Mackey: Low Risk or Not, Twins are Taking a Philosophical Gamble

[jokin]

What worries me is that TR was so defensive about all of this and the evidence that he produced to support the signing. How many times did he refer to someone telling somebody else something about "the pitcher formerly known as >"? We have always known that the Twins are a "good ole boys" group. We have watched some deserving/capable players get no chance or dumped for years, because they didn't click with Gardy or whoever. Now we are spending legit money on guys that have almost no chance of being a positive addition to the rotation. I kinda want to keep going about why ">" has no chance but really I wanted to say that we need to remind TR of his words next year when this all implodes in Early May

 

You keep on going on like this and you're liable to make yourself persona non grata amongst those in "the mythical apologists fan club'

[old nurse]

And I can give you at least a dozen who match or exceed Correia's FB speed with much better stats. But we still have an ongoing love-fest in Saunders (4.38xFIP), who has a lower 3-year xFIP than Correia (4.26xFIP).

 

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You can give me a dozen starting pitchers on the free agent market who had better peripherals, but your original claim was on speed only. On speed only Correia is average. More than likely the problem isn't when he throws a good fastball. It is when the fastball, or any other pitch for that matter, is less than perfect is the problem.

[jokin]

It could have something to do with Pavano being unhappy at how his shoulder injury was addressed by the Twins medical staff.

 

You are treading on dangerous ground, TR has assessed and addressed this "non-issue"./sarc

[Nick Nelson]

What is clear is that the Twins have a NEW approach to acquiring young high-ceiling, high-velocity arms; one they have not implemented on the major league level. Are you suggesting that the reason for the disparity is simple incompetence? Because that seems pretty glib.

 

I wouldn’t say it’s clear that this is a new approach. The Twins have sought these kinds of young arms through trade and the draft frequently in the past. Look at Francisco Liriano, Boof Bonser and Matt Garza. It’s never translated to the free agent market because they refuse to pay for those kinds of players once they’re established.

[jokin]

You can give me a dozen starting pitchers on the free agent market who had better peripherals, but your original claim was on speed only. On speed only Correia is average. More than likely the problem isn't when he throws a good fastball. It is when the fastball, or any other pitch for that matter, is less than perfect is the problem.

 

Uhh, no it wasn't, and I know you know that.

 

And Correia seems to have "less than perfect" as a rather frequent problem down pat.

[PseudoSABR]

I asked YOU to determine why they are doing what they're doing at the Major League level, you posited the original speculative surmise on "graduation".

How the heck can I do that? I hoped that the philosophy that drafted Berrios and the high-velocity relievers last year and acquired Meyer and Mays would graduate to major league transactions. I wasn't speculating or surmising; I was thinking wishfully.

[ThePuck]

Uhh, no it wasn't, and I know you know that.

 

ever feel like you're in a court of law, or having to write up a legal document?

[PseudoSABR]

I wouldn’t say it’s clear that this is a new approach. The Twins have sought these kinds of young arms through trade and the draft frequently in the past. Look at Francisco Liriano, Boof Bonser and Matt Garza. It’s never translated to the free agent market because they refuse to pay for those kinds of players once they’re established.

That's a fair point; but I think the Twins have even openly admitted that they were willing to take more chances on high-ceiling, high-velocity arms.

 

While it might not be new, it's a welcome resurrection then, and I hope it results in a tangible change in philosophical approach, because frankly there's a large gap between the 2005 arms and now.

[lightfoot789]

He went past the 6th inning 3 times last year. 3 times out of 28 starts

 

12 Wins - Obviously 12 of those 28 starts went 5+ innings andhe earned those 12 Wins!!!

 

Again - 12 is double the wins of all Twins pitchers not named Diamond

[ThePuck]

That's a fair point; but I think the Twins have even openly admitted that they were willing to take more chances on high-ceiling, high-velocity arms.

 

While it might not be new, it's a welcome resurrection then, and I hope it results in a tangible change in philosophical approach, because frankly their a large gap between the 2005 arms and now.

 

Ryan even came out and said that people have been clamoring for years to draft power arms, so he finally did it this year. When he said it int eh interview, it almost seemed like he said it with disgust

[Ultima Ratio]

I get it now, TR has envisioned KC to close games. No track record there or stats in that role, and contact that fits the role.

[johnnydakota]

I'll defend Terry Ryan here.

