaper acceptable alternative with Parmelee as the first baseman.

[jokin]

All it would take is an injury to Encarnacion or Lind laying an egg at DH for the Blue Jays to come a calling. I think they think this is their year and be willing to absorb the remainder of the contract, and they would probably lay down an attractive offer for Morneau besides, Morny's already hinted fondly at closing out his career in Canada.

[joepaMN]

Morneau has also stated strongly that he wants to keep playing here. More so than playing in Toronto, which is nowhere hear his home in British Columbia. If his contract demands are over the top (4+ years, or more $ than he makes now), than they probably should trade him. But if they could extend him for 2 or 3 and he shows continued improvement and health this season, I'd be stoked to see him stick around.

[cmathewson]

1. He wants to win.

2. He wants to win

3. He wants to win

4. He wants to stay here

 

If the Twins want to keep him (and I think they should at least try unless they're blown away by an offer), they need to convince him they can win. That likely means getting some better starters in here. Help is on the way with Gibson and Meyers, but will it be too little, too late? Ca c'est la question, eh?

[Brock Beauchamp]

As much as I like Justin, he only partially controls his future with the Twins. Even if he posts a nice comeback year, a lot is riding on how Parmelee, Hicks, and Arcia perform in 2013. If Parmelee posts an .800 OPS (I don't think it will happen, but it's possible) and one or more of the outfielders performs well, Justin may be left on the outside looking in.

 

Of course, the team might also choose to trade Willingham instead. Too many variables at this point to predict where Justin will end up.

[mudcat14]

He's only 31. If his health really has returned to pre-concussion form, there is no reason why he can't play 1B/DH for another 4-5 years at peak performance levels. He's 1 & 1/2 years younger than Pujols, in better shape and capable of similar production (albeit not as consistently.) He'll command about half the money & half the term. If he proves he's back over the first months of the season as many are hoping, you extend him before the he hits the market. Period! I know people say that they're not gonna negotiate during the season, but if you plop down a 4-year offer @ $15-16m per, he takes it.

[Halsey Hall]

I seem to be one of the few who is not enthusiastic about Morneau remaining a Minnesota Twin. If he is good or great, he isn't going to want to sign a new contract, if he is less than that, the Twins won't offer one. After having his series of injuries, I think the Twins would be justified to be very reluctant to sign him to a long-term deal and I doubt Morneau will accept less than three more years from this organization. Add to this that the calendar is not his friend. He will be wearing his age on his back in the first year of a new contract which, I think, further diminishes his value. Morneau has looked good this spring, but the injuries and the age tell me that he won't get past the trading deadline as a Twin. This is particularly true is the Twins feel they have a cheaper acceptable alternative with Parmelee as the first baseman.

 

You certainly do. And I'm probably the strongest supporter of not trading him and trying to extend him. That was the first thing I planned on letting TR know this spring. His answer was "do you want the Morneau of last year? He's got to do better than 50 some rbi's" I mentioned how he was hurt last season, plays with injuries, etc. And that he's healthy this year and will have a great season. TR hopes so.

 

For one thing, I can't see any way you can get anything even close to acceptable in a trade. Forget money, I mean players. I don't want more prospects, you've got a former MVP, a great glove, and a ton of potential for the next few years in Justin. Plus a great guy in the clubhouse and in Minnesota. He'll save a number of errors from 3rd base this year, besides the rest of the infield. And that goes forward also. I do think he'd like to stay here also, and just may take less money to do so. For sure he'd like to stay with Mauer. You just can't go get another Justin Morneau, and he's the one to build around for the future. I just can't see any plusses in trading him, only positives in keeping him. I hope he has a big year, and forces us to extend him here where he belongs.

[SweetOne69]

He's only 31. If his health really has returned to pre-concussion form, there is no reason why he can't play 1B/DH for another 4-5 years at peak performance levels. He's 1 & 1/2 years younger than Pujols, in better shape and capable of similar production (albeit not as consistently.) He'll command about half the money & half the term. If he proves he's back over the first months of the season as many are hoping, you extend him before the he hits the market. Period! I know people say that they're not gonna negotiate during the season, but if you plop down a 4-year offer @ $15-16m per, he takes it.

