Mackey: Low Risk or Not, Twins are Taking a Philosophical Gamble

[Steve Lein]

I'm saying that from what I've seen, Correia is a similar type of pitcher to Pavano. I'm not sure. Maybe it has something to do with the fact he's a .116 career hitter and he's frequently pulled for a pinch hitter.

 

Nope.

 

Whereas Pavano might not always give a "quality start", he was a guy that could recover and go 7 or 8 innings after giving up some runs early. Correia is not, and has never been, an "innings eater," and I find the fact that TR & Company are hoping for this to be laughable. "Innings eaters" do exactly what I said Pavano did, which is even in a "bad" start, he would pitch late into games.

 

In Pavano's best year with the Twins (2010), he threw over 100 pitches 17 times in 32 starts, and over 90 in 27 of 32 starts. Kevin Correia last year, threw 100+ pitches twice in 28 starts, 90+ in only half of those 28 starts. And the fact he might get pulled for a pinch hitter says more to me about what they expected to have happen if they sent him out for another inning, compared to saying "he didn't throw that many innings because he got pinch hit for". Take for instance another Pirates pitcher, A.J. Burnett. He threw 100+ pitches 18 times in 31 starts last year, and 90+ in 27 of 31. Most would classify A.J. Burnett as a better pitcher, right? I don't see this as a coincidence.

 

And if you look at Innings pitched during games in the same manner as I do for pitch counts above, you will see the same pattern. Correia has never gone deep into games, which is a trademark of "innings eaters" to me.

[ajstolt_09]

Its all very true, both ends of it. He MIGHT not have a chance to succeed and his career numbers would suggest that. But also, at $5 million, its not a horrible gamble for a team who coming into the off season, had 1 proven starting pitcher. Its a small gamble just like it was with Marquis last year. If it doesnt work out, it wont be a huge burden to just can the guy. And hopefully we can land Saunders, or maybe Hendricks and Gibson can impress, and we wont need this guy who has no chance to be above a number 5 starter. I would say, call Correia plan C or D...hopefully A or B materialize and work!

[FrodaddyG]

at $5 million, its not a horrible gamble for a team who coming into the off season, had 1 proven starting pitcher. Its a small gamble just like it was with Marquis last year. If it doesnt work out, it wont be a huge burden to just can the guy.

Well, except for the $5.5M he's also owed in 2014...

[GCTF]

I think I miss Dankind.

[jokin]

Pejorative? By calling you smug? Look, it's not at all classy to say "See there, I linked the dots for you, no charge." It's snotty and smug. I'm not attacking you, I'm attacking your tone. You use plenty of pejoratives throughout your post(s), and consistently condescend. Idea-dearth? Come on, man; you have no place to complain about the use of pejoratives.

 

Look, if you don't think I have any ideas, don't read my posts.

 

It's like oldnurse had a son and named him Pseudo...

[old nurse]

It's like oldnurse had a son and named him Pseudo...

Thanks, I needed to reminded I lost my son.

[ashbury]

because you want to believe that the stats tell you everything you need to know about a player.

 

Apparently you want to believe I believe that, despite my using no stats, other than games and innings pitched and this new-fangled one called "the outcome of the game".

 

Also, you threw out all those wins and losses by Pavano, but you didn't say what the score was when he left the game. Was it close? Did the bullpen make a close game not so close? What about the games he kept them in that were 2-1, 3-2, 4-3, etc...?

 

You weren't talking about the 2-1, 3-2, 4-3 games. You asserted that he had some ability to stop giving up runs after giving up five or six. Unfortunately, if you look at the results, this ability doesn't show up. In his good season of 2010, in those six game where he gave up that many runs:

 

- April 18: (L 10-5) 6 runs in the top of the third, Gardy ran him out there again in the fourth where he lasted one-third more inning and was charged with another run before Burnett came in with the score 6-3

- May 18: (L 11-2) Blue Jays scored 2, 2, 1, and 1 run in the first four innings. Gardy had seen enough and brought in Mahay to start the fifth with the score 6-1

- July 6: (W 7-6) Blue Jays scored 1 in the third and 4 in the fifth to take a 5-2 lead. Twins came back to tie it in the sixth and scored another run to take the lead in the seventh, Pavano then gave up a leadoff homer to tie it up again, and after one more batter Gardy brought in Mijares. Twins came back with another run and Rauch finished with a save