 

Teams are getting more aware/advanced with stats all the time. Even the Stats that Smart Baseball Fans tend to reference such as xFIP tend to pale in comparsion to the resources for a major league team. Scouting will be able to create more of a Market Inefficiency overtime. I'll hold out to the possibility there are things about Kevin Correria I can't grasp looking at stats. Could there be bad luck where he hits his spots? I can't say for certain.

 

I fully realize that this post might look stupid by the 1st of May. I just get frustrated when people assumes that General Managers go into anything with a reckless thought process.

 

The Minnesota Twins llc. put a bid in on a player from Japan , without ever seeing him play , but from watching some tapes...

and that is not reckless thought process?

[ThePuck]

12 Wins - Obviously 12 of those 28 starts went 5+ innings andhe earned those 12 Wins!!!

 

Again - 12 is double the wins of all Twins pitchers not named Diamond

 

HE earned those wins? HE did? Who was responsible for scoring the 4 or more runs in 9 of his 12 wins? Or heck, any runs?

 

The offense scores...the defense plays behind him... Wins is a team thing

[johnnydakota]

The "he's a little bit better than a fifth starter" line is so sad it's almost funny.

 

Especially considering Correia wasn't even in the Pirates' top 5.

 

Im guessing Terry ment , Kevin Correia is a little bit better then last years Twins #5 pitcher....? Blackburn, marquis,Liriano Hendriks or Pavano?

[jokin]

How the heck can I do that? I hoped that the philosophy that drafted Berrios and the high-velocity relievers last year and acquired Meyer and Mays would graduate to major league transactions. I wasn't speculating or surmising; I was thinking wishfully.

 

Ahh, I see, so another Pseudo-KC Royals-like fan- when your only reasons for optimism are full of hope and wishful thinking- I see a team in trouble for the upcoming season.

 

I showed that, at best, TR has a Chinese wall between his draft scouts and major league scouts. His trade for Meyer was when Ryan came out and said that it is "impossible" to acquire a high-end hard-thrower above Single A ball. He drafted hard throwers but didn't pony up for a Shields via trade or make a competitive offer on a decent FA SP. This directly implied that he would NEVER pay up on the FA market for the ML equivalent despite the gaping available salary space and had a definite problem pulling the trigger on a proven #1-2 starter via trade from the Twins positions of strength. (Was Span and a Top Ten prospect doable for Shields, or not? Shields days are numbered in Tampa.) See there, I linked the dots for you, no charge.

[lightfoot789]

Everybody but lightfoot seems to know that. Puck got what I meant.

 

Twins management must get what I'm saying. They signed him. The rest will be wait and see for results - regardless to all of the blogging GM hats we wear. Most of the bloggers believe that all their personal moves would result in grade A moves. And if they don't believe that - then give management a chance. I believe in TR

[Willihammer]

It could have something to do with Pavano being unhappy at how his shoulder injury was addressed by the Twins medical staff.

 

They did fire the head trainer. Maybe that wasn't enough

[edavis0308]

I believe that phrase is the very definition of "damning with faint praise".

 

Being an eternal optimist, I "trust in TR" , he apparently believes he can get something close to a 2009 year out of Correia, adjusted for the AL, which would put him well above your projections. Hopefully, he is thinking he can get a great half-season out of Correia coming into a league unfamiliar with his stuff and can deal him before the deadline Unfortunately, there are 3 intervening years of mediocrity between that year and this, coupling that with the Twins defense, 200/4.75 seems to be the projection that's too optimistic.

 

It is very optimistic, but I also believe that anything less will result in my having the 'everybody saw that coming' attitude towards it. Sad that my optimism regarding the matter is a probably unattainable 4.75 ERA. sigh.

[Boom Boom]

They did fire the head trainer. Maybe that wasn't enough

 

Found it.

Frustrated Carl Pavano will not pitch again for Twins this season | 1500 ESPN Twin Cities ? Minnesota Sports News & Opinion (Twins, Vikings, Wolves, Wild, Gophers) | Sportswire: Minnesota Twins

 

Carl didn't sound too pleased. I'm guessing that there were other issues beyond the head trainer.

[PseudoSABR]

Ahh, I see, so another Pseudo-KC Royals-like fan- when you're only reasons for optimism are full of hope and wishful thinking- I see a team in trouble for the upcoming season. I showed that, at best, TR has a Chinese wall between his draft scouts and major league scouts. His trade for Meyer was when Ryan came out and said that it is "impossible" to acquire a high-end hard-thrower above Single A ball. He drafted hard throwers but didn't pony up for a Shields via trade or make a competitive offer on a decent FA SP. This directly implied that he would NEVER pay up on the FA market for the ML equivalent despite the gaping available salary space and had a definite problem pulling the trigger on a proven #1-2 starter via trade from the Twins positions of strength. (Was Span and a Top Ten prospect doable for Shields, or not? Shields days are numbered in Tampa.) See there, I linked the dots for you, no charge.

 

Honestly, if you're going to be smug, at least attack ideas people actually have.

[jokin]

 

Honestly, if you're going to be smug, at least attack ideas people actually have.

 

I guess I'm still waiting for you to stop banging your head against the wall and come up with one.

 

Your constant penchant for perjorative indicates you are in the idea-dearth zone.

 

I directly quoted from your post, using the very phrases that indicated you are highly dependent on "hope" and "wishful thinking" regarding the Twins near future.

[gmarais66]

I assume you mean Pavano's first two full seasons with the Twins? Similar, in that he started 32/33 games and pitched 221/222 innings?

 

They weren't that similar. The first full season, 2010, he was among the top 20 pitchers in the league - not an all star but very effective, and the second best of his career. In that season, he gave up five or more earned runs six times, and the Twins were 2-4 in those games, as he "kept them in the game" to win 7-6 and 8-5 in those two games, while in the losses the scores were more like 11-2 except for one game they lost 11-10 where giving up 7 runs in 4 innings looks kind of decisive. That second season, 2011, he was far from good, and at best he might have been in the top 50 in the league - he gave up five or more runs ten times, and the Twins were 1-9 in those games, lots of 10-3 and 9-5 and 5-2 kinds of losses where he clearly didn't keep them in the game, with one 9-8 win they managed to eke out.

 

See, you want to say that the stats don't bear out what you "know", that the Twins had a shot to win when he stepped onto the mound. But there are concrete records you can check, to see whether a game-to-game claim is supported either. It's not just a bunch of complicated stats standing between you and your preferred reality.

 

You are completely missing the point, which is what most of you guys do, because you want to believe that the stats tell you everything you need to know about a player. I'm saying that Pavano is the type of pitcher, who players had confidence in to keep them in the game (whether he did it or not). More often than not he did do that. When he was on the mound, players knew they had a shot to win. Why? Because he's a tough, experienced pitcher who has that edge that he's not going to give up. You could see it in his face when he was out there on the mound. He hated losing and he wanted to succeed no matter what. Now, a guy like that gives your team confidence. You can't measure that with a stat. If you don't think that's valuable, contrast it with a guy like Liriano. You never know what he's going to do on the mound and when he gets in a jam, his confidence drains. Things compound and get ugly really fast. Over the course of time, players don't have a lot of confidence in a pitcher like that. It shows in their performance on the field. Why battle back, when Liriano will just give up another big inning? If you think this is bs, it's not. I played and coached the game for many years. There are many intangibles that aren't reflected in stats, which affect the outcome of a game and contribute to a player's value. My guess is that you never played the game and stats are all that you have to hold on to in understanding the game. If you had "hands on experience", you would understand there is so much more to baseball than stats. Also, you threw out all those wins and losses by Pavano, but you didn't say what the score was when he left the game. Was it close? Did the bullpen make a close game not so close? What about the games he kept them in that were 2-1, 3-2, 4-3, etc...?

[LimestoneBaggy]

I'd take that season too. But considering that his career ERA/FIP is already 4.50 in the NL, with a ton of time in pitcher's parks, with only one season north of 180 innings (and just one other even approaching it), I have to agree on the longshot.

 

Oh yeah, and he has to do it twice.

 

I like your benchmarks. I'll admit I've stared long and hard at his fangraphs page looking for ways to argue that he can do this. However, even a comparison of his page vrs. Marquis isn't making me feel better. Best of luck Kevin, God willing, it's 2009, Hicks is all over the park (after the first two-to-three weeks of the season), Florimon, Dozier, and Carroll have more range than we thought, and Trevor's a vaccum...sign..best of luck to you sir.

[PseudoSABR]

I guess I'm still waiting for you to stop banging your head against the wall and come up with one.

 

Your constant penchant for perjorative indicates you are in the idea-dearth zone.

Pejorative? By calling you smug? Look, it's not at all classy to say "See there, I linked the dots for you, no charge." It's snotty and smug. I'm not attacking you, I'm attacking your tone. You use plenty of pejoratives throughout your post(s), and consistently condescend. Idea-dearth? Come on, man; you have no place to complain about the use of pejoratives.

 

Look, if you don't think I have any ideas, don't read my posts.

[FrodaddyG]

Pavano's stats in his first two years with the Twins were actually pretty good, far better than anything we've seen from Correia. Not a strong comp.

Also, those years happened in, whattayacallit, the American League.

[Brandon]

I would hope that anyone who has a serious issue with signing Correia would be delighted to be wrong...cause that would mean the team was better off.

 

It also means management won't learn their lesson regarding that type of player and will feel vindicated that they were right and continue to pursue those types of players.

[ThePuck]

It also means management won't learn their lesson regarding that type of player and will feel vindicated that they were right and continue to pursue those types of players.

 

well, there's that....reminds me of a manager who tries a strategy over and over and, when it continuously fails, blames the players for not executing. When it finally works, once, it's like 'SEE, I told you!' :-)

[Boom Boom]

You are completely missing the point, which is what most of you guys do, because you want to believe that the stats tell you everything you need to know about a player. I'm saying that Pavano is the type of pitcher, who players had confidence in to keep them in the game (whether he did it or not). More often than not he did do that. When he was on the mound, players knew they had a shot to win. Why? Because he's a tough, experienced pitcher who has that edge that he's not going to give up. You could see it in his face when he was out there on the mound. He hated losing and he wanted to succeed no matter what. Now, a guy like that gives your team confidence. You can't measure that with a stat. If you don't think that's valuable, contrast it with a guy like Liriano. You never know what he's going to do on the mound and when he gets in a jam, his confidence drains. Things compound and get ugly really fast. Over the course of time, players don't have a lot of confidence in a pitcher like that. It shows in their performance on the field. Why battle back, when Liriano will just give up another big inning? If you think this is bs, it's not. I played and coached the game for many years. There are many intangibles that aren't reflected in stats, which affect the outcome of a game and contribute to a player's value. My guess is that you never played the game and stats are all that you have to hold on to in understanding the game. If you had "hands on experience", you would understand there is so much more to baseball than stats. Also, you threw out all those wins and losses by Pavano, but you didn't say what the score was when he left the game. Was it close? Did the bullpen make a close game not so close? What about the games he kept them in that were 2-1, 3-2, 4-3, etc...?

 

You make some solid points about pitchers' mentality, but I'm not seeing the connection to Correia.

 

TR says Correia is better than his numbers suggest, implying that KC's got those intangibles you speak of. But if he does have that competitive drive and bulldog mentality that Pavano was praised for, why hasn't it helped him pitch 200 innings once?

[PseudoSABR]

It also means management won't learn their lesson regarding that type of player and will feel vindicated that they were right and continue to pursue those types of players.

If it turns out they were right, they were right, and should feel vindicated. It seems that no matter how good or bad Correia ends up being he simply proves that the management was offbase in their assessment. That seems pretty ideological to me.

[PseudoSABR]

I directly quoted from your post, using the very phrases that indicated you are highly dependent on "hope" and "wishful thinking" regarding the Twins near future.

You added this. To clarify, there's no hard evidence that the Twins would use their pitching philosophy for acquiring young arms to acquire veteran arms. I simply hope that they will, a reasonable hope, if such players make a major league impact eventually. I never said my thinking about all things Twins was "highly dependent" on hope. That's an insulting extrapolation on your part of what I've said, and it's obvious to anyone actually reading the thread. (Your Sheilds rant certainly seemed misplaced to me.)

 

Look, I don't like Correia signing, but I don't believe that people who made the decision are The Stupid, so I try to understand what the FO is thinking, and I try to put that in context in both terms of the now and of the future, and I try to arrive at a nuanced assessment of any deal they make. That doesn't mean I'm a pollyannish fool. It's just hard for me to get worked up about Correia signing in a winter when we've acquired two young power arms (May and Meyers), another young mid-rotation guy (Worley), and two risk signings (Pelfry, Harden).