 

I agree with this. Also the Twins could protect themselves by front loading the contract to account for the possible diminishing returns on the later years of the contract.

[Mr. Brooks]

He's only 31. If his health really has returned to pre-concussion form, there is no reason why he can't play 1B/DH for another 4-5 years at peak performance levels. He's 1 & 1/2 years younger than Pujols, in better shape and capable of similar production (albeit not as consistently.) He'll command about half the money & half the term. If he proves he's back over the first months of the season as many are hoping, you extend him before the he hits the market. Period! I know people say that they're not gonna negotiate during the season, but if you plop down a 4-year offer @ $15-16m per, he takes it.

 

Capable of similar production as the best right handed hitter of our lifetime?

Pujols has put up 11 seasons of .900 OPS or higher, and 8 seasons of 1.000 OPS or higher.

Justin has done .900 one time (his MVP season), and has never come close to a 1.000 season.

Justin's MVP season would have ranked as Pujols 11th best season, by OPS.

Justin is a very good hitter, when healthy and on, but no, he's not capable of similar production as Pujols.

And as a bonus, Pujols has also played at least 143 games every year of his career.

[nicksaviking]

Morneau and the Twins may find themselves back together next year due to the new compensation rules. If Morneau is putting up terrific numbers, surely the Twins could/would/should move him at the deadline for a nice return. However, if he is having a nice year, but not outstanding, the Twins may not be able to get what they expect he is worth. In that case they may very well keep him and give him a qualifying offer after the seasonwhich would entitle them to a draft pick in the JO Berrios range.

 

However as we saw this offseason, Kyle Lohse was good, but not attractive enough to get another team to forfiet a draft pick and Adam Laroche reluctantly took a deal from his orignal club. Instead the Nationals traded the guy who would have been his successor at 1B.

 

Like it or not, the odds of Morneau in a Twins uniform next year are probably higher than we expect maybe 20%. If he is still a Twin in August, the odds go up quite a bit.

[Craig in MN]

I'm very hesitant of extending Morneau. There's too many age & injury & decline questions to make it worth signing him to a big contract. There's some hidden things like just how terrible he is against lefties the past couple years (absolutely Butera-ish). How much would most teams want to pay an aging platoon first baseman with a lot of injury concerns?

 

And if he's bad enough that he'll sign for a cheap contract, I think it would be time to move on too, as his reputation would get him playing time when he doesn't deserve it. There's a window where I'd resign him if he signs for between $4 & $8 million per year for a year or two where he'd fit, assuming Parmalee doesn't seem like a sure thing starter.

 

Another plausible situation for him staying a Twin is playing pretty well for half a season and then having a new injury that makes him miss a big chunk of the season. That could scare off enough teams that he might not have any alternatives but to take a make good contract from a team that wants him back.

[Oxtung]

What are the reasons to resign him? The only reason I can think of is sentimentally driven fan loyalty. I can understand that as a reason, selling tickets and making money is obviously the ultimate point of baseball for the owners/FO. Other than that though I don't see a reason.

 

The Twins are not going to be competitive this season or next. Possibly not until 2016. So you'd be holding on to an aging first baseman for a whole bunch of losing seasons. It doesn't make any sense. The better Morneau plays, the more he'll be worth, the more he needs to be traded.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I believe that Morneau could be a huge help to this team for years. I truly expect a strong season from him.

 

However, if Parmelee hits really well and either Joe Benson or Oswaldo Arcia tear up AAA, or Plouffe hits great but cannot stay at 3B, there will be a glut in the OF and they will look to move Parmelee to 1B. Such a scenario would tempt the Twins to trade Justin.

 

Keep in mind, though, that hoping for the type of season that Morneau is capable of from Parmelee, Plouffe, Benson or even Arcia is probably not going to happen.

 

When Morneau is on he is a very difficult player to replace.

[mudcat14]

Capable of similar production as the best right handed hitter of our lifetime?