- August 19: (L 11-0) Pavano began the seventh inning behind 5-0 (two in the first, two in the third, one in the fifth), gave up two hits without recording an out to make it 6-0, Perkins came in and eventually allowed the seventh earned run to score

- September 16: (W 8-5) Pavano carried a 6-2 lead into the sixth, gave up two homers and then a double to the first three batters making it 6-4, Gardy replaced him with Mijares and Guerrier who let the runner score to make it 6-5, Twins added two insurance runs in the ninth

- September 25: (L 11-10) Going into the bottom of the fourth leading 5-2, Pavano coughed up the lead by allowing 5. Gardy let him finish the inning then brought in Perkins for the fifth. Twins scored five of their own, then allowed the Tigers to tie it, then they lost in the 13th.

 

My point is not to demean Pavano - these were his worst games in a very good season. You're the one who said he wasunusually able to battle back. Ron Gardenhire did not seem to share your confidence. I didn't locate any games that year where he gave up 5 runs in, say, the first two innings and then shot goose eggs for six or seven more.

 

And again, no arcane stats or anything. Just results from games. I approached these with an open mind, looking for evidence for what you asserted. I just don't see it.

 

This takes a lot of time. I'll let you perform your own research, from here on. Maybe you can find some magic pixie dust in Kevin Correia's game results; I hope you do because I also believe in Terry Ryan and I hope he's made a good signing.

[Thrylos]

I'll defend Terry Ryan here.

 

Yep. Terry Ryan brought many World Championships to the Twin Cities and his replacement of Bill Smith made the Twins contenders again last season.

 

I just hope that the Twins hold him accountable for the club performance but I am not holding my breath after they removed the interim tag after a 96 loss season and let him blame the 99 plus 96 on Jerry and Stelly.

[Mark_RM]

Maybe the inside info TR is referring to is that KC secretly developed a knuckleball? Second coming of RA Dickey here we come!! We won't even need his winner's attitude...

[Thrylos]

Maybe the inside info TR is referring to is that KC secretly developed a knuckleball? Second coming of RA Dickey here we come!! We won't even need his winner's attitude...

 

Dickey? You mean the guy who the aforementioned Twins' scouts and field stuff thought that he will never cut it and they cut him?

[Mark_RM]

Dickey? You mean the guy who the aforementioned Twins' scouts and field stuff thought that he will never cut it and they cut him?

 

But that was before Dickey knew how to win.

[LaBombo]

But that was before Dickey knew how to win.

 

Sweet.

[Alex]

Apparently you want to believe I believe that, despite my using no stats, other than games and innings pitched and this new-fangled one called "the outcome of the game".

 

 

 

You weren't talking about the 2-1, 3-2, 4-3 games. You asserted that he had some ability to stop giving up runs after giving up five or six. Unfortunately, if you look at the results, this ability doesn't show up. In his good season of 2010, in those six game where he gave up that many runs:

 

- April 18: (L 10-5) 6 runs in the top of the third, Gardy ran him out there again in the fourth where he lasted one-third more inning and was charged with another run before Burnett came in with the score 6-3

- May 18: (L 11-2) Blue Jays scored 2, 2, 1, and 1 run in the first four innings. Gardy had seen enough and brought in Mahay to start the fifth with the score 6-1

- July 6: (W 7-6) Blue Jays scored 1 in the third and 4 in the fifth to take a 5-2 lead. Twins came back to tie it in the sixth and scored another run to take the lead in the seventh, Pavano then gave up a leadoff homer to tie it up again, and after one more batter Gardy brought in Mijares. Twins came back with another run and Rauch finished with a save

- August 19: (L 11-0) Pavano began the seventh inning behind 5-0 (two in the first, two in the third, one in the fifth), gave up two hits without recording an out to make it 6-0, Perkins came in and eventually allowed the seventh earned run to score

- September 16: (W 8-5) Pavano carried a 6-2 lead into the sixth, gave up two homers and then a double to the first three batters making it 6-4, Gardy replaced him with Mijares and Guerrier who let the runner score to make it 6-5, Twins added two insurance runs in the ninth

- September 25: (L 11-10) Going into the bottom of the fourth leading 5-2, Pavano coughed up the lead by allowing 5. Gardy let him finish the inning then brought in Perkins for the fifth. Twins scored five of their own, then allowed the Tigers to tie it, then they lost in the 13th.

 

My point is not to demean Pavano - these were his worst games in a very good season. You're the one who said he wasunusually able to battle back. Ron Gardenhire did not seem to share your confidence. I didn't locate any games that year where he gave up 5 runs in, say, the first two innings and then shot goose eggs for six or seven more.

 

And again, no arcane stats or anything. Just results from games. I approached these with an open mind, looking for evidence for what you asserted. I just don't see it.

 

This takes a lot of time. I'll let you perform your own research, from here on. Maybe you can find some magic pixie dust in Kevin Correia's game results; I hope you do because I also believe in Terry Ryan and I hope he's made a good signing.

 

Yeah, but this information is just an accurate record of what happened. They don't tell the emotions, intangibles, or mystical connections Pavano and his teammates used (or failed to use) that won or lost the game . Perhaps the other team's wizards were just better that day and besides, if I remember it differently, your numbers don't matter.

 

/sarcasm

 

*To be clear, I understand that there are intangibles and that scouts certainly have access to information we statheads (some of us former baseball players and coaches, too) don't, but on some level, especially after 10 years in the case of Correia, I'd think they -- or their influence-- would show up in results. I also think that PIT wouldn't have demoted him to the bullpen if they thought he had these intangibles. Or, they would have traded him to another team that saw them if they, you know, actually existed.

 

@ashburyjohn, seriously, great work and research is always appreciated.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Here is how the Twins offseason has gone so far:

 

Write a Twins article bashing the Twins approach.

Write a Twins article bashing the Correia signing.

Repeat.

Can something please happen so we have something new to talk about?

 

Dear Spring Training,

 

Please come soon.

 

FDG

[old nurse]

Did those that continuously bash here do much the same at BYTO and other sites when the Twins were winning?

[Thrylos]

Did those that continuously bash here do much the same at BYTO and other sites when the Twins were winning?

 

Last time the Twins won (1991) the internet(s) was in Al Gore's mind

[twinsnorth49]

Can something please happen so we have something new to talk about?

 

 

 

FDG

 

Like signing a quality baseball player, preferably one who pitches?

[ThePuck]

When Ryan or Gardy does something worth kudos, they get kudos. When they do something highly suspect or just off the wall wacky, they get slammed. It comes with the job. They're big boys. I love how every time someone is being realistic, and the realism isn't kudos, that someone is labeled negative. Being realistic isn't always about being negative. Doesn't make anyone less of a fan...especially if they are giving a solid argument...whether or not you agree with the argument or not.

[Nick Nelson]

Here is how the Twins offseason has gone so far:

 

Write a Twins article bashing the Twins approach.

Write a Twins article bashing the Correia signing.

Repeat.

Can something please happen so we have something new to talk about?

 

Dear Spring Training,

 

Please come soon.

 

FDG

Look, I know the negativity gets old, but what do you expect? Slashing payroll and signing sub par bargain-bin players to "improve" a team that has lost nearly 100 games in two straight years is a slap in the face for paying fans. People don't enjoy getting slapped in the face.

[ThePuck]

Look, I know the negativity gets old, but what do you expect? Slashing payroll and signing sub par bargain-bin players to "improve" a team that has lost nearly 100 games in two straight years is a slap in the face for paying fans. People don't enjoy getting slapped in the face.

 

Well, some apparently don't mind at all...

[PseudoSABR]

It's like oldnurse had a son and named him Pseudo...

Burn!

[PseudoSABR]

Look, I know the negativity gets old, but what do you expect? Slashing payroll and signing sub par bargain-bin players to "improve" a team that has lost nearly 100 games in two straight years is a slap in the face for paying fans. People don't enjoy getting slapped in the face.

There's plenty positive to focus on about this offseason if one chooses too. I think most people would give the Twins positive marks for the offseason moves in total.

[LaBombo]

There's plenty positive to focus on about this offseason if one chooses too. I think most people would give the Twins positive marks for the offseason moves in total.

 

How about limiting that to positive marks for just the moves designed to improve the Twins for the future? Cleaner that way, with no need to balance future-building moves against the likes of KC and the Sunshine Band of merry back-o'-the-rotation misfits.

[Nick Nelson]

There's plenty positive to focus on about this offseason if one chooses too. I think most people would give the Twins positive marks for the offseason moves in total.

Most would give positive marks to the Span and Revere trades. I certainly would. But because they dealt away a couple quality players for some good prospects they get a free pass on the rest of the offseason? What else have they done this winter to give you the impression that they even give a damn? For the most pitching-desperate team in baseball, with $25 million in supposedly available payroll, to come away from the FA market with Correia, Pelfrey and Harden is shameful.

[Alex]

There's plenty positive to focus on about this offseason if one chooses too. I think most people would give the Twins positive marks for the offseason moves in total.

 

Most people liked the trades, but I think to actually get positive marks, you need to make solid improvements in the major league team. What this offseason hasn't come with major question marks, heck, even including the trades?

 

Worley recently had surgery,

Meyer and May may not turn out to be starters.

Every pitcher we signed is either a #5 starter or is coming off of significant injury.

They spent no money to improve other positions (middle infield?)

They now have a big hole in center (though again, I'm fine with the trades) and drastically weakened their OF defense.

 

There's no way this offseason could look positive overall right now. In two years, we could be saying it was better, but we could also be saying it was a disaster.

[ThePuck]

There's plenty positive to focus on about this offseason if one chooses too. I think most people would give the Twins positive marks for the offseason moves in total.

 

If one chooses to focus on the future, sure. No doubt. Reason to be hopeful with Meyer and May. Key word, hopeful. Nothing is sure. No way to guarantee these moves end up well. But hope...

 

When it comes to the current team though, that's where it gets dicey...and that's hard to swallow after the last two years we've had AND getting the new ballpark...the new ballpark that was supposed to stop us from cutting payroll the way we have. That's also hard to swallow when we have so many holes to fill.

[snepp]

People don't enjoy getting slapped in the face.

 

Barney Stinson approves of this post.

[PseudoSABR]

Look, I agree the Twins plan for 2013 looks pretty muddled, but they did acquire Worley and bought low on guys like Pelfry and Harden. Yes, meager given the FAs available and when combined with Correia gives a whole bucketful of meh.

 

But these moves didn't occur in isolation, by acquiring Meyers and Mays, the Twins blew away my expectations in what they'd get in future pitching assets. Especially without trading Morneau or Willingham (which is a boon toward 2013, if even a zero-sum non-move).

 

My major irritation is with those who use the Correia move (and the narrative around it) as some sort of litmus of the Twins overall plan going forward. That we should remain hopeless about the present and the future until the Twins make a group-think approved big splash (or avoid overpaying for mediocre back-end pitching). There's an undercurrent throughout this thread (and in other long threads) that the Twins don't know what they are doing and that somehow this is a perfectly legitimate and popular assessment. We all have plenty of questions about the Twins FO--if anything, this offseason gives me hope for the future even if it makes me shrug my shoulders at the present.

[ThePuck]

Look, I agree the Twins plan for 2013 looks pretty muddled, but they did acquire Worley and bought low on guys like Pelfry and Harden. Yes, meager given the FAs available and when combined with Correia gives a whole bucketful of meh.

 

But these moves didn't occur in isolation, by acquiring Meyers and Mays, the Twins blew away my expectations in what they'd get in future pitching assets. Especially without trading Morneau or Willingham (which is a boon toward 2013, if even a zero-sum non-move).

 

My major irritation is with those who use the Correia move (and the narrative around it) as some sort of litmus of the Twins overall plan going forward. That we should remain hopeless about the present and the future until the Twins make a group-think approved big splash (or avoid overpaying for mediocre back-end pitching). There's an undercurrent throughout this thread (and in other long threads) that the Twins don't know what they are doing and that somehow this is a perfectly legitimate and popular assessment. We all have plenty of questions about the Twins FO--if anything, this offseason gives me hope for the future even if it makes me shrug my shoulders at the present.

 

Well, for me, I've always felt Ryan knows exactly what he's doing...

[TheLeviathan]

My major irritation is with those who use the Correia move (and the narrative around it) as some sort of litmus of the Twins overall plan going forward.

 

What, exactly, should give us hope? Ryan is going to suddenly change his tune? Hell, people thought that about THIS offseason. It's part of the fuel for everyone's annoyance - they wanted to believe this would be different. But it's the same Ryan we've known for many years.

 

You're welcome to be hopeful about it. But to quote someone else - we have 10 years of the exact opposite, making that hope completely and utterly baseless.