Rotation Rankings - ESPN

[amjgt]

It's an Insider article (sorry)

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/30861164/way-too-early-2021-mlb-starting-rotation-rankings

 

Twins are 14th. I might quibble a little with that, but looking at the rotations above us, it's pretty hard to justify anything much higher than 10th (White Sox are 9th). Anyway my main sticking point is the Twins write up. He says the Twins lack an ace. OK. I guess you could argue that depending on what you think of Maeda. But the writer literally didn't mention Maeda in the writeup. He mentioned Berrios as someone who could ascend to Ace-dom. He says that Bauer might have been a fit. But not a single mention of the guy that finished 2nd in the Cy Young voting last year.

 

Comments aren't available and the writer somehow isn't on social media (how is that possible, my man?), so I guess I'm suck asking you folks.... What the heck was Bradford Doolittle thinking?

[amjgt]

Worth noting: Last Week the same writer projected the Twins with the 12th best lineup (including the Cruz signing)

 

The writeup for that piece says that bringing back Cruz has nudged the Twins ahead of the White Sox for the division which is funny because he's got the Sox a solid 3-5 spots ahead of the Twins in both Lineup and Starting Staff

[jud6312]

My hunch is he doesn't think that Kenta flipped the switch from nice rotation piece to "ace" at age 32, or that he doesn't think he'll be able to sustain it in his age 33 season.

 

Given the short season and how his results were so much better than anything he's done, I'm not offended if he had those questions/thoughts.

[amjgt]

We don't know his questions/thoughts because he didn't mention him

[mike8791]

All these offseason rankings are just one man's opinion.  They are hardly worth the paper they're written on.  Just look at the PECOTA Rankings: predicts Twins 14 wins better than Sox and Cleveland 4 games better!!

 

The #14 rotation ranking means the Twins are a middle of the pack team.  How can the Sox be 5 points better without clearcut #4 & #5 starters plus two aging pitchers, Lynn and Keuchel?  I'll take the Twins starting 5 as of now any day!

 

But despite these critiques of the #14 rank, it does point to several weaknesses of the current rotation.  First, will Maeda repeat his phenomenal season over a full 162 games?  He has never done this before and so, expecting the same is certainly risky.  While Berrios, Pineda, and Happ look solid, none are in the category of shutdown pitchers needed in the playoffs.  And Dobnak is a big question mark after his late season falloff.  This staff is thin at the top, especially with the inevitable injury or two over a long season.

 

Which is exactly why so many of us this offseason have been clamoring for another significant addition to bolster the top of the rotation, making Dobnak a swing man, and providing more depth.  Doesn;t look too likely now, but lets hope the FO has not shut the books yet on the offseason.  Hope they've got the Reds and now the Dodgers on speed dial!!

[gunnarthor]

Middle of the road seems about right to me. 

[wabene]

This is exactly why i tend to avoid national sports reporting. They can't possibly have an encyclopedic knowledge of each team and they pander to the larger markets. If i want to know something about those foul dirty sox i will either read a Chicago paper or the athletic beat guy.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Twins were 5th in starter ERA last season so sure, okay.

[Brock Beauchamp]

My hunch is he doesn't think that Kenta flipped the switch from nice rotation piece to "ace" at age 32, or that he doesn't think he'll be able to sustain it in his age 33 season.

 

Given the short season and how his results were so much better than anything he's done, I'm not offended if he had those questions/thoughts.

It’s fine to expect Maeda to regress but it’s bad analysis to fail to mention him at all and/or to discard his 2020 season entirely. He made significant changes to his approach and the underlying numbers wholly support that leap in ERA.

 

For example, Kenta’s K% was something like 8th out of all qualifying pitchers (going from memory so I might be a bit off). That kind of jump isn’t accidental and indicates a big step that will stick going forward, at least in some capacity.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

To answer the last question in the last sentence of the article, I believe Bradford "Didlittle" thinking. 

[ashbury]

To answer the last question in the last sentence of the article, I believe Bradford "Didlittle" thinking. 

 

[Number3]

"The Twins were 5th in starter ERA last season so sure, okay."

Nothing about the 2020 season stat wise is relevant. The schedules were so skewed that it is impossible to make any comparisons. An interesting thing to watch will be how much the supposed "deadened ball", according to MLB, impacts pitching and the adjustments, if any, that are made.

[Brock Beauchamp]

"The Twins were 5th in starter ERA last season so sure, okay."

Nothing about the 2020 season stat wise is relevant. The schedules were so skewed that it is impossible to make any comparisons. An interesting thing to watch will be how much the supposed "deadened ball", according to MLB, impacts pitching and the adjustments, if any, that are made.

They were 11th in 2019 so still quite a bit above average once you factor in DH vs pitchers hitting.

 

The reality is that people, for whatever reason, have undervalued the Twins’ rotation for the past couple of seasons. They’ve been either good or very good the past two years.

[Thegrin]

Speculation is fun, but there is always a surprise or 2 amongst the pitches.  Too often, those surprises are not good.  I think one of our starters will be a total failure, due to health or whatever. However, our replacement starter will come from the minors and he will be a sensation.