...Justin is a very good hitter, when healthy and on, but no, he's not capable of similar production as Pujols.

 

Err, ...I meant the Pujols' of the past couple years and going forward. Yeah, that's what I meant. OK. I was being a bit liberal with the word similar. But I still contend that anything near Justin's peak numbers would well be worth an extension half the length of Pujols' for about 2/3 the annual rate.

[Boom Boom]

If it looks like it's going to take more than a 2 year deal to bring him back for 2014, I say trade him at the deadline. Honestly I think that Morneau having a big season could be a bad thing if the Twins sign him to a big new deal and he goes all Travis Hafner. I don't think he's part of the Twins' next contending team.

[Guest USAFChief]

There is always room for a good hitter. The money isn't an issue, now or in the future, even if they extend him and he tanks. I think he'll stay a Twin, and I think that's most likely a good thing. The chances of Parmelee ever approaching Morneau's level of past production are exceedingly slim. Almost nonexistent.

[Mr. Brooks]

Err, ...I meant the Pujols' of the past couple years and going forward. Yeah, that's what I meant. OK. I was being a bit liberal with the word similar. But I still contend that anything near Justin's peak numbers would well be worth an extension half the length of Pujols' for about 2/3 the annual rate.

 

We'll just have to agree to completely disagree.

Even Pujols last 2 seasons were better than (2011), or comparable (2012) to any full season Justin has EVER put up, aside from his MVP season.

If you are going to put the qualifier of "going forward" in regards to Pujols numbers, then it is only fair to use the same qualifier for Justin.

Pujols is only 2 years older than Justin, and has never suffered the major injuries that Justin has, so to expect "peak" numbers from Justin, but not give the same benefit to Pujols seems a little questionable to me.

 

And if TR gives Morneau an extension for 5 years, $80 million, he should be fired on the spot, IMO.

[70charger]

I previously took the position that the most likely course of action is a Morneau trade, but what with the Lohse saga and the new CBA, I find it at least as likely now that the Twins play the wait-and-see game. A qualifying offer of one year at the end of 2013 for another year would be perhaps higher than market rate, but you won't have to overpay in years.

 

What do I think the Twins should do with Morneau? The best thing to do probably is wait and see. If he comes out of the gates on fire, we may have nothing to worry about with offering a couple or three more years at a reasonable rate. If he doesn't, and others have stepped up, the choice is made. If he's on the borderline ...well, I'll be the first to say that I'm not qualified to make that decision. I think I like Morneau as a player too much to be objective.

[mudcat14]

We'll just have to agree to completely disagree.

Even Pujols last 2 seasons were better than (2011), or comparable (2012) to any full season Justin has EVER put up, aside from his MVP season.

 

And if TR gives Morneau an extension for 5 years, $80 million, he should be fired on the spot, IMO.

 

Got me again. I made the original post without really looking at the career stats. Pujols is in another league from everyone else, as his 10-year $240mil deal would suggest. My point was that if Justin can return this year, close to the player he was from '06-10 (season averages of; .302, 31-HR, 112-RBI, .915-OPS) he would be worth extending for about 4 years at $15per. He may show some decline over that span, but as 1B who doesn't rely on speed it shouldn't be much. Paul Konerko is evidence of that.

[glunn]

I worry that Justin may always be one hit on the head away from another concussion. I love the way that he plays and believe that 2013 could be a big year for him, but if a team like the Jays is willing to "overpay" because they are in a pennant run and if Parmelee looks solid, then I think that a trade may make sense. I also like Nick's idea of making a qualifying offer if he is not traded, assuming that the Twins have sufficient doubts about a longer term commitment.

[TheLeviathan]

What do I think the Twins should do with Morneau? The best thing to do probably is wait and see. .

 

I don't think there is any other choice than that. What is curious to me is, what do they do if he is mashing the ball come July? It's reasonable to think the trade market might be limited with health concerns plus the lack of possible comp picks for mid-season trade pickups. But resigning him comes with a lot of risk of that one-wrong-hit scenario.

 

I guess I'm pulling for a surprisingly positive trade market, as much as I'd hate to see him